Thinking about the game state, we aren’t in a great position right now but I think the game is still winnable. An outed probable 3rd party is likely to be the best opportunity we’ll get to test Story’s claim. If Story is town, a kill would give us 3 confirmed town (we’ll probably lose one over winter).
If Red is what he says he is, we can’t trust him going forward. His motivation is to end the game as quickly as possible. The closer we get to lylo the less likely he is to vote for scum. At lylo itself, he would be playing against his win condition by voting town.
Oredigger leads off, I’ve already made it clear what I think of his vote.
There is some merit to the argument, and Red isn’t making it out to be stronger evidence than it is. Ignores the fact there are many reasons that scum might choose a night kill. This would be a great argument to make if Red was scum and knew the other non-masons were town, but I don’t think that is particularly likely. I don’t see how his claim could be made to work for scum, and the timing of it would be really strange, it undermines the case he is making against me.
Rejects Red’s argument, but votes for me based on my vote of mahaloth ahead of Kelly.
Drain confirmed town.
This annoys me, Meeko can’t even be bothered to check his facts.
@Meeko - I never voted Kelly, I did not unvote him.
Don’t like this vote at all, for the reasons given in #1688.
Overall though, I don’t think my wagon is the best place to look for scum. My vote for mahaloth is a major point against me, and that will tend to lead to confirmation bias on the part of townies.
On amrussels vote, I’ll add the fact that my “list” consisted of 2 items, plus some quotes where I showed what i was previously thinking about mahaloth and kelly.
If there’s a lot of last-minute vote changes that I have to tabulate, the autumn post might be delayed by as much as two hours. Otherwise, though, it’ll be close to the scheduled time.
Crap. So early-morning meetings have basically eaten half my day. I have one more, starting in eight minutes, and after that I’ll be free but will have only three hours in which to try to find a vote. I don’t think I love the Alka Seltzer wagon on its merits, in spite of the vote for Mahaloth that put him above Kelly (I mean, I did the same thing, and I’m Town; I can hardly look at that as evidence of much of anything, in the end).
OK, trying to catch up, kind of running out of time, but a few observations, based on the vote chart.
First, it appears that on Day Three, all of the voters for Kelly Criterion on Day Three, with the exception of two, were (now-confirmed) Town. Of the two remaining, one was Redskeezix, who has now claimed, and seems fairly likely to be, third-party. That means that if Rysto is not Scum, then no Scum voted for Kelly Criterion at all on the day he was lynched. This sort of restores my existing suspicion of Rysto, who had been receding once we learned Kelly’s alignment.
Second, the alignment of all but three of the players responsible for peeker’s Day One lynch has been revealed as Town. The remaining three are Alka Selzter,USC Diver, and Texcat. Am I absolutely certain that there was Scum on the peeker wagon? No. Would I bet on it? Probably.
Just things worth keeping in mind.
For this Summer, I can’t get solidly behind any of the wagons right now. I would think Alka Seltzer is Town were he any other player, but he remains opaque to me. Nonetheless, my instincts say we’re headed in the wrong direction with him - his response to pressure, and he continued pursuit of me long after it became obvious that it wouldn’t bear fruit, have both been consistent with what I’d expect to be Townie behavior.
Since we are so close to the end of the summer, here’s some things that I want to say, just in case story does eat me this winter.
Any remaining masons should push for vote conformity compliance within 24 hours of end of summer. I havent done the analysis of it, but as the game approaches lylo, the impact of vote manipulation increases dramatically. Early conformity is the nuclear option here, don’t be too timid to use it.
Any remaining masons should consider not voting until later in the summer (within 72-48 hrs of winter). Make suspicions, ask questions, pick apart arguments, etc. I always feel that when the game gets to a certain point, any living masons should take on an arbitration role. It will prevent everyone from lining up behind them, if they don’t take an early strong stand.
I sort of tried that in colourless, after my claim confirmed me. It didn’t go well, town and scum waited around to see which way I’d jump (I should have made my intentions clearer).
Is the lack of a space between ‘this’ and ‘close’ intentional Drain?
Oh, and something I meant to say earlier in the game, when it was brought up. I don’t think peeker means to be offensive or abrasive. I just think he has a ‘fuck’ key on his keyboard, and he’s a sloppy typist.