Plus 30+ MLRS vehicles from the UK and Norway - which are HIMARS equivalents.
given my status as armchair general (and former pandemic expert) - I dont have to be overly precise … the whole security by obscurity thing - you understand… 
There is relatively little chance of outrunning their supply chains, as they move pretty much parallel to their own territory (as opposed to advancing deep into enemy territory, where supply chain issues might be a real problem)
I tried to explain that to @Sam_Stone before, but it is clear that his sources are not the paragon of modesty.
Actually if he accepts the borders resetting to 2013 and NATO invites the Ukraine to join, it is a great victory. Though I don’t disagree that as long as he is alive he is extremely dangerous.
Wow, it’s hard to even keep up with the advance today. It looks like Ukraine may have already re-taken Izyum.
It’s genuinely shocking just how much of a shambles the Russian military seems to have become. This REALLY shouldn’t be happening. Russia has/had a solid numerical and material superiority and plenty of recent military experience at least for the careerist officer corps.
Corruption and low morale look like they have just gutted them. It’s looking more and more like Russia just concentrated on keeping a handful of elite units properly supplied, motivated and trained. Enough to comfortably beat up on little nations like Georgia and launch brief and limited blitzkriegs, but nowhere near what is needed to fight an aggressive sustained slugging match against any reasonable-sized power.
Still far too early to call anything, but if they can’t hold their gains better than this even a war of attrition is going to become a non-starter. Which, good for Ukraine. Here’s hoping the panic spreads and Russia fails to stabilize its front.
I think we need to hear from Tucker Carlson before making any definitive statements.
He’ll likely be telling us tonight how well the Russian advance on Kyiv is going.
He’ll likely be telling us tonight how well the Russian advance on Voronezh is going.
This is old news. We’ve moved on to places like Vovchansk, Kreminna and Lysychansk now.
Russian forces are collapsing even faster than the Afghan government
From what I have been reading this morning, they are intentionally pulling back to the Donbas border and will entrench there. That will probably be where the serious fighting will start and sooner rather than later. This is not to say that they aren’t getting their asses kicked.
Make sense?
That’s a Russian narrative I’ve seen - that this is a feint to draw in Ukrainian forces, while Russians move back to superior defensive lines.
It’s nonsense, and I don’t think there are many Russians who believe it. Most I’ve read are in panic mode.
In general, I’ve expected Russia to fortify the land route to Crimea. They also probably have more of a home team advantage in the original breakaway regions from 2014 but it’s not clear how important that territory is to them compared to the coastal regions.
If they shrink further than that, they’re in trouble. But until we see Ukraine get to that region, I don’t think we can say for certain how well fortified the Russian army is.
I expect we’ll hear this from good old Tucker:
- There are no Ukraine infidels in Kiev. Never!"
- “No I am not scared and neither should you be!”
- The Ukranians will be welcomed with bullets and shoes."
- “They’re not even within 100 miles of Izyum. They are not in any place. They hold no place in the glorious Russian annexed territory. This is an illusion … they are trying to sell to the others an illusion.”
I’m not sure Russia can even hold Crimea anymore. Ukraine has the weaponry now to target the Crimean bridge and other Russian targets in Crimea.
There are also developments in Russia. Huge mobilization of military in Moscow. Central Moscow is closed to traffic and blocked off, and politicians in Moscow are calling for the resignation of Putin.
If the rout in Ukraine continues, we could see real instability in Russia.
That may be due to celebrations for Moscow’s 875th anniversary. They’re having a firework display and Putin opened a new ferris wheel, which unconfirmed reports say has already broken down.
The problem with that narrative, assuming reports are accurate, is you don’t leave large supplies of ammo behind when making an orderly withdrawal. Nor generally, due to the risk, even for a feigned retreat/ambush scenario. Even in a hard-fighting retreat - you at least sabotage what you can’t take.
You leave unexploded munitions behind because you rout in panic. Any subsequent suggestion that they are just redeploying comes off as hollow in the wake of those reports. “We’re just running as fast as we can to get to our new positions! This was always planned!” doesn’t really hold up.
Now that may be the NEW plan - make lemons out of lemonade as it were. But it surely wasn’t planned in advance.
No, what is needed is that the Worlds Greatest Military Expert ™ TRUMP to take command of the Russian armies and on to victory!!
Yes it does. But they have shown an appalling lack of ability to execute operations properly since the start of the campaign. There is no reason to believe that has changed.
In any normal world, the Ukrainian counter-offensive would be madness. It would risk losing most of their reserves against a superior force and then having too few of them come the inevitable enemy offensive. like the Germans in the Bulge.
Here it seems almost visionary.
Here’s Baghdad Bob (Moscow Mikhail?):