I suppose this may fit in GQ but considering it is politics I am guessing here is the place for it.
I have been reading lately that Ron Paul and his cohort are managing to scoop large numbers of delegates to the Republican convention in August.
Near as I can gather if Ron Paul gets enough delegates he can put himself on the ballot at the convention. Except it seems the delegates must vote (at least in the first round) for the person who won that state’s primary/caucus.
So, it would seem, a lot of effort for little effect. Romney will be voted in as the Republican nominee for president.
What am I missing here?
FTR I am not a conservative so have no dog in this race beyond some small pleasure at seeing the republican establishment discomfited (even if only a little) and of course there is the whole politics as theater angle that this qualifies for.
The Republican National Convention will determine the nominee using a very complicated process. The conventional wisdom has been that Ron Paul wants to use the threat of disruption of the process with his delegates to secure political favors for himself and/or his son. He’s been running a libertarian movement within the GOP for years, and they don’t mind much, especially since he attracts the young demographic. But he’s otherwise ignored. This time he may gather enough delegates for some indulgences.
And ironically, if delegate they talked to on NPR this morning is any judge, they fully intend that the first vote not be clear cut, or something along those lines, so that they will then be free to vote for whomever they want. Thus, with a really really small minority of the vote, Ron Paul will become the Republican candidate.
This is a HUGE slap in the face to the “libertarian” ideals that Paul is alleged to hold, but I don’t think any of his followers have gotten that figured out yet.
Perhaps these delegates will get on the various platform committees to try to get libertarian planks voted in? They could propose things popular with the extremists and embarrass the Romney people if they try to quash them.
Or, Paul’s nomination strategy might be just as realistic as his economic policy.
Just this morning I heard on NPR a woman of Paul’s faction boasting of having successfully “infiltrated” the GOP. See entryism. (A tactic, up to now, mostly associated with Trotskyists.)
Delegates are chosen, and are bound to cast their vote for the individual who garnered the most votes (as is proper). However, there exists the possibility that some shenanigans could go down wherein those votes, and thus the majority if the voters in a given states (say, Nevada) would then be disenfranchised by the Paul team as they happily vote for THEIR guy.
They are hoping, in essence, for an opportunity to FORCE the GOP to run with Paul. As I understand it, forcing folks to do something they don’t want to do is anathema to the Libertarian ideal.
Ok, I’m not being argumentative; I just want to get this clear in my own head.
It appears to me, from the links in the OP, that the ‘shenanigans’ is simply having more Paul people show up to the caucases/convention. Is that not the case?
From my understanding in Missouri at least, there is a primary but it’s doesn’t matter. It’s a mere formality, so the delegates chosing someone who didn’t win the popular vote wouldn’t be considered disenfranchisement.
It seems that the Paul folks are working within the system at least in those examples. I find that no more off-putting than the fact that the RNC has been ensuring that Romney will be the candidate all along.
…then it picks up speed, gathering up all the crap in it’s way while both gaining speed and losing control, until it either breaks up on its own or hits something and does a great amount of damage?
There is no way Paul can derail Romney’s nomination; IMO Paul is gathering delegates in order to influence the platform. Also, by threatening to turn the televised convention into a messy affair, he may be angling to get his son Rand a more prominent position in Tampa–maybe a prime-time speaker’s position a la Pat Buchanan in 1996.
In these states, most of the delegates are bound to vote for Romney on the first ballot, no matter who they really support. They only get to vote for Paul if the first ballot isn’t conclusive, and if the process works the way it’s set up the first ballot should be conclusive for Romney. It’s suggested that they plan to somehow disrupt the orderly first ballot to then free themselves to vote for Ron Paul.
In most states, the delegates are pledged to vote for a specific candidate by the primary results. However the actual people who will be delegates to the convention are chosen separately. Processes vary from state to state, but it is quite possible for losing candidates to get more of “their people” chosen as delegates. The delegates do more than just cast a vote for the nominee; they vote on platform planks, choose the convention chair, and can potentially drive the events of the convention week. If they make enough noise they can, say, tactically delay the nomination until a second/third round ballot or (in an extreme case) scrap for a floor fight.
Paul’s delegates will be less likely to fall in line if there are enough of them to foul up the party’s carefully-choreographed coronation of Romney. At the very least their support is a bargaining chip Paul probably needs to remain relevant in the party.
Well . . . only when it’s a government doing it, I think. This is more in the nature of a businesscritter using his positional advantage to squeeze another businesscritter, a practice to which no Libertarian could object, so long as he does not break the law doing it (and even then . . .).
Is that really that attractive to them? If the Paul People managed to write the abolition of fractional reserve banking and federal civil rights into the platform, it would just make the platform even more meaningless than it already is. I guess it would be a big, loud, noisy spectacle, but it wouldn’t actually do anything (not that I think they’re above pointless spectacles).
Ron Paul has delusions of adequacy. He won’t have the delegates to get anything he wants. What winds up in the platform is what Romney wants in the platform and not a syllable more or less. Even Romney isn’t stupid enough to name Paul’s half-witted son as his running mate.