SDMB Annual Fantasy Baseball League Discussion

The Game Room
1

I figured I’d start a new thread for in-season discussion of the league and draft summaries. Here’s the original recruitment thread.

To kick things off I’ll go over my draft for the season, I would love to see everyone take a minute and recap their own drafts in as much or little detail as they’d like. Hopefully that will help to kickstart some debate and trash talk over the preseason predictions. I know there are a handful of players who don’t have SDMB accounts but if any of you would like to contribute a summary of your own team feel free to email me and I’ll post your lineup as a proxy for you.

Without much further ado, here’s Out On Waveland’s team for 2008.

I’m really pleased with the line-up I put together this season. I’m the type of baseball fan who for whatever reason notices and remembers hitters performances and statistics and tends to overlook pitching. This typically manifests itself in the way I draft fantasy teams because I’ll almost always draft one of the best hitting teams and be near the bottom in pitching. Over the many years of this league I almost always finish precisely in the middle of the pack. My rationale used to be that pitchers output from season-to-season is more inconsistent than hitters and injury is a much greater risk and therefore it’s wiser to use high picks on batters and fill in pitching late with quantity over quality. This might be a solid strategy if you have a lot of personal knowledge of up and coming pitchers and deep sleepers, but since I don’t my pitching staff tends to be something of a crapshoot backfilled with has-beens and injury plagued guys everyone else avoids.

This year I completely flipped that strategy and chose pitchers in the early rounds and filled out batting in the late rounds with young up and comers. I was able to draft the few reliable top-end Aces and a closer that my pitching deficient brain knew. Then I was able to select batters at deep positions towards the end of the draft. As of right now I really like the way it turned out.

Batting
C - Geovany Soto (ChC - C)
1B - Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B)
2B - Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)
3B - Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)
SS - Stephen Drew (Ari - SS)
IF - Troy Glaus (StL - 3B)
LF - Matt Holliday (Col - LF)
CF - Corey Patterson (Cin - CF)
RF - J.D. Drew (Bos - RF)
OF - Félix Pié (ChC - CF)
Util - Ryan Theriot (ChC - 2B,SS)
BN - Lyle Overbay (Tor - 1B)
BN - Carlos Quentin (CWS - RF)
BN - Jayson Werth (Phi - LF,RF)

I took Holliday in the first round regardless of the comments made above, I had originally targeted Johan Santana with my 8th overall pick, I think he’ll benefit from the move to the weak NL East and surpass last season’s marks amazingly, but he came off the board at #5. There wasn’t another pitcher worth that pick and Holliday is a great get especially at LF which is a surprisingly shallow power position and he fills every column of the stat sheet.

Aside from Holliday there is a ton of uncertainty and youth up and down the lineup, I probably have the youngest team by a wide margin. I feel like I mitigated the risk by drafting a lot of positional flexibility so hopefully I’ll be able swap in-and-out hot and cold players at every position. I really like that I got Ryan Theriot in the 15th round. He can play both middle infield positions and if Brian Roberts come to the Cubs via trade The Riot might get eligibility at CF too. As of now he’ll be leading off a very potent Cubs lineup and has been red hot in Spring Training so he ought to score a lot of runs. If Roberts comes over his value diminishes by moving out of the leadoff slot but so far that hasn’t happened.

Coincidentally I ended up with both Drew brothers. I begrudgingly took JD Drew in the 11th round when I was desperate for a RF (my weakest position by far) and he’s probably a fair value there. He’s still in a powerful lineup and might one of these days not be a pussy. His brother is the better value but he really needs to learn some plate discipline, many experts think he could be this year’s Tulowitzki if he matures at the plate. Alex Gordon is in the exact same position having underperformed amid high expectations last year due to poor plate discipline and impatience but both guys finished very strong after terrible starts. Hopefully that will carry over.

Corey Patterson is an interesting one, he’s reunited with his male-lover Dusty Baker and Patterson has been raking since he joined the Reds and has won the starting job. He’s always a risk to your OBP but hopefully maturity and the tiny ballpark balance his numbers some.

The difference between mediocre and good for this group lies with the Cubs rookies on the roster. Soto is one of the hottest prospects this season and it’s do-or-die for Pie this season. Theriot is the farthest along but all three will need to live up to the hype for both my team and the Cubs to get out of the middle of the pack.

Pitching
SP - Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)
SP - Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)
RP - Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)
RP - Alan Embree (Oak - RP)
P - Matt Garza (TB - SP)
P - Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)
P - Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)
BN - Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP)
BN - Jason Frasor (Tor - RP)
BN - Adam Loewen (Bal - SP)

This will have to be the engine of my team. Webb and Oswalt give me probably the second best tandem of starters and Papelbon is the best closer going. That top 3 should keep me near the top in Wins and Saves by themselves and will provide excellent rate numbers.

Embree should be a top notch Holds guy and when Street goes down with his annual injury Embree will be at the front of the line to replace him. Jason Frasor is in a similar situation in Toronto and puts up superb K/9 numbers and indicates the potential to be a late inning ace. He’s had mixed results in the past bu with BJ Ryan already hurting Frasor could move up into the Set-up or closer role sooner than later.

The rest of my starters are loaded with potential and caveats. The best part is that they don’t have any serious injury histories. Pettitte seems to have coped with the Clemens fiasco without too much trouble and will provide excelling counting stats though I’ll probably have to sit him against the best of the AL East.

Ervin Santana wasn’t the Santana I wanted but when he’s pitching at home his numbers are Johan-like, Wandy is also a monster in the Juice box and as long as I keep them on the bench in road games they will put up stellar numbers for me. Each guy could mature and become a well rounded everyday starter, but if their home numbers match last season’s I’ll be thrilled and dominant in the rate categories.

Garza and Loewen are the young guns that people expect big things from. Loewen really needs to get his command under control and the O’s don’t have a great track record developing pitching but hopefully the addition of Andy McPhail can improve that. The Cubs have long had some of the best young arms in the game. Recently Leo Mazzone has brought his talents to the club as well and it’s paid dividends so maybe he can turn Loewen into the ace he could be. Garza is more accomplished and his new home in Tampa should help him some, though the lineups in the AL East will require a bit of guarded optimism.

Overall I’m feeling pretty good about the upside here. If too many of these what-ifs don’t pan out I’m going to be screwed and I’ll certainly need to be somewhat proactive about managing my lineup early in the season while I see how things are going to shake out but this is probably the most balanced team I’ve ever fielded. It’s also the youngest and has the least injury risk so I might start slow, but by mid summer I might be a force to be reckoned with.

2

Munch, a Doper from back in the day, has taken the time to recap his draft; here is No Pepper Games’s team:

Batting
C: Carlos Ruiz (Phi - C)
1B: Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B,RF)
2B: José López (Sea - 2B)
3B: Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B)
SS: Jason Bartlett (TB - SS)
IF: Joey Votto (Cin - 1B,LF)
LF: Pat Burrell (Phi - LF)
CF: Nick Swisher (CWS - 1B,CF,RF)
RF: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA - RF)
OF: Michael Bourn (Hou - LF,CF)
Util: Barry Bonds (SF - LF)
Moisés Alou (NYM - LF)
Nyjer Morgan (Pit - CF)

Pitching
SP: Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP)
RP: Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP)
RP: Hideki Okajima (Bos - RP)
P: George Sherrill (Bal - RP)
P: Taylor Tankersley (Fla - RP)
P: Dan Wheeler (TB - RP)
John Maine (NYM - SP)
Hiroki Kuroda (LAD - SP)
Dave Bush (Mil - SP)
Nate Robertson (Det - SP)

Well, once again I got treated to the short end of the stick when it comes to draft location - 16th of 19. My ultimate hope was to draft in the top 5, and land either Hanley Ramirez or Matt Holliday, and pick up a second tier 5 tool player in the 2nd round - but that didn’t happen. (Holliday at #8 is an absolute steal, he’s #2 on many boards.) Anyway, I had to once again adjust my strategy for being on the backend. Usually it’s a good place to be a run-starter, hoping to create value for the next round, but you really need to be right on the end.

My strategy was to focus on value at all times, and to especially fill my OF as quickly as possible. I personally find it amusing how year-in and year-out, the fantasy magazines and such will always say, “there’s plenty of depth in the OF.” I don’t - I see a huge dropoff significantly sooner than at nearly any other position, once you adjust for each team needing 3 starters. There are great sleepers out there in the later rounds, but I take few chances with this group, knowing people are more than willing to reach several rounds early for their guy.

This value approach allowed me to assemble what I think will compete to be the best trio of starting pitchers in the league in Cole Hamels, Dice-K and John Maine, all while maintaining excellent balance on offense.

On offense, I focuses on sluggers with on-base ability. Having slugging as a category really makes finding power a priority, since HRs basically count twice now. Guys like Dunn, Swisher, Hawpe, Burrell and Cust were ideal - but Dunn was taken on the opposite end of Rd 2, and Hawpe and Cust were nabbed right before I wanted them. However, my outfielders of Vlad, Swisher and Burrell will help me absolutely compete at the top in HR, OBP and SLG, while helping in Rs and RBIs. I reached for Michael Bourn earlier than normal in the 8th (137 overall), but I have very high hopes for him at the front of the Astros lineup, racking up Rs and, more importantly, SBs. A particular baseball website has him down for 56 SBs this season, which I’ll happily take. (Unfortunately, PECOTA doesn’t quite see eye-to-eye with this. We’ll see.)

My infield, however, could use a bit of work. 1B is set with Berkman (another great HR/OBP/SLG guy), but I was really waiting on 2B. After several of my late-rounders were taken by people who already had a 2B (don’t wait too long!), I ended up with Jose Lopez. He’s had a lot of buzz around him the last few years, and he posted decent numbers last year, but he’s not exactly who I wanted. My only hope is that he doesn’t hurt my averages too much. (If anyone doesn’t hope to compete much in OBP wants to downgrade at 2B for a boost somewhere else, lemme know.) I’m actually quite happy at SS with Jason Bartlett. I expect him to hurt my SLG, but his SBs will keep me in the middle of the pack (I hope). I’m extremely happy with Carlos Ruiz behind the plate. For some reason, Yahoo has saddled him with a horribly low ranking, and he lasted forever. I’ll gladly take a full time catcher at #327 who’s going to hit 10+ HRs, keep decent averages and steal a handful of bases (5 maybe?).

I also decided I couldn’t let Barry Bonds go undrafted after the 17th round (#320). Once he finds a team (TB? Seattle?), his at-bats are extremely valuable in this league. Since 1990, his worst OBP has been .404 (.406 if you don’t count seasons he played less than 15 games). Also since 1990 his worst SLG has been .514. Yeah, I’ll spend a 17th round pick on him in a 19 team league with OBP and SLG. Especially since if he does play, we know what days he takes off, allowing me to plug another player into his slot. Unfortunately for me, that player is Moises Alou, who will immediately start the season on the DL. Oh well, I’m bound to find at least one fill-in in the player pool this season. For a bit of flexibility, I was able to grab Joey Votto in what I feel was the best value pick on my team. Going into Rd 9 I really wanted 3 guys - Maine, Marmol and Votto. I was incredibly surprised to see him last until Round 11, 31 picks later, especially with OF youngsters Justin Upton, Jay Bruce (likely headed to the minors), Lastings Milledge, Chris Duncan, Josh Fields and Luke Scott all drafted before him.

Like I mentioned, I love my starting pitching. Maine was a steal in Round 9 (and I’ll again reiterate how much people should not be commenting on who is left on the board during the draft - I was sweating bullets when I had him at the top of my queue, and people were commenting to those in front of me “wow, Maine would be a really good value right now!”). Word out of LA is that Hiroki Kuroda is pitching very well - his import numbers aren’t all that impressive, but for a 4th SP, I’ll wait him out. To back him up I have consistently average Nate Robertson, and the wonderfully unpredictable Dave Bush.

To improve any deficiencies in the latter part of my rotation, I focused on dominant relievers, whether they were closers or not. Marmol fits that bill to a T - huge K numbers, and will rack up Holds until he moves to the 9th. Okajima will do the same, and George Sherrill will put up fantastic ratios while adding to my very average save totals. I probably wouldn’t have drafted him if it wasn’t for getting great value out of his draft location - Rd 14 (#251).

Overall, I’m extremely happy. There are a few holes, and I am depending on a few players to get an increase in at-bats this season to produce. But I will compete again this year - someone has to knock Petelin off the top!

3

OK, I’ll give my roster a whirl… I’m the Dead Ian Kennedys this year, trying to bounce back from an awful performace last year.

My draft spot was 13th, which wasn’t exactly what I wanted… I wanted top 9, or somewhere back at the very end. I felt comfortable with the top 9 players on my board. 13th on my pre-ranks was Grady Sizemore, who I wouldn’t have been unhappy with, but I know that’s a little early for him (of course then Julie goes and drafts him seventh). There are a couple of highly ranked players I totally didn’t want, in Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Braun (I think they are both due for a big fallback this year). As it got close to my spot, it became clear that I was going to wind up with David Ortiz or Prince Fielder, and I’m quite happy that brianjedi took Papi right before me, leaving me with Fielder.

I had one overwhelming priority this year - draft young. I’ve been burned by too many veterans not coming back to what I thought they would in the past, especially last year. So this year I was going with youth all the way. I think I managed to keep with that pretty much, we’ll see how it turns out.

As to my full roster -

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C, 1B)
1B - Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B)
2B - B.J. Upton (TB - 2B, CF)
3B - Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B, 3B)
SS - Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)
IF - Billy Butler (KC - 1B, LF)
LF - Travis Buck (Oak - LF, RF)
CF - Corey Hart (Mil - CF, RF)
RF - Nick Markakis (Bal - RF)
OF - Michael Cuddyer (Min - RF)
Util - Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B)
BN - Chad Tracy (Ari - 1B, 3B)
BN - Chris Iannetta (Col - C)
BN (now DL) - Wily Mo Pena (Was - LF, CF, RF)

SP - Felix Hernandez (Sea - SP)
SP - Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)
RP - Rafael Perez (Cle - RP)
P - Matt Cain (SF - SP)
P - Joe Blanton (Oak - SP)
P - Jake Westbrook (Cle - SP)
BN - Andy Sonnastine (TB - SP)
BN - Matt Lindstrom (Fla - RP)
BN - Jonathan Sanchez (SF - SP)

And I picked up Kevin Correia after the draft to fill Wily Mo’s spot.

Yes, boys and girls, that’s right - four SF starting pitchers.

All in all, I’m not so sure what to make of this team. Two of my picks look scary bad at this point - both Matt Lindstrom and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are rumored to start the year in the minors, and I reached for Salty in the 9th round, of all things. It was starting to get thin at C, but that could wind up being an awful pick. Better to have grabbed one of the closers who was left, such as Jason Isringhausen.

But I like my youth. By my quick count, I’ve only got four players on the wrong side of 30 (Westbrook, Cuddyer, Huff and O.C.). Between Fielder, B.J., Hart, Buck, Markakis, Jackson and Butler, I’ve got a lot of young offensive players with room to grow (hopefully, in Fielder’s case, not literally!). I think I’ll be fine in all the offensive categories, except possibly steals.
And Chad Tracy could be a steal in the 20th round - if he comes back to his 2006 level he’ll be good value, and if he comes back to 2005 levels… well a guy can dream.

Pitching is where I hurt a little bit, particularly in the bullpen, which matters more in this league with both SV and Holds as stats. Broxton and Rafael Perez I both like a lot - especially since I think Borowski will be hurt or pitching mop-up by mid-May, making Perez the #2 guy in the Indians pen. I’ve always like Lindstrom, but he’s apparently struggling this spring.

My starts are solid - although I got bounced out of the draft for the actual pick, I’m thrilled with Cain in the 8th, and Hernandez and Lincecum are both studs. I’m a little overdeep in the back end of my rotation - Blanton, Westbrook and Sonnastine are all average or better in my opinion, and I’m high on both Sanchez and Correia. Hopefully I’ll be able to move a starter for some relief help before too long.

All in all, I’m happy with how the draft went, and happy that I was able to keep to my plan of going (mostly) young. I’m still a little annoyed I didn’t get Ian Kennedy, though! And as usual, the actual draft was a blast. I’m still amused by Alex’s drafting of Giambi…

4

Vote Papi 2008!

(corny campaign slogan: He’s a Grand Slam!)

Pick by pick:

  1.  (6)  	Chase Utley  	2B
  2. (33) Víctor Martínez C,1B
  3. (44) Aramis Ramírez 3B
  4. (71) Chipper Jones 3B
  5. (82) Aaron Harang SP
  6. (109) Jim Thome Util
  7. (120) Jermaine Dye RF
  8. (147) Carlos Delgado 1B
  9. (158) Willy Taveras CF
  10. (185) 	Julio Lugo 	SS

  11. (196) 	Todd Jones 	RP

  12. (223) 	Eric Gagne 	RP

  13. (234) 	Pat Neshek 	RP

  14. (261) 	Ryan Church 	LF,CF

  15. (272) 	Greg Maddux 	SP

  16. (299) 	Kerry Wood 	RP

  17. (310) 	Dave Roberts 	LF,CF

  18. (337) 	Justin Speier 	RP

  19. (348) 	Mark Prior 	SP

  20. (375) 	Rajai Davis 	CF

  21. (386) 	Mike Mussina 	SP

  22. (413) 	Frank Catalanotto 	1B,LF

  23. (424) 	Jerry Owens 	LF,CF

  24. (451) 	Paul Byrd 	SP

Leading to:

C - V. Martinez
1B - C. Delgado
2B - C. Utley
SS - J. Lugo
3B - A. Ramirez
IF - C. Jones
LF - R. Church
CF - W. Taveras
RF - J. Dye
OF - Rotating Menagerie of 30 SB Guys
UT - J. Thome

SP1 - A. Harang
SP2 - G. Maddux
SP3 - M. Mussina
SP4 - P. Byrd
SPDL - M. Prior

RP - T. Jones
RP - E. Gagne
RP - K. Wood
RP - P. Neshek
RP - J. Speier

I feel very strongly that the key to the draft in this league is to go where other people aren’t and find the most value. This led to the following chain of thoughts:

  1. Every year, I think people overvalue mid-tier pitching in this league by a round or more in 90% of cases
  2. Every year, I get at least one and usually 2-3 average or better SPs off the waiver wire within the first two months of the year
  3. Every year, the hardest thing to pick up after the draft is an OPS helping hitter, since the good ones help out with 5 of the 6 offensive categories in this league and basically cure all of your ills
  4. Every year, Dave Roberts and whatever else I can put together is enough to get me in the top half of the SB category

Additionally, this year in particular the bargains were not there with the middle relievers in rounds 12-14 as they have been in the past; people drafted the top MRs much more aggressively this year (in some cases appropriately, in some cases - JOBA! - not so much).

…which is how you end up with the team that I ended up with.

The choice for me in the first round was between Utley, Holliday, and Cabrera (I have them ranked about equally in the 4th through 6th slots on my draft board) and went for position-filling and a repeat of last year’s man-love with Utley; I obviously think the other two were great values for those who got them. I wanted Brandon Webb in the second round but Omni beat me to him, and I thought it was a bit too early for Manny (though apparently only one pick too early…!), so I went with position-filling again so I don’t have to trade for Jason Varitek mid-season for, like, the third time in this league. After those two picks, I just went to work where the value was. I took the second 3B in the 4th because even if Chipper only plays 130 games, he’s a 3rd-round value in this league with his OPS to go with his pounding stats. It was between Harang and King Felix in the 5th, and things being equal I’ll usually take the NL guy. Thome in the 6th, again, if he plays 130 games he’s probably a 3rd round value as long as it doesn’t bug me to lose the utility of the UT slot. I thought Dye and Delgado were the last guys available with serious potential at their respective positions, though each could easily disappoint.

Now we’re in the 9th round, and I’m about ready to pick a second pitcher, and I need some speed as well. However, this is the part of the draft where I think you guys are kind of crazy at times with some of the mid-tier starters and closers flying around. Taveras and the massive amount of steals he’ll get if he stays healthy all year - with Coors to keep his OPS somewhat reasonable - was a better value than anyone on the board other than John Maine… and at the last second I went with that speed instead of the SP2. I completed the need for speed with Lugo in the 10th, and figured I’d look at pitching from there on out… but I kept not seeing the value there, especially in the starters. Frankly I think getting Jones, Gagne, and Wood puts me in a very strong saves position even if one of the three dumps the job at some point - sure, they may not be the best pitchers in the world, but they are all declared closers for teams that are going to get tons of opportunities.

Every time there was a SP I thought about taking, I would either have another guy I needed at that spot (Lugo over McGowan, who went a pick later - I love McGowan’s value there but felt there was a huge SS dropoff after Lugo), or the guy went a half round or less before (Blanton and Pettite in 14, Meche and Bush in 16, etc.). I was pretty happy to end up with Maddux - he’s ultra-safe and exactly the right kind of guy in this league. I grabbed Prior because I missed out on Randy Johnson and Harden, and I can’t live without one of those guys. Mussina is another sleeperish old guy that I tend to have luck with in this league.

For the roster filling part of the draft, I think I got two HUGE speed bargains in Davis and Owens - I’m not used to having speed as trade bait, I think it might be sort of fun for once. I may end up starting one of them over Roberts, I’m not sure… I do know that any of those three guys is the perfect “last outfielder” for a power-based roster that needs a concentrated speed boost. So at some point I’ll probably need to figure out who has some extra starters and no speed.

The only pick that I’d probably redo would be that I’d have taken Turnbow over Roberts (and probably still been able to get Roberts in the next round), solely because it would have given me the lock on the Brewers closer job, and I think I misjudged the need for speed at that point.

Random picks that I liked that weren’t mine include Victorino in round 6, Maine in 9, McGowan in 10, Wang and Drew in 11, Randy in 15, Lyon in 18, Villanueva in 19, Jacobs in 20, and Delcarmen in 24. I also wish I had gotten Cust, somehow, but I think he went at a very appropriate spot for this league and I had too many other things to grab at that point to reach for a LF.

On a brief perusal of the other teams, they look as balanced as they’ve ever looked coming out of the draft. Injuries will be huge, of course, especially on offense; a bunch of teams are already one or two guys-with-pulses short of what they’d probably like, and injuries won’t help that.

The biggest things for me will be (1) any kind of bounce-back in Lugo’s OPS, and (2) picking up one starter and one K-heavy holds guy via the wire at some point. If both of those happen - and I personally think they’re both at least somewhat likely - I should be in pretty good shape to have one speed guy and one OPS guy available for trade up into whatever will end up rounding out my roster. I project at or above the levels that have historically been necessary to be competitive to win this league in every category but Wins and Ks, and those are two of the easier ones to fix (simply getting the warm bodies to get nearer the IP max than half of the teams fixes Ks almost on its own).

Draft was a blast, as always. Enjoy the opportunity to… well, we can’t really beat anyone down in this league, but at least I’ll be able to watch my stats accumulate slightly less slower than yours!

5

Former Doper Winnowill emailed me a recap of Winnowill’s Whiners.

Batting
C – Brian McCann
1B – Todd Helton
2B – Brian Roberts
3B – Hank Blalock
SS – Felipe Lopez
IF – Ty Wigginton
LF – Jason Bay
CF – Grady Sizemore
RF – Jeremy Hermida
OF – Franklin Gutierrez
Util – Luke Scott
Bench – Marlon Byrd – LF/CF/RF
Bench – Chris Snyder – C
Bench – Jack Wilson – SS/IF
Bench – Mike Jacobs – 1B/IF

Pitching
SP1 – Ian Snell
SP2 – Kevin Slowey
SP3 – Scott Baker
SP4 – Shawn Hill (on the DL for now)
SP5 – Homer Bailey (assuming he stays in the majors)
RP – Chad Qualls
RP – Cla Meredith
RP – Manny Delcarmen
CL – Joakim Soria
I started this year, rather unusually for me, with an actual strategy. I knew which primary stats I wanted to get from which positions, and my goals (based on projected stats) for each. I selected the ten players that best fit my strategy as my initial targets. There were no pitchers in the ten – I decided to go after offense first. There are always plenty of perfectly acceptable pitchers left in the later rounds. I went with kind of a LIMA plan, except that I don’t have to worry about limited $.

I identified Center Field as the most demanding position under this strategy - only three players met my goals, and of those, Grady Sizemore is by far the best and most reliable. I knew that he had to be my #1 pick. Even if I’d gotten first pick in the draft, I’d have grabbed Sizemore. By the time I picked, targets #4 (Hanley Ramirez) and #9 (A-Rod – I knew he’d be first picked, making my #9 rating amusing. Why bother?) were already gone.

My second pick, Brian Roberts (the same guy I picked second last year), was a last-second strategy change. By this time, the only remaining players of my initial ten are picks number 2 and 3. Roberts was actually #3 - Victor Martinez was #2. But all four of the catchers who fit my strategy are still available, and there’s a significant drop-off in 2B quality - even among the ones who fit - after Roberts. I hoped Martinez would come back to me, but nope. Kiros picked Martinez right after I passed, and Russell Martin didn’t last much longer. While I could have waited a couple of rounds and taken Napoli, I decided not to take the chance, so I grabbed McCann, who has more upside.

My next picks gave me two more strong OFs – Jason Bay and Hermida (who was supposed to be Hawpe). It’s a little early for Hermida, but he’s really the only guy left (other than Dye, and I don’t trust him) who I consider a 100% fit at ANY offensive position.

Then I had to start compromising. Every year, I wait too long on the 1Bs because it just seems as though there are so many (and I’ve long identified OF, 2B and C as priorities). Most of the ones I wanted are already gone - I’m settling for Helton, who isn’t the power guy he used to be, but I’ll take his .430 OBP in exchange for the dozen or so more homers I’d have gotten for a higher pick, especially since my starting OF is stronger than usual. Helton still hits enough doubles to have a pretty healthy SLG.

I pulled the pitching trigger a lot earlier than I intended to, but the good closers were disappearing and there was really nobody I worried about losing offensively right then. I’ve always liked Soria, and I followed him up with a starter in the form of Ian Snell. But in round 9, I realize that Felipe Lopez is the best SS left. At least he can back up at 2B, too, and he’s good for two dozen steals, which was the only reason he was even remotely a fit.

For holds, I follow Lopez with Chad Qualls, who may also get some saves if Lyon stays true to form and implodes as closer. Later on, I add Cla Meredith and Delcarmen to bolster the holds area and possibly grab a few wins and saves. Kevin Slowey was kind of a sleeper pick, and probably too early. He’s young. I sure hope he pans out. He’s got the skills – we’ll see if he’s got the guts. Drafting Scott Baker feels like drafting Brad Radke eight years ago. But I was going to stick with my strategy, and he fit it.

I’m expecting a monster year for Luke Scott, even though I’d never heard of him before I started my draft prep. Then, I realize that - Ohmigosh! I don’t have a 3B, yet! Here’s hoping Blalock really IS healthy, and manages to stay that way all year. If so, he should be a really good value here. If not, phooey. I’m very well satisfied getting Chris Snyder as backup catcher. Especially since he may wind up hitting fourth. Not that hitting cleanup for the DBacks takes any kind of major talent.

I panicked on round 16. I didn’t really want Wigginton (he was supposed to be Conor Jackson), but he backs up everywhere in the IF except SS and he’s got some pop. This was my most agonizing pick, and I’m still not really happy with it. But I AM happy with Shawn Hill next. He has a great skill set, and he’s really the only remaining starting pitcher I identified as "Tier 1.”

As a backup OF, Gutierrez fit the bill pretty well. He has some OBP issues, but the rest of my roster can absorb them. I hope. Of course, at this stage of the draft, who DOESN’T have some kind of glaring deficiency? I could have done a lot worse – at least Gutierrez plays pretty much every day.

The last few rounds were just about grabbing backups. I hate my round 21 pick (Homer Bailey). Mike Jacobs and Jack Wilson gets a resounding “Meh” from me. And I had a serious issue in round 23 - It was between Byrd (whom I hate) and Uribe (whom I also hate, but not as much). But I really NEEDED a guy who can backup at CF. So, Byrd.

In all, I like my team. I don’t have any really noteworthy power guys, but I have a bunch of guys who can be expected to hit between 20 and 30 homers. I’ve got three guys who will steal at least two dozen bases each – a lot more from Roberts. I may be a little light in Runs and RBI (we’ll see), but I’ve got some pretty healthy OBP and SLG. I have enough position flexibility that every position has at least two players who can fill it.

My pitching, on the other hand, is a little weak. My team ERA looks pretty darn good, though my WHIP’s a little high. I’ve got three good hold guys. I could probably use more saves, but it’s entirely possible that one or more of my setup guys will get a few, and I punted wins again this year.

6

For the second time in no more than three or four years, I had the last pick in the first round of the draft. In this league, that means your best player is somewhere between 15th and 25th best in the league. Painful, even if you do get to pick someone else right away.

So, here’s what I ended up with:


Round  	Pick  	Player  	Position
1. 	(19) 	Jake Peavy 	SP
2. 	(20) 	Mark Teixeira 	1B
3. 	(57) 	Rickie Weeks 	2B
4. 	(58) 	J.J. Putz 	RP
5. 	(95) 	Chris Young 	SP
6. 	(96) 	Édgar Rentería 	SS
7. 	(133) 	Jack Cust 	LF,RF
8. 	(134) 	Mike Lowell 	3B
9. 	(171) 	Rafael Betancourt 	RP
10. 	(172) 	Mike Napoli 	C
11. 	(209) 	Austin Kearns 	RF
12. 	(210) 	Bronson Arroyo 	SP
13. 	(247) 	Adam Jones 	LF
14. 	(248) 	Tom Gorzelanny 	SP
15. 	(285) 	Daric Barton 	1B
16. 	(286) 	David Riske 	RP
17. 	(323) 	David DeJesús 	CF
18. 	(324) 	Mark Reynolds 	3B
19. 	(361) 	Carlos Villanueva 	SP,RP
20. 	(362) 	Jamie Walker 	RP
21. 	(399) 	David Eckstein 	SS
22. 	(400) 	Javier Valentín 	C
23. 	(437) 	Carlos Gómez 	LF,RF
24. 	(438) 	Ronnie Belliard 	2B

I really wasn’t expecting to take a pitcher in the first round, but since I got back-to-back picks and I didn’t have to worry about losing the next guy on my list, I went ahead and pulled the trigger on Peavy – he was top guy left in my personal ranking at that point. Teixeira next was obvious – best guy on the board at that point.

When I woke up 36 picks later, at the 57th pick in the draft, I had only one hitter position filled and there was not a lot left on the board at 2B or SS. Weeks in the 3rd round sounds crazy if you haven’t been a league this deep, and I might regret not taking Kinsler or Uggla instead, but whatever. Putz in the 4th – well, I always end up punting the saves category in this league, so I decided to at least make an attempt this time. After that, back to bed for a while.

My next pick was the 95th overall. Despite insisting to myself that I wasn’t going to be short of power again, I went with . . . another SP. Looking at what was left, it seemed to me that after Young, the available SPs dropped off a good bit. So I went against my stated intention and took my third pitcher in the first five picks. Then, in order not to completely miss out on having power in the lineup, I took . . . oh, right, need a SS. So Renteria it was.

Once the glaciers receded and it was time to pick again for the 134th and 135th picks in the draft, there was no question it had to be an OF guy with power. Cust was clearly the best guy left for that, especially given his OBP. 3B was a still a gaping hole for me, and there was no one who appealed much left on the board, but Lowell’s been good to me in the past, and I’m hoping he holds up for another year – if so, he’s not going to hurt me in the rate categories and might produce just enough in the other categories to let me sneak by.

A sane person who hadn’t been driven to madness by watching another 36 guys leave the board for other teams would probably not have taken a setup guy with his next pick. All I can say is that Betancourt was the highest ranked guy on my list left on the board by then, and there seems a reasonable chance he could end up as the closer in Cleveland. If not, he’s still going to get his holds and will help some with the rate stats. After that, it became obvious that I had to grab a catcher with a reasonable chance of being the starter for his team, or else have to guess when guys in a platoon or backup situation might be starting. In another year, I’d have waited a few more rounds and taken Gregg Zaun – he’s consistently been good for at least 100 games, 10-12 HR, and a respectable OBP around .350, plus 45-50 RBI. But there’s that steroid thing that may affect his ability to play. So I went ahead and grabbed Napoli as it seemed unlikely he’d last another 36 picks, and catchers were pretty thin on the ground by then.

Another OF with at least the possibility of some power was a screaming need by the next time I got to pick – 209 players in. There were some options out there, but I decided that none of them appealed to me more than the possibility that Austin Kearns will recover some of his power now that he’s out of RFK for his home games. And since overemphasizing pitching had become the theme of the draft for me, I took Bronson Arroyo at number 210 – I was reasonably confident in the next few guys I wanted in the OF would last until I could take them (and I was right). There were a couple of position players i was hoping might last until my next pair of picks, but they didn’t, so at that point I decided that Adam Jones was the one guy left out there who was eligible at CF and was likely to start this year. I’m not sure how to explain Gorzelanny next, though I recall it seemed to make sense at the time – he actually helped me out last year, which should tell you something about my team last year.

By round 15, a solid prospect who’s very likely to start and could potentially hit 40 HR, with an OPS over 1.000 was too good to pass up, especially given the paucity of power on my team that was becoming obvious even to me, so I took a flyer on Daric Barton – otherwise, my entire season would depend almost entirely on Teixeira. Then another freakin’ pitcher – David Riske, who might get saves, or might get holds, or might get bupkus. Really should have taken another position player here rather than waiting out another 36 picks – lost several guys I’d probably have been better off having between this pick and the next pair.

By then, I obviously had to have another OF and another IF. David DeJesus doesn’t really excite me, but at the time he was expected to start for KC in CF, and I needed someone else eligible there. Mark Reynolds was simply a slot-filler, to have another 3b-eligible guy if Lowell goes down – if he Reynolds gets to play, however, and gets to hit 4th as has been discussed, he could be the best bargain of my draft.

After two straight position players, I had to have another pitcher, right? Villanueva has pitched extremely well this spring, to the extent that the press is suggesting Milwaukee may plug him into the starting rotation. He’s helped me out before with the rate stats and holds, so it didn’t really seem like a stretch. By this time, there just weren’t many position players left that I wanted as much as Villanueva and Walker – after that, Eckstein, Valentin, Gomez, and Belliard were chosen because they have a chance at playing time and filled a slot on the team as a backup.

Despite having a rationale for almost every pick and some idea going in of what I wanted to do, I once again ended up with team that has virtually no power, meaning I’ll likely end up somewhere between 14th and 19th once again, which will make 3 years running.

7

Former Doper White Lightning has passed along a summary of The Petunias’s draft. Here’s we go.

Batting
C - John Buck
1B - Mark Teahen (1B, RF)
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Carlos Guillen (1B, SS)
IF - Ben Broussard (1B, LF, RF)
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Chris B. Young
RF - Delmon Young (CF, RF)
OF - Matt Diaz (LF)
UT - Jason Giambi (1B)
B - Jonny Gomes (LF, RF)
B - Jason Kubel (LF)
B/AAA - Adam Lind (LF)

Pitching
SP - Johan Santana
SP - James Shields
SP - Pedro Martinez
SP - Dustin McGowan
SP - Jon Lester
SP - Manny Parra
RP - Rafael Soriano
RP - Jeremy Accardo
RP - Kazuo Fukumori
RP - Masahide Kobayashi

I had something of a strategy coming into the draft, although not as cohesive as Julie’s. Of course, not knowing what your draft position is makes it harder, but after some thought I decided I’d try to reach for Johan. The way I figure it, there are maybe 5 guys with a decent shot at 250 Ks (Santana, Peavy, Bedard, Matsuzaka, Javy Vazquez, plus Kazmir if he doesn’t miss too much of April), and of those only Santana and Matsuzaka really have a shot at 20 wins, and Santana’s ERA could easily be a run and a half lower than Matsuzaka’s. I know I don’t need to justify that Johan is the #1 fantasy pitcher, what I’m getting at is the gap is much wider than most people think. And in a deep league like this, nobody’s going to put together a steamroller on either side of the ball. So my logic is, I take Santana and then focus on 5+ category hitters at scarce positions until nobody good is left, and then start worrying about the rest of my pitching staff. Having the #5 pick worked very well for that, because I knew I’d be able to get some very solid hitters around the turn in rounds 2 and 3.

I’d say I executed that strategy fairly well. Well, except for jumping on Manny (no speed and not ideal position-wise), but the guy’s an absolute stud, in what amounts to a contract year, coming off some down numbers in '07 giving him something to prove, with a new outlook on life and hitting (he’s read The Secret – no, I’m serious). Then I got Carlos Guillen, who should be huge this year with some speed, some pop, good rates, and hitting in the middle of the best lineup I think MLB has seen this century.

After that I went Kinsler, Chris Young, Delmon Young – a 20/20 guy at 2B, a 30/30 guy at CF, and a 22-year old in his second season with the skills to go 30/30 who qualifies at all 3 OF spots. I’m totally set up the middle and should already be competitive in most offensive categories assuming I can fill the rest of my lineup with guys that won’t kill me.

The board cooperated after that point, setting up James Shields in the 7th round (pick #119), who I think is for real, followed by Rafael Soriano – about 10 rounds earlier than I drafted him in this league last year – and Pedro Martinez, who I think is primed for a big-time year. Everybody’s favorite sleeper Dustin McGowan and a reach for Jeremy Accardo around the 10/11 turn set up the remainder of my team’s core. As I’ve been saying to anyone who asked, it takes 18 months to come back from Tommy John surgery, I don’t care what B.J. Ryan is doing in Florida. And events bear me out – he’s not going north with the team, and Accardo is the closer. Even if Ryan takes the job back in 6 or 8 weeks (I call that 50/50 or so depending on how Toronto management handles the situation), Accardo immediately becomes an elite setup guy.

So that was basically the end of my draft and no subsequent picks need to be discussed. I had holes to fill at 1B (easy), 3B (I have some guys still on the board that I like), C (problematic), and additional players to acquire for the IF, OF, and UT, plus some relievers and the back end of my staff. John Buck behind the plate was a desperation pull. Last year I went into the season with Mike Napoli as my only catcher, and that didn’t go that well (although I’d take it this year), but Buck is assured of a job and could knock 20 dingers. My other spots were filled with guys that wouldn’t drag me down in any category, though there’s not a ton of upside out of guys like Teahen, Iwamura, and Diaz, though they all should be fairly solid. One exception is Broussard, who I expect to have a career year in Texas this season.

I figured I could sneak in a couple of the Japanese relievers late to cover holds, which I did (and I like Fukumori to sneak in at least a half-dozen saves if not more, actually, and I also believe Kobayashi will be in the mix for save chances when Borowski finally loses his job (although we all seem to take on faith that event to be ‘inevitable’ despite it not having happened for all of '07) – you can’t ignore 250 career saves), and you can always pick up a few holds during the season as well. The rest of the guys at the back end of my staff all have a chance for big years.

Overall I think I drafted a team that will compete across the board. I like my pitching staff very much; I think the ‘Johan plus rounds 7-10’ strategy worked out well, although I will admit that Miggy sure would look nice on this team. I think my biggest problem is a possible power deficiency. If Manny doesn’t come back huge, if I’m wrong about Broussard, and my young guys suffer setbacks (Kinsler, Young) or simply fail to break out (Young, Diaz, Gomes, Kubel), I could be hurting in run production and SLG. Having a total non-factor playing 3B doesn’t help at all. I’ll definitely be looking to upgrade at that spot.

8

Shoot, I always manage to miss these… :frowning: