A fair proposal to end the war, that Moscow will consider totally unacceptable, would be this:
The NATO point is probably non-negotiable for Russia, they seem to see it in the same way the USA saw the missiles in Cuba in the Missile Crisis.
They maybe forced to accept it (since they can’t “blockade” Ukraine) but it would signal that they’ve been defeated.
Even if Putin gets all those concessions from Ukraine and “brings the boys home”, the Russian people are still going to ask, “Where’s my Facebook and PayPal and why is my money worthless?”
Russia has maybe a week or two left to win the war before their economy has collapsed so far that they will face internal revolts that they cannot put down as their army is occupied elsewhere. These demands are a way for Russia to hope to get out of this before they’re really forked. To me, it seems a sign that they are losing. They know they cannot get all of Ukraine in time, and would never be able to hold it, so this is an attempt to salvage something from this disaster.
IMO, sanctions should not be lifted until Russia leaves Crimea and Putin is removed as president.
Russia’s demands not only amount to complete surrender, but essentially guarantee Russia will simply invade again once they’ve replenished their military and can come up with an excuse.
I don’t think this is nearly true. Russians aren’t going to starve in two weeks, and you might be surprised how much fervent support Putin has with a big swathe of the population.
The fact Russia has offered to evacuate war zones by moving Ukrainians TO RUSSIA should tell everyone how sincere they are.
There’ve been a few stories in the past few days about Ukrainians with family members in Russia who refuse to believe them when they describe what’s going on. If you believe state TV over your own family, well, you’re not likely to be heading to the Kremlin with pitchforks and torches any time soon.
On the other hand, the Russians are taking pretty significant losses and it’s not clear that they can replace any of the materiel they’re losing. If this turns into a contest between whether the West can supply Stingers and Javelins faster than the Russians can build SU-25s and T-90s, well, there’s only one way that’s going to end. It’s not at all clear to me that the Russians can stay in the field terribly long. Obviously hellacious for the Ukrainians in the meantime though.
I think a lot of the people who would be at least a little sympathetic towards the pitchfork idea would rather be, or in fact are, simply leaving Russia. That might also not help in the potential overthrow.
Pitchforks aren’t necessary, just lack of participation. Draftees don’t show when called up. Bureaucrats stop coming to work. Police refuse to put down protests. Generals refuse to commit war crimes. That’s how you bring down a government; not fantasies about storming the Kremlin.
I honestly cannot think of an example of a government falling this way.
If you study Russian history they have always been “paranoid as fuck” about their borders. So when they say it’s a security concern for them I believe that they believe and it’s not just air. But just because I understand that does not mean I think they are right or in the right. They’re in the wrong and I’d love to seen the men who engineered this atrocity go down in (non-global-nuclear) flames.
Nope, sorry, that’s not “fair” and it rewards the Putin crowd for killing tens of thousands and blasting cities to rubble.
Here’s my counter offer:
It needs to be shown that a nation doing this sort of landgrab will be made WORSE off after the dust settles and that the men at the top will personally be held responsible.
But that’s just me.
Mind you, they’re running out of men at the top.
That’s not the top I was referring to - the generals are attempting to enact the orders of the rulers, Putin and his circle.
Maybe “fair” isn’t the best adjective, but your negotiation proposal has to be acceptable, or have enough sweeteners thrown into it, for your opposing party to have any reason to accept it.
Your proposal may sound great (to allied ears), but it would just result in the Russian negotiators walking out the room.
Seems about as reasonable as what Russia was demanding. “HahahaNO, you DON’T get to be an independent country. Welcome back to being a Soviet-style client state.”
Ask me if I give a fuck about how butt-hurt the Russian government and/or its toadies might be about anything. People who invade other countries for no damn good reason, deliberately target civilians, and who lay mines in “humanitarian corridors” are no longer entitle to dignity or saving face.
Well, your idea amounts to a fantasy bitch-slapping of Russia (which you probably know), not a realistic negotiation. I certainly appreciate and share the feeling of wanting to bitch-slap Russia and hard, but it just wouldn’t fly in a real life diplomatic context.
Yes, well, I’m never going to be party to a diplomatic negotiation so it hardly matters how I feel about it.
I’d like to see Putin escape for a bit and live in a hole in the ground under a tarpaulin for two weeks. Then he can be pulled out of his rat-hole and sent to court in his filth-encrusted clothing.
I watched an old Frontline interview with Masha Gessen in which she talked a bit about Putin’s upbringing. He was born and raised in Leningrad, and his parents were survivors of the WWII siege - and they had lost one child before the war, and a second during the siege. It’s difficult to overestimate the effect of those experiences on those who went through them, and the intergenerational trauma is not to be sneezed at, either. And let me tell you from experience, you don’t ever cut in front of one of those ladies who survived the siege in line in a grocery store - they will break your ribs.
Gessen made the case that Putin indeed sees any encroachment on what he perceives as Russia’s sphere of influence as a threat. She is definitely no fan of his, and she also went on about his bizarre relationship with material goods and such, but I tend to agree that it’s entirely possible that his world view is such that he genuinely sees Ukraine joining NATO as some sort of existential threat to Russia.
Somewhat along the same line, my local newspaper ran this cartoon today. (If anybody wonders, the artist’s name is Tim Campbell.)
