Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond?

You do realise that the protests were in part because of Ukranian peoples desire to join the EU and be a normal country. Far right political parties are always going to try and capitalise on disorder, but it doesn’t make them the majority of what’s happened in the last month.

As for the Crimea situation, I say, call in the UN, get both parties to decide a plebiscite on them staying or going with Russia, if they go with Russia, good, one less burden for the rest of the country in its EU accession talks. Russia gets lumbered with something akin to Northern Cyprus which Turkey liberated/occupied.

The phrase that -Lion chose to swipe at Obama ("strangely similar") fits because it is strange how one could refer to Obama’s limited involvement in Ukraine events up to now as bumbling. That phrase sounds like a knee jerk sound bite that would not come with an explanation of what was or has been bumbled in either case.

But since -Lion strangely brought the ‘bumbling’ in Syria up, a trip down memory lane is in order:

How can it be called ‘buffoonery’ after stating that SYRIA and RUSSIA immediately agreed to do what most of the world wanted them to do for years? Turning over (and destroying) an arsenal of chemical weapons to the OPCW and UN inspectors.

I think you may be confusing the happy, smiling, peaceful pro-EU democratic protesters of last November with the right-wing insurgents who just took the government by force, after blowing off an EU-brokered peace deal the opposition signed. Who is in charge? Why should anyone believe they’re capable of honoring any peace agreement, much less abiding by any IMF austerity measures?

I’m no great fan of Obama’s but I really think it quite absurd that he’s being criticized for the ‘weakness’ of his response to the situation in the Ukraine. What on earth do they expect him to do? Send the troops in? Threaten Russia with war unless they pull out? The truth is that any American President, no matter what his political stripe, would be in the same position and be reduced to making the same noises. Putin will do as he sees fit vis-a-vis Ukraine and there’s not a hell of a lot the West can do to stop him.

Do you agree with me or Marmite Lover or neither or both on foreign policy and world affairs that have been argued and discussed. I’d really like to hear what you have to say about the subject of this thread and any comments I have posted since joining this fine institution of debate and learning.

If you agree with me on everthing… all is well… If not … what’s on your mind?

Yeah, those pesky far right radicals who have chosen a representative to be interim president, and have restored the use of the 2004 constitution. I seem to remember the Ukrainian Parliament voting near unanimously to impeach Yanukovich and try him for war crimes, hence the reason why he fled.

Let’s be truthful here, maybe, just maybe, the Russian federation, with it’s terrible human rights record, and record of terrible governance, and with a huge chip on its shoulder for losing the cold war and being bankrupt for ten years afterwards, doesn’t want to let go of it’s major punching bag, and is shown to be impotent to do anything about it (This despite the Crimea situation) and maybe, just maybe, the Ukrainians were smart enough to realise that being in the EU was a more attractive and viable option for them, considering their economy was bigger than Poland’s in 1992, and now it’s the reverse.

This EU and US conspiring against Ukraine and Russia is simply ludicrous, has it ever occurred to people that maybe we have better governments and institutions, and the Ukrainians are acting out of rational self interest?

One only has to go back and see what GW Bush and McCain and the lot could do when Putin sent the tanks through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia to deservedly crush the NATO assisted buildup of Georgian military assets after and only after the Georgian Army launched a full scale assault on South Ossetia’s residents who hold Russian Passports and the Russian peacekeeping troops who were there.

Bush and NATO and EU could do nothing as Russian war planes and tanks destroyed much of Georgia’s military hardware and then turned back after a brief stare down. Georgia lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia… probably forever because of Sakaashivillis’ stupid aggression.

If Putin has slipped some attack helicopters and hired some special ops forces to park in Crimea for a while … it will be to secure the Russian assets, sailors, and the Russians living there until the ramifications of the change in government are realized.

Then Putin will withdraw as a bargaining chip…

I thought the EU had several states going broke… taking on economically strapped Ukraine can’t be all that welcome… when clearer heads prevail. It should end up being a joint EU/Russian joint rehab effort. But we’ll see.

Obama is exactly right. The hotheads need to calm down.
Obama has had Russian support allowing rail shipments of war supplies across Russian soil into and out of Afghanistan to support our war effort there. Its a big deal. Putin did come to Obama and the world’s terms in Syria on the CW issue. Putin has aided in the Iran deal and talks.
Putin is pissed I’m sure that his PR boost coming off the $50 billion spent in Sochi for the winter games and that venue’s great success has now been overshadowed by some actions of protestors and rioters and the government in Ukraine turning to violence deepening the chaos in that critical part of the world for Russia.

Does no one remember how this game is played? Of course the U.S. can’t send troops in against Russia. Of course it can’t threaten military action. But there are lots of things the U.S. can do to put the squeeze on Russia and remind them that this kind of behavior is not rewarded.

For example, you make a statement that in light of recent events you are calling an emergency meeting of NATO to determine if any of the Baltic states need additional military support. Last year the U.S. placed its first continuously-stationed military unit in Poland. Poland and the U.S. can announce negotiations to seriously beef up U.S. military presence there. The U.S. and Poland can announce negotiations to sell Poland advanced military hardware (they don’t have to actually do it - just credibly threaten to do so).

The U.S. can announce that in light of recent Russian moves, it is reconsidering the expansion of missile defense bases in Europe.

If Ukraine agrees, the U.S. can move ‘advisers’ into the country to help ensure that the gas pipelines are protected and to verify Russian military movements. In fact, the adivsers are a tripwire - if Russia expands military operations it risks killing American soldiers, which could escalate the situation.

Then there are economic sanctions. Russia depends on a lot of western imports. And it needs to export its natural gas. Announce that in light of Russian aggression, the U.S. is setting up negotiations with the EU to consider alternate pipeline routes to move energy into Europe in case Russia starts playing hardball with Europe’s energy. In fact, what it is is an economic threat to Russia’s exports.

Strategically targeted tariffs that hurt Putin’s oligarch allies can put pressure on him. Increase Russian export restrictions on militarily sensitive equipment, and expand the list to include things that will hurt the country economically as well. Russian bank accounts in the west can be frozen.

Putin has announced that he is going to build military bases in a number of countries around the world. The U.S. can begin to use whatever leverage it has with any of those countries to put the screws to Putin’s plans.

That’s how hard diplomacy is done. There are a million little levers you can push and pull to make your opponent’s life uncomfortable without threatening military action. That was how negotiations worked throughout the cold war - often behind the scenes. The U.S. employed the same strategy with Taiwan - Every time China would get frisky, the U.S. would offer to sell ever-more advanced weapons to Taiwan. They made it clear to China that Taiwan would be defended, and furthermore that it would be armed in proportion to China’s aggression against it, so that it could defend itself even if the U.S. wasn’t there.

You don’t have to go to war - you just have to make it clear that you’re not going to put up with Putin’s aggressive stance, and if he keeps it up he’ll find himself slowly strangled economically and outmatched militarily. Russia has nowhere near the economic power of the U.S., and cannot withstand much economic pressure.

Doing nothing is how these things escalate. Saddam invaded Kuwait because he thought the U.S. would do nothing. Hitler invaded Poland because the response to his first aggressions made him think he could do what he wanted without reprisal. Japan thought that if it bloodied the U.S.'s nose hard enough the U.S. would negotiate a peace, and part of the reason it thought so was because of the loud isolationist movement in the U.S. and the refusal of the U.S. to enter the war in Europe.

A little pushback against early minor provocations can prevent the necessity of major pushback when the provocations finally become too great to ignore.

Exactly so. The Soviet Union learned that it can’t successfully wage a cold war and maintain a growing economy, and Putin can be reminded of this lesson. The west is a coalition of economic superpowers, and can make things extremely uncomfortable for the Russian hawks, without ever firing a shot.

This isn’t a game of Risk…or even of Diplomacy. A little more like a game of Monopoly, and we occupy all the good properties!

and Russia has the On/OFF tap

Historically Jews have always played BOTH sides in a conflict

Germany

The Slavs are always starting wars. It’s kind of ironic they’re some of the most anti-semetic people, too; given Hitler had them… what, second(?) in line for the ‘delousing showers’? :rolleyes:

Yes. Timely, too, given something like that would surely put the kibosh on any military budget cuts or downsizing…

Yes, that worked so well for the Sudetenland, which after all only only became part of Czechoslovakia in “something of a historical accident.” I’m waiting for someone to confidently assert that this represents Mr. Putin’s last demand in Europe, and we can look forward to peace in our time. Never mind similar “historical accidents” in Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait, and Yugoslavia.

Between this and Sam Stone’s points on well-established Cold War diplomacy above, honestly, it’s almost as if the Twentieth Century didn’t happen.

Well, this time Russia is flush with cash and the US is drowning in debt! it’s going to be interesting to say the least.

I find it interesting that the mention of offensive military aggression and non-diplomatic provocation from one nation against another does not include what happened in March of 2003 where a sovereign nation was no threat to world peace and no genocide was in progress because that invaded nation allowed the UNSC in to its hearts content to verify whether or not WMD were present.

The US UK invasion of Iraq hat ended diplomacy that was working at the time is the primary example offensive military unnecessary aggression across territorial established borders since WWIi.

And this is about what is perceived as provocation and invasion and military aggression by Putin against the bloc of nations that kicked the UN out of Iraq then bombed and invaded with ground troops and occupied the country for a decade.

Putin advised the idiot Iraq invaders at the time it was wrong.

Putin’s current ‘provocation’ into Ukraine in perspective is a reaction to the violent change in government there. What Putin is doing is reacting to what could become a dangerous and deadly situation for Russian speaking Ukrainians if things deteriorate.

A show of force may not be a bad thing oversll until the UNSC gets in contact with the new government.

But the same nations that killed diplomacy to kill people in Iraq when no danger or threat was present need to look at the logs in their eyes when pointing to the speck in Putin’s eye right now.

I agree with much of this analysis but I have reservations as to the driving need to take on Russia over Ukraine.

It made sense to take on China over Taiwan and Iraq over Kuwait because the US had financial and political investments in those parts of the world. What is the US interest and investment in Ukraine? What does the US stand to gain by strongly supporting Ukrainian territorial integrity at the risk of losing co-operative relations with Putin/Russia (as in Syria)? If parts of Ukraine fall back under Russian control (like they did in Georgia), so what?

From a world politics stage, sure, the US should make all the right noises about Ukrainian idependence and Russian non-aggression. But to actually make threats and follow through with them over this issue…???

Crimea is traditionally Russian territory. It was administered by the Ukraine S.S.R. during the Soviet era. Upon the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Crimea was left in the Ukraine basically because Yeltsin had bigger problems at the time. This is more than just Russian speakers in the Crimea, these people are ethnically Russian as well. Stalin slaughtered off the natives and moved in his own people.

The Russian military is already in Ukrainian territory, has been since the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Well, all righty then.

I agree with Sam Stone. No, we cannot fight with Ukraine. However, we do have to fight for Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic Republics. So it would be a prudent thing to demonstrate that while we will not intervene in Ukraine, we do have some leverage over the situation and we are willing to use it. Plus we must reaffirm that we will indeed protect our NATO allies, and that IS a red line.

I’m not going to condemn the administration’s response. But the COmmander-in-Chief should be doing a few more things and hopefully he will do them in the coming days and weeks if this thing escalates. American interests are potentially at stake here if this goes tits up because NATO allies border Ukraine. We need to at least get everyone in NATO and the EU on the same page and present a united front.