Clearly, that’s the case.
Putin is probably rummaging through the speeches of a former Soviet ally for material to use the day Russia invades Ukraine in the face of “provocation”. I’ve substituted “Ukraine” and “Russia” where necessary.
“…there is nothing more modest or loyal than these proposals… These proposals have been refused. Not only were they answered first with mobilization, but with increased terror and pressure against our (Russian) compatriots… (Ukraine) was not prepared to settle the…question in a reasonable way… I made one more final effort to accept a proposal for mediation… For two whole days I sat with my Government and waited to see whether it was convenient for the (Russian) Government to send a plenipotentiary or not…But I am wrongly judged if my love of peace and my patience are mistaken for weakness or even cowardice… These proposals for mediation have failed…”
“…This night for the first time (Ukrainian) regular soldiers fired on our territory. Since 5.45 A.M. we have been returning the fire, and from now on bombs will be met by bombs.”
- Adolf Hitler, September 1, 1939
You don’t even have to go back that far, they used pretty much the exact same verbiage the last time they invaded Crimea.
It’s SouthPark’s old “Uncle Jimbo” defense… before you shoot the protected species, say the magic words “they’re coming right for us!” and then do as you please.
Article from the New Yorker about the limited deterance impact of Western sanctions.
Why the Threat of More Economic Sanctions May Not Deter Vladimir Putin (outline.com)
I, for one, like the idea that ownership be solved by the ability to take and hold.
I have seen footage of the Russian embassy in Ukraine. They are burning documents.
I heard the claim made recently that the reason the US and its allies are being so unusually candid about the intelligence they have is that it keeps Putin off-balance. According to this idea, Putin knows its true, and so he can’t “do that thing” and prove the west right.
I guess I just wondered whether anyone has any thoughts on that, or is knowledgeable enough about diplomacy to comment on whether that’s likely true/effective.
Really? I don’t see this mentioned anywhere.
This is very clearly what has been happening.
Russia have now decided to perform some ballistic and cruise missile launches this weekend, to be personally overseen by Putin. A very clear, “don’t forget we are a nuclear power” message.
That’s plausible, but it’s also possible that at a certain point Putin will just say screw it and go ahead and do whatever it is he plans to do.
From the BBC:
People in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, will be evacuated to Russia, the area’s leader has said.
Denis Pushilin, who is head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), announced on social media that Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving.
…The US and its allies have raised concerns that rising violence in the Donbas region could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he has seen a “deterioration of the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
Speaking at a news conference in the Kremlin, Putin made unsubstantiated accusations of “mass and systematic violation of human rights” and enshrining in law “discrimination of the Russian speaking population” in Ukraine.
Looks like Russia is setting up the pretext of human rights violations and this looks like part of it.
Not sure how effective it is or will be, but clearly that’s what we are doing. Basically, you have a general idea…we publish intel data to the media, and Putin et al see that we see what they are doing. It’s also going to make any attempt at Russia trying a surprise attack because of ‘genocide’ or whatever to fall flat. At this point, if Russia attacks everyone will have seen it coming and will know they have deliberately caused this situation. Whether that will give Putin pause is another question. Personally, I’d say something has stopped them…so far…and this is as plausible a reason as any (I think the possibility of sanctions before Russia got alternatives in place also helped). Putin only has a small window to do this effectively. If he waits until spring then Europe is likely to go all-in on energy sanctions, the ones that would hurt Russia the most.
All of this assumes this hasn’t been some sort of elaborate fake-out or game, though I have to say if that was the original plan that, too, failed as it doesn’t seem to have had the effect Russia was looking for, at least IMHO. I can’t see how they gained anything with this, not since maybe January or even December when the impact was greatest and the chance of real concessions highest.
I was actually almost a week ago now, but there are tons of articles on it. This was the first hit I got on Google from The Hill if you want to read a bit about it. I’ll just quote the headline so as not to bring down Mod wrath:
US Embassy in Kyiv destroying documents as drawdown underway
Yeah, this has been his tact for a while now, but he’s really been hitting hard on the human rights violations and ‘genocide’ angle in the past week or so. There is still fighting going on in the breakaway areas, and I saw a report that Russian-backed rebels hit a town this week (I can’t recall if it was a nursing home or a school for nurses…it was something like that).
Well shit
Thanks! I thought it was happening right now and didn’t see it mentioned in “current events” headlines anywhere.
On second thought, that’s for the US embassy, Paul said it was the Russian embassy.
lol, you are right. And all of the articles are on that, so…no idea where the Russians destroying documents thingy is coming from. Sorry about that.
The US embassy doing it is worrying, the Russian embassy doing it would be down right terrifying.
I’m assuming any country shutting down/pulling out of it’s Ukrainian embassy would be burning/destroying stuff. It’s SOP.