Road to GOP Brokered Convention 2016

[Measure_for_Measure]

Nice post adaher. That’s a viable scenario.

4. Trump wins on second ballot.

(Not mutually exclusive with number 2.)

**MfM approved post: **
Ibn discusses Kasich. I add emphasis.

@Ibn_Warraq

That makes sense with Kasich. Lots of people want him to quit because they believe him dropping out will stop Trump, but they forget he’s not playing a game called “stop Trump” he’s playing a game called “Win the Presidency”. Dropping out does nothing to help him win that game.

His plan, and only real shot, is to win Ohio, hopefully some other, get to the convention and have a brokered convention. One of the great ironies is that while Donald Trump is the only one of the four running(except maybe Cruz) that can win the first ballot, he is also the only one of the four who can’t win after the first ballot. Every other one can make a case why the delegates go for them whereas anyone not going for Trump now isn’t going for him later on.

His only shot is to get all the candidates and leaders and say “Look, you guys don’t want Ted because the establishment doesn’t like him almost as much as they’re scared of Donald and Hillary can demonize him. Marco, ok he jumped on a grenade for everyone and made Donald look bad, but he damaged his brand and that will hurt him in the general and beyond that, words alone can’t describe how much Donald hates him. Donald doesn’t like getting humiliated and if Marco is given the nomination, Donald will throw a temper tantrum and immediately run as a third party candidate just to give us and Marco the finger. As for me, well I do well in the polls against Hillary, I’m seen as the adult, I have the best reputation in the media and will be the hardest to demonize. Oh, and in case you’ve forgotten, every winning President has won Ohio except Kennedy. Guess what state I’m the governor of!”

Marco, if he wins Florida, will also be in it for the long haul for similar reasons.

Trump still has the ability to be kingmaker though, as he can threaten a third party bid. Even with sore-loser laws, he can still complicate things greatly for the Republicans. He could even split the party.

** Jan Brewer? Sheriff Arpaio? Paul LePage? **
What he can’t do is build a new third party. Trump is a great sales guy but he’s terrible at execution. Witness his string of failed businesses and failed properties like the Plaza. He would need to attract other leaders -managers who can run and provide a face for the organization. That would be hard.