Things are certainly happening rather quickly. It is hard to keep up. Clearly, the Ukrainians have had the initiative for quite some time. Now they also seem to have momentum.
Any ideas about how much the HIMARS have been a factor in the recent Ukrainian gains? Those things are damned impressive!
As for the most-recent gains, I couldn’t find any info, but Gen. Mark Milley did state that, since HIMARS was introduced to Ukraine months ago, the Ukrainians have slammed over 400 Russian targets with them. Yeah, not sure how many of those were in the past 7 days.
The weird thing is that, fundamentally, HIMARS is a pretty crude system - just a truck that fires GPS-guided rockets, nothing more. It’s extremely straightforward and non-complex. Yet even such a simple and basic system has wreaked nonstop havoc on the Ruzzians that they can’t stop.
The thing that’s impressive to me, as a lay observer with virtually no military knowledge, is (a) the ability to quickly position the HIMARS at an optimum location, (b) the ability to fire multiple precision-guided rockets in quick succession, and (c) the ability to then quickly disappear (hence the “high mobility” moniker).
I suspect the Ukrainians just love those things!
ISW didn’t put out a Sept 9 update. I’ve had it time out several times trying to load.
The war in Ukraine is moving fast. They may be overwhelmed?
Reuters is reporting that the Ukrainian Breakthrough is threatening to turn into a rout of the Russians.
They’ve taken back city hall in Kupiansk.
They may be close to encircling thousands of Russian troops.
This is my take on everyone panicking about Europe “freezing” this winter. It seems they’re forgotten that Europe survived for thousands of years before they had gas-powered central heating. Heating whole houses to shirt-sleeve environments for the entire day is cool and all, but it’s by no means necessary for survival. Light a fire, share rooms, share beds, wear a sweater, there’s lots of ways to keep warm in the winter.
It won’t be as comfortable as we’re used to, but it won’t be a disaster either.
Wonderful news.
The months of preparation and training is paying off.
Also, climate change could finally be our friend. Google says the warmest winter on record in Europe was in 2020, which beat the previous record set in 2015. An unseasonably warm winter is a real possibility. Sure would be nice to get a positive effect from global warming.
The main concern isn’t residential heating, it’s the price of electricity going through the roof.
People are getting hit by huge electricity bills, and industries may be forced to shut down production due to cost.
This is happening even in countries where we don’t use gas/coal to produce it.
impressive … I’d say it def. was a turning point in this war … when Ukr. could stop turning the other cheek to get slapped and started punching back …
the fact that there was a safe space to take out the omnipresent 152mm artillery of russia - turned this completely around.
THAT was the only strength of Russia … shelling cities from 25km distance to dust… once this strength was taken away - things pretty much ran its course …
but it is interesting that - what I call - “16 trucks” can do to russia’s army.
holy $hit, batman!!!
now full effort to keep the Ukrs. supplied and keep the momentum - to stop at the KERCH bridge!!!
One can only fathom what Russia is leaving behind now on war assets (and that’s just a little angle to the whole thing)
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I put it somewhere upthread when the counter-offense started - and I say it again: We witness HISTORY IN THE MAKING!!
How long do we give Putin to staying (politically) alive ?
any thoughts of political outfall in Moscow?
I cannot fathom a way for him to see the end of september in his position …
From the Reuters article:
“The first function is to provide help that they need. The next job is to document the crimes committed by Russian invaders on the territories which they temporarily occupied.”
The third, unstated, function? Hunt down the collaborators who were installed as puppet municipal governments by Russia.
If those folks are smart, they’re already trying to get to Russia.
“They pretend to lead us; we pretend to fight.”
the fact that they were available as puppet governor, is already indicative of not being smart 
lots of fog-of-war but things seem to be really collapsing for the russians:
I think the second stanza reflects the thinking of people who want to pay Russia to go away.
And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you’ve only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
And then you’ll get rid of the Dane!
As you and Mr. Kipling note, that doesn’t work.
If Putin remains in power, there can be no real victory. He would simply accept an armistice as a break to prepare for the next round. All in all, that man is too dangerous to be allowed to live.
For those worrying about the Ukrainians advancing too far too fast, please note that the most notable past instances of the Russian strategy of retreating to lure their opponents into overextending themselves involved retreating all the way to Moscow.