We’re 20 games in. That’s 12.5% of the season. We’re getting to the point where the sample size won’t kill us while doing projections for individual (and team) stats.
And the Cubs are in first place.
Don’t jinx it.
Given their pythagorean standings they should have won two more games than they have.
They’re up by 2.5 games in the NL Central, being chased by the Houston, Pittsburgh and St Louis.
Could it be real?
Could it be?
The pitching looks pretty good right now. And the hitting isn’t terrible.
As a fellow Cubbie fan, this drives me nuts. We start out well EVERY year, but the later it goes, the worse we get, hence the horrible Completely Useless By September.
Well, aren’t there a lot of OTHER apocolyptic things happening? It makes sense.
Seriously, if Zambrano gets a hold of himself instead of flipping out every time he walks someone, and if Kerry and Prior can keep it up…I see us in the playoffs.
I foresee injuries being our only problem, because when it gets warmer outside, the bats are going to HEAT UP.
I do think the pitching is for real, but the hitters are over-achieving a bit, actually. (just not for power, really) The youth of the starting rotation might hurt them late in the season, though.
But if they can keep the hits coming, then the pitchers are easily talented enough to win a lot of games.
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes!!! OK, I am over my insane Cubs attraction. As to an answer to the OP…
I sure hope so, but I still feel that it is too early.
Reasons I think they are for real:
-The pitching is good, especially the starting pitching. It is also likely to stay that way meaning the Cubs probably won’t have to generate tons of offense consistently.
-The offense has played well in cold weather at Wrigley. They tend to do better in the heat at that park so good things may be coming.
-Moises Alou seems more back to normal after last year’s debacle.
-The team is looser. There is no way to really quantify this, but Dusty Baker seems to have had a positive effect on team psyche.
-The team is deeper. They have serviceable catchers, some decent backups in the field, and a deeper bullpen with actual prior success.
The reasons against:
-Can Choi, Grudzielanik, Patterson, and Miller keep up there solid starts? Granted, the Cubs have other options, but prolonged slumps may hurt.
-Injuries
-They are the Cubs. I love them, but they don’t inspire a ton of hope.
-Antonio Alfonseca. Whenever the late, great Felix Heredia came into a game, I knew nothing good would come of it. I am very close to this feeling with Alfonseca. It might help for him to continually pull muscles.
Don’t forget a little thing called Dusty Baker. He is absolutely adored in San Francisco, and for good reason. We won 103 his first year here (Of course, the Clark-Williams-Bonds thing helped a bit). Mgr of the year several times.
I’m going to the game on May 4th against the Rockies. If they remain in first place, it will be the first time I’ve ever attended a game when they were in that position. I’m keeping my fingers crossed!!
Are the Cubs for real? I think the question answers itself. Nothing personal, Cubs fans (I spend most of my time in Evanston these days), but I don’t think they’re the best team in that division. At this point, can anybody even compete with the Royals or Yankees anyway?
They can’t hold out if Baker keeps on beating up on the pitching the way he is. Zambrano pitched 123 pitches in 6 innings last night. That’s ridiculous.
I agree that the offense is over-achieving right now, but they’re winning games, like 7-2. They regress to the mean, and they’ll be winning games 4-2. I’ll take it either way.
Dusty is a god. If anyone can bring the Cubs to the Series, it will be Dusty.
That being said, it won’t happen this year because the Giants have enough leftover Dusty magic, combined with their own inherent San-Francisco-teams-are-the-best magic to see them through to the Series this year.
The Cubs are cute. The Giants are to-die-for. Yum.
Still too many day games under the hot sun. Difficult to have strong Septembers when you’re all worn out.
(Actually I really should check this out over at www.retrosheet.org, one of the best baseball research sites on the web.)
Just checked this out and while they have had some Septembers where they have played worse than their record coming in (anyone remember 1969?) there doesn’t seem to be a pattern.
