The best values and biggest overpays in the draft. I haven’t worked out a spreadsheet for optimal adjustments to 20 man leagues or anything like that, so I’m just commenting on what I see as good values or overpriced relative to what others went for.
Running Back
Good values
Knowshon Moreno $29 Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
He’s been a dissapointment but he should have a greater load this year - and $29 is cheap compared to some of the crazy RB prices.
Jonathan Stewart $29 Exploding Pancakes
Possibly the steal of the RBs. There are plenty of touches to go around in carolina and he keeps getting more.
Ronnie Brown $28 Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
I like Ronnie Brown this year. He’s a risk - injured 17 times a year - but he’s one of the best points per game RBs there is.
Jerome Harrison $27 Curry Porkrinds
I’m in man-love with Harrison and Hardesty going down just solidifies his value.
Matt Forte $27 Hamlets Out of Ideas
Due for a big rebound this year. Probably not as good as his rookie season, but closer to that than last year.
Clinton Portis $11 Phoenix Redbirds
He seems like the oldest 29 year old ever, but he might find a way to rack up 1000+ yards again under Shanahan.
Tim Hightower $9 Hamlets Out of Ideas
May get nearly half of Ari’s rushing fantasy points.
Thomas Jones $9 Curry Porkrinds
I like Thomas to steal points from Jamal Charles owners this year. Good flex starter.
Leon Washington $4 Garcon’s Cedilla
I like his chances to outperform guys in Washington, or at least return to his return yards/rush yards/rec yards combined usefulness
Bernard Scott $2 Exploding Pancakes
Seems like something is going to catch up to Benson. Injury, arrest, or remembering that he sucks. Scott is talented and ready to take on the whole Bengals load. Best handcuff gamble this year IMO.
Jahvid Best is a borderline value at $36 because I love his upside. Best shot at being this year’s Ray Rice. But I couldn’t put him on the list because he’s not that cheap, and he’s unproven.
Justin Forsett at $22 is borderline too - such an ambiguous situation in Seattle, but he has a high upside.
Overpaid
Chris Johnson $85 Scissor Me Timbers
He may be okay in an absolute value, point per dollar, adjusted for the league way, but I doubt he’s worth $13 more than AP/MJD/etc. He’s going to be top 5 this year but I don’t think he’s a guaranteed #1 - his workload won’t be as big.
Rashard Mendenhall $65 Not Sure
Don’t think he has $15 value over the other young starters in favorable situations - Greene and Matthews who were priced at $49 and $50.
Steven Jackson $58 Garcon’s Cedilla
He can’t score TDs because he won’t get the chances and I doubt he’ll hold up. Wouldn’t want him for most of the guys who went $10 cheaper.
Ricky Williams $20 Unrelated Siblings
His great season last year seems flukey to me. He’s old, Brown is healthy, and the Dolphins will rely less on the running game this year. Only worth this much if Ronnie Brown gets hurt badly early.
I want to put LeSean McCoy at $39 on this list but it’s hard to argue with the starting back of the Eagles. He was just really dissapointing in his chances last year.
I also don’t really like CJ Spiller at $24 with all the competition in Buffalo, plus they suck. But not quite bad enough to make the list - there’s definitely some upside there.
WR
Most of the top WRs seem pretty reasonably priced, especially compared to the top RBs.
Good Values
Greg Jennings $35 Hamlets Out of Ideas
I like him to rebound and be a top 5 WR, and $35 is a pretty good price.
Brandon Marshall $35 Scissor Me Timbers
I never like Marshall but he always produces. Solid value here.
Anquan Boldin $27 Exploding Pancakes
He’s going to get a chance to be the focal point of an offense with a developing QB who’s never had anyone of his talent before. Like Ronnie Brown, his points per game is phoenominal when he plays. I think if healthy he’ll be a top 7 WR, so he’s priced well here.
Joshua Cribbs $6 The Gusterrhoids
Cribbs will have 1700+ return yards, 400+ rushing yards, and 300+ rec yards. Definitely worth owning in this league.
Mohamed Massaquoi $6 Unrelated Siblings
He’s the #1 receiver on an improved passing offense. He managed 600 yards last year with no passing offense whatsoever, and Jake Delhomme is looking rejuvinated with a fresh start. I’d give him 50/50 for 1000 yards, and that’s a great gamble for a $6 pick.
Darrius Heyward-Bey $5 Up by Three
He’s got some high upside under Campbell.
Mike Thomas $3 CMFD
This will end up being looked back on as one of the big steals of the draft. I wanted him myself but $2 was my max bid at the time - I had the winning bid on him until .000001 seconds were left on the clock, at which point CMFD snatch him away from me.
Louis Murphy $2 Garcon’s Cedilla
Nate Burleson $2 Exploding Pancakes
Greg Camarillo $2 Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
All of those guys are going to get at least 600 yards with some upside. Great value to fill out the third WR slot here.
Lance Moore $1 Scissor Me Timbers
He put up almost 1000 yards just 2 years ago. I’d gamble on any NO receiver for $1.
Davone Bess $1 The Brute Squad
He should be a solid #2 or #3 and get some punt return yards. Also may end up with 80+ recs. Love him for a buck.
Danny Amendola $1 CMFD
Looks like he might be the #1 in St. Louis. For a buck, I’d take that gamble all day.
Early Doucet $1 Court Jesters
Good gamble, good sleeper.
Overpaid
Steve Smith $50 Frosted_Lightning
This was apparently a typo and meant for $30 so I guess it doesn’t really belong on this list. But for completeness…
Donald Driver $20 Unrelated Siblings
He’s old, he got his knees replaced with hamster wheels. He’s in a prolific offense, but it’s also full of good receivers. There are higher upside guys to take at this price point.
Jacoby Jones $18 Phoenix Redbirds
I like Jones’ potential too, but at $18 you could get a legit proven receiver.
I don’t have a lot of bad things to say about the WR prices. Wayne and Austin are a little overpriced, as are Braylon Edwards and maybe Housh, but the receiver pricing is pretty savvy.
QB
Good Value
Matt Schaub $35 Return of Ryan Leaf
Philip Rivers $34 Phoenix Redbirds
Tony Romo $32 The Brute Squad
I like all of those guys roughly equally much at their value. Rivers may be a notch below due to a predicted regression, but at solid. Romo is the best value of the bunch.
Donovan McNabb $13 The Gusterrhoids
McNabb doesn’t get enough real football or fantasy respect.
Carson Palmer $10 Hamlets Out of Ideas
I don’t think Cinci will go pass-wild, but he’s great value for $10 there.
Derek Anderson $3 Exploding Pancakes
I like his ceiling. He’s flakey as hell but good receivers can make him into the 2007 monster he was. I’m willing to bet $3 on that, although obviously I’d be more comfortable if I had a solid starter in front of him in case he doesn’t pan out.
Jake Delhomme $1 Garcon’s Cedilla
Jake’s in for a rebound this year.
Overpaid
Aaron Rodgers $60 Curry Porkrinds
I love Rodgers, and $60 may actually be very solid points per dollar in this league, but I don’t like him at $15 more than Brees and $17 more than Brady.
Joe Flacco $30 Unrelated Siblings
He has a potential big year with his new weapons, but I can’t justify this price at only $2 less than Romo (who will significantly outperform him) and $4/5 less than Schaub/Rivers