Is there any doubt this will happen?
You don’t think the reason that the West is showing no teeth here because we don’t really give a shit?
In context, insult could only be implied if I were suggesting he were a chickenhawk. Really, nothing of the kind has come up, I don’t even know whether Terr is the right age, etc., for military service anyway.
Apropos of nothing, I just finished Martin Cruz Smith’s latest Arkady Renko novel, Tatiana. At one point a (Russian) character states a large plot-relevant sum in rubles and then immediately (and automatically and routinely, without even a hint of the whatcha-gonna-do dry-jesting MCS’s Russian characters do so well) translates it into “real money,” i.e., U.S. dollars. Unless Smith has made some really critical research failure here, the Russians themselves actually say that, without thinking twice.
I do wonder whether most Americans give a shit, at any rate. Euros have more interests at stake . . . but not all of them have the same interests.
Considering what they’re used to, isn’t that kind of throwing Bre’r Rabbit in the briar patch?
Fracking the ample European natural gas reserves becomes more attractive, as does accelerating work on the Trans-Adriatic pipeline and building port capacity to accept US LNG shipments.
More of the EU is now a nervous neighbor. The impact on Russia, pretty much reliant on petrodollars, will be significant.
The show, like much of Sochi, is designed as much for domestic consumption as anything. But while it is intended to demonstrate to the Russian populus that strong Russia is back, its long term impact is likely to weaken her substantially.
Shouldn’t we try to think of every single thing that might conceivably go wrong with that, and then assume we can’t think of everything, before proceeding on that course?
In hindsight, it is clear we won Cold War I, but it is not at all so clear that it was a war worth fighting/nonfighting in the first place. There were . . . costs. And the threats were always inflated. It would have been better, probably, just to make nice and agree-to-disagree back in the Truman Admin. We still wouldn’t have a Communist world or even Europe today. Instead, the Washington foreign-policy debate was for decades after limited to “containment” v. “rollback,” no third option.
This bit on the vulnerable nature of the Russian economy from about 5 months ago.
Investors will be scared off. The EU will accellerate its wean off of Russian gas.
The Russian economy stagnating is now almost a fait accomplii. The next question is what does a Russia bent with imperialist ambitions do as its economy dives back down?
Vorwärts nach Osten!
But more seriously, I think there was a huge missed opportunity after the end of the Cold War for the US and its allies to help the ex-Eastern Bloc states transition towards a post-Communist future. Indeed it can be said it was incredibly unfortunate that the collapse of the USSR happened during the high tide of neoliberalism rather than during the New Deal/Great Society consensus era, which resulted in the West pushing Russia towards mass privatizations resulting in mass inflation and unemployment along with destroying social services and possibly even causing millions of premature deaths. As a result, Russians ended up idolizing the Soviet era where at least the economy was stable and the country was strong.
BrainGlutton, just a few short months ago you were suspended for not knowing what sort of jokes were and were not appropriate on the SDMB. It can only be hoped you’ve learned. But this sort of behavior places that hope in doubt.
I expect you to learn and to refrain from such in the future.
No warning issued, but any more such behavior will earn them.
You rang?
Are you really the same kid who was posting 5 year ago? You must be in college by now.
Anyway, I think that the opportunity was taken up by about as much as it could have been given that there was always opposition in the US. Our European allies really picked up the slack here and are doing a whole lot of business with Russia. Russia has a lot of billionaire oligarchs these days, and they are going to call their boy Putin up and give him a good talking to. Let’s see if it takes and hope it does.
Option one
Send in special forces team and assasinate Putin, live with the fall out and remind the next russian president that he can be replaced just as easily.
Option two
Assume there is nothing physical that we can do to stop the annexation, if it comes to that. Right now its just a partition of the country.
Turn up the heat in Syria, to the boil and let the cards fall may they will. Means the russians get sevastapol , but lose that naval base in syria.
Same with Venezuela, to the boiling point. Let the cards fall where they will. Once thats done, move on Cuba.
Simply cause thats where we can hit russia.
What will happen is that dip and econ sanctions will go about so far and then we will throw in the towel. China is the threat, Russia is a has been super power. I would rather not waste time on Russia, if it spurs China to roll the dice in the spratleys.
Declan
Okay, we can’t physically kick Russia out of Crimea, but what about cyber warfare? Russia has earned itself a punch in the nose, I’d think. Could the west screw with Russia on the cyber front?
The US is in the process of turning its strategic assets to the Pacific. Looks like its time our European allies united and took more responsibility for the security of their own region.
The problem with that is that we have to be seen to do something, its the rest of the world that’s the problem. Russia wins this one, it walks away with some street cred and the rest of the world starts to wonder where exactly the US red line actually is.
Declan
The US used a virus against Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows the US did it, but the US never officially acknowledged it, did they?
Yes they are widely believed to be the perps, the problem with Russia is that I would rather not see one of Russia’s nuke reactors doing funny things, as you may remember Stux did leave a very lasting foot print.
No , if you want to send a message that is seen, you sail a carrier to a certain point and launch an alpha strike, a cyber strike is a little cold war ish.
Declan
No, I would never suggest messing with nuclear reactors.
I read somewhere in the last few days that the US considered using cyber warfare against Syria’s Assad government, but decided against it because it might hurt innocents more than the regime, and invites proliferation and escalation.