Scott Walker recall takes an unexpected turn.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

@elucidator

Would it be fair to say that most, if not all, of the benefits currently enjoyed by workers are the result of the labor movement?

Yes.
Do you think corporate forces could make us go back to the conditions that existed in the late 1800s-early 1900s?

[BrainGlutton]

@FE3O4ENAIL

Yes.
Do you think corporate forces could make us go back to the conditions that existed in the late 1800s-early 1900s?

I think they would if they could.

[BrainGlutton]

@Terr

What a dishonest piece of crap.

Compares money collected by Barrett for a month and a half with money collected by Walker for a year and a half. Then goes on to compare money collected by Barrett as a primary candidate to Walker who was collecting it for general election.

Try again.

"That’s not a lot of money, compared to the more than $25 million Walker has taken in (and mostly spent) since becoming governor." That is to say, for this recall. Walker has collected orders-of-magnitude more money for this recall. And the key difference, which you have ignored, is in who is giving it.

[waterj2]

@BrainGlutton

I think they would if they could.

We recently had (putatively) serious presidential candidate propose using child labor to break up the school janitor unions. The right-wing’s willingness to repeal every progressive advance of the twentieth century is limited only by what they think they can get away with at any given time. The further they move the needle, the easier it makes it to talk about the next step.

[BigAppleBucky]

@Terr

Campaign donations: Despite rhetoric, the parties' mountains of money are about even

Altogether, an estimated $86.8 million surged into Wisconsin campaigns and political groups between Jan. 1, 2011 — two days before Walker took office — and April 23 of this year, according to campaign finance statements filed with the state Government Accountability Board.

The period covers the first 16 months of Walker’s tenure, including his controversial measure to effectively eliminate public sector collective bargaining, which turned the state into a national battleground and sparked 15 recall elections.

The bulk of that money — $81.5 million — was split almost exactly in half between Democratic candidates and affiliated organizations, and Republican candidates and their affiliated groups.
…
“The perception out there is that the Republicans are much more flush with cash, and that isn’t supported here,” Cramer Walsh said.

More from Terr’s cite:

Despite Gov. Scott Walker’s huge fundraising advantage heading into next month’s recall election . . .

It found that most of the out-of-state money — and most of the big-dollar contributions — have gone to Republican candidates and allied groups, while donations to Democrats and unions’ political action committees have come overwhelmingly from within Wisconsin.

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin strongly criticized the State Journal’s analysis because it looked only at money coming in and did not examine spending, particularly in the governor’s race. According to figures provided by the party, spending by the Walker campaign and pro-Walker groups since May 1 is running 5-1 in the governor’s favor.

Walker v Barrett is still heavily funded in favor of Walker. Probably because he’s been able to raise money since November and Barrett started a couple of weeks ago.

[BigAppleBucky]

The BLS puts out 3 different sets of data to show the jobs picture. As with any data set, there’s a tradeoff between relevance and reliability. For example, CPS/CES are the most relevant (read: timely) and QCEW is the most reliable (read: comprehensive and accurate).

1. CPS - Current Population Survey (AKA household survey). Surveys a sample of households and extrapolates the findings to the entire population. This data is used to determing the size of the labor force, # employed, # unemployed, and thus calculate the unemployment rate. THIS is the data set that could potentially capture jobs that are in bordering states – i.e. the data at the guy wrote that Forbes article about.

2. CES - Current Employment Statistics (AKA establishment survey). Surveys a sample of businesses and extrapolates the findings to the population. This is the data set commonly quoted for month to month nonfarm job gains/losses. The data is benchmarked annually against QCEW findings. Since this is a small sample that is extrapolated to a large population, it is highly susceptible to revisions.

3. QCEW - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This data is the most comprehensive and serves as the benchmark. This IS the official word as to what happened (as far as the BLS is concerned). Nearly all employers are surveyed and required to report the accurate numbers as that is what unemployment insurance programs in the country use. As this is the most comprehensive and exhaustive survey of the 3, it is released with a significant lag. On June 28th, the BLS will release the data for Q4 - 2011.

All of these data sets come from collaborations between the states and BLS. States do the polling/surveying and submit the findings to the BLS. The numbers released by the DWD yesterday were Wisconsin’s submission to the BLS for the 4Q 2011 QCEW. When the BLS report is released on June 28th, we’ll be able to see any revisions that BLS made.

As for April’s CES numbers - not good. Nobody wants to see -4900, obviously. Do note that March’s job number was revised UP by 7300 jobs and instead of the original loss of 4500 nonfarm jobs, it now shows a GAIN of 2800 jobs. Keep an eye on the revisions going forward and, most importantly, keep an eye on the QCEW when it get’s released for 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012. That will tell us the real story.

The numbers I cited from the BLS above were the CES figures. When the CES figures turned sour, Walker used the CPS but now may be citing the Q4 QCEW figures. Assuming he’s not lying (which he’s been known to do as cited above), then job growth for the state was 23K in 2011, which is positive, though not on schedule to meet his 150,000 promise.

[PhiloVance]

We recently had (putatively) serious presidential candidate propose using child labor to break up the school janitor unions. The right-wing’s willingness to repeal every progressive advance of the twentieth century is limited only by what they think they can get away with at any given time. The further they move the needle, the easier it makes it to talk about the next step.

I’d really like a link for that. :rolleyes:

[Oldeb]

Gingrich really did propose just that.
And here’s the state of Missouri considering repealing Child Labor Laws.

[Terr]

@BrainGlutton

"That’s not a lot of money, compared to the more than $25 million Walker has taken in (and mostly spent) since becoming governor." That is to say, for this recall. Walker has collected orders-of-magnitude more money for this recall. And the key difference, which you have ignored, is in who is giving it.

Since becoming governor. That is a year and a half. And they are comparing it to a month and a half of Barrett’s.

[BrainGlutton]

@PhiloVance

I’d really like a link for that. :rolleyes:

It was Gingrich.

[BrainGlutton]

@Terr

Since becoming governor. That is a year and a half. And they are comparing it to a month and a half of Barrett’s.

So what?

[Terr]

@BrainGlutton

So what?

Dishonest crap.

[BrainGlutton]

@Terr

Dishonest crap.

There’s nothing “dishonest” about that story, it only reports the facts. Nothing implies that Walker has not been fundraising longer – of course he has, he knew the recall was coming long before the Dems even knew who their candidate would be. But the important thing is where each candidate is getting his money – there’s an important difference there, and it’s no “dishonest crap” to point it out.

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

@Fear_Itself

And when he loses?

1.) Answer my question first.

2.) I feel supremely confident in saying he won’t. With two weeks to go and Walker having between a 5 and 9 point lead over Barret with around 4% of voters undecided, it’s going to take a mini-miracle for Barret to pull it out.

[BrainGlutton]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

So if (when) Walker wins the recall election, what will be the excuse?

Funding.

[BrainGlutton]

From The Nation:

. . . If Walker and his allies are removed from office, the results will be seen across the country as a rejection of the false premise that cutting taxes for the rich while attacking unions and slashing services will somehow spur job growth. Walker promised that his policies would create 250,000 jobs. Instead of growth, the governor’s austerity agenda has brought about what the Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies as the worst pattern of job losses in the nation. Walker’s Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, argues that the governor abandoned fiscal common sense and “created an ideological civil war…in the State of Wisconsin.”

Barrett, who handily won a crowded Democratic primary on May 8, is Walker’s opposite. Former Senator Russ Feingold hails Barrett, a former Congressman, as “a lifelong progressive [who]… stood with me in voting against the deregulation that led to the Wall Street crash, opposing the Patriot Act, and reforming our system of campaign finance.” Barrett also broke with Democratic and Republican presidents to oppose NAFTA and champion labor rights. But the Democrat is not just ideologically distinct from Walker. Whereas Walker’s a my-way-or-the-highway pol, Barrett is known for getting people to work together. Though his pragmatic approach to balancing budgets frustrated some local unions in Milwaukee and led to a split in the labor movement over whom to back in the primary, Barrett has now united unions and the party in the campaign to defeat Walker.

The challenge is that Republicans are also united, not just in Wisconsin but nationally, in their support for a governor hailed by Mitt Romney as a hero and role model. Barrett spent around $1 million to win his primary; Walker has already burned through $21 million, and his billionaire backers have spent millions more on “independent” ads. The unprecedented spending on behalf of Walker and his allies has made these recall elections an example of what campaigning has come to look like in the Citizens United era: Democrats can’t hope to match the staggering level of corporate cash raised by the GOP, so they will have to accelerate grassroots organizing and get-out-the-vote drives. Wisconsin will test the prospect that people power might yet beat money power. Despite Walker’s cash advantage, his approval ratings are declining, and Barrett is running even with him in most polls. Why? Some of it has to do with the state’s stagnant economy, as well as corruption scandals that have led to felony charges against Walker aides and donors. But Walker’s big money from outside Wisconsin could probably spin those challenges away. What’s tripping him up is the fury of organized labor—which is providing some of the resources to fight the TV wars and is most focused on a massive voter mobilization campaign—combined with the tens of thousands of grassroots Wisconsinites who are determined to oust the governor.

[elucidator]

…Wisconsin will test the prospect that people power might yet beat money power…

From your lips to the Ears…

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

@BrainGlutton

Funding.

So Democrats bought the two seats they won in last year’s Wisconsin recall election?

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

NVM

[Lobohan]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

So Democrats bought the two seats they won in last year’s Wisconsin recall election?

As I recall the funding was about equal then. And the seats where the lost were in super-conservative districts, where the mechanics of a Dem winning were nearly impossible.

So in a toss-up district with equal funding they did well.