Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

For an individual, getting out of debt and staying out of debt is a good thing; but apparently the rules are somewhat different for nations. It appears that a certain amount of national debt is actually useful because the outstanding bonds and securities circulate like a sort of nationally issued Bitcoin, enhancing that nation’s financial status. Old war bonds still circulate because people like the dividends from them rather than a final cash settlement.

This reminds me of my high school Government class. Something about the federal government taking on the war debts of the states, helping to unify the new country and helping the United States build international credit.

But it’s been way too long for me to remember that. I’ll have to watch Hamilton sometime. I assume it touches on that.

The Russian forces are known for destroying entire cities with Artillery. They did it in Syria, Chechnya (battle of Grozny) and other conflicts.

AFAIK they haven’t fought artillery battles against equal forces since WWII. It’s a different battle because each side is targeting the others artillery.

Shelling a city that can’t fight back is a lot easier.

Interesting. What about the sort of urban warfare the Ukrainian forces are doing?

Where did Russia suddenly get a supply of dollars from?

Russia had some international bond payments that were due this month. They attempted to make the payments using rubles. But they were told that the bonds specified that the payments had to be made in American dollars. If Russia didn’t make the payment in dollars, they would be in default on the loans.

At the last minute, Russia made the payments in dollars. The total amount was over six hundred million dollars.

Russia owns that many dollars. But it’s mostly in frozen accounts. The United States government has issued a statement saying it has not released any Russian accounts.

So where did Russia gets these dollars from? Did it have that many dollars in its own domestic accounts? Or did some other country unfreeze a Russian account? Or was there an under the table transaction where somebody sold dollars to the Russian government for some unspecified assets?

I’ll admit I don’t normally follow the financial news so maybe I’m missing something obvious here.

Completely WAG, China.

Vlad pulled it out from under his mattress …

A senior U.S. official said later Friday that Russia had not mobilized money through the U.S. system and the payments involved fresh funds.

“The main concern was are they going to use funds that were immobilized in the U.S. or use the money they have been using to prop up the ruble and the war effort. It appears it came from that pile of money because we didn’t authorize any transactions involving the immobilized funds in the U.S.,” the official said, according to Reuters.

That was my guess too.

India has increased its purchases of Russian gas and oil also.

A few weeks ago when Russia triggered default on their second set of bond payments, Russia said they can’t pay in USD because their USD accounts are frozen so they wanted to pay in Rubles. The Biden admin’s response was that Russia could use the USD they receive as payment for oil and gas contracts.

Obviously there is as much politics as economics in those statements. I don’t know who is correct and if the payments would cover the bonds. We do know that the oil and gas contracts are primarily specified in USD and EUR.

I think the point might be not to force Russia into default, but to soak up their oil and gas payments so that it can’t be used for the war effort.

I thought Russia was insisting on selling its gas and oil for rubles. This props up the value of the ruble (which had been falling) but it limits Russia’s ability to build up foreign currency reserves.

Although I suppose that by insisting on payment in rubles for gas and oil, Russia is creating a secondary demand for rubles. So it can sell rubles first and then get the rubles back when it sells gas and oil.

Agreed. Russia must be prioritizing propping the Ruble over the danger of default (or the cost of burning USDs they have squirreled away).

I’ve heard North Korea does a brisk business in counterfeiting money.

The Russian fascist invaders’ Donbas Offensive appears to have stalled, with little to no territory seized in the past few days.

From yesterday’s campaign assessment by the Institute for the Study of War:

Another dead Russian general:

More strikes in Russian Belgorod - sounds like an ammo depot:

Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine says that Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov was at the Izyum HQ that was attacked yesterday, in which the Major-General in the previous post was killed:

There are indications that there may have been a VIP in Belgorod today:

Avakov’s tweet (via Google Translate):

That’s disappointing. It puts products made in India in a bad light. I know it’s a poor country but they’re taking advantage of a brutal war for their personal gain.

Probably a fresh load of replacement Generals and a return flight of wounded soldiers.

It’s sounding like the Ukrainians have been getting VERY good advice on how to hit where it hurts. I’m reminded of articles I’ve read about terrorism by engineers who said that if saboteurs knew how to hit infrastructure targets smartly they could inflict stupendous harm.