Sounds like he called like he sees it. Take away the nukes and Russia is a foundering nation with a population less than half that of the US. If things went to a conventional conflict, the US and NATO would topple the Russian government and break the country up into bite-sized chunk. A nuclear conflict would, of course, have no winners.
Russia is a failing power which is trying to appear to be strong. Since the US has proven the Russian weaponry (nukes aside) far inferior to the ours during the two Gulf Wars and since Russia has proven that it is unable to effectively govern itself or ally itself with its former vassal states (a no-brainer if there ever was one) treating Russia like it matters is simply a courtesy that it no longer merits.
What was wrong with Crimeans implementing their own local militia security at their seat of government as a result of the chaos, violence and what was easily seen by Crimeans as the illegal undemocratic transfer of power in the central government. That change in Kiev forced an abrupt change of direction away from Russia and toward Ukraine. In real time of fast moving events there was a fallen government and legitimate questions as to who was in control of the military and Ukrainian police.
Have you concluded that it was Russian Federation troops ordering the Crimean legislative body to submit to Putin’s ultimatums at gunpoint?
BBC reported on or before the 28th of February that Serhiy Tsekov, a top Crimean parliamentary said the military forces at the Parliament building were there “at the invitation of Crimean MPs and will remain” there as long as they ask them to.
I have no reason to not take BBC and Mr Tsekov at his word. Do you?
I find it interesting that you would judge Mr Tsekov as ‘wrong’ to join a declaration of indepenence from Ukraine from where you sit in the world.
Human Action thinks Crimea could somehow call a referendum on separating Crimea from Ukraine and maybe succeed despite this:
{An All-Ukrainian referendum is called on popular initiative on the request of no less than three million citizens of Ukraine who have the right to vote, on the condition that the signatures in favor of designating the referendum have been collected in no less than two-thirds of the oblasts, with no less than 100 000 signatures in each oblast.}
Besides Crimea there are three Oblasts with fifty percent Russian speaking population or more.
Fifteen oblasts have less than twenty percent of Russian speakers.
Collecting 17 oblasts with 100,000 signatures to let Crimea secede would be so close to impossible and even if they did get the signatures there is the slimmest of chances that it could pass anyway.
A substantial pro-Russian vote in Crimea, so long as it was done without the Russian army in control and an appropriate campaign were conducted should be accepted by the rest of Ukraine as something the Crimeans want and Ukraine is better off without this disturbing minority population. It would also move Ukraine closer to the West without this large pro-Russia population.
I really doubt this could be arranged, but a Russia-controlled Crimea, supported by most of the locals, but without international or Ukrainian acceptance, does not sound like a desirable outcome either.
In the end both Ukraine and Russia should incorporate at least partly into Europe. They are European and a world of super-states with populations in the billions seems to be where we are headed. As it is it looks more like Russia will push Europe more toward the US, something surely not in Russia’s long term interest.
Is it considered impossible in Spain because of practical and numerical reality? Any Pro-Russia Crimean going door to door in western Ukraine oblasts asking for eligible signatures to agree to let Crimea secede would likely be harassed by nationalists calling them agents of the power mad and land grabbing Putin from what I saw in Kiev the past few months.
You’re assuming uniformity of opinion amongst Crimeans and their MPs, that they were, to a man, pro-independence. That’s not the case. Allowing one faction of armed men to occupy the parliament building constitutes gross interference with the function of parliament, and the intimidation of those MPs not aligned with that faction.
Imagine a similar crisis in the U.S., and some Republican Senators inviting armed men loyal to their cause to take over the Senate building. What effects might that have on the proceedings of the Senate? Answer that, and you’ll see why occupying the parliament building was wrong.
Violating the Constitution is wrong. It’s wrong when the Ukrainian parliament does it, and it’s wrong when the Crimean parliament does it. This isn’t complicated. That I’m a U.S. citizen has nothing to do with it.
Can you show me that an independence movement existed, but was stymied by this process, before February of this year? That is, was it even being attempted?
Or the US. This idea that Crimeans somehow have more of a right to split off from their country than areas of other countries is just silly, after-the-fact rationalization. Once in awhile we see a peaceful split (Czechoslovakia), but that is the exception rather than the rule. More normally, there is significant bloodshed. Anyone cheering for this break-away is cheering for potential bloodshed.
100 countries in the UN General Assembly just voted in favour of a resolution supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. There were 58 abstentions, and 11 countries voted against. I assume that those 11 countries are the ones that will happily recognise Crimea as part of Russia: Armenia, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Nicaragua, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
As BrainGlutton said upthread, it seems that all we can do now is accept the situation and try to move forward. But it will be interesting to see just how we move forward if much of the international community refuses to accept Crimea as part of Russia. It will create a very complex situation in the region.
I’m surprised about Armenia, but I think the countries that voted in favor form a who’s who of the countries you’d least want to be allied with if you were interested in global peace and stability.
I certainly don’t think it’s worth a regional war to try and win Crimea back, there does need to be a “red line” drawn somewhere, and I’d say that is at the border of NATO countries. Not that I want Obama to publicly announce another "red line’, but we need to know what it is and we need to Russia know in some diplomatic sort of way.
I wonder what NFBW will make of the UN vote. I recall a lengthy discussion with him (highly painful, as always) concerning UN votes and his assertion that such votes matter, especially when there is a majority vote (unlike the reality where it’s pretty much window dressing, and only the UNSC actually matters…and in this case, it will be either 3 to 2 or 3 to 1 with an abstain…even assuming it came up for an actual resolution vote, which it won’t since obviously at least one member, Russia, is going to be opposed an a single vote against is all it takes).
I am not that surprised about Armenia. Armenia has a blood feud with Georgia going back hundreds of years. So this vote of theirs is a finger in the eye to Georgia, I guess.
The rest of them are certainly a rogues gallery of stellar countries that I’m sure NFBW, Red and the gang can really feel comfortable about having in their corner and on their side, though.
Well, as long as Venezuela and Cuba (not to mention North Korea) are behind you, how can you go wrong? Interesting that China abstained (well, interesting in the Chinese sense of the word, I guess :p)
That is a strange response because my point had nothing to do with what you are asking me to provide evidence of its existence. Here is what I wrote, would you care to respond?
{{Is it considered impossible in Spain because of practical and numerical reality? Any Pro-Russia Crimean going door to door in western Ukraine oblasts asking for eligible signatures to agree to let Crimea secede would likely be harassed by nationalists calling them agents of the power mad and land grabbing Putin from what I saw in Kiev the past few months.}}
