One thing there seems to have been a lack of is a heavy-enough Western cyberattack campaign against Russia.
Cyberweapons seem to be pretty much acknowledged as a gray-area form of warfare, where it doesn’t rise to the same level of casus belli as actual explosives hitting a target, yet can still inflict considerable damage.
A strong-enough Western campaign of cyberwarfare against Russian governmental buildings, energy facilities, websites, airports, ports, media stations, factories, etc. could have significant effect while also keeping things below the level of formal escalation.
The West also needs to think long and hard of some good ways to worsen Russia’s demographic crisis and brain drain.
would be interesting to know if that terrain has any tactical specifics (e.g. higher ground overseeng turf) that would make it worthwhile holding on to and making it very expensive for RU to get back
… or if it is just a “nuisance attack” to bind RU defenses
maybe … they are planning for territory swaps for a ceasefire
I’m surprised there haven’t been more Ukrainian raids on Russian Airfields that are near the border.
I know Russian partisans have attacked planes on runways. But a full scale raid by Ukrainian special forces could disable a airbase for quite awhile. Take out the control tower and command center.
I don’t know if Ukraine’s special forces are still effective. They may have been killed already in the war.
This attack seems pretty daring. I see a huge downfall potential if Ukraine cannot hold it/doesn’t plan to hold Russian territory.
For Russian propaganda purposes, I’d imagine it’s much easier to recruit and get more internal support if they can show the enemy inside Russia harming Russian civilians (I don’t mean intentionally, and you have to ignore the hypocrisy - but that’s everyone in every war). Much harder to be indifferent to that and Russian news will definitely let them see that.
But if Ukraine can hold some territory. Then wow. Pretty damn good way to turn the tables.
I agree, as it seems to be “cheap and easy” territory for the UKR to take, as opposed to the “hugely expensive” territory RU is taking inch-by-inch from UKR at the expense of loss of 100s of armored vehicles and 10s of 1000s of death soldiers.
So with a little luck, this month might be a net-negative for RU in terms of territory wins.
I think I heard that Ukraine was shipping gas from the captured facility to Europe. If so, the message is to the European community: “Ukraine holding territory means you get gas. Russia holding territory means that you get nothing.”
Eeehhh… yes. We are. And Ukraine gets transit fees from Russia for the Russian gas that comes through their territory to Europe (see map in the link with the pipelines that go through Ukraine: they are still operational, and both war parties earn money from that trade!). Russia pays Ukraine transit fees, Europe pays Russia for the gas.
…and Ukraine still consumes natural gas that physically comes from Russia but since November 2015 legally is bought from European companies, i.e. it goes through the latter’s books so Ukraine can proudly say they do not buy gas from Russia. The Russian gas molecules are not bothered by that legal fiction. That’s going to end at the end of 2024 because the EU has invested in enabling pipelines to be reversible.
I don’t know what is happening right now to the gas the Ukrainians have “conquered” with the offensive that has given them “control” of a pump node in Russian territory: the bills will be settled later and disputes will make lawyers rich. But until last week Russia still sold gas to Europe, it passed in transit through Ukraine, and Europe paid Russia for the gas, and Russia paid Ukraine for the transit.
Similar story: The USA bough oil from Venezuela, although Venezuela was an enemy state. Cite. From the article:
But a senior administration official said the easing of sanctions was not driven by the oil market pressures and was instead a response the Venezuelan regime’s decision this week to participate in the negotiations with opposition groups. Those talks, which were originally launched in Mexico City in September 2021, are expected to focus on humanitarian programs and setting future elections.
FTR: This is bullshit, i.e. a lie. And if you search for US buying oil from Venezuela you will find many more articles with mind boggling details. Money talks!
Similar story (2): Can’t find a quick cite, but England paid Germany interests during WWI for state issued bonds, and the Soviet Union paid the heirs of the composer of The Internationale royalties for their National Anthem.
Reports are that Germany has approved Ukraine to use Leopard 2 tanks on Russian soil. The optics of German tanks going into Kursk/Russia again are delicious.
To answer your question: nobody ever has, but they have cared a lot about controling the sellers. It did not always work out the way the buyers intended.
Ufff! Delicious is not the word I would have chosen.
For those who haven’t read it, I think it traces oil’s history (as a fossil fuel) from the 1800’s through the 1990’s (?). It’s amazing how closely it tracks the importance of actual world history.
So, correct me if I’m wrong, but in theory at least, Russia should have certain troops it can use only in self-defense (inside Russia) but cannot use to invade Ukraine (deploy outside Russia). Is there any sign that this is true and/or they are in any way effective or were even mobilized near the border?
from what I read (the fog of war is thick here) … UKR penetrated 2 lines of defense of RU (looks like they cought them sleeping) and there seems to be little to no military resistance where they are now (already behind the RU defense lines).
It seems they are more supply-chain limited in advancing than being stopped by anybody … and from quite a few comments on X and reddit there seem to be fresh elite-troops involved and there is backup and reserves at hand (take all with plenty of salt) …
but that seems to be the current situation … I have the feeling they did try something “new” and had a huge windfall-profit falling into their lap and scramble now to see what they can do and how to leverage it in the best way.
Analogy: The former Putin’s Chef attack on Moscow last year … where they advanced 700 or so km without anybody there to stop them.
