As noted above, the trade should go through. However when the draft recaps get written up I will not be favorable in my appraisal. Johnson is way ahead of the pack of WRs, way way ahead. Mendenhall is about as proven as Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews. As an Illini alum I’m pulling for the guy but he’s a giant leap of faith and is probably among the most overvalued players in the draft. Remind me, how successful were Pittsburgh running backs over the last 2 seasons?
In the Draft Analysis section on the Yahoo page.
This mistake everyone seems to be making here is in assuming that because Player A went for X and Player B went for X+2, that they are now somehow of an equal value. You’re all forgetting that each position warrants different values, and the majority of those values are determined by Yahoo’s arbitrary “projected value” which people use as a guide for when to bid or not, anyway. Consider that we start 3 WRs and 2 RBs, so they aren’t equal to begin with, even if a RB and WR go for the same price.
Are you all seriously trying to say that because Ray Rice went for $49 and Steven Jackson went for %51 that Steven Jackson is more valuable? Of course not, because that would be historically stupid. As we all know (and yet some have forgotten), the draft is a fluid process where value changes as players are drafted and owners spend money. You just can’t possibly say that two players are of equal value because they went for the same (or similar prices), especially across positions.
I don’t like the trade (it’s another one of those “I’ll give you eight bucks and a dollar for a ten” types of deals) but it isn’t nearly bad enough to call it an ass raping. SenorBeef, once again, has suckered someone into the 2 for 1 trap, but it’s fair enough that I won’t veto it. It makes me mad, but it isn’t worth a veto.
Legadu Nanee was a throw in, plain and simple. He was included only because Beef didn’t have a cheaper WR to throw away. Although I love the jab that we aren’t all swayed by his inclusion into the trade because Beef is the only one who has heard of him. That’s great. As if the Fantasy Focus alone hasn’t made him a sleeper darling across the country, let’s just remember he’s the third or fourth option on his team, depending on how they use their RB in the passing game. Stellar.
I don’t see how position enters into it. That is to say, positional scarcity and the ability to find an adequate alternative – either later in the draft or via free agency – are already factored in to the price that people are willing to pay to get a player. That’s why RBs are the most prized possessions, even though they score about the same as WRs and significantly less than QBs. So, if the market for fantasy football players was totally rational, then a $40 RB and a $40 WR should be expected to provide the same amount of marginal value to their teams.
Of course in one draft there are going to be idiosyncrasies that ought not to be generalized from, but in a large collection of drafts, taken together and averaged, those idiosyncrasies will *largely *be smoothed out – so, that on average Ray Rice goes for $52 while Steven Jackson goes for $39 is a pretty good indicator that one is expected to be of more value than the other.
I suspect that those who think this trade is really unbalanced have the Average Draft Position from standard drafts in the front of their minds: Andre Johnson is a mid-late 1st Rounder, while Mendenhall is an early 2nd Rounder, so swapping them seems really unbalanced. But why is ADP more indicative of actual or expected marginal, fantasy football utility than average auction price? Both types of drafts have features that could potentially warp the “market” and make their results inaccurate as a list of most-to-least useful. (What’s really weird is that I’m apparently like most other people: I would draft Andre Johnson ahead of Mendenhall in a regular draft, but going into the auction the other night I was definitely willing to pay more for Mendenhall; there’s a disconnect somewhere.)
It’s actually a really interesting subject. Why are some players worth more in an auction draft than a standard draft? Which (aggregate) result tends to be more indicative of a player’s usefulness? I have some unformed, totally untested ideas, but basically I have no clue.
Varlos already mostly covered this. Yes, if one player had a greater utility to a team than another, a rational bidder would reflect that in the way they bid for that player. If people were willing to bid up to $46 average for Mendenhall, in what way is he not in their view more valuable to their team than a $37 Andre Johnson?
As for the particular example you use - as Varlos said, you can point to flukey data points. In the aggregate, people think Mendenhall is more valuable to their team to the tune of $9 or so.
Positional values are already reflect the utility of the positions. The top TEs go for $18 or so, the top kicker goes for $2 or $3. Obviously it makes no sense to ask someone if they’re willing to trade the #15 RB for the #1 kicker just because the kicker is more valuable within his position. RBs are far and away the most valuable position, so there’s no inconsistency for the the #7 RB (average yahoo aucton price) is considered more valuable on average than the #1 WR. That data point is proven - if people thought Johnson was worth more, they’d bid more for him. Edit: In as far as auction goes. I can’t yet explain the difference in relative price between auction and snake drafts, but that’s an interesting question.
Well, that’s good. Your level of anger is the best feedback I have on trades I make.
There’s no need for you to be nasty like this. I wasn’t taking a jab at anyone. I was saying that Naanee isn’t this worthless tier 18 WR as he’s being discounted as. Most people don’t seem to be that familiar with him, but he could finish the season with solid WR2 type numbers.
And Naanee actually wasn’t the cheapeast throw-in I could find - I offered him his pick of Massaquoi, Jacoby Jones, or Naanee and that’s who he wanted.
I started a thread to discuss this issue.
Something odd. When I go to the fantasy football page on yahoo, the one that displays all your teams, for two of my leagues it correctly lists the matchup, but for this league, it lists “bye”. That’s not right since I’m facing Jammers, and as far as I can tell nothing is wrong with the league. Anyone know what’s wrong?
I sent Charles (the original trade protester) an e-mail asking him to read the thread and see if that addressed his concerns. Haven’t heard back yet. But otherwise there were no veto votes. So even if he doesn’t rescind his veto, 1 vote isn’t sufficient to block it, right? I asked a few posts ago and I really don’t know what should be approrpiate here.
Again, I don’t want my status as commissioner to influence this whatsoever. I want no advantages. It looks like that by default, if I had the league on vote to block trades rather than commissioner approval, the 1 veto vote wouldn’t cancel it anyway - I would imagine it would take at least 4 - so I’m not changing the course of things if hypothetically we had default settings and the commish approval didn’t matter.
I asked It’s Not Rocket Surgery if he was still cool with the trade and he’s fine with it. He didn’t want to cause any drama, but I think the objections were probably overreactions anyway.
So are we cool with letting the trade stand? Again, I’m leaving myself at the mercy of the league. I’m not going to try to favor myself.
Plus I bet this year after all this, Mendenhall is going to run for 1500/20, Legedu Naanee becomes the next Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson is going to shatter his nutsack in week 1 and put on IR.
If I had a vote, I’d vote to allow the trade.
I’ve been getting that weird “bye” listing on my main yahoo page as well. I’m actually getting it for two leagues.
Posted something similar in the all-pro league:
Now that all the drafts are over I’ll try to write some reviews. At least a self review, but I’ll see if I can find time to do reviews of other players. I probably won’t have much time until I get home in two weeks though, and by then people won’t be so big on draft reviews.
If anyone else wants to write reviews, I really appreciate reading them. Anything anyone wants to post is good, the post draft analysis/discussion is one of my favorite parts of FF, and I love going back at the end of the year to see how the predictions pan out. Self-reviews are good too. Or some sort of unconventional review like ranking RB, WR, and QB corps from 1-12, etc.
Jules Andre has done some very good and thorough reviews in the past. Hamlet did some good summaries and overviews last year. Omni also does very good reviews, but I know he’s busy with the keeper league and I was hoping he’d do some all-pro reviews.
Anyway, anything anyone wants to post would be good.
I forgot to add unspent auction dollars to the FAAB amounts, I just did that now.
Posting this message to all my leagues.
We use a built-in system in yahoo to handle free agents during gameday with one tweak. In the old days, when a player went down and his backup suddenly became valuable, the person closest to their computer would be the one who rushed in and added him to his roster. It hampers the enjoyment of the games to always be worried about that, so we came up with a system whereby at the start of each player’s game, they were put on waivers for two days rather than being free agents. That way if MJD went down, everyone would have a chance to put a waiver claim on Rashard Jenning. Since we’re using FAAB this year, it would then be resolved by who bid the most.
We used to do this manually, but now yahoo has an automatic system for doing this. It has two settings - free agents go on waivers after the first game of the week, or players go on waivers from Sunday at 1pm. I’m going to use the latter, otherwise Thursday night games would make it so you couldn’t pick up a guy on Saturday. But this leaves us with one potential problem - if, say, Adrian Peterson were to go down in tonight’s Thursday game, his backup would be up for grabs as a free agent, which defeats the purpose of our system. So our custom rule is this: Even though yahoo waits till Sunday at 1pm to put all players on waivers, we consider any free agent involved in a game to also be on waivers. The proper thing to do if you want to pick up a player who played in a Thursday or Saturday night game is to wait until Sunday when all free agents go on waivers, including the ones from the games earlier in the week. If someone picks up a player from a team involved in those games, the pickup will be manually reverted.
Any questions?
How’s about a little draft review?
One thing I noticed while looking at this draft is that with just 10 teams in the league, almost every team is stacked. It’s hard to condemn someone for overpaying or underpaying to get a guy they like too. There’s little to no worry about finding that super sleeper for $1, instead it’s how you balance your budget to get the best players you can.
Let’s start at the bottom up.
** EXPLODING PANCAKES **
Rashard Mendenhall $35
Jahvid Best $28
Aaron Rodgers $36
Ronnie Brown $19
Calvin Johnson $27
Arian Foster $19
Minnesota $2
Pittsburgh $3
Rob Bironas $1
Jacoby Jones $5
Tony Gonzalez $4
Bernard Scott $2
Kellen Winslow $4
Legedu Naanee $5
Terrell Owens $5
Mohamed Massaquoi $5
Overpaid: Aaron Rodgers goes for $36. I like Rodgers, but the simple fact is that, while he is a stud, he’s not the ONLY stud QB. He’s not $10 better than Brady or $16 more than Schaub.
Value picks: The RB’s. Although I think Best is overrated at $28 on a still developing Lions team, the others were pretty accurate gets. I don’t like Mendenhall, but he’s fine where he went. Foster has enough upside to call $19 a bit of a steal.
Team: A very good team with RB/WR issues. Ignoring value for a second, I don’t think Mendenhall, Best, Brown, and Foster can win a championship for you. They all have very nice upside, but not one in the bunch doesn’t come with some serious question marks. I think the crew is doomed to underacheive this year. The same can be said for the WR crew, which has Megatron and … a lot of hope. Jacoby (yes, we’re on a first name basis), Legedu, and Mohammed may have the best names in the league, but they’re practically clones: high upside, unproven WR. If one or two of them emerge, there’s hope. But there’s a lot of questions too.
Overall: Rodgers and Megatron make a great start, but there is way too much risk on this team for me. In a 10 team league, I want more proven guys. But if things go the right way and the right players emerge, this team could be great. It will all come down to whether the youth/unprovenness in the WR/RB crews can put up points. I, personally, don’t think so.
** QUENTIN JAMMERS **
Jamaal Charles $31
Ray Rice $49
Peyton Manning $31
Roddy White $23
Kevin Kolb $4
Brent Celek $9
Steve Smith $12
Ahmad Bradshaw $9
Pierre Garcon $7
Clinton Portis $7
Johnny Knox $8
T.J. Houshmandzadeh $5
San Diego $1
Willis McGahee $1
Laurent Robinson $1
Robbie Gould $1
Overpaid: Jamaal Charles (31), Portis (7) and Steve Smith (NYG). Three guys who were only slightly overpriced, but that I think will disappoint their owners with their inconsistency.
Great Value: Ray Rice, a consensus top 4 back, went 7th highest. Great value. Ahmad Bradshaw was another nice get at $9. I expect good things from him this year.
Team: A very intriguing mix of the consistent and the inconsistent. Manning and White are solid plays every week, and Rice is getting there. But with Charles, Smith, Bradsahw, Garcon, and Knox, you don’t know whether you’re getting 100 and a TD or 30 yards week to week. There’s some nice upside with Kolb, Garcon, Knox, and Robinson too. I think the geezers Portis and Housh will end up on the cutting room floor though.
Overall: This team should be competitive each week, but will disappear, and may kick ass, week to week. It’s a nice balance, but this team’s owner may be pulling his hair out week to week deciding who to start.
** CROWLEY’S BENTLEY **
Beanie Wells $31
Tom Brady $26
Larry Fitzgerald $25
Dallas Clark $12
Reggie Wayne $22
Pierre Thomas $25
Stephen Gostkowski $2
Marques Colston $17
Justin Forsett $11
Philadelphia $2
Malcom Floyd $10
Owen Daniels $2
Michael Bush $5
Matthew Stafford $1
Tim Hightower $1
Bernard Berrian $7
Overpaid: Bernard Berrian for $7. Ridiculous price to pay for a one trick pony with iffy hands. Before Thursday’s game, I thought he was good value, but I don’t seem him stepping it up as the #1 target for Favre. Waste. Also Beanie Wells for $31. I think I got blinded by his upside and ignored his injury history, which is already rearing it’s ugly head. I forsee Brian Westbrook type “do I or don’t I start himi” headaches every damn week.
Value: Hightower for 1, Pierre Thomas for $25, Michael Bush for $5. All three guys should be starters, and were pretty good value when I got them. They also all have their own set of problems, though. And Reggie Wayne at $22 was excellent value, even though he may have a drop off. .
Team: I like my team, but I don’t love it. Wayne and Thomas were great values, but I personally have questions about them. But they were smart picks. And my RB crew is shaky. Overall, I think I have one of the best teams in the league IF Wells lives up to my expectations. I also think that I have some nice upside in Forsett, Floyd, and Bush. I should be fine.
** SHOW ME YOUR TDS **
Michael Turner $57
Miles Austin $29
Shonn Greene $37
Robert Meachem $6
Greg Jennings $27
Vincent Jackson $8
Joe Flacco $9
Jermichael Finley $12
Donovan McNabb $2
Mason Crosby $1
Cincinnati $1
Santonio Holmes $3
Thomas Jones $2
Chris Chambers $1
Derrick Mason $3
Donald Brown $2
Overpriced: Miles Austin at $29, Shonn Greene at $37. If you like these guys, those prices aren’t so bad. I just don’t like them. I don’t think Austin will be a top 3 receiver, and Greene won’t be a top 10 back.
Value: A fairly nice job of trolling for the cheapos. Thomas Jones and Donald Brown for 2, Holmes for 3, McNabb for 2. All the best you can expect for so little money. But will it be enough.
Team: I really like Turner, Finley, and Jennings to have great years. But outside of those three, this team is full of “guys Hamlet doesn’t want to draft”. I think the Flacco/McNabb QB situation will be frustrating as hell, and I just don’t like Austin and Greene (and I despise Brian Austin Green, 90210 was garbage). I know I should. It’s completely rational to like and/or fear them. I just don’t. If those two guys don’t collapse and if Flacco plays like he did at the beginning of last year for all of this year, this team could very well make a mockery of me. I just not feeling the love.
** VARLOS ZZZZZZZZ **
Maurice Jones-Drew $56
Adrian Peterson $59
Sidney Rice $11
Eli Manning $6
Garrett Hartley $2
Miami $2
Matt Ryan $5
Matt Forte $20
Mike Wallace $9
Visanthe Shiancoe $3
Wes Welker $13
Anthony Gonzalez $3
Devin Hester $5
Reggie Bush $2
Devery Henderson $3
Early Doucet $1
Overpaid: Your 2nd stud RB. I understand the “studs and scrubs” arguments, and they are compelling in a 10 team league, but I think it’s the road to fantasy hell. That money could have been better spent. Like on a stud QB, stud WR, or someone not coming off injury.
Value: Forte for $20 was an excellent get, and $11 dollars for two middle of the road QB’s isn’t bad at all.
Team: Me no likey. While I’ll be terrified to see Peterson and Jones Drew on the same team every week, the rest of the roster does absolutely nothing for me. Rice is gone for half a year and will just eat up a spot, Welker is coming off major knee surgery, and the rest of the WR’s are iffy, at best. I also think Manning’s numbers go south this year, but Ryan should be an OK start. If two guys can carry a fantasy team, this team will win it all. I just don’t think they can.
** CHICAGO CUTLERY **
Steven Jackson $51
Frank Gore $55
Jay Cutler $11
Randy Moss $29
C.J. Spiller $18
San Francisco $2
Marion Barber $7
Darren Sproles $2
Carson Palmer $3
Donald Driver $7
Rob Gronkowski $1
Lee Evans $4
Brian Westbrook $1
LaDainian Tomlinson $2
Adam Vinatieri $1
Mike Williams $1
Overpaid: Steven Jackson. I have a serious mancrush on Steven Jackson. The guy is a fucking beast, who plays hard and doesn’t bitch and moan about the terrible situation he’s in. He reminds me a bit of Sweetness, playing hard, fighting for every yard, and doing well, even though he’s stuck on a really bad team. But $51 dollars was too much given his health risk, his lack of Tds, a rookie quarterback, and a porous defense that will have the Rams playing from behind a lot. Also
Value: Cutler at 1/3 of the price of Rodgers was very nice, and Palmer at $3 was outstanding. Amazing value at the QB position.
Team: Another studs and scrubs team, at least this team did it right. Although he overpaid for Jackson, he was still able to add in a stud WR in Moss, and high upside QB’s in Cutler and Palmer. The TE position blows though. If Cutler and/or Palmer can crack the top 8 QB scorers, this team could easily be a force. But they’re an injury away from catastrophic failure. It’ll be interesting to see how this team does.
Do you like my team better after the Mendenhall/Nanee for Andre Johnson swap? I get some of that proven talent you like while still remaining pretty strong (best 2 matchups out of Ronnie Brown, Arian Foster, and Jahvid Best) at RB.
** NEW NEW YORK BENDERS **
Chris Johnson $68
Andre Johnson $37
Michael Crabtree $16
Tony Romo $19
Jerome Harrison $6
Green Bay $3
Brandon Jacobs $8
Montario Hardesty $5
Ryan Succop $1
Zach Miller $4
Matt Moore $1
Fred Jackson $3
Darren McFadden $1
Devin Aromashodu $7
Kenny Britt $3
Jabar Gaffney $3
Overpaid: CJ and AJ. Yes, I know they are the top rated at their position, but CJ was $9 more than the nearest other RB, and AJ was $8 more than the nearest other WR. That’s too much. And Montario Hardesty was a waste of 1 dollar, let alone 5.
Value: With no choice but to mine the cheapos, I like Harrison at 6, Miller at 4, McFadden’s worth 1, and Jackson is worth 3. Romo at 19 was also good value.
Team: Ugh. CJ and AJ are great players and together with Romo make a fantastic core. But when you pay that much for 2 guys, you don’t have the luxury of missing on a few guys in the rest of the draft. Unless Crabtree, Harrison, Jacobs, Miller, and another WR from the crew all perform, this team will win a few huge weeks, but suffer the rest.