Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond?

[John_Mace]

@NotfooledbyW

you want to debate me.

No, I do not.

[John_Mace]

@RedFury

Memo from the White House…pay no attention to those who would point out the US invaded three sovereign nations and is attempting to overthrow the leadership in Iran, while admonishing Russia for peacefully annexing Crimea, which it has…

Meanwhile, today Iraq is embroiled in a civil war that has taken the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and created untold misery for those who survived. In addition to their loss lost 5000 soldiers and another 40,000 maimed for life while wasting over one trillion dollars. Afghanistan? Twice over – now the corner state of the poppy trade and out of the US’s hand other than beat tail. Compare that with the Russian take over of Crimea. See any difference? And you want to take them on in their own backyard? There’s a laugh that we will all regret.

Yeah, the Star-spangled blinder. Good luck with that. Or rather stop imposing your idea of justice world-wide.

Glad someone is ready to stand-up to you. And you have no balls/capability to do anything about it. But yeah, whining is fine. With crackers…

What is the position of the Spanish government on the issue of Russia and Crimea?

[John_Mace]

@NFBW

Hint: If you don’t want to debate me don’t respond to my posts and tell me I’m wrong and link your argument to meaningless words from the Pit.

I consider that a personal insult

Emphasis added. Then you should report my post to a moderator and have them admonish me.

[RedFury]

Russian sanctions as war and farce

Let’s start with the serious stuff. As Russia’s Federation Council ratifies a treaty with Crimea, concluding the formal annexation, Ukraine signs the political chapters of an association agreement with the European Union (EU). The signing of the full EU agreement will only happen later in 2014.

These are the facts on the ground. Now let’s turn to comedy hour – also known as the sanctions war.

The oh-so democratic EU has punished the democratic Crimea referendum by sanctioning 33 Russians and Crimeans with asset freezes and travel bans, according to that Magritte-style walking fiction, European Council President Van Rompuy. The EU also canceled the EU-Russia summit in Sochi on June 3. And the vast, Kafkaesque bureaucracy of the European Commission (EC) has taken time out from subsidizing European cows to prepare for “possible economic sanctions,” according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The EU is irretrievably split on what to do. Whatever it does, Moscow’s capacity to make the EU badly hurt is stronger. There may be another meek set of sanctions next week, as Merkel advertised. But that’s it.

European poodle action mirrors His Master’s Voice – as in US President Barack Obama solemnly imposing, by executive order, further sanctions on “senior officials of the Russian government.” Other US targets are private businessmen close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Only exceptionalist logic legally allows sanctions on private individuals deemed responsible for political steps taken by the country they live in. International lawyers should have thought about sanctioning the entire US population for the Bush-Cheney junta’s disaster.
Well over 60% of Americans and Europeans are against a New Cold War against Russia. Putin’s approval rating in Russia is around 75% – and arguably similar all across the developing world. Still, no one will lose money betting on the juvenile amateurism of the Obama administration. As if they and selected European minions could intimidate Moscow with some cosmetic “message.” The American sanction religion, imposed with a conquistador/slave owner fury, did destroy Iraq for years – and was supposed to destroy Iran as well. But Russia is not Iraq or Iran.

I love a man in sanction uniform

Sanctioned Russians are not exactly quaking in their made-in-London brogues. After all, the practical impact of these sanctions is exactly zero. And most people targeted have minimal direct links with the US.

The original American list included Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin and presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. They laughed it off, loudly – adding it felt like a badge of honor. The expanded list includes key Putin advisers and even some of his friends.

Obama, Iran-style, sanctioned the Bank of Russia – a minor player (less than US$10 billion in assets; compare it with giant Sberbank at $528 billion). But Bank of Russia is used by some Gazprom subsidiaries for some low-key deals – even as Gazprom owns its own bank, GazpromBank. The “message” here is that Washington is watching Gazprom.

Chief of Presidential Administration Sergei Ivanov is a key adviser on Ukraine and a top negotiator with the US, the EU and NATO. The – counterproductive – “message” implied here is that Moscow and Washington are not talking anything substantial in the immediate future. So much for the West’s “diplomatic efforts.”

Then there’s Yuri Kovalchuk, a board member of the Bank of Russia, a key business adviser and – allegedly, no conclusive evidence – Putin’s personal banker. The message here is of the “I’m gonna git you sucka” kind.

Finally, among the notables, there’s Gennady Timchenko, who has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine. He’s an energy deal operator, controlling oil and natural gas trading firm Gunvor. In this case, the “message” is that the US will target Russia’s energy deals. Message void, because the EU – which needs Gazprom badly – is not inclined to sanction Timchenko.

Other sanctioned include the head of the Federal Drug Control Service Viktor Ivanov, Chief of Military Intelligence Igor Sergun and Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin.

They are all part of the Russia-US team involved in the Northern Distribution Network – the long, across-Central Asia highway that will allow NATO to flee Afghanistan. A swift Moscow counter-attack would be to leave the Americans and Europeans hanging dry – or to close the NDN altogether…

Much more at source.

[RedFury]

@John_Mace

What is the position of the Spanish government on the issue of Russia and Crimea?

Honestly? Who gives a fuck? As if they are a major player in anything. Beyond the fact that predictably so, they are (the PP) a rather traditional extreme right-wing Party.

But hey! I’d love to see them tackle Russia. Just for shit and giggles – but of course the would bring the dreaded NATO into it.

No one’s doing shit, John, beyond talking lots of it. You simplty don’t fuckk with The Bear in their backyard as is plainly been shown.

[RedFury]

But listen to Batistuta instead, the left-wing Spaniard who has the handle on the ground.

No doubt he is ready for a Millán-Astray rebirth.

'tis to laugh.

[RedFury]

@CarnalK

You know, RedFury, I have been holding the middle ground in this debate from the beginning, imho, and I have to agree you’ve done a lot of inappropriate cheerleading in place of debate. I say this as someone who doesn’t give a flying fuck about the USA’s honour at stake.

Appreciate your well-thought input and will subscribe to your impartial newsletter.

“Middle ground”? Surely you jest.

And good at it too.

[Batistuta]

@John_Mace

What is the position of the Spanish government on the issue of Russia and Crimea?

It’s been a while since Spain really had a position on an international event - partly due to our Prime Minister being useless, partly due to the economic crisis. But the government will always be against any unilateral independence vote, whether it’s in Crimea, Kosovo, or Catalonia.

RedFury, I’m sick of the personal attacks. I’m done reading and replying to your posts.

[NotfooledbyW]

@John_Mace

No, I do not.

Then why cite the correct things I write and complain that they are wrong? You challenge my argument and then insist you have no challenge and no desire or capability to even try when I appropriately respond as I’ve done. What is up with that?

[NotfooledbyW]

@CarnalK

The Ukraine can easily say the land and military equipment that Russia has seized at least equals any debt. I bet Russia is out that money. Fairly too I might add.

That will likely occur when it’s time for the west to recognize what is done is done. We we go through a year maybe two of chicken little west driven media hysteria about the Russian Bear devouring up former Soviet Republics left and right, before the financial aspects of this transaction get worked out. In the meantime I see Ukraine continuing to be an economic and perhaps a political basket case for some time to come.

And when John McCain stood with the protesters he was being quite public that he will do all he can in the US Senate to help those protesters with money if they succeeded in bringing Yanukivuch down.

So we will pay something and that has been my point.

[Jonathan_Chance]

RedFury, I won’t give you a warning for this one, but a simple reminder.

Attributing motive to another poster is a no-no. You can’t read their minds and doing so is debating in bad faith. Control yourself.

@RedFury

But listen to Batistuta instead, the left-wing Spaniard who has the handle on the ground.

No doubt he is ready for a Millán-Astray rebirth.

'tis to laugh.

[John_Mace]

@RedFury

Honestly? Who gives a fuck? As if they are a major player in anything. Beyond the fact that predictably so, they are (the PP) a rather traditional extreme right-wing Party.

OK, then let me personally apologize for my country being large and powerful and holding the exact same position on this issue as the entire Western World.

But hey! I’d love to see them tackle Russia. Just for shit and giggles – but of course the would bring the dreaded NATO into it.

No one’s doing shit, John, beyond talking lots of it. You simplty don’t fuckk with The Bear in their backyard as is plainly been shown.

The sanctions are unlikely to do much, but if it’s the only thing we can do to condemn this move, we should still do it. And right now, I personally think it’s all we can and should do.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@NotfooledbyW

Does your thought experiment involve a breakdown of constitutional law in Estonia and then a formerly pro-Russian semi-autonomous well-defined region once never part of Estonia, initiate steps to secede?

No, nothing like that.
Let’s say next August 20th (Estonian independence from USSR) we see an increase of anti-Russian sentiment in th media and blogosphere.
Maybe a couple of Russian flags are burned, strong words from some politicians and a couple of broken windows in ethnically-Russian areas.
Nothing more.
Window-breakers are arrested and punished according to law.

[NotfooledbyW]

@Aji_de_Gallina

No, nothing like that.
Let’s say next August 20th (Estonian independence from USSR) we see an increase of anti-Russian sentiment in th media and blogosphere.
Maybe a couple of Russian flags are burned, strong words from some politicians and a couple of broken windows in ethnically-Russian areas.
Nothing more.
Window-breakers are arrested and punished according to law.

Russia would be wrong to invade or send troops to protect pro-Russian communities on that pretense, but all nations including Russia would be obligated to pressure authorities to stop all violence by either side.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@NotfooledbyW

Russia would be wrong to invade or send troops to protect pro-Russian communities on that pretense, but all nations including Russia would be obligated to pressure authorities to stop all violence by either side.

Thanks, but, really? Acouple of broken windows gets international comdemnation and pressure, even when the guys get arrested?

But, still, thanks for “Russia would be wrong to invade or send troops to protect pro-Russian communities on that pretense”.

[Batistuta]

NATO thinks that the next Russian target will be Moldova, not Estonia.

I personally don’t think that Putin will go any further, he probably won’t want to push his luck. But if he does have a next target, it will definitely not be a NATO member - Estonia is out of the question, Moldova not so much

[tomndebb]

One aspect of this discussion that has gotten very little play in the various SDMB threads is demonstrated on these maps from an article published before the government change and Russian actions.

This one map helps explain Ukraine’s protests

A second aspect regarding Putin’s motives would be that the agricultural map of Ukraine closely approximates the ethnic map, and Russia could seriously benefit from “owning” the Ukrainian bread basket, (that some agricultural experts rate as better than the U.S. bread basket, having deeper and richer topsoil).

Ukraine Nature-Agricultural zoning | BioModel.info: Biodiversity modelling,...

[Batistuta]

@tomndebb

One aspect of this discussion that has gotten very little play in the various SDMB threads is demonstrated on these maps from an article published before the government change and Russian actions.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/

A second aspect regarding Putin’s motives would be that the agricultural map of Ukraine closely approximates the ethnic map, and Russia could seriously benefit from “owning” the Ukrainian bread basket, (that some agricultural experts rate as better than the U.S. bread basket, having deeper and richer topsoil).
Ukraine Nature-Agricultural zoning | BioModel.info: Biodiversity modelling, Species distribution models (SDMs), Spatial analysis, Education

Since you mention agricultural land in Ukraine: the Chinese control a large chunk of land in the country. I wonder if that will play a role in Putin’s future actions

[tomndebb]

The Dnipropetrovsk region is in the area where ethnic Russians predominate, (but which Russia has not yet made an overt move to take). I would guess that if Putin did annex that portion of Ukraine, his decision regarding the Chinese deal would be governed by whether he was more interested in the crops or the cash.

[Alessan]

@Batistuta

Since you mention agricultural land in Ukraine: the Chinese control a large chunk of land in the country. I wonder if that will play a role in Putin’s future actions

They don’t control the land - they own it. The guys with the tanks *control *it.