Here is the post where I responded to peeker:
If you look at this in context, you, Meeko and Freudian were the three players who picked up on this. That is evidence of PIS on your part, not mine. It would be a massive co-incidence if the players who just happened to find this suspicious just happened to be ones with extra info.
unvote Oredigger
So I took a walk and I was thinking about this whole Oredigger situation.
If Oredigger was scum, then he would have known that KellyCriterion was scum. He wouldn’t have to hedge his pursuit of Alka Seltzer with a non-sensical case for if KellyCriterion turned up Town. That is, a scummy Oredigger could have (and I would expect to have) simply stated that if KellyCriterion turned up scum, then that would be further proof of Alka Seltzer being scum. He wouldn’t need to refer to KC being town at all. Or at the very least could have taken the position that if KC was Town that he might be wrong about Alka Seltzer, which would have been a much cleaner play.
As it is, the bizarre can’t win situation Oredigger set up for Alka Seltzer looks more like a Townie trying to build a case while being remarkably biased.
I don’t like what Oredigger did, and it was crazy illogical. But now I’m not thinking it was ‘scummy.’
I don’t like the Alka Seltzer lynch. I don’t even understand the case. Please convince me or I’m gonna revote Oredigger because I’d rather kill Oredigger over Alka Seltzer. Actually, my preference would be to kill neither. Again, the Oredigger/Alka Seltzer dichotomy is built on a false premise!
I’m pretty happy with the Alka lynch but our silence is going to end up hurting us in the long run. I think we should spend the remainder of toDay looking at toMorrow’s lynch. Right now I’m thinking that the clean noser theory has some merit and so I think that’s a pretty good place to look.
As far as who I’d call a clean noser? Well, since I’ve topped a couple of people’s list iguess I’d put myself at number one quickly followed by Natlaw, USCDiver and texcat. Red has also been pretty uncontrivertial so I could include him but for some reason it doesn’t feel right. Based on the balance numbers there should be 3-4 scum remaining so just based on the odds there should be at least one scum in any group that size. I don’t have any clue which one but that’s where I’m going to start my reread.
You know what get’s people talking? A claim! You know what really get’s people talking? A claim with anti-town implications! Unfortunately I doubt my claiming will inspire any meaningful discussion.
I was going to wait till the end of the day to make my claim since it’s anti-town,pro-scum, and pro-me for me to claim. But I’ll just do it now, and it will at least give some info to town, and maybe throw off some of the balance/mislynch numbers.
Why is this anti-town, pro-scum? Well I don’t count against scum’s wincondition. So they know not to kill me during the winter. On the other hand, town cannot benefit from my winter demise. Which would be the equivalent of a no-kill winter.
Why is it pro-me? Well, I need to survive to win. And informing the scum of this fact means that they will be less likely to kill me. So I only have to keep one team at bay.
Why do this now? Well, survivor is a boring role. I just have to play town and hope scum don’t kill me, but as the numbers continue to dwindle with no hope of a detective claim in sight, the likelihood of me getting offed gets bigger. I’m probably still safe while masons are alive and out, but we’re getting to the point of where we’ll be talking about lylo numbers soon and I don’t factor nicely into that equation. I like to be ahead of the curve, so my claim doesn’t look conveniently timed.
Ouch. Bad move.
I think storyteller should eat Red Skeezix. Right now the only downside I see is that if Red is telling the truth, he loses, which from a gameplay perspective is not a downside for Town.
The upsides are multi-faceted:
(1) We get to see storyteller actually kill someone, thus verifying his power claim (which is different than confirming alignment)
(2) It gets rid of Red Skeezix, who is probably telling the truth, but could be lying.
(3) We don’t care what Red Skeezix’s alignment actually is (well we probably care a little bit) but he is certainly not Town.
+1
There is no downside and the upside is we at least get to confirm Story’s power if not team. Although if there is one third party there may be others. I also which I had fully included Red in my clean nosers list since I could claim to be psysic.
Maybe it’s a bad move, but the whole spiel about possibly 6 scum starting got me thinking. Either that’s true and the game will go on to at least day 10, or scum have some power roles to offset the balance.
If story is pond:
If scum have a redirector, I’ve coated myself with honey or whatever it is that amoeba’s like best, and story shooting at me would give them an extra kill. And furthering my protection.
If scum has a roleblocker, they would continue to roleblock the only claimed night power in the game, adding further what-if’s and maybe’s to the the discussion of him. While I, remain alive.
If story is scum toughguy: He could waste his extra kill on me to prove his claimed abilities, which would I believe be a net loss. But I don’t know what the actual situation is with the scum team so I can’t evaluate that very well.
If story is scum janitor: Scum would have to weigh the advantages of adding to story’s claim vs wasted night kill.
So sach, it’s a risk and I might have needlessly have just lost the game. It’ll be okay, there will be other games.
3: Drain Bead – claimed Mason
4: Oredigger77 – willing to lynch over Alka Seltzer, but not keen on the whole Ore-Alka dynamic
5: storyteller0910 – not willing to lynch. My early stance on storyteller has been clear, but I guess I should re-state my current view. In my opinion, storyteller has staked his friendship on the fact that he is Town. Therefore, I see no reason to lynch him.
6: Meeko – claimed Mason
9: USCDiver – low participation. Would be willing to lynch.
10: Alka Seltzer – I get a Town read. High participation. Not really sure what the “scummy” charges are. Not willing to lynch
12: Natlaw – Unusual voting history Day 2 and 3. Has been addressed. Needs further study. I’m willing to lynch, but it looks like no one else is.
14: DiggitCamara – I put DiggitCamara on par with USCDiver in the low participation department. The other day I picked USCDiver over DiggitCamara for no real reason other than I had to pick one or the other. Would be willing to lynch
15: amrussell – This is interesting. Could very well be the cleanest noser of all noses. Need to look at this closer. Possibly willing to lynch.
17: Red Skeezix – claimed survivor. Not willing to lynch.
18: sachertorte – I am not willing to lynch myself.
20: TexCat – Flat out asking storyteller to kill him was a bold move. It isn’t necessarily proof of Townness, but I have a hard time seeing scum taking that risk. To some extent storyteller was revealing that he was against the idea, but a change in mind would have to have been possible. Not willing to lynch.
21: Rysto – Biggest pro-Townie move was the vote shift towards KellyCriterion. Storyteller does make a valid point that the timing of the shift is unusual. I’m not willing to classify Rysto as scum based on it, but I’m not willing to give him too high of Townie points for it either. Unwilling to lynch.
That leaves me with:
Natlaw, USCDiver, DiggitCamara. Possibly Oredigger and possibly amrussell.
This makes no sense. If there were possibly 6 scum, you should be HAPPY. If the game started with 6 scum, then we are closer to the endgame, not farther, which is good for a survivor. Heck, as a survivor you could intentionally vote with scum to assure the win for yourself and scum when we got to lynch or lose.
Not that any of this means anything, but I simply don’t understand your reasoning.
Mostly agreed, but I do disagree on point (3). If Red is third-party the vote record looks much different than if Red is scum. However I doubt that he is lying and an important advantage of having story kill him is that it basically confirms story as non-scum: story’s claimed power would be horrifically unbalanced for scum, and not using that power as often as possible to obscure the vote record would be stupid. I’m willing to trade the small chance that Red is a survivor for the guarantee of getting critical info about story’s alignment.
Not sure about your math here. If there were 6 scum to start with (5 left) we’re probably currently looking at 7-5-1 (Town-Scum-Thirdparty) which means the game could be over in as little as 2 Years. Granted if we were able to lynch Scum every Summer we could get up as high as Day 10, but as survivor you should know that you’re possibly very close to a win.
Looks like I’m about done here. I’ll give you my thoughts on Diggit and take a look at my wagon before the deadline. Frankly, I’m a bit fed-up with this game. It hasn’t been played well, or in a very good spirit. The Fluid lynch was a particularly bad one.
I’ll also have a think about Red’s claim. Story killing him now would be a big risk, as scum might have a redirector. If Red is a non-PFK 3rd party, a Story kill costs town a mis-lynch. If Red is PFK, he needs to die for sure, but the best result for town is if scum have to kill him. I can’t rule out Red being scum, but that would be a pretty bold gambit.
I think Story should kill Red if a scum redirector flips, if after a mass-claim it looks unlikely that scum have a redirector, or if we get to even numbers (where a kill of Red would not affect the number of mis-lynches). If Red dies and there is no reveal, I would consider Story to be highly likely to be town. A black-hole kill would severly affect game balance if possessed by scum. A no kill or a kill with reveal would be a significant point against Story’s claim, but not conclusive, as scum might have a roleblocker, doctor or toughguy.
@Red - What is a scum janitor?
Scum janitor can obscure the card flip either partially or completely of who ever the night kill is. Sometimes its required that the janitor perform the kill, sometimes its required that the janitor not perform the kill. Right now story has pretty much claimed Vig/Janitor.
Here’s the mafiascum description of the role. Not very comprehensive.
Thanks.
I am leaning toward eating skeezix. If he is telling the truth or is malicious third-party, the anti-Town effect won’t hurt us that much (we’ll simply reach a tie at the beginning of a future Summer, rather than at the beginning of a future Winter; assuming we have no Doctor [not a great assumption, but not a crazy one, either] and assuming the Scum kill me rather than allow me to have an impact on the Endgame [and I think they will, once I have killed, because at that point I doubt I will be lynchable], this is not a great harm).
My biggest fear is that skeezix is in fact Scum. If he is, then obviously this is a ploy and strongly suggests a Scum redirector. In such a case, I think we’re in trouble but not totally screwed. We’ll probably wake up toMorrow to a pair of dead Masons. However, one of them will have no identity revealed, which will in turn lend support to my claim - the problem then is that we’ll still have to deal with skeezix, but we’ll jump off that bridge when we arrive at it. Actually, if the Scum have a redirector they’ll probably use the redirector to force me to kill one of the Masons, then kill me (once again, if I’m around at the Endgame, I can stave off a Scum win with a lucky shot).
Always possible I’ll be role-blocked, but then it’s just no harm done, ultimately.
So yeah, I’m leaning that way. Further discussion is requested, but I really think we should be concentrating a bit more on toDay’s lynch - the Alka Seltzer lynch seems to be happening on mostly inertia right now, and that’s not a good recipe. I’m going to try to do a partial re-read and see if I can find anything new.
I’m not too worried about the possibility of a scum redirector, that is to say, I don’t think one exists. Based on what we know so far about death reveals, I can’t see how the game could be balanced with scum power roles. When Ed died, his role reveal was ambiguous. While many players pieced together that he was a mason, this was not a clear and true fact until later. If Ed were a unique power role, we wouldn’t know anything about his role.
Similarly, if scum a scum power role were to die, I’m thinking we’d get some organism name, and not what the role actually is. That is, we would not know that we killed a scum redirector. This is game breaking. So either, we would get more info when we kill a scum power role, or there aren’t many (or any) scum power roles to add to the confusion.
Anyway. On top of the distinct possibility that we don’t have a detective, I’ll be shocked if we had a redirector. Redirectors are game breakingly powerful to begin with. Quite frankly if there is a redirector, I’d rather get the game over with faster anyway.
Third parties don’t count against the scum in their win condition:
So the very fact of a third party’s existence costs us the extra half-mislynch whether we kill him or not.
The claim was ‘I get a name from a group of people’ - why is the assumption that the name given is related to alignment (cop) OK, but related to a Night action (watcher) ridiculous?
Then you follow your assumption with another: a half claim that might be a detective must be counter-claimed by any real detective. Because waiting for the full claim would be ridiculous?! Again yes, at that point in the game a detective could have claimed (if he had usable results), but that is a separate issue.
Then there is the third assumption you make: a closed game must have a detective. While I see the reasoning that a closed game benefits scum claiming possibilities, I’ve never seen it stated as a hard rule that role X must be in the game. The same reasoning would go for a doctor, but frankly it’s second guessing Chronos at this point. But based on the four Masons I think it’s unlikely we have a cop, doc and vig all together. I don’t think no counter for Kelly claim absolutely means there isn’t a cop at all, but it is not that likely with what we know now.
Related to that, since it looks like there aren’t many town Night powers it is unlikely there is a scum redirector, so Story eating Red Skeezix doesn’t seem to risky to me. Perhaps it worth waiting a Night but that is assuming 8-4-1 so Tomorrow isn’t lynch or lose worst case).