Of course they were. But what is more relevant here is, I think, from the Estonian MoD’s Xit:
Duration of the border violation: ca 12 minutes
and
NATO🇮🇹 fighters escorted them out
If NATO fighters (that looks like the Italian flag) were able to catch up with 3 MiG-31 and escort them out in less than 12 minutes, NATO has passed the test. MiG-31 is “the fastest known operational combat aircraft, with a top speed around 3,000 km/h (1,600 knots)” after all. Such a rapid response shows a good level of preparation and that NATO is waiting for them to come.
Mig-31’s top speed would require full afterburner and probably runs it out of fuel in minutes. Cruising speed is much, much slower.
I’m not criticizing the response, but I’m in the Turkey had the right idea camp. Warn the Russians that further incursions will result in shoot downs, and then make good on the threat should the occasion arise. Putin pushes until someone pushes back.
As @Alessan said, the Russian people and their army don’t need morale. Their opinion does not count. If Putin wants the war to continue, it’ll continue. His preferences are the only ones that matter.
This is not how real world humans behave. Maybe there’s something in Russian culture that makes it easier for Putin to get a bunch of them killed for no reason. But they’re still human beings. They still have limits. War is logistics and morale, end of story. It’s not “logistics and morale except for when Russia is involved”. Morale is still part of what’s going on, and we’ll see where it goes.
If anything, this may show it’s time for the Baltic states to get their own fighter fleet rather than rely on NATO air policing. They’d have more autonomy and ability to act on their own independently. Even just a dozen or half-dozen interceptor jets would do.
cf: World War One, the collapse of the Soviet Union.
We saw where it went in 1917, so there’s that to look forward to.
Right. Especially if we consider Ukraine as being part of “the West”. Mostly because Ukraine doesn’t have an option to roll over to Russian domination and oppression. They aren’t facing the old fashioned “die on your feet or live on your knees” scenario. They are facing the “die on your feet or die on your knees”, so why would they even consider rolling over?
Clearly Putin is not a god and cannot completely override all other aspects of humanity and logistics by sheer force of his personal will.
What I am suggesting is that many, many Westerners grossly underestimate just how much more shit the Russian people are willing to eat than we are. It’s not 10% more, it’s 10x or 30x more. Assuming that the Russian people are going to start shouting “Enough!” any day now has been a common refrain since about the second month of the war. IMO it’s still a long way in their future.
Such is life for people born in a mature police state. With luck current Americans (and their children) won’t have to learn those adaptations firsthand.
How much is unknowable right now. Tomorrow could be the limit, or it could be years from now. The more support Ukraine gets, the faster it will be. Hopefully we’ll find out.
I don’t know what the number is on the Russian side. Probably Putin himself is unsure of what the number is. But there are other things that are certain.
- The present amount of shit that the Russian people are eating isn’t enough to conquer Ukraine. If Putin wants to do that, the ordinary Russian people need to eat more than the current amount.
- If Ukraine gives up, then they are done for as a people. Giving up isn’t an option for them since the alternative is likely genocide. They may eventually get overrun by the sheer difference in numbers, but they aren’t going to give up.
With those two knowns, the unknown of how much shit the Russian people will eat is mostly of importance to Putin himself. He can only push so far before he ends up like Gorbachev (in a good case scenario for Putin) or the Tsar (in a bad case scenario), and the fact that he doesn’t know how far that is the major unknown of the war.
Agree w both those last two posts; @iiandyiiii & @FlikTheBlue.
The limit is out there, it’s getting closer, and Putin’s survival depends on not hitting it.
Where we may differ is in how close we each assess the limit to be vs. today.
The most interesting thing from this war is how……non-instinctive the human desire for survival is and how it’s not necessarily a universal trait. Usually, in most people, there is a strong ingrained instinct to live, avoid harm, avoid pain and suffering, and act in one’s own best interest - it’s how a species survives and evolves, after all. But a significant number of Russian conscripts or volunteers show indifference to their own survival. Not all or even most, but a good some. You can’t imagine American soldiers, for instance, being uninterested in going back home safe and sound to family, or thinking “Well, I’m OK with being maimed for life even if it’s avoidable.”
I think the first part of the section I quoted in part contradicts the last part. You specify “conscripts and volunteers”, but those are verrrrrry different things. Conscripts are almost certainly down into the nihilism level - they didn’t get a choice, and if they run I suspect their fate is going to be far worse than getting killed or injured on the front lines, especially as it may be extended to their families. They may well have the instinctive desire for survival, but judge that it’s Higher doing the minimum they have to do in battle, rather than run the risks of escape.
As for volunteers… We’ve seen news reports of troops being “volun-told” to go to the front line, so not so different from conscripts. Or they were (especially in the earlier phases of the war) drawn in by the substantial benefits and wealth being offered, and are deep into sunk costs by now plus the consequences I mentioned earlier.
I’ll point to how a huge number of military age men fled the country if they had the resources to do so earlier on.
NATO has to respond in some measured way. Right now NATO looks like a paper tiger. All roar and no substance.
Guardian live
How would Russia respond to intrusions by NATO forces. Suppose only 2 jets wandered a mile into Russian territory. Is there any doubt they would be immediately shot down?
Is Russia even capable of doing that? Ukraine still has an air force, which suggests that Russia doesn’t have the capability to immediately shoot down jets in their own airspace, at least not with anywhere close to 100% probability. They would probably do even worse against F-35s than they have against the F-15s and old Soviet jets that Ukraine still uses.
For clarity, Ukraine has received F-16 fighters, not F-15. Different capabilities. Perhaps a typo?
Yes. My fingers are getting fatter and it seems like the phone screens get smaller. But yes, Ukraine uses jets one or two generations older than what NATO has, and although they have lost some, they are from “getting shot down immediately” when going up against Russia.
It seemed like Russia used the majority of their Cold War military inventory against Ukraine.
Russia’s troops are tied up in Ukraine.
Expanding the war doesn’t make sense.
Their recent incursions makes even less sense. Putin must be convinced NATO is all bluster and no action.
This is what I don’t really understand. Why would Putin want to start proper armed hostilities against NATO? He’s not exactly been smashing it in Ukraine in the last 3 years.