In April of 2007, we discussed upcoming national election and “the surge”. Evil One predicted that by
here post 188. I immediately (or at least at post 190), said “wanna bet”? , and started defining terms, “most” = 2/3, “summer 2008” we eventually hashed out to mean August 1, 2008. Evil One accepts the challenge and terms, stating in post 193
on the next page, we come up with a consensus of how many troops were there as of April of 2007, so we could accurately figure out the 2/3 gone, 1/3 still there numbers (post 209), I spell it out in post 210, that at the time of the bet, our best number was 141,000 troops in Iraq, which would mean 2/3 of 141000 = 94000, leaving 47000 in Iraq by August 1 2008.
Evil One agreed in post 212.
I know it’s still mid July, and there’s about two whole weeks left until August 1, but right now, there seems to be 140,000 still there: Last year Mr. Bush accepted General Petraeus’s recommendation to gradually withdraw the five extra combat brigades that he had ordered to Iraq. The last of those, Second Brigade, Third Infantry Division, is completing its withdrawal this month, bringing the number of combat brigades to 15 and the overall troop levels to about 140,000.. So, since April of last year, they increased the number of troops again to a peak of 170,000 (reference same), and now, 2 weeks before August 1, they’re down to 1000 fewer than there were in April of 2007.
Whaddya think? can they pull out another 84000 troops in 2 weeks? Of course, same article suggests that current plan is to
So that Evil One’s prediction of 47,000 inside Iraq probably won’t even be true by the time Bush leaves office.
For the record, I will donate proceeds from bet to benefit the vets.
I so fucking wanted to lose this bet.