Any speculation or theories on why Moscow’s stock market has abruptly shut down without warning? There’s a tendency to assume the reasons for it may be war-related, but would not have to be.
Moscow Exchange abruptly halts stock market trading (msn.com)
I read that the EU will begin to sanction China for supporting Russia. Maybe that? I don’t have a clue really.
Seems to have been just an IT problem
Of course IT problems come in the form of legit failures / goofs, poor quality internal processes, active sabotage by insiders, and active hostile action by hackers of whatever motivation.
(Slideshow)
Fifty-nine Russian Mi-8 helicopters and other aircraft have gone missing,
Russian authorities are scrutinizing the actions of the Federal Air Transport Agency amid allegations of illicit transfers to “unfriendly countries,” heightening tensions surrounding the ongoing conflict.
Said another way, those aircraft disappeared or crashed a decade ago but were left on tbe books so nobody got in trouble and the fuel and parts they “consumed” could be sold.
No different than Grannie dying and the kids don’t tell Social Security for a few years so the checks keep coming.
Grannie got transferred to an unfriendly country?
I’m not 100% sure if this belongs in the main “Ukraine war” thread or here:
France has signed a security agreement with Ukraine, but as the article says, has released few details about what that actually means for the Ukrainians. Any ideas?
I’ve no idea of the specifics of this agreement, and I suspect it’s unlikely to change things in terms of material support, but I suspect France just wanted to hand Ukraine a much needed diplomatic victory.
I remember them saying 3 or 4 years in 2023. I suspected something was off when Europe claimed they couldn’t fully rearm and supply Ukraine. Their inventory wasn’t stocked for a extended conflict.
The problems of running war logistics without a full-on war economy.
In the first year of this war, the consensus among informed observers seemed to be that Ukraine would eventually recover all of its occupied territory. And the arguments to that effect were pretty convincing.
Since then, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed, and the front line has barely moved for more than a year. Have anyone’s expectations for the outcome of this war changed as a result? Should we be revisiting our predictions?
If we restore logistical and weapons support for Ukraine, and keep it up consistently, they will win. War is logistics and morale, and as long as we ensure they have a logistics advantage, their hometown morale advantage should be enough to eventually drive the Russians out.
But it’s less clear than it was that we would maintain that logistics assistance long term. Hopefully we will continue.
I started to type a reply, and thought to myself, "but iiandyiiii will disagree with me again. 
As sure enough, he beat me to it!
I predicted a year or more ago that Russia would win, because they can outlast Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting.
Ukraine definitely has the advantage in logistics and morale, but that’s not enough.
And even that is now lacking.
(quoted from France 24 news: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240105-as-losses-mount-ukrainians-fiercely-debate-future-of-draft.)
And now we see that Ukraine is losing their only other advantage: logistics and supply. It has always been totally dependent on gifts of ammo and equipment from other countries, and those are now not being delivered as much.
Meanwhile, Russia has an infinite supply of new canon fodder soldiers. It has plenty of ammunition, even if it’s not high-tech. Old-fashioned artillery shells can flatten every building in any city they attack. In the areas it has conquered, Russia has built defenses deeply dug in, surrounded by vast minefields, so Ukraine will not be able to dislodge them without a massive,modern air force. Which Ukraine does not have.
I am sad.
It may take 5 years, but eventually Kiev will fall under Russian occupation. And if Trump wins in November, much less than 5 years.
I am very sad.
Russia only has unlimited soldiers and ammunition in the fantasy world in which the evil Soviet Empire is all powerful with incredible industry. In reality, Russian industry is pathetic, their economy is struggling, and we really don’t have much of an idea of the true state of Russian logistics, supply, morale, and other important military measures because it’s a closed society. They could be on the brink of collapse and we might not have any idea. If we can keep Ukraine well supplied, they should be able to take advantage of whatever Russian weaknesses arise due to their own opaque issues, in addition to the normal (very slow) progress a force with superior logistics and morale would make on their own.
The idea that Russia will be able to make their way to Kiev is about as fantastical as Ukraine making their way to Moscow. If we can’t keep Ukraine in logistical superiority, they may eventually have to settle for some territorial loss, but there’s no way Putin’s kleptocratic regime has the capacity to take control of the entirety of Ukraine.
IMO @iiandyiiii is spot-on.
In a contest between the West and Russia, the Russians come up woefully short of manpower and GDP. Their sole advantage is their nihilistic leadership’s willingness to pour resources down a rathole long past the point where it benefits them to do so.
Conversely, in a contest between Ukraine alone and Russia, the Ukrainians come up woefully short of manpower and GDP. Their advantages are their strong leadership, and the realization of the public that they are fighting for the only country they have.
So from a geopolitical POV, it’s easy to see Russia’s winning move: pry the West’s support away from Ukraine. They are working assiduously to that end. Via conventional psy-ops, bot wars, and election interference.
Plus a heaping helping of simple battlefield stalemate. Being able to create stalemate at a low sustained drain of their manpower works for them. They don’t have to defeat the West; just be more patient than the West during a sustained low-level bleeding contest.
Having Zelenskyy die, be deposed in a coup, or go all hard-core dictator and so become distasteful to Western sensibilities would be helpful too. No doubt efforts are being made in that direction every day too.
My bottom line:
It is far too early to say whether Russia will get its wish and the West drops Ukraine. But that is the fulcrum upon which this war pivots. Any other considerations are just noise, not signal.
Not really.
It’s the problem of underinvesting in munitions for decades. For the US, they overinvest in force structure and underinvest in consumables. For the EU/rest of NATO, they underinvest period.
You do not need a wartime “guns; no butter” economy to be ready to fight WW-III nor to defeat the Russians in Ukraine.
But you do need to prioritize munitions production and be willing to buy, stockpile, and later dispose unused of vast amounts of treasure every year forever. A willingness the Western governments have done nothing to engender in their populaces. Nor have they used their professional judgment well. Wishful thinking has been the order of the day since Gorbachev stepped down.
One thing that’s absolutely definite is that Russia won’t win. They have already lost, they lost in February 2022, and nothing that they can do now or in the future can change that. The question is just whether they can drag Ukraine into losing, too.
I don’t think that they can. I think Ukraine will win this. But they won’t win it by pushing the front line forward over time. In terms of the map, Ukraine’s eventual win will look like the map remaining static for years, until Russia suddenly and catastrophically fails. At most, there will be two abrupt changes to the map: Once when all of Crimea all at once shifts from Russian control to Ukrainian, and once, some time later, when the same thing happens to the eastern oblasts.
Isn’t that kind of what happened in Afghanistan? The Soviet Union kept it up for ten years, then suddenly gave up?
Russia was only facing Western supplied insurgents in Afghanistan.
Ukraine has a pretty good army. The loss of ammunition and shells is putting them at a disadvantage.
They just pulled out of Avdiivka. Imho it’s primarily because of limited shells and supplies.