Lukashenko has had a front-row seat to this whole shit-show. I’m sure he was happy to pal around with Putin when that made him look strong, but now, after a year of Russian incompetence on display for everyone to see, does this still make him look strong?
It’s easy to be Mussolini to Putin’s Hitler in 1939. Not so much in 1944. The real question is, does Lukashenko realize this, and is he looking for some way to un-hitch his wagon from Putin? My plan for stealing the nukes pretty much relies on this being an official, but deeeeeeply secret, plan of the whole Belarussian government, so Lukashenko has to be on-board, or whoever replaces him has to be able to con Putin into believing they’re Lukashenko 2.0, all the while planning on stabbing Putin in the back.
So we won’t really know if the plan is in motion until either Putin catches on, and takes back the nukes before Belarus can compromise them, or Belarus announces success publicly. Until then, from the outside, Belarus will look like Russia’s strongest ally.
Who do you think would be easier to bribe: American officers in 1970s Europe, or Russian officers in 2020s Belarus?
In the end, all security is dependent upon the integrity of the people tasked with carrying out the security plans. And the other lesson we’ve learned this year is that the Russia military is deeply corrupt on essentially every level.
On the other hand, nukes are… different. They confer vliyaniye- clout. They may be the one thing in the world more valuable than money itself. In a system that above all else worships power, I can’t see a Russian general selling nukes for any amount of mere money.
I would not say that it is “safe to assume” anything about the readiness of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Solid propellants used in boosters are generally pretty stable as long as they are protected against high humidity and we regularly fly solid motors that were poured and cured four or five decades ago. The viability of the neutron initiator, tritium boosted fission systems, and other supporting systems such as batteries is unknown but even if only a fraction of the arsenal is actually functional, each weapon represents a potential to completely destroy a city center, strategic target, or kill hundreds of thousands of people immediately with indefinitely effects from fallout and secondary radioactivity.
There are more ways to bribe someone than just money. “Hey, Comrade General Nuclear Specialist, rather than being Putin’s lapdog, and going down with him, how about you become Belarus’ new Nuclear Czar? Comes with your own gold-plated toilet and washing machine, plus all the vodka you can drink!”
Do you think any of them are “patriots” now? It’s not about Belarus per se, it’s about their own personal power. Better to be a King in Belarus than a Putin stooge in Moscow, even if you don’t give a rat’s ass about anyone else in Belarus.
In case I wasn’t clear enough: those outcomes are quite bad, and shouldn’t be casually risked on thin speculation.
The point is that these weapons are likely suffering from some degree of neglect, and that some forms of the neglect (such as absent, disabled, or malfunctioning PAL) could actually make them more dangerous.
The timing of Putin’s decision to deploy nukes in Belarus is interesting, coming very soon after his meeting with President Xi. Supposedly the summit did not go well for Putin, and China quickly afterwards announced a summit with the central Asian states which Russia regards as under its sphere of influence (and without Russia being invited).
And now it’s being reported that the Chinese are unhappy with Putin’s Belarusian move, presumably not only because it promotes instability but also because it could set a precedent which China is not in a position to take advantage of.
Sounds like Xi wasn’t / isn’t quite ready for Putin to kick over the chessboard. Which it appears is about what Putin is threatening behind closed doors.
Xi’s happy with some degree of Putin keeping the West off balance and fully occupied militarily. But as with Kim, there’s a degree of reckless lunacy that upsets China’s plan for domination on a longer time scale with lower risks. Xi is far less patient than were his immediate 2 or 3 predecessors. But he’s no nihilist and is not delusional / deluded by his own apparatchiks.
You appeal for them to stop and go to DEFCON 5. But it’s not going to happen, both countries rely so much on each other. However you’d suppose it’s possible that if Russia starts to break up China will move to snatch back Outer Manchuria which the Chinese will not have forgotten was snatched from them by the Russian Empire in the 19th Century. Plus the Chinese can solve a lot of their resource problems by taking over parts of Russia north of their shared border.
Wait, which defcon is the high alert number? Not really sure how they work probably just saw it in the movie War Games. The only way to win is not to play!
Even if you are not targeted, nobody gets a free ride.
Multiple detonations in earth’s Northern and Southern Hemispheres would probably end the human race.
Nobody ever learns. You make your highest alert level the highest numeric value so that you have room to grow. Otherwise, sooner or later people will want an alert level higher than DEFCON 1, and we’ll get DEFCON 0. And then that won’t be enough and we’ll get DEFCON -1. It never stops.