Yes, but the Russian embassy pulling put of Ukraine would be a sign of imminent invasion. (unless it already pulled of some time ago and I didn’t knew?)
They are still operating, but they have moved a lot of personnel out. Their embassy is in Kiyv so not really any surprise.
True. Just as 190,000 Russian troops standing on the Ukrainian border are also a sign of imminent invasion. That’s what has a number of people upset/concerned - multiple indications of imminent invasion.
It’s a strange feeling to watch Russia’s pre-invasion subterfuges happen in real time, right out of the Soviet playbook…
…And all we can do, really, is brace for it.
I do hope that when this is over, the West will make Russia a pariah state for many years.
And an additional concern is that while they were telling everyone they were moving troops out, they were actually moving more troops in. That’s a pretty big concern.
Exactly, if/when the Russian embassy pulls out of Kyiv then we’ll know it’s on.
It’s fairly possible that Russia is doing it just to screw with them and/or to take over Belarus.
But there’s no good reason to scrub the embassy unless you’re expecting people to be raiding it soon.
If Russia is just running a training mission and they’re abiding by the Minsk agreement then there’s no reason for anyone to raid the Russian embassy.
So what is the best detailed analysis of what a full-fledged Russian invasion would look like ? Wiki says that Ukraine has 215k active personnel and 250k reserves so I would imagine they would be tough to beat. Particularly since they will be fighting to defend their country whereas the Russians will be fighting for what exactly?
I am still skeptical that a full-scale invasion will happen but if it does what would it look like?
I don’t understand that logic.
Are we thinking that Russia wants to take over the* Ukraine lock, stock, and barrel, or just the eastern half? The latter seems much more sustainable given the population, and leaving an aggrieved but considerably smaller rump Ukraine would probably actually work.
*I know it’s no longer the done thing to say “the Ukraine,” and I know about the lack of definite articles in Ukrainian and Russian, but it just sounds wrong to me to say “Ukraine” without the “the.”
You become accustomed to it the more you do it. I don’t notice anymore.
In both cases the Russian embassy would be evacuated just before the invasion I think.
Is this the story?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-backed-artillery-strike-hits-kindergarten-no-injuries-2022-02-17/
Whether they plan to go through with an invasion or not, I’m surprised they haven’t evacuated the Russian embassy already. You might trust the Ukrainian government to respect its sovereignty but an angry mob won’t observe such niceties.
Like a lot of this, it might be getting mixed up in translation. I thought it was a nursing home or nursing school, but I guess it could be a nursery (if that’s the same as a kindergarten). At least there were no injuries.
Thanks for the link, regardless! 
I think this is the most plausible for the current plan, though I suppose it will depend on how well and quickly Russia manages to achieve this. My guess, from earlier in the thread, is at a minimum they are thinking to incorporate the breakaway regions into the Russian Federation, the same way they did Crimea. If that goes particularly well, then I think they might push that to all of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper. They might also threaten or even attack Kyiv if they want to try and decapitate Ukraine and force them to either surrender everything or everything that they take. I agree with you that taking and holding western Ukraine would be…problematic. And costly. But that depends on how hard Ukrainians fight and how much damage they inflict on the invading Russians.
I found this BBC article that goes over some of the invasion options. I won’t quote from it, but if you look at the third option, titled Striking from the East and the map, that’s what I was talking about earlier in the thread.
I don’t think that’s SOP. I believe the Japanese ambassador was still in the US during the Pearl Harbor attack, for example.
I assume the Ukrainians have their own people in Russia, and it would be in their interest to protect the Russian diplomats. Plus, I imagine their are international laws about this.
May be not evacuated, though I think countries at declared wars usually retire their embassies, but surely they’ll burn all secret documents.
Why does Russia need a pretext? Its allies don’t care about Putin’s reasons, and its adversaries won’t believe it. Who is the intended audience of this pretext?
I take it you don’t watch conservative media.