Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022}

[scabpicker]

@Fear_Itself

Why is that better?

Because it would both provide a symbolic sacrifice and might actually provide some assistance in the defense of their country?

Either way, a strike from Ukraine on a strategic asset of the Russians would pretty much necessitate them attacking preemptively, which is a luxury they don’t really have. By the time an attack is ongoing, a counter strike against something nearby (like a column of tanks) is probably going to be the best that they can muster in the way of air power. Anything else is going to have a desperate time making its way to its target.

[Elmer_J.Fudd]

Any preemptive action by the Ukrainians only provides a casus belli for Putin.

[scabpicker]

Yeah, and that’s why I doubt the Ukrainian air force will be used against anything other than Russian assets being moved into their territory. They may react too late, but I don’t see another option.

“Wait and see” isn’t necessarily the most heroic posture available to a military, but it seems to be the only reasonable one available to Ukraine.

ETA: And the rest of us, too.

[chappachula]

@XT

It’s a matter of cost to benefit., the further west he goes the more losses he will take. And today, the Russian people aren’t willing to take huge losses in their sons and daughters for the motherland.

Is this really an issue for Putin? Does he care, or even think about, his popularity among the common people and their sons and daughters?

[Drsunflower1]

@XT

I can see that, though remember that when the Red Army came back into Ukraine, and despite all of the really nasty stuff the ethnic Russians had done to ethnic Ukrainians, over 4 million Ukrainians jumped to join the Red Army…so, we aren’t talking about even a majority of ethnic Ukrainians. Also, remember that it was still Germans in charge of Ukraine, and still German soldiers who were there as well. This doesn’t excuse those nationalistic Ukrainians who joined with Hitler…far from it. But just put it all into context.

Stepan Bandera, the Ukranian Nationalist leader that Putin was always referring to during the Maidan protests, was deported to Sachsenhausen by the Germans.
The Ukranians had been starved deliberately by Stalin in the preceding decade in the collectivisation, a period called the Holodomor which claimed at least three million lives. Like in Poland, there was a large Jewish population, far larger than in Western europe. Antisemitism was rampant before the Nazis, for a plethora of reasons. The Germans recruited Einsatzgruppen, Hilfswilligen and laborers. The massacre of Babi Yar took place on Ukranian soil.
At the same time these people have been fucked over beyond belief by both the Red Army and the Nazis, just like in Poland, and were considered inferior by both. It’s a very complicated, very bloody part of history. For those interested, Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder gives an in-depth look at it. I think it’s very difficult to judge what has gone on there, at least from my Western European perspective in a country where also almost the entire Jewish population was annihilated, yet we were never called Nazis. We also had 20.000 joining the Waffen SS, fighting on the Eastern Front. It’s complicated, to say the least .

[Alessan]

I’m seeing reports of separatists claiming that the Ukrainian military has been attacking them with mortar fire. This could be the bullshit that starts it.

[Broomstick]

@chappachula

@XT

It’s a matter of cost to benefit., the further west he goes the more losses he will take. And today, the Russian people aren’t willing to take huge losses in their sons and daughters for the motherland.

Is this really an issue for Putin? Does he care, or even think about, his popularity among the common people and their sons and daughters?

I suspect not. Rumor has it Putin cares only about himself and money. Nonetheless, some of his lieutenants have families they care about, and if sufficiently pushed Putin will start having problems on the home front. I’m not sure when that would kick in.

[Alessan]

@Broomstick

Rumor has it Putin cares only about himself and money.

I think Putin is a more standard-issue autocrat, in that to him, money is just an means to an end - what he wants is power, which is worth a lot more than mere money.

[Fear_Itself]

No one has suggested a preemptive strike.

[Alessan]

I mean, if the Ukrainian military were up for it, I’d be in favor, but it isn’t, so I’m not.

[HMS_Irruncible]

Latest developments:

• Pro-Russian forces reportedly shell a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine
• New military-style pontoon bridge suddenly appears across the Pripyat river
• Satellite images show an addition of 7,000 Russian troop in Belarus (not a decrease as previously reported)
• Cyberattacks disrupt Ukrainian military and financial sites

All signs continue to point to imminent invasion. The only open questions are:

• What will be Russia’s fabricated pretext?
• Will they hold the attack until after the Olympics are concluded?
• What will they attempt to occupy vs. dominating with air power & political power?
• Are they willing to threaten escalation outside of Ukraine to discourage foreign interference?

I have this recurring mental image of Putin going on Russian television with a bucket of what he claims is debris from American cruise missiles, claiming they’ve attacked Russia and had better knock it off if nobody wants more escalation. That’s the kind of propaganda game that frightens me here.

[XT]

@HMS_Irruncible

What will be Russia’s fabricated pretext?

The ongoing ‘genocide’ by ethnic Ukrainians against ethnic Russians. Unless something else presents itself, I’d say he will go with that, as he seems to talk about it more than anything else.

@HMS_Irruncible

Will they hold the attack until after the Olympics are concluded?

3 days away, so…maybe. I’m not sure if the Olympics are really factoring into his timetable, though his Chinese partners might have asked him to hold off until they are over so as not to detract from all the glory the CCP is gaining over them.

@HMS_Irruncible

What will they attempt to occupy vs. dominating with air power & political power?

Both I’d say. My WAG on a possible war would be the Russian start off with a huge missile and artillery bombardment, followed by airstrikes against key Ukrainian targets, then send in the troops into the currently rebelling provinces, basically annexing them into the Russian Federation to defend their populations from ‘genocide’ and at the popular demand of their adoring citizens. Depending on how that goes, the Russians might either hold tight there, or rearm and push forward to the Dnieper, maybe threaten Kyiv and try and force the Ukrainians either to negotiate away all of the captured territories or, if the Ukrainians completely fold, force them to become a puppet state in Moscow’s orbit. It will hinge, IMHO, on how well (or poorly) Ukrainians fight and how much (or little) damage they inflict on the Russians. IMHO, if it’s bloody, if the Russian’s take a substantial amount of losses, especially to big-ticket stuff like modern fighters or tanks or just a substantial number of casualties, they will hold to just the break away provinces. If they do really well…they will go for more.

@HMS_Irruncible

Are they willing to threaten escalation outside of Ukraine to discourage foreign interference?

No. I don’t think they want that. For a lot of reasons. First, Russia really doesn’t want to tangle with NATO or the US in any sort of fight. Putin wants…really needs…to do this with relatively little loss to his own forces. Russia really doesn’t have an over abundance of modern aircraft or MBTs or other weapons systems, and their pipeline for new stuff is very long, so replacing what he loses is not going to be quick or easy. I also don’t think the Russian people would be too keen on heavy losses these days…something where Putin goes in, grabs some land (like in the Crimea), and gets out without Russia being burned would be great. Heavy losses wouldn’t be. And if he tangles with NATO or the US Russia will take unacceptable losses. Plus, you never know where such a conflict might go.

Second, it will be more humiliating to the west if Putin rolls in and takes southeastern Ukraine and they have to sit helplessly by and watch it, especially if their sanctions don’t hit Russia as hard as many anticipate (cushioned by the Chinese).

@HMS_Irruncible

I have this recurring mental image of Putin going on Russian television with a bucket of what he claims is debris from American cruise missiles, claiming they’ve attacked Russia and had better knock it off if nobody wants more escalation. That’s the kind of propaganda game that frightens me here.

I could see him doing this, but I think he’s got more plausible things he could or would try before something like this. There is always a risk to Putin that he would go on TV for something like this and it backfires. Even the Russians might or might not believe the US fired unprovoked on Russia…it would really be stretching things to the breaking point, especially when the US would have data that contradicts his narrative. I’d say, more plausible is Putin comes on and says Ukraine attacked Russian forces trying to aid the valiant ethnic Russians fighting to be free in the breakaway areas and Russia just has to rush in with it’s conveniently close military to save them from the vicious Ukrainians.

[SpacemanSpiff_II]

@XT

I can see that, though remember that when the Red Army came back into Ukraine, and despite all of the really nasty stuff the ethnic Russians had done to ethnic Ukrainians, over 4 million Ukrainians jumped to join the Red Army…so, we aren’t talking about even a majority of ethnic Ukrainians.

I suspect that sentiment changed over the course of the war, not that there was always that much pro-Russian sentiment.

In the classic work Babi Yar: A Document in the Form of a Novel, the author describes how his vehemently anti-communist grandfather was thrilled when the Germans conquered Kiev, but over the course of the German occupation he came to hate the Germans even more, and he was just as thrilled when the Red Army eventually reconquered the city.

[HMS_Irruncible]

@XT

3 days away, so…maybe. I’m not sure if the Olympics are really factoring into his timetable, though his Chinese partners might have asked him to hold off until they are over so as not to detract from all the glory the CCP is gaining over them.

Attacking during the Olympics would be a major breach of international norms. Russia has respected this in the past, though they’ve pushed it right to the breaking point (they hosted Olympics in Sochi and then marched into Crimea 3 days later). It’s advantageous for Russia to comply with norms of civility wherever possible, but it’s disadvantageous for a military to follow a pattern that telegraphs their strategy and movements.

I don’t know what they will choose but we’re potentially at the brink of a dramatic change in how Russia engages with international norms. Whether you like bobsledding or not, the Olympics have previously been a boundary where international conflicts are navigated or avoided. That may be about to come to an end.

@XT

3 days away, so…maybe. I’m not sure if the Olympics are really factoring into his timetable, though his Chinese partners might have asked him to hold off until they are over so as not to detract from all the glory the CCP is gaining over them.

China has no interest in Russia’s armed conflicts, and there’s no factual basis for this kind of repeated speculation. It’s just a thing that circulates among retired Tom Clancy fans in rural diners. China would like to see the West lose some power and prestige, but they have too much economic exposure to come anywhere near coordinating with Russia on an armed conflict vs. the west. It’s not a productive avenue of speculation.

[XT]

@HMS_Irruncible

China has no interest in Russia’s armed conflicts, and there’s no factual basis for this kind of repeated speculation. It’s just a thing that circulates among retired Tom Clancy fans in rural diners.

To be clear, what part of what I said is ‘speculation’? That China and Russia have deepened their partnership? Done joint military exercises together? That they are partners? That the Chinese desire to ensure nothing gets in the way of the Olympics would or could have an impact on Russia’s policies wrt invasion of Ukraine? You seem to be saying all of this is some sort of Tom Clancy fantasy or something, so trying to get a gauge on where you are coming from with this before I start spewing links. You are aware I assume that Xi and Putin recently met and signed a more inclusive 5-year partnership that includes a big package of economic and trade deals, including one to increase Russian gas to China by a hefty margin…right?

@HMS_Irruncible

China would like to see the West lose some power and prestige, but they have too much economic exposure to come anywhere near coordinating with Russia on an armed conflict vs. the west. It’s not a productive avenue of speculation.

I never said nor even implied anything about coordinating with Russia in an armed conflict with the west and NATO over Ukraine, so no idea where that’s coming from. At most I speculated that China MIGHT use this as a distraction to increase pressure on Taiwan or even try their long-planned Taiwanese adventure, but that’s really beyond the scope of this discussion, so I haven’t really said a lot about it as it’s not really relevant to what we are discussing.

[FlikTheBlue]

I got an alert from CNN about the 15 year old figure skater falling during her routine. My eyes noticed Russian and falls and my first thought was that the invasion was on .

[HMS_Irruncible]

For those insisting that only the US and NATO are beating the war drum ,Pravda reports Kremlin spokesman stating that Ukraine is intensifying military provocation:

Over the past 24 hours, we have heard reports saying that Russia has retained a huge strike potential on the border, but it goes about the territory of our own. Yet, no one, not a single Western representative , talks about the huge strike potential of the Ukrainian armed forces on the demarcation line. Coupled with provocative actions that have only intensified in the last day or several days, this is a very, very dangerous situation,” Putin’s official spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

[HMS_Irruncible]

@XT

You seem to be saying all of this is some sort of Tom Clancy fantasy or something, so trying to get a gauge on where you are coming from with this before I start spewing links. You are aware I assume that Xi and Putin recently met and signed a more inclusive 5-year partnership that includes a big package of economic and trade deals, including one to increase Russian gas to China by a hefty margin…right?

I’m aware of China and Russia’s geopolitical coordination, and this is why I kept my comments specifically narrow to them coordinating on Russia’s military adventures on their Western border. Cooperation in one area doesn’t imply cooperation in every area.

@XT

I never said nor even implied anything about coordinating with Russia in an armed conflict with the west and NATO over Ukraine, so no idea where that’s coming from. At most I speculated that China MIGHT use this as a distraction to increase pressure on Taiwan or even try their long-planned Taiwanese adventure, but that’s really beyond the scope of this discussion

That’s the coordination I was talking about, and it very much is outside of the scope of the discussion. There’s no suggestion that China is involved with this, or is going to get involved with this, or is shaping Kremlin policy w/r/t Ukraine, which is why I was gently suggesting that it’s unhelpful in this thread for you to keep grinding this axe.

[XT]

@HMS_Irruncible

That’s the coordination I was talking about, and it very much is outside of the scope of the discussion. There’s no suggestion that China is involved with this, or is going to get involved with this, or is shaping Kremlin policy, which is why I was gently suggesting that it’s unhelpful in this thread for you to keep grinding this axe.

Except I never said anything of the sort, so why ‘gently suggest’ it to me?? I don’t think China would involve itself militarily in Russia’s Ukraine adventure. What they WILL do, pretty obviously, is help Russia with the sanctions. Now, if you have an issue with that we can discuss it, but I’d say that the recent agreement between Putin and Xi was directly aimed at the contingency if Russia gets hit by a ton of sanctions. Historically, China has been more than willing to ignore sanctions for other countries, so I don’t see that as any big assertion or ridiculous speculation either. YMMV

@HMS_Irruncible

I’m aware of China and Russia’s geopolitical coordination, and this is why I kept my comments specifically narrow to them coordinating on Russia’s military adventures on their Western border. Cooperation in one area doesn’t imply cooperation in every area.

As did I. I only mentioned the Olympics because you did. And the fact that Putin met with Xi AT the Olympics seemed to be reasonable speculation that, perhaps, Xi might have asked Putin that IF he was going to invade, please don’t do so until the Olympics are over. Again…not seeing this as wildly speculative or off the wall.

You need to focus on what I am writing, not on what you think I think…because, just based on this exchange you really, really don’t know what I’m thinking wrt China’s peripheral involvement in this.

[HMS_Irruncible]

@XT

You need to focus on what I am writing, not on what you think I think…because, just based on this exchange you really, really don’t know what I’m thinking wrt China’s peripheral involvement in this.

I’m not going to be focusing on any of it. You inject “the CCP” into so many irrelevant contexts that there’s nothing interesting about it except maybe the open question of what’s behind this odd compulsion. Use that information however you wish.