Uh, good luck with that - the Ukrainians show absolutely no sign of backing down at this point. Very clearly a lot of them are willing to go down fighting rather than surrender.
Case in point:
That only works with some level of cooperation from the general population.
Otherwise, it’s a long and costly occupation that never ends.
There is no doubt that Russia could completely destroy Ukraine and everyone and everything in it, but I’m not sure they can hold it as a going concern.
Obviously information is nebulous and hard facts are scarce, but there have been persistent stories about the Russian forces in Ukraine having a surprisingly large proportion of conscripts. One would think that a fast-and-hard blitzkrieg type strategy would require experienced troops, but (again bearing in mind the fog of conflict) this seems not to be the case.
This is a reminder of one of the dilemmas facing an autocrat: He needs to maintain a large standing fighting force, distributed throughout the country, as a backstop for rapidly quelling any significant dissent. However large a military he creates, he can’t just deploy it willy-nilly; a large part of it is required to maintain internal order. It’s not at all comparable to the situation with the American military — the population of Austin isn’t going to start getting ideas if the majority of Fort Hood gets mobilized and deployed somewhere else. So while Putin has nearly a million soldiers at his disposal, he can’t simply empty his bases of troops and send everyone to the west, because he can’t risk letting a local color revolution get even the smallest amount of traction. He has other elements of the internal security apparatus, of course, but the military still serves as the backstop, in a way it doesn’t in the U.S.
What’s more, you can’t send the hardened long-service veterans to the war and leave the newly-impressed soldiers manning the internal bases, because inexperienced conscripts may hesitate to fire upon their own population. We’re seeing sporadic reports that Russia’s conscripted soldiers already aren’t thrilled to be shooting at their Ukrainian cousins. Presumably they’d be even more reluctant to gun down a crowd in Saint Petersburg.
If Putin really did want to stomp Ukraine flat under half a million Russian boots, he could have done it. It’s curious that he didn’t, and that he is apparently relying on a lot of relatively green fighters. He definitely still could mobilize more extensively, of course, especially if he thinks it’s the only way to prevent a disaster, both in terms of military objectives and domestic politics. But given the context, I wonder if he was trying to avoid that gamble.
I also wonder if there’s another key autocratic dilemma at work here — the disinformation bubble in which the tyrant can become unwittingly trapped. If you demand absolute allegiance not just in action but in thought, if you brook no disagreement or unaligned ideas, you may find yourself surrounded by people whose primary skill is telling you what you want to hear, and establishing a persistent culture of self-preserving dishonesty being passed up the chain. Putin would hardly be the first dictator to base his decision-making on a largely fictional landscape of facts. If it’s true that Russian forces are getting bogged down, whether by stiffer-than-expected resistance or their own operational mistakes — and it absolutely remains to be seen whether these hazy reports are borne out in the long run — then it could be a result of Putin having been given too-rosy evaluations of the gap between his military’s strength and Ukrainian weakness.
To be clear, I think it’s far, far too early to put real credence in the hypothesis that Russia is currently engaged in an enthusiastic act of stepping on its own dick, and that mobs of Ukrainian partisans will wind up chasing the Russian army out of the country. I’m seeing some hope along those lines, and I find it unlikely. It’s more probable that Putin doubles down, as noted above, even with all the attendant risk, and that things get much, much worse before they get better.
Nevertheless, it does seem like things aren’t exactly going as Putin expected or planned, and if that’s the case, the above seems like a reasonable basis for understanding why.
I seem to recall that it was common in ancient (?) times for the more veteran and loyal troops to stand in the rear - to kill any of their own people trying to retreat.
I don’t believe that Putin has a serious issue with dissent at home, at least not at this point. Regardless of what we all think of him, he’s pretty popular with a majority of Russians…again, at lease he is to this point. I don’t think there is a huge backlash, yet, over this military adventure either. My feeling is most Russians are either for this, in an abstract sort of way, or aren’t opposed at least.
As for a large proportion of conscripts, I haven’t heard anything like that wrt their invasion forces at least. I think the impression might be coming from the fact that Russia hasn’t actually sent in the bulk of their forward deployed forces…yet. I think this has a lot to do with people saying that Russia is moving much slower than expected, and that the Ukrainians are holding them much better.
Certainly, if Russia wants to stomp Ukraine flat with no intention of holding anything, they can do that. Where all of this gets dicey is if they actually want to take and hold at least some of the territory. They can fairly easily do that in the breakaway areas…after all, presumably their ‘allies’ are already there, and can keep a lid on the population that isn’t ethnic Russia and/or isn’t on board with being part of the Russian empire…sorry, federation. As they move beyond those areas though it’s going to get more and more difficult, especially with the forces they have. 190,000 sounds like a lot of troops…but not to take, hold and keep down 45 million.
The thing is, you can hope that it works out that way. But you plan on it not working out the way you want it to, unless you are a complete idiot. Which, I’d be willing to say, Putin et al have kind of been, IMHO and FWIW. I’m not seeing a lot of genius or even smarts in any of this.
In any case, even IF they were to decapitate the current government and install in a puppet, it’s not going to be easy with what they have, not unless anyone believes that a large number of Ukrainians outside of the breakaway areas are going to cooperate and actively help this new puppet government in keeping down the other 40+ million unhappy Ukrainians. And this is before the inevitable civilian casualties.
I think recognizing the breakaways lays the groundwork for Russia to directly annex that territory (not just what the rebels had before the conflict, but everything they claimed as well). My WAG is Putin et al plan to essentially annex all that territory plus a nice wide corridor to the Crimea directly, then, IF they manage to take down the Ukrainian government, to try and install a new puppet government in Ukraine then call it a victory.
That’s the part of this that still doesn’t make sense to me. That’s enough to occupy a very small and generally friendly section of Ukraine, but it’s nowhere near enough IMHO to conquer and hold all of it. If you’re going to try to Rumsfeld this on the cheap, why send in your forces piecemeal so they’re more likely to be defeated in detail?
No idea man. It’s the part that doesn’t make sense to me either. Like I’ve said before, my WAG is that his intention is to annex the breakaway regions only. Maybe he plans to basically smack Ukraine down, hurt them, destroy much of their military, then pull back into the regions that are more pro-Russian and sue for terms, thinking he’s get great terms from a defeated Ukraine, perhaps even that some Ukrainians military types will rise up and overthrow the government and side with Putin.
If so, it doesn’t seem to be working out that way so far, and I’m not seeing a lot of of upside for Russia in what seems to be happening globally. The Europeans in particular aren’t acting as I would have expected, and I seriously doubt Russia or Putin thought they would either. I think this was a major wake up call for the west, and I think they woke up…big time.
I think one factor was there are still people who remember 1939-1945 in Europe who started having flashbacks and snapped into “never again” mode.
Also, Putin’s lies were exposed for considerable time ahead of the invasion.
Putin declaring he wanted to restore the Russian Empire didn’t help either.
And the Ukrainians have been just amazing.
Putin decided to follow Mook Chivalry rules?
Ukraine is asking for foreign volunteers. But I am old and fat and far away.
Here’s a video report from Fox earlier today. The Ukrainians seem to be be determined to resist by any available means.
I do wonder what would happen if several dozen older ladies with headscarves on went and stood in front of these tanks and personnel carriers. Then cursed them out, and told them to go back to their Baba and ask them what the right thing to do is.
Essentially shame them. How many of them are willing to kill a group of ladies that look and sound like their Baba back home? How many of them are willing to shoot an old man who looks and sounds like their Dido back home? An old man who is imploring them to do what is right?
Yeah, that’s why Putin wants troops from places other than Russia and is sending in Chechens.
Someone needs to remind them of history, and that “I was just following orders” is not a good defense when up against a war crimes court.
“I was just following orders” is never a good defense, war crimes or not.
Perhaps “successful” is more appropriate word choice?
Never “good” but also not likely to work against the charge.
I don’t think the plan is to conquer and absorb Ukraine, except some of the breakaway parts. Nor do they expect to be the ones policing Ukraine. Once they have removed the objectionable Governments and replaced them with someone more appropriate, they will sign a Treaty of Friendship/Status of Forces agreement they will withdraw most of their troops, except for those to be stationed on the NATO Frontiers, and then call it a day,
For accused troops of a defeated military. As General Curtis LeMay, USA/USAF said
I suppose if I had lost the war, I would have been tried as a war criminal.