It’s still early days for this thing, though it does appear that Putin et al badly miscalculated both their ability to win this thing on the cheap (Russia still hasn’t sent in most of its forces) and western response. There is a lot of potential here for this thing to go sideways on Putin and he and his top leadership posing for gunfire…or shipped off to stand trial for war crimes. That would be the extreme of the unintended consequences, but on the other side of the scale, even if Russia manages to get Ukraine to surrender and is able to put in their own puppet I think Russia is going to be badly hurt, economically by all of this. Much worse than Putin thought would be the case. Somewhere in the middle is where we will probably end up, and while Putin probably doesn’t get deposed, Russia and he come out of this in much, much worse shape in all categories.
The one scary thing in all of this is Putin is already reaching for the nuclear card. Sure, it’s a threat that he’s trying to use to intimidate, but that he’s reaching for it already to try and bludgeon western nations into backing off of the sanctions and probably to pressure Ukraine to surrender (or some other loopy idea he’s got) is troubling at this stage.
His biggest danger at the moment is losing power, under internal pressure. I expect that the “nuclear deterrence” talk is addressed to those in his immediate vicinity more than it is to those outside the border. It’s like a guy with a live grenade, holding the clip in and daring someone to come at him.
Putin’s going to need to be cautious about the food he’s eating, I would say.
It’s possible that one of his folks will stab him in the back…literally…but I wouldn’t count on it, at least not yet. But things are definitely not going as Putin planned, and I think one of the things that I’ve heard that should be most troubling is that Russian soldiers don’t seem to be that into this whole campaign. If that’s true and were I Putin…I’d be seriously concerned about that. As well as some of the reports I’ve seen about some of his billionaire buddies having more than a little cold feet about all of this. As the pressure goes up on those guys, especially if they are sanctions and cut off from access to western Europe or anywhere else they would actually want to go, that’s going to increase the pressure on Putin and his regime. Easy victory where Ukraine just rolls over and the west does nothing, allowing Putin to look like the master and humiliate the west…that’s what they want and probably what they were told would happen. This? Not so much…
It seems to me that threatening a course that may lead to mutually assured destruction makes those in the immediate vicinity more acutely consider taking him out quickly than to deter them.
On a side issue, I wish that the press would STOP referring to banking restrictions as the “financial nuclear weapon” or similar phrase. They are in NO way equivalent.
Crimea is a done deal - that’s the easy one. Donetsk and Luhansk is tough but in the face of comprehensive defeat, I’d expect Ukraine to eventually cave. They haven’t occupied half of that territory since 2014 anyway and had no real prospects of regaining it in the face of Russian support for the separatists. Those folks really don’t want to be part of Ukraine.
But “enshrining neutrality” and any sort of demilitarization should be a deal killer. That’s functionally surrendering sovereignty.
Yeah, this would be a red line for Ukraine. Even the first 3 you mentioned would be tough for Ukraine to ratify, but I agree that faced with mounting civilian casualties and costs, they might consider them. But demilitarizing and forced ‘neutrality’ (which would really mean going fully into Russia’s sphere) just don’t seem like something the Ukrainians could do and remain a sovereign, independent state.
It’s a serious demand by Russia and might be one of their red lines. I don’t think it’s a staged demand just so they can claim they tried…I think Putin et al really thought they could pressure Ukraine and even NATO into this before the conflict started. Now? I seriously doubt anyone thinks this will happen short of a full military collapse and surrender in Ukraine. This could actually still happen, but would render it mainly a moot point, as Russia will almost certainly be trying to install a puppet state in that will be completely in Russia’s orbit from here on out (well, for as long as they last anyway).
I think it is serious AND it might be a pretext to keep fighting. Russia really does seem to be paranoid as fuck about being encircled. That this is partially predicated on Russia not being as able to pull their 800 lb bully act on their neighbors is sorta neither here nor there from a Russian POV. Far as they are concerned they are the natural regional hegemons as successors to the USSR as well the Russian Empire and woe to those that impede that impulse. But they also worry defensively as well.
But if Ukraine is going to be “unreasonable” they might as well take out that problem the old-fashioned way. No more Ukraine and that southern border becomes the Black Sea. Much more comforting.