Draft is scheduled for 8:30 pm EDT/5:30 pm PDT tomorrow. We still have two open slots under the max of 20 available, plus one prior owner who hasn’t rejoined.
True to form, as soon as I got things squared away for this, my workload exploded and I’ve done bupkis in the way of prep. And I may be late for the start because of a family event I wasn’t aware of until recently. But, away we go anyway. See everyone tomorrow night.
I’m pretty excited for tonight. Like rackensack, I’ve done zero prep. And there’s a good chance I seriously overvalue any and all Royals players, as I’m still riding a pennant high from last year.
Also, any chance someone would be available this Saturday to fill in for me on a draft? It’s my wife’s birthday, and the draft day is pretty locked in. Anyone who’s a veteran here would be more than adequate as a fill in.
What time on Saturday? I can probably do it as long as it’s a roto league.
I may be a minute or two late, should get home right about 8:30… Hopefully I get the first pick and it just autodrafts Trout for me. 2.5 hours away, getting excited!
Finishing up class right now, so I will be there on time. See you all soon!
Got about 430 players pre-ranked – spent too much time on that and not enough on work the last 24 hours. But I’ll probably still have no idea what to do most of the time.
I am ridiculously pleased with my team. I got scooped on only one player the whole draft, which is a rarity - sure, guys disappeared out of my queue, but only one was DEFINITELY the guy I was going to pick next. Mostly because I’ve only looked at total SGP value (some components of which I fabricated out of whole cloth) and have no idea which stats I’ve punted. Seriously, given the relative values my spreadsheets indicated, I’d have drafted almost no pitchers.
I hated how rounds 3-8 went at the time for me. I don’t mind them as much looking back but I’m still not thrilled. I may have some time this afternoon at work to do some old school big summaries… we’ll see!
Last Place
1. (4) Giancarlo Stanton (Mia - RF)
I thought 4th was a pretty good slot to end up in, since I had a top tier of four or five guys this year, plus the chance someone might pull the Kershaw trigger and leave even more choice. That didn’t happen, the first harbinger of even more drift towards hitting priorities this year. I think OF is slightly more scarce than IF, and I’m generally happy to be riding with Giancarlo.
2. (31) Buster Posey (SF - C,1B)
I kind of wanted Harper or Braun here, but at least I had a backup ready in Posey. Even his worst-case hitting performance is fine here. The only worry is his worst-case injury performance, but he’s been pretty durable outside of that one time he got broken so badly that they changed the rules. Hopefully he plays even more of 1B this year.
3. (38) Zack Greinke (LAD - SP)
At the time, I thought this would be my least favorite pick of the entire draft: I was pretty set on Upton, had to scramble, had easily the earliest “who the hell is his guy” that I’ve ever had in this draft with Corey Dickerson, generally got frustrated that Greinke was the value guy even though I really didn’t want a pitcher, then ran out of time and pulled the trigger. In retrospect I should have just reached a few picks down for Longoria… but also in retrospect, a solid starter in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s division in a pitcher’s league on a team with a great offense and a great bullpen is not a bad thing. I just hate spending a draft pick on a pitcher when a quarter of them blow something out these days.
4. (65) Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B)
Betts/Davis/Kinsler in the run-up here was my entire queue. I don’t mind Seager, but I’d have preferred a dude with a projected OPS over .800 in the freaking fourth round. If I knew Machado was going to happen I would’ve just slammed Holliday or Heyward here. If I’m being honest about it, this one ends up being my least favorite pick.
5. (72) Christian Yelich (Mia - LF,CF)
Those two outfielders disappear, plus more 2Bs go flying away. Yelich at least has some upside; I don’t like most of the next 15 or 20 picks after me, so I think this was just an awkward round for the stuff I tend to value.
6. (99) Manny Machado (Bal - 3B)
I really like this pick. I still wish I had gotten Pedroia here. Definitely got scooped by Chitwood’s autodraft more than I’m comfortable with.
7. (106) Brett Gardner (NYY - LF,CF)
A little bit of everything, without killing any categories. Kind of a blah pick, but this is another round where everyone’s got some pretty big flaws.
8. (133) Brandon Belt (SF - 1B)
I was hoping to get Xander in round 9, so it was probably for the best that I was upstairs getting some water when he went at the beginning of the 8th. We were starting to get pretty deep into the 1B morass at this point and I didn’t have a single one, so I went with the guy with talent/upside over relatively more reliable LaRoche and Moss. Didn’t love the pick, didn’t hate it, he’s a guy to fill the spot.
9. (140) Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
Finally, in the ninth freaking round, things start to turn around. I like this draft the best when I’m picking against the flow of what everyone else wants. As long as Castro doesn’t 2013 it again, this is a huge bargain here, especially with the offense around him finally getting better.
10. (167) Jonathan Papelbon (Phi - RP)
I just keep coming back to Papelbon until his arm falls off. I also managed to get some good bites at the second/third tier closer pie despite waiting until the 10th, another symptom of what we’re about to see with hitter scarcity.
11. (174) Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B)
Another IF with the potential to not be terrible. More risk here than I’d like, but we’re basically out of palatable 1B types.
12. (201) Héctor Rondón (ChC - RP)
13. (208) Jenrry Mejía (NYM - SP,RP)
Saves at the right price. Also, SP eligibility! Which is huge if you want to compete in both saves and holds in this league.
14. (235) Rick Porcello (Bos - SP)
15. (242) Ken Giles (Phi - RP)
Homer pick with nothing else I really liked that I had to immediately pick.
Then a huge grab, both as a top holds guy and as Papelbon trade insurance.
16. (269) Scooter Gennett (Mil - 2B)
Terrible against lefties, really good against righties. Hopefully I can pay attention enough to platoon him a bit; the only 2B left with any sort of reliable bat, so I was pretty happy to get him here.
17. (276) Jarrod Dyson (KC - CF)
One category steals guy. There’s actually a bit of a bonus in that his ABs are so low to get those steals - he’s not killing my OPS nearly as much with 250 ABs as someone like, say, Bonifacio would with 450-500 to get those steals. Also, A-Rod got picked in this round, which tells you where we are for hitters with any value at all.
18. (303) Kevin Gausman (Bal - SP)
19. (310) Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)
20. (337) Didi Gregorius (NYY - 2B,SS)
21. (344) Drew Pomeranz (Oak - SP,RP)
Two pitchers that I kind of like but will have no qualms about switching out, and two batters who will at least get ABs and counting stats, even if they’re terrible on a rate basis. Didi in particular is injury insurance more than anything else.
22. (371) Nick Swisher (Cle - 1B,OF)
23. (378) Junichi Tazawa (Bos - RP)
24. (405) Al Alburquerque (Det - RP)
Swisher is sort of intriguing; he’s been not-himself for the last two years, but really only last year was fantasy-useless. Even the 2013 version of him would be great value here. Knees are overrated. Also, I like having someone who starts the year on the DL to make any early FA-grabs a little easier. Two holds guys to finish things off.
I like my team well enough. I’m not thrilled about my thin bench on the hitting side, but that’s not a shocker in this league. I’m not set up to deal with injuries to either Giancarlo or Posey; while you could argue that losing a top-two pick would have cost me any chance of winning anyways, my complete lack of backup options leaves me with more downside than usual. I’ll be back later today with brief thoughts on the other teams, my favorite picks that weren’t mine, and some general stuff.
I didn’t hate the way the draft went, aside from the whole picking 16th again thing. I had one scramble when I got distracted by helping my daughter with her homework between picks and took an RP when I would have been better off with a position player, and had one or two picks sniped out from under me at the last second, and I once again have too much pitching overall, but that’s typical for me. Realized I hadn’t paid any attention to, and thus basically punted, steals, but there’s usually some kid called up in May or June that will help there, so no worries. Looking forward to another season.
Running in reverse order of last year’s standings, with our new team first:
New New York Benders - I like a lot of the things this draft is doing, and of course I love both the name and the full theming (trash talk! icon!). Unfortunately, I also think this team will need both some injury luck and some adroit moves to overcome some of its weaknesses. Picking up holds in-season is easy enough, but if it’s not done just right, it will erode some of that significant investment in starting pitching. The offense also isn’t going to cut it in the OPS categories unless Morales turns back into a beast - in looking for value, this team missed the boat on the big 1B types who can make up for OPS ills. Mark Trumbo is not the answer to anything, in this league. A repeat season by Mesoraco and a fully healthy Tulo are absolutely required.
Out on Waveland - Interesting team here that’s short at least one major league OF, plus some bullpen pieces and some steals. I like Adam Jones a lot in real life, but with his OBP, you’re basically betting he’s back up to 15-20 SBs this year to make him a first round pick in this league. 7 starters that are probably better than my #3, so maybe the play is to get all those innings used up early and then make some trades? I mean, I’m assuming Omni is more reasonable than Amaro about Cole Hamels.
The Gift Baskets - The dreaded last pick team. Which actually isn’t too bad with the “double-pick” part, but does sort of restrict your strategy with top-end guys. A lot of interesting things here, including taking advantage of Han-Ram’s last season of SS eligibility. The offense is walking a very fine line: two bench guys, one of whom has no starting job at the moment and one of whom you would be weighing whether the OPS drain is worse than an empty roster slot would be. Of course, the elephant in the room is that this team picked last, and thus gets pole position for Kris Bryant in just over 10 days after the season starts. Bryant is what, a sixth or seventh round pick here if he’s in the pool? Not bad compensation for going last. Interesting old-guy upside plays with Dickey and Lackey; this is another team with one starter too many that will be looking to DL/drop/trade one at some point. Packaging a starter and a SS in a 2-for-1 is probably the dream move here.
The Spirit of Shea - The Fightin’ Trouts. I really like this team, though it might be a bit too short on power if Zimmerman, Headley, and Heyward don’t rebound. Dee Gordon is terrible in real life but he’s exactly how this sort of roster should handle SBs. My big complaint here would be that, while I like how this pitching staff is built in theory, it can all fall apart really quick if Kluber doesn’t stay elite - the other starters are all potential ERA or WHIP liabilities, and while these relievers are good, those are always volatile. Overall though I think this team has a good base to work with.
Les Miserables - Welp. This team’s season is going to be determined entirely by whether there’s a return-to-form for Molina, Fielder, and Teixeira. Or the long-awaited Billy Butler Breakout, I guess. There just isn’t enough offense here otherwise: this team is probably 60-80 HR and 40-60 SB short of where it needs to be, along with the associated issues in other categories when you don’t have enough HRs. If three out of those four guys have big years, we’re in business. Otherwise we’re going to see some really nice pitching numbers go to waste (7 of first 11 picks on pitchers; I like each of those picks individually, but when the league was basically dry on batters you’d really want to start by round 16 or 17, it’s more than a bit risky).
Iron Condors - This is going to be a really entertaining team to own. A ton of young and/or high variance guys, both on offense and pitching. A couple legit bench options and positional flexibility everywhere other than SS and 1B. Jose Fernandez to stash on the DL. 52 year old Bartolo Colon penciled in for another 200 IP. A-Rod as a starting option. The team needs another closer and some more SBs, but those are relatively solvable problems, even in this league. I don’t usually like to play this sort of team because all of that variance just cancels out somewhere in the middle more often than not, but there’s more “he could totally…!” here than any other two teams combined, and that’s certainly fun.
Isotopes - The Yasmani Tomas 3B experiment may not last long, but long enough to get him 3B eligibility in this league. Very little flexibility with this team in general: other than Tomas, only one other player with more than one position eligibility (even multiple outfield spots!), and he’s a fourth outfielder. Combine with the lack of a bench and this team is more prone than most to becoming the Waiver Wire All-Stars. Other than that I like the offense: it’s a little power-short, but not so drastically that a move or a Myers breakout wouldn’t fix that. I also like the value on the top four starters here; if you’re going to draft SPs, that’s how to do it. Betances is apparently a complete mess down in ST, from what I hear? I haven’t been following it too closely but he was such a beast last year, and this team needs that. Because right now it looks like saves aren’t on the menu, at least to start the year, which basically requires dominance in the other categories.
Forkville… Ferishers(?) - Far be it from me to question anyone’s team name, but is that just a playful alliteration thing? Is it a reference I’m missing? Is it something that I can Google at work? Anyways, this team drafted next to me and I like to think we politely co-existed for most of the draft. Cabrera is always an acceptable bet in the first round, but running him out there at 1B gives up a lot of this value - there are several guys you’d rather have this year if that’s the spot you’re putting him in. C in the UTIL spot is also probably not ideal, not sure if that’s actually the plan or if Yahoo! just stuck him there. Even saying that, though, there’s good potential for power, speed, and offense in general here, as long as Dozier is for real and SD doesn’t sap Upton’s power. The pitching is betting big on a bunch of resurgences: Verlander, Sabathia, Wilson, Nathan. This team is a complete monster if the former aces pitch like aces again; if they come up short, it might be the most SP-starved team in the league. P.S.: Chris Sale was really, really good last year.
Not recalling anything on “Forkville”, but “Ferishers” is a reference to Michael Chabon’s novel “Summerland”, in which baseball features prominently.
Frosted_Lightning - On the one hand, Altuve is pretty rough as a first round pick in this league. On the other hand, Brantley is a complete monster of a second round pick. On the third hand, this team did a great job getting power up and down the lineup and even a little on the bench, not an easy task in this league. Might be a little short on speed even with Altuve’s numbers, but that’s an easier fix. There’s potential upside with a couple of the older guys to go along with risk on the hitters with less of a track record, so there’s probably a better chance that it works than that it all falls apart. The pitching is headlined by a couple of injury-recovery guys, which would be super risky, except Fister is probably still undervalued in this league. The low K’s don’t hurt you nearly as much as the W/ERA/WHIP help you. Needs to be proactive on holds guys early in the year.
Chitwood - This is a fun team, especially for an auto-draft. I remember it was an auto-draft because it stole every second baseman I wanted and can burn in the fires of… sub-optimal position use. This team, like most auto-drafts, is badly in need of some dealing: It’s got Bautista with CF eligibility, two 2B who would be in the top half of starters in this league, a utility guy in real life as the starting SS, no speed, too many starters, a guy in Triple-A, not enough holds… there’s a lot of talent here, indicative of effective pre-ranking, but there’s a lot of work that needs to be done to make the most of it. This team is unfinished, for sure.
Winnowill’s Whiners - Strong team here. Figure one of Moustakas and Moreland is at least usable and Kipnis sees any amount of positive regression, and this is one of the strongest all-around lineups I’ve seen so far. If Tanaka holds together, it’s also one of the best top-to-bottom pitching staffs. Depth is the biggest likely issue: not as much on the pitching side (everyone’s going to have someone break, even if Tanaka is higher risk than most, and SPs are the easiest position to replace), but there are already some part-time guys starting on offense, and if J.D. Martinez comes back to earth, things might get complicated. McCutchen covers for a lot of potential sins, though. And when you say that your spreadsheets say basically never to draft a pitcher… that means that you’re using pretty accurate formulas, in this league!
The Cougars - This team has a lot of guys where I was surprised at how lacking some of the stats were last year, Puig first and foremost. If he’s really a 16/11 guy over 560 AB (so 20/13 or so over a full season), this team might be in trouble. It’s way short on power without a bunch of rebound years, and that’s even if V-Mart doesn’t drop off at all. A lot of how much you like this team also comes down to how you feel about Hamilton in the third. He’s a one and a half category guy to me, so I’m not so much sold. Rusney starting reliably would help a bit, and I loved the Salty pickup in the 24th; decent odds he’s better than Suzuki. Qualls as a late saves pickup was also key, and the pitching as a whole looks solid, if not overwhelming.
Petelin - Love this team; there’s a reason he’s won a few of these. Could probably use slight upgrades at 3B and OF, and even there, the bench has it covered with at least a little upside if guys work out. Love the pitching staff as well, though that’s a bit biased since it’s constructed the same way I’d do it. The only blemish is that Storen was pulled from their ST game today with an apparent injury. I guess the team is a little ratio-vulnerable if Ortiz drops off? I’ll just stop here instead of continuing to drool.
Irvington Tobys - Goldschmidt at 6 in this league is a monster pickup, and lets this team take some risks with the backside of the roster on offense. Which it stretched, a bit - multiple guys who’ll be DL’ed to start the year, Joc and some other young’uns, Justin Smoak may be involved. If Joc works out the offense probably works out; it’s short a little bit of speed, a little bit of power, and some reliable outfielders, all of which he can address. I’m more bearish on the pitching: there are some saves here but not enough, and I don’t buy a few of the starters living up to what they’ve done in the past for a number of reasons, both rational and irrational. Still, this is a serious contender if a few things break right or if a key pickup or two works out.
rackensack diamonds - I have Zobrist envy just looking at this roster; totally wish I had reached for him instead of going with Gardner. This is a really good and flexible team with a couple of awkward holes. It’s might be short a little power even if Chris Carter gets up near 40 HR again, and it’s definitely short a little in speed. Of the teams that finished top half last year, it’s one of the more reliant on guys who have been recently injured, banking on half a dozen guys to recover to previous levels of performance. Complaints noted, Votto in the third round has a chance to be a monster steal, and the roster came together really well for having used such high picks on Scherzer and Kimbrel. This also might be the only team that drafted fewer 2014 IP than I did.
the illest - and finally, we have our 2014 champions. This edition of the roster is insanely top-heavy on pitching, with pitchers chosen in 7 of the first 10 rounds. It’s an interesting experiment: take an owner we know can win it, and draft completely against the trend of most of the other teams. For what it’s worth, the offense still came together passably. The at-bats should at least be there. At first glance this team will be very short on HR and a bit short on SB, but the OPS categories shouldn’t be totally crippled (potential issue with SLG if anything). Let’s talk about that pitching, though. It’s designed to dominate, with five starters from Kershaw through Lynn that are better than the #2s on half the teams in the league, and then a couple more pretty-good starters after that. This team needs to pick up some saves and holds, and probably a little more offense, but it’s going to be facing different challenges and needs than most of the other teams, producing potential buyer’s opportunities in trades.
Yep liked the idea of the Summerland baseball playing ferishers…Fork(s)ville is just a po dunk town in Pennsylvania…
[QUOTE=Kiros]
there are some saves here but not enough
[/QUOTE]
Saves are the most over-valued category in this league, year in and year out. Andrew Miller is my top RP, which I paid an 11th round pick for. He’ll contribute to Ks noteably under the rate that Chapman will, but better than Kimbrel and Holland will - all 4th round selections. His ERA and WHIP will be elite (albeit over 60-70 IP), and will net me a solid portion of Holds, and have a solid chance of converting to saves later in the season if Betances doesn’t pan out).
I don’t disagree, especially if you’re paying tier 1 closer prices. The evaluations are more looking at each team in terms of the numbers we have to hit, year over year, to get to the “middle of the pack” for the most predictable counting stats: with 17 teams and last year’s offensive environment it’s 180 or so HR, 110 SB, 70 saves, 55 holds. It’s certainly possible to blow one of them off and win if you’re great everywhere else, or to work to add a category post-draft, this is just a look at where the teams stand now relative to those targets.
FTR, I am personally prone to undervaluing K/9 coming out of the draft (since simply by getting to the innings cap I end up with a 9 or 10 in K most years), and my blurbs should probably be taken in light of that bias. Also FTR, I literally just noticed that the innings cap is 50 higher than it’s been in the past, so that’s also a thing to think about (very marginal starter bump).
Note: wrote a lot of this before Kiros’ analysis, so any coincidences are just that.
1. (16) Max Scherzer (Was - SP)
Once again, the highest value on the board by my first pick was a premium SP. So once again, I ignored my resolution to pick hitters first and pulled the trigger. Not that upset, as I then felt justified ignoring SP for 10 rounds or so.
2. (19) Josh Donaldson (Tor - 3B)
Highest value on the board as a position player based on my pre-ranking; admittedly, that preranking was based on projection as much as past performance. If you look at who got taken with the next several picks, I don’t see a “man I wish I’d taken him” guy there, so no regrets.
3. (50) Joey Votto (Cin - 1B)
Big injury risk, big risk on whether he returns to form or continues to wane. Most of time faced with a choice between upside potential and proven performance with a potential decline, I tried to go with potential. Went against that here, and not sure it was the right move. But I knew I wanted to take Kimbrel next, and the best available position player 30 picks later was almost certain to be lower value. Matt Holliday maybe, but he’s even older, and coming off a year where his numbers were down somewhat also.
4. (53) Craig Kimbrel (Atl - RP)
Taking Kimbrel relatively early worked out really well for me last year; barring injury it means I can not worry about SV too much early on, until somebody no one’s drafted takes over the closer role somewhere and I can snag them as a free agent to supplement/provide insurance.
5. (84) Jonathan Lucroy (Mil - C,1B)
Catcher-eligible, high OBP & SLG (especially for a catcher). Anything available 30-60 picks later would definitely be a much worse option.
6. (87) Chris Carter (Hou - 1B,LF)
Ain’t lovin’ the OBP, but 37 homers is 37 homers. And I try to be really conscious of OBP elsewhere, so I can afford a bit of a ding there for those dingers.
7. (118) Shin-Soo Choo (Tex - LF,RF)
Pretty sure he was the highest OBP OF left at this point, and there didn’t seem to be anyone likely to hit enough HRs to justify the OBP hit.
8. (121) Ben Zobrist (Oak - 2B,SS,LF,CF,RF)
I’m so old that all these guys still seem young to me. Might have been better with a younger option (especially since I got Utley also) but I was definitely not going to wait another 30 picks to fill a MI slot.
9. (152) Darren O’Day (Bal - RP)
I had several position players queued ahead of O’Day, who was in there as a “sometime in a few rounds” possibility. My daughter asked for help with her homework and in the time it took for 30 rounds to pass I sort of lost track of progress, came back with only seconds to go, and he was at the top of the queue, the other guys having been taken. These things happen. Wish it hadn’t in the first ten rounds, but what are you going to do . . . .
10. (155) Chase Utley (Phi - 2B)
Uh, well, I didn’t like any of the outfielders left at this spot, and I needed another MI at whichever position I didn’t stick Zobrist.
**
11. (186) Michael Pineda (NYY - SP)**
Felt like time to get someone as a #2 starter; great upside potential, huge risk of injury, but as I always forget during the draft, it’s not that hard to pick up serviceable starters during the season.
**
12. (189) Michael Cuddyer (NYM - 1B,RF)**
The next several players drafted were starters, the next position player was Marlon Byrd (who I rode quite successfully last year, but don’t buy that he’ll repeat that, and who’s even older than Cuddyer). If he can stay healthy, he’s at least not likely to hurt the rate stats much,
**
13. (220) Wade Davis (KC - RP)**
The rankings I used were tailored to our format, where holds matter. By this point in the draft, he was ranked so much more valuable than anyone else left out there that if I didn’t pick him I’d have to ask why I bothered with ranking players in the first place. Having taken O’Day a few rounds before, I probably should have let him pass, but I also thought I’d be OK waiting on the next few guys in my queue. 1.00 or lower in both ERA and WHIP, 109 Ks in 72 innings, 33 holds, 9 wins – if I’d taken him instead of O’Day I probably wouldn’t have any regrets at all.
14. (223) Brandon Crawford (SF - SS)
He’s a backup at short who will get playing time, isn’t ancient, and had an OPS above .700 last year. In this league, this late, you get that while you can.
**
15. (254) Ángel Pagán (SF - CF)**
Realized I wasn’t getting much in the way of steals, needed somebody besides Zobrist eligible at CF if I didn’t want Crawford to be a fixture at short. Big question mark about the back, especially since he’s already had issues this spring, but the other option would have been Drew Stubbs, who seems likely to be a platoon guy (but in Colorado). Doing it again I might go with Stubbs, but it’s not like there’s a huge difference now. Maybe Dalton Pompey is all that, but that definitely seemed like a bigger risk than Pagan
**
16. (257) Danny Duffy (KC - SP,RP)**
Nobody I loved ranked very high at this point, Duffy could have upside, and is eligible as an RP as well, which could be useful.
**
17. (288) Seth Smith (Sea - LF,RF)**
Has hit 10-15 HR/yr in platoon roles before, decent OBP (and last year was the second best of his career – doesn’t seem to be falling off yet, even if he is 32). Highest value position player left in my rankings by then.
18. (291) Kyle Hendricks (ChC - SP)
All about the upside. Had a 1.08 WHIP, which is almost exactly what he had the last couple of years in AA & AAA, while going 43-9 with an ERA right around 3. He also won 7 in 13 starts with the Cubs. Low K rate is the big red flag. Didn’t like De Aza, Neshek, or Omar Infante (next 3 picks) any better – Chris Tillman got some consideration, but decided to go with the potential for bigger payoff.
19. (322) Scott Van Slyke (LAD - 1B,LF,CF,RF)
A guy with an OPS of .910 last year, .386 OBP, who’s eligible at all three OF positions plus first, but who won’t be a starter unless he gets traded someplace. If he plays on the days I stick him in the lineup in place of another OF with an off day, he’s not likely to hurt my rate stats. And if he ends up in the AL . . . .
**
20. (325) Chris Iannetta (LAA - C)**
Need somebody beside Lucroy eligible at C; among guys available in the 20th round in this league, not many have a career .347 OBP and were at .373 last season.
**
21. (356) Chris Johnson (Atl - 3B)**
He’s eligible at 3B, and will likely start (mostly) for ATL. Not gonna get a lot more than that this late, and if he regains any of his 2013 form, so much the better
**
22. (359) Jonathan Broxton (Mil - RP)**
Reasonable numbers last year, and could easily end up as the closer again either in MIL or elsewhere.
23. (390) Tanner Scheppers (Tex - SP)
Got a lot of value of him in a short time in 2013. If he’s back to being healthy . . . hey, it’s the 23rd round, and the 390th pick of the draft.
**
24. (393) Yangervis Solarte (SD - 2B,3B)**
Eligible at 2 IF positions and with a career OPS above .330 – only has potential if someone else falls off the table in SD. Maybe if I’d thought about it more I’d have grabbed Brock Holt.
This is the third year I’ve used Art McGee’s valuation system with the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster projections. Since our league doesn’t use standard categories and also because I disagree with some of the methodologies (for instance, McGee assumes that only the top X-number of hitters will be taken, so those are the ones you have to evaluate, not taking into player positions into consideration). So I’ve tweaked the formulas over the years, and I think I might have finally gotten it right. The problem is that I look at the totals, rather than individual stats, so I never know whether I’ve punted a category or not. Except in a few cases, I went with the highest ranked player at the time in the position I was targeting. The exceptions were pretty much either going with a homer pick or having been burned by someone before. At the end of the day, I’ve got a squad full of guys who are going to get plenty of AB (even if platooned) and IP, so at least that’ll help my counting stats.
(2) Andrew McCutchen (Pit - CF)
A no-brainer second pick.
(33) David Price (Det - SP)
Would have been Chris Sale if he hadn’t been scooped with the previous pick, but Price is still good. I hated taking a pitcher at this stage of the game, though.
(36) Todd Frazier (Cin - 1B,3B)
3B is a tough position these days, and I was concerned that there wouldn’t be any decent ones left by the time my next one came around 31 picks later. Per my rankings, he was the second-best 3B out there after Donaldson, so I’m pretty pleased with him.
(67) Greg Holland (KC - RP)
He was an absolute stud for me in two leagues last year. By far my favorite closer. Even though my point system wouldn’t have picked any reliever this early (or any pitcher, for that matter), the fact is that pitchers must be picked.
(70) Jason Kipnis (Cle - 2B)
2B is another tough position, and Kipnis was my fourth-ranked 2B. Actually, I had Dozier (who was picked next) rated better, but I went with the homer pick.
(101) Yan Gomes (Cle - C)
Time for a catcher, and Gomes was the best available. As well as another homer pick.
(104) J.D. Martínez (Det - LF,RF)
Actually, I know nothing about this guy, but Baseball Forecaster seems to like him. I needed a guy in the outfield, and he was the highest-rated on the list at this point. His OBP won’t measure up to last year’s, but it’ll still be acceptable, and the SLG and homers will make up for it.
(135) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY - SP)
(138) Adam LaRoche (CWS - 1B)
The Forecaster calls him “the ‘ugly old vet’ you can win with.” He’ll provide good value, especially if I remember to sit him against southpaws.
(169) Santiago Casilla (SF - RP)
I like to have two closers. That’s all.
(172) Erick Aybar (LAA - SS)
At this point, I decided to go with a shortstop. I had Aybar and Escobar ranked almost identically. Ultimately, I decided I had enough speed (and, indeed, I got even more later), and decided to go with the guy who doesn’t have a significant rightie-leftie split.
(203) Oswaldo Arcia (Min - RF)
The last individual position I needed to fill was either LF or RF (depending where Martinez goes). And I went with a guy with a nice big right/left split. He won’t be much use in the OBP area, either, but I like the power.
(206) Joe Smith (LAA - RP)
Rock solid setup guy who’ll get holds and maybe some vulture saves and wins.
(237) Desmond Jennings (TB - CF)
Meh. I don’t even know why I wanted this guy. I don’t think I ever even put him in my queue, I just took him. I guess he’ll be one of the better OBP guys on my squad, but he stopped running last year, and who knows whether he’ll start again?
(240) Carl Crawford (LAD - LF)
Another guy I don’t know why. I guess he was the best guy left on the board at the time. If he can stay healthy, he can contribute, but how likely is that, really?
(271) Sergio Romo (SF - RP)
Setup guy. I like him.
(274) Derek Norris (SD - C)
Backup catcher. If he can come close to what he did first half last year, it’s a great pick, but, since the rule for backup catchers is “do no harm,” he will at least fill that bill.
(305) Bud Norris (Bal - SP)
(308) Matt Garza (Mil - SP)
I needed more SPs. Yuck.
(339) Mike Moustakas (KC - 3B)
Worst OBP on the squad. But he’s young – maybe he’ll put it together.
(342) Emilio Bonifacio (CWS - 2B,CF,RF)
Some wheels, and positional flexibility. He’ll mostly be a backup.
(373) Jorge De La Rosa (Col - SP)
Another SP. There. Done with pitchers.
(376) Kevin Kiermaier (TB - CF,RF)
This kid intrigues me. MLB depth charts show him starting, though I know the Powers That Be in Tampa haven’t confirmed this, they just said he’ll be in CF exclusively. HUGE L/R split. But, as a backup, he’s interesting. Worth the 376th pick, anyway.
(407) Mitch Moreland (Tex - 1B)
I suspect he’ll be much better than he was last year. Maybe not in OBP, but I think he’ll regain some of the power. And, if he’s not, what did I lose? Neil Ramirez?
Here ismy draft. I failed to achieve a threepeat last year, but feel good about a bounce back campaign. Trout has this habit of making people look smart. The other thing I like on my squad is the versatility. I have 5 hitters with multiple position eligibility, all in different combos, which should help in setting daily lineups and dealing with injuries.
Frosted_Lightning
1. (12) José Altuve (Hou - 2B)
Once I realized where I was picking, I was hoping to grab Tulo but I also had my eye on Encarnacion. When it got to me and I looked around I decided to go with Altuve. I don’t expect him to duplicate last year’s breakout numbers but the slightly improved offense around him should help to deflect any backsliding. Additionally, he has been having a pretty good looking spring so far which helps me feel confident. Also, it is very nice to have speed on a roster where I almost entirely ignored SB’s.
2. (23) Michael Brantley (Cle - LF,CF)
A lot of people seem nervous about Brantley but I think he is going to going to have a great year. Maybe not quite as monster as last season but I really like his OPS potential at this point in the draft.
3. (46) Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
Pujols is getting up there now but he is still a dangerous offensive weapon. I’m not expecting gaudy numbers or anything but he should still contribute a lot of power to my lineup.
4. (57) Matt Harvey (NYM - SP)
Harvey has the potential to be a dominant part of my Mets rotation but he is a big risk coming off of TJ surgery. Being a lifelong Mets fan, there was no way I planned on letting this round go with Harvey still on the board.
5. (80) Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF)
After my early pitching pick I knew I was going with an outfielder here. In past seasons I have seriously dropped the ball when it comes to putting power in my lineup. Before my pick came up I was looking Calhoun vs Blackmon (who actually ended up going next) and when it came around to me I decided to go with Calhoun.
6. (91) David Wright (NYM - 3B)
Wright looks back in form after some injury issues last season. I needed some help on the infield and its nice to be able to fill this need with one of my all time favorites.
7. (114) Evan Gattis (Hou - C)
I was really happy about this pick. Gattis has some serious power and even if he doesn’t repeat his numbers from last season, I don’t see him dropping off much. The fact that he is has the DH job should help to generate a lot of offense so I will be happy if he keeps his OPS around or above 800. That’s not the heaviest of expectations but at this point in the draft that is a very good number.
8. (125) Garrett Richards (LAA - SP)
He is coming off of an injury but by all accounts he should be good to go in the next few weeks. My draft plan this year did not include going with two starters this early but the Harvey pick was unexpected and threw me off a little bit. In my head, I consider Harvey-Richards to be my top guy as kind of an offset for the injury risk I have with both of them.
9. (148) Doug Fister (Was - SP)
Just looking at the fact that I went SP-SP in rounds 4 and 8 makes this pick look crazy on the surface. When you factor in the two pitchers that I selected, however, this pick makes more sense. I did not think Fister would be available when it came back around to me so I was mostly looking at reinforcing my infield. With Fister available here, however, it was a no-brainer. I needed a guy with plenty of upside to balance out the risk I took on my first two pitchers.
10. (159) Jhonny Peralta (StL - SS)
Nothing to get too excited about here but between Peralta and Aybar (the other SS option available that I was considering), I like Peralta better. Is he going to hit 20 HRs again this year? Doubtful, but he will still have a solid OPS and he always has the potential to knock a few extra out there to get close to or above 20 HRs. Solid pick for this slot.
11. (182) Francisco Rodríguez (Mil - RP)
I was feeling pretty lukewarm on the remaining OFs so I decided to wait a bit and go with K-Rod here. He will get saves even if he does not dominate as much as he used to. I have punted on saves in this league before and the results were pretty rough.
12. (193) Marlon Byrd (Cin - RF)
13. (216) Khris Davis (Mil - LF)
I needed to even out my Outfield and it looked like this was going to be one of my last chances to get something worthwhile unless someone happened to fall to me later on.
14. (227) Taijuan Walker (Sea - SP)
15. (250) LaTroy Hawkins (Col - RP)
This is where the picks start getting fun. Walkeris a young guy without much experience but I like his potential a lot. I love this type of pick because expectations are low but he may end up with a breakout year.
To be completely honest, I probably should have used my Hawkins pick on another infielder but I decided why not take a chance on the old man. He will likely be gone by the end of the month but you never know.
16. (261) Michael Morse (Mia - 1B,LF)
I am not 100% positive that he will end up batting cleanup when the season starts but the fact that he is the most likely candidate makes me pretty excited about this pick. This pick may be a super sneaky power pick but we will see how it plays out.
17. (284) Colby Rasmus (Hou - CF)
I am not as down on Rasmus as most people seem to be but this isn’t that special of a pick.
18. (295) Chris Tillman (Bal - SP)
19. (318) Jason Castro (Hou - C)
20. (329) Jordy Mercer (Pit - SS)
21. (352) Tim Hudson (SF - SP)
These picks were all pretty solid secondary options for filling out my roster.
22. (363) Jeurys Familia (NYM - RP)
23. (386) Jonathan Schoop (Bal - 2B,3B)
24. (397) Tyler Flowers (CWS - C)