What makes you think the millions of Ukrainians who are fighting the Russians tooth and nail are going to just accept this puppet government instead of fighting it with the same vigor they’ve got right now?
This war either ends with Zelenskyy as the Savior of Ukraine, or as a martyr for the resistance that will keep on fighting until the Russians and their puppets are gone.
How exactly is this plan supposed to work? How does Yanukovych or whoever they pick to be Putin’s Puppet in Kyiv maintain control? Either Russian troops stay behind to prop up the puppet, in which case they’ll be policing the potential insurgency, or the puppet will instantly be facing the same fate as Yanukovych the last time round. With Crimea gone, even before this invasion the Ukrainian people were on balance less favourably inclined to Russia than in 2014. Siphon off Donetsk and area on top of that, add in the bad blood from this unprovoked invasion, and there’s absolutely no hope for a Russian puppet without extensive military & police support from Moscow.
I’m struggling to see how this ends with Ukraine being less of a threat to Russian national security after the war than it was before.
I’d also be very surprised if this doesn’t end with significantly more NATO troops stationed near Putin’s borders than there were before the war, along with a general increase in military spending in numerous NATO nations. If the intention of this invasion was to convince NATO to back up off him, it seems like Putin has erred in his assumptions on how the west would respond.
That’s their (likely) plan. Whether or not it succeeds, is another issue.
And as much as you might like to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian, most Ukrainians, aren’t. Sure they may hate the Russians, but it’s the places you gleefully talk about being locations for urban ward are places they have to live in. As long as most have food in the table, safety in going out, and generally can live everyday life, they aren’t going to take active measures.
Iraq took nearly two years to fully blow up, Afghanistan nearly five years, in both of its superpower occupation. It’s possible that the Russians are going to be as stupid as the Americans were. Or as heavy handed as the Soviets were in Afghanistan. The yes. You are looking at a long insurgency. Fun times for Europe.
I’m not so certain of that. The BBC has noted that stations set up to intake volunteers for the defense forces have had long lines of people signing up for it. It appears that a lot of Ukrainians are not waiting for Russia to take over before they resist. Remember, the populations of Iraq and Afghanistan really weren’t strong supporters of their government. The people of Ukraine seem to have a decidedly different view of theirs, even before Russia decided to invade.
If installing a puppet and leaving him on his own while withdrawing Russian forces is Putin’s plan, he’s a lot dumber than I thought.
I’m not gleeful about anything related to this whatsoever. I hate everything about the entire situation, aside from the possibility that it may be backfiring on a murderous thug.
I don’t like the idea of this going very badly for Putin.
There needs to be a way to save face. You don’t want to shame the Bear. If things go very badly, there’s no incentive for the West to try and find a diplomatic solution which leads to:
No incentive for the West to try and learn from their mistakes. And learn some fucking history too. You think NATO should be able to admit any and everyone? Sure…in a void…but historically, Russia doesn’t like to be hemmed in. You have to recognize that. Work on making the world a friendlier place…not a place like Twitter.
Fuck caring about whether Russia wants to be hemmed in. Russia doesn’t want to be “hemmed in” because of what? Because it wants to invade and subjugate it’s neighbors? I don’t like a lot of things, but the world is what it is. If Russia doesn’t want the rest of the world to join NATO, they should stop making it look so fucking attractive.
Oh, and regarding shame? If you don’t want to experience shame, don’t commit to shameful bullshit. If this doesn’t end in nuclear oblivion, Putin deserves every bit of shame he receives. The Bear is pretty starved for respect in this day and age.
That doesn’t reflect the facts we’re seeing on the ground. Lest you forget, the Ukrainian people have overthrown Russian puppet regimes twice in the last twenty years. They’re not going to roll over for another puppet just because he promises to make the trains run on time, especially not after what Russia has done to them now.
If Russia props up a puppet government and then pulls out, he’ll be gone a lot faster than the Taliban ran out the Ghani regime, and if they stay they’re looking at a long and bloody insurgency that will make Vietnam look like a summer picnic.
God damn I find myself agreeing with the post for once. What’s next? Dogs and cats living together.
Congratulations, Putin, you have united the world. We all hate you.
This is the best tactical analysis of the war I have seen so far. As often, a lot of it boils down to training and NCO quality. The key paras:
But by all accounts, the Russians appear to be “noticeably reluctant” to dismount and close with the Ukrainian defenders. We should be careful to not paint with too broad of a brush here. There are examples of Russian troops performing well in the fierce combat of the last three days. But there is clearly a pattern developing.
This is a morale problem, a training problem, a leadership problem, and a will-to-fight problem. None of these are factors that can be easily or quickly fixed.
I found a Twitter feed that is trying to document destroyed Russian equipment.
Antidotes are not data, but darn it seems they are having a problem with crews walking home.
People just really love to write total fanfic about other countries, don’t they. Polling in Russia is widely regarded as reliable and independent pollsters like Levada are highly respected. They’ve been running Putin approval polling since 1999 and his approval has hovered between 60 - 90% for the majority of that time, higher than any US president post-honeymoon period since GW Bush. We don’t yet have any polling since the invasion has started and indications are that it will decrease Putin’s approval but not to the extent that random parts of Russia are going to become breakaway republics.
Americans love to imagine that the citizens of their autocratic enemies as benighted, huddled masses crushed under the cruel thumb of oppression because they get to imagine themselves as the noble liberators who will eventually come in and bring freedom and democracy. But if you go to places like Russia, China or Iran, you find a citizenry that has a diverse array of opinions and many areas which they believe the government has done a better or worse job but by and large understand and approve of the general direction of the country and its leadership.
That Americans can with a straight face write about the possibility of color revolutions in St Petersburg just shows to the Russian people how propagandized America is and how little they should trust Western media on information about Russia and Russian interests.
I don’t expect breakaway republics.
I expect the kleptocrats who’ve been cut off from their money to have Putin whacked.
How bout we try and prevent that nuclear destruction. As for “because of what”…I said so, history.
A week ago I would have wholeheartedly agree that the numbers are on Russia’s side.
We’re now 4 days in. Do you know of any important Russian strategic or tactical gains? I don’t. But every morning, I do see people in many Ukranian cities saying “we’re still here”, sending videos with charged phones and connected internet. I find that very striking.
From other sources I’ve read, Russia only had about 10 days of weapons and equipment resupply on hand for this operation. Even before sanctions it would have taken months to restock, but the sanctions only get stronger every day.
My working theory is that Russia was hoping for “shock and awe” to force defenders to retreat, making widespread strikes in depth to achieve it. Ukranians would despair that this conflict isn’t just in east, it’s everywhere. Fearing there’s no safe place for them, they’d agitate for regime change to save themselves.
If you have made correct assessment of your own strength and enemy strength, it’s not crazy theory. But Russia seems to have done incredibly bad on this.
Most of these thoughts come out of long conversations with my Belarusian neighbor. He spent his whole life in and around Minsk before establishing split residency between there and here in Western Europe a few years ago. He’s been generously sharing his views and perspective with us, starting with the protests in Belarus centered on the presidential election in 2020.
He’s said more than once that polls showing support of an autocratic government shouldn’t be trusted, that this positive opinion is mostly illusory. It’s not that the polls are fabricated, and it’s not that people consciously lie to pollsters out of fear that they’re secretly government agents fishing for turncoats; it’s that when you live in a repressive regime, your parroting of the official line becomes simply an unthinking reflex. It’s not real support, though — it’s a head-down, go-along mindset that gets you through the day when things aren’t too bad. But it also melts away when crisis-level events exceed people’s level of tolerance.
Anyway, he would be very surprised to be characterized as a man suffering from the delusions of American propaganda.
This. How about the Russians learn a little history? You think the Czechs and Hungarians appreciated being told how they could govern their country? You think a wall to keep East Germans IN wasn’t going to leave people eager to send you packing? Maybe if Russia wasn’t always treating its neighbors like this they wouldn’t be so eager to join NATO.
How many nations has NATO had to invade to make sure they stayed part of the alliance?
Are all this reports about Russian tanks running out of gas real? I thought one thing Russia had plenty of was gas.
…in Russia. Not necessarily on the road to Kiev.