I have the cheapest highest cost player in the league, whee.
Thanks for the list. That format makes it more readable/interesting.
You guys are probably all reviewed-out, but if Omni and Jules want to do similar reviews like they did for the all-pro league I for one really like reading them.
I’m never too tired to pretend like what I have to say is insightful and interesting! I probably won’t spend the time on them as I did in the All-Pro league, but I’ll try to do something quick and dirty. I tend not to be able to keep that up though, we’ll see. I’ll start with my team in a few minutes.
Assuming other people had the long-form draft reviews covered, I was going to make up a quick list of bargains and rip-offs, but there’s really no good way to do that without knowing every player’s cost relative to the other players at his position. So I copied and pasted such a list together. Most likely I’ll come back later and make my list, comparing the amounts spent to Average Draft Position on Yahoo or some other objective measure. Until then, those who are doing the draft reviews should find this format helpful. Enjoy.
QB
$45 Tom Brady, NE (4)
$40 Drew Brees, NO (10)
$32 Aaron Rodgers, GB (35)
$30 Peyton Manning, Ind (16)
$26 Philip Rivers, SD (54)
$22 Kurt Warner, Ari (23)
$19 Tony Romo, Dal (43)
$15 Matt Ryan, Atl (75)
$15 Donovan McNabb, Phi (70)
$14 Matt Schaub, Hou (82)
$10 Matt Cassel, KC (79)
$10 Jay Cutler, Chi (80)
$9 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit (62)
$8 Carson Palmer, Cin (74)
$7 Matt Hasselbeck, Sea (122)
$6 Eli Manning, NYG (83)
$3 Jake Delhomme, Car (154)
$3 Kyle Orton, Den (97)
$3 Brett Favre, Min (86)
$3 David Garrard, Jac (89)
$2 Shaun Hill, SF (158)
$2 Jason Campbell, Was (144)
$2 Joe Flacco, Bal (149)
$1 Chad Pennington, Mia (143)
$1 Trent Edwards, Buf (118)
RB
$63 Adrian Peterson, Min (1)
$60 Michael Turner, Atl (3)
$60 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (6)
$56 Matt Forte, Chi (7)
$50 Steven Jackson, StL (5)
$50 DeAngelo Williams, Car (18)
$46 Chris Johnson, Ten (17)
$44 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (11)
$43 Frank Gore, SF (29)
$41 Brandon Jacobs, NYG (13)
$41 Steve Slaton, Hou (42)
$33 Brian Westbrook, Phi (33)
$29 Marion Barber, Dal (32)
$29 Kevin Smith, Det (40)
$27 Darren McFadden, Oak (72)
$27 Clinton Portis, Was (26)
$27 Pierre Thomas, NO (68)
$26 Ryan Grant, GB (64)
$24 Ronnie Brown, Mia (63)
$19 Thomas Jones, NYJ (25)
$18 Marshawn Lynch*, Buf (78)
$18 Ray Rice, Bal (101)
$17 Derrick Ward, TB (90)
$17 Larry Johnson, KC (71)
$16 Joseph Addai, Ind (60)
$15 LenDale White, Ten (81)
$15 Knowshon Moreno, Den (84)
$13 Willie Parker, Pit (46)
$12 Jonathan Stewart, Car (99)
$11 Chris Wells, Ari (114)
$10 Cedric Benson, Cin (113)
$10 Reggie Bush, NO (61)
$9 Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (107)
$9 Darren Sproles, SD (28)
$8 Fred Taylor, NE (73)
$8 Jamal Lewis, Cle (95)
$7 LeSean McCoy, Phi (52)
$7 Rashard Mendenhall, Pit (141)
$7 Donald Brown, Ind (126)
$6 Felix Jones, Dal (91)
$6 Earnest Graham, TB (134)
$6 Fred Jackson, Buf (137)
$5 Chester Taylor, Min (85)
$5 Chris Henry, Cin (152)
$4 Jerious Norwood, Atl (161)
$4 Leon Washington, NYJ (133)
$3 Julius Jones, Sea (151)
$3 Michael Bush, Oak (104)
$3 Le’Ron McClain, Bal (136)
$3 Tim Hightower, Ari (130)
$2 Willis McGahee, Bal (148)
$1 Cadillac Williams, TB (172)
$1 Brian Leonard, Cin (191)
$1 Ladell Betts, Was (175)
$1 Justin Fargas, Oak (181)
$1 Jerome Harrison, Cle (160)
$1 Tashard Choice, Dal (128)
$1 Mewelde Moore, Pit (150)
$1 Glen Coffee, SF (182)
$1 Sammy Morris, NE (157)
$1 Ricky Williams, Mia (121)
WR
$44 Andre Johnson, Hou (9)
$43 Randy Moss, NE (8)
$41 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari (15)
$38 Calvin Johnson, Det (27)
$33 Reggie Wayne, Ind (20)
$29 Greg Jennings, GB (24)
$29 Steve Smith, Car (22)
$28 Roddy White, Atl (21)
$27 Marques Colston, NO (37)
$26 Anquan Boldin, Ari (30)
$22 Dwayne Bowe, KC (39)
$22 Wes Welker, NE (51)
$20 Chad Ochocinco, Cin (44)
$20 Vincent Jackson, SD (69)
$20 Brandon Marshall*, Den (41)
$18 Terrell Owens, Buf (34)
$18 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea (45)
$18 Braylon Edwards, Cle (53)
$16 Roy E. Williams, Dal (66)
$14 Eddie Royal, Den (59)
$14 DeSean Jackson, Phi (87)
$14 Anthony Gonzalez, Ind (92)
$12 Lee Evans, Buf (47)
$12 Bernard Berrian, Min (65)
$11 Santonio Holmes, Pit (102)
$10 Steve Smith, NYG (2)
$10 Antonio Bryant, TB (67)
$10 Hines Ward, Pit (50)
$10 Donald Driver, GB (103)
$9 Santana Moss, Was (55)
$9 Kevin Walter, Hou (105)
$8 Lance Moore, NO (94)
$8 Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (111)
$7 Devin Hester, Chi (119)
$6 Torry Holt, Jac (96)
$6 Derrick Mason, Bal (120)
$5 Steve Breaston, Ari (123)
$5 Laveranues Coles, Cin (115)
$4 Domenik Hixon, NYG (109)
$4 Ted Ginn Jr., Mia (131)
$4 Donnie Avery, StL (108)
$3 Hakeem Nicks, NYG (132)
$3 Josh Morgan, SF (110)
$2 Devery Henderson, NO (140)
$2 Davone Bess, Mia (155)
$2 Deion Branch, Sea (178)
$2 Kevin Curtis, Phi (166)
$2 David Clowney, NYJ (164)
$2 Patrick Crayton, Dal (145)
$1 Robert Meachem, NO (127)
$1 Bobby Engram, KC (156)
$1 Percy Harvin, Min (165)
$1 Chris Chambers, SD (173)
$1 Justin Gage, Ten (187)
$1 Joey Galloway, NE (192)
$1 Isaac Bruce, SF (183)
$1 Michael Jenkins, Atl (186)
$1 Nate Burleson, Sea (189)
$1 Mark Clayton, Bal (147)
$1 Nate Washington, Ten (167)
$1 Miles Austin, Dal (168)
$1 Muhsin Muhammad, Car (180)
TE
$15 Tony Gonzalez, Atl (49)
$15 Antonio Gates, SD (36)
$15 Jason Witten, Dal (58)
$13 Dallas Clark, Ind (57)
$10 Greg Olsen, Chi (12)
$9 Owen Daniels, Hou (93)
$8 Chris Cooley, Was (56)
$5 Kellen Winslow, TB (77)
$4 Jeremy Shockey, NO (38)
$3 Zach Miller, Oak (98)
$2 John Carlson, Sea (116)
$1 Kevin Boss, NYG (184)
$1 Tony Scheffler, Den (190)
$1 Brent Celek, Phi (159)
$1 Dustin Keller, NYJ (174)
$1 Visanthe Shiancoe, Min (153)
$1 Jermichael Finley, GB (100)
DEF
$7 Giants D/ST, NYG (14)
$7 Bears D/ST, Chi (163)
$6 Steelers D/ST, Pit (48)
$3 Ravens D/ST, Bal (88)
$3 Redskins D/ST, Was (142)
$3 Chargers D/ST, SD (112)
$2 Titans D/ST, Ten (117)
$2 Vikings D/ST, Min (135)
$2 Eagles D/ST, Phi (124)
$2 Packers D/ST, GB (76)
$1 Patriots D/ST, NE (177)
$1 Buccaneers D/ST, TB (176)
$1 Panthers D/ST, Car (185)
$1 Jets D/ST, NYJ (162)
$1 Dolphins D/ST, Mia (146)
K
$2 Robbie Gould, Chi (19)
$2 Rob Bironas, Ten (106)
$2 Nate Kaeding, SD (31)
$2 Stephen Gostkowski, NE (129)
$1 Nick Folk, Dal (171)
$1 Jason Elam, Atl (179)
$1 Neil Rackers, Ari (125)
$1 David Akers, Phi (170)
$1 Ryan Longwell, Min (138)
$1 Adam Vinatieri*, Ind (169)
$1 Mason Crosby, GB (139)
$1 John Kasay, Car (188)
**Quentin’s JAMmers **(Jules Andre)
Draft review! Yay!
After 2 seasons of just missing the draft to an emergency and a problem with my clock not having the correct time zone, I finally made it to an auction draft. This was my first live auction draft. I had done a few mocks online over this preseason and a few last season, but I had no real experience.
Right up to the start of the draft, I was developing my list of targets. I think I would have had a pretty ridiculous team had I been able to get the guys I wanted. I even added 15% to each of their values to simulate a bidding war, so I knew I could afford them all too. I felt very confident. I spent time preparing for bye week replacements for my big guys, as well as replacements at every position should I miss my top guy.
I thought knowing exactly who I wanted would be an advantage, I could wait for people to spend their dough and only come in on the guys I knew I wanted. I figured since I knew who I wanted and could control my own team, I wouldn’t have a problem, especially since I planned to overpay for everyone anyway. What I didn’t plan on was people being really, really interested in the same guys. I only had a marginal plan for what would happen if I missed out on my top guys this season. As the draft went along, I was the last owner with $200, and once I started getting into the game, the main talents in the league were gone. Essentially, were this a standard draft league, I didn’t get a first round pick. I think my team is severely lacking in elite talent for it.
Here’s a positional breakdown. Players in bold are my preseason starters. The dollar amount immediately next to the player is what I paid for them, the number in parenthesis is the assigned ESPN value.
QB - Philip Rivers $26 ($17) Joe Flacco $2 ($1)
($27 total, 13.5% of cap)
Rivers was the guy I wanted. I think Brady will be the top QB in the league, and my backup plan was to try to pick up Brady for under $40 (his assigned price was $36). For a moment it looked as if he might have gone for about $35, so I jumped in. I bowed out after the bidding hit $40, which was my ceiling for him, and went to my main plan. I got Brady’s production minus maybe 25-40 total points for $19 less. Rivers was the second guy I wrote down on my wanted list because he represented the highest jump in projected fantasy points to assigned value (he’s my fourth ranked QB on my cheat sheet). I initially figured on $20 for him, but knowing how important he was to my team, I budgeted myself $25 for him. When I missed out on so many of my top fantasy scorers by the time Rivers came up for auction, I would have paid $40 for him, budget be damned.
I chose Flacco for his upside; he could sneak into the top 10 if he continues to grow and his younger WRs mature around him. It’s a long shot, and I don’t actually trust him, but he also has a fantastic matchup when Rivers goes on bye. I could have taken a better overall QB, but considering I planned on starting him once, $1-2 is the right price for this spot. He was the guy I wrote down pre-draft.
Overall, I have a top 5 stud at a very important position, and a serviceable backup. Neither represent too much of a risk, and I think this position is the strength of my team.
**Grade: B+
RB - Steve Slaton $41 **($36), **Kevin Smith $29 **($24), Ray Rice $18 ($12), Beanie Wells $11 ($9), Donald Brown $7 ($7)
($106 total, 53% of total cap)
Things got messy here. Slaton was my #1 guy from the very beginning, he was the first name I wrote down. It appears that I overpaid for him but I budgeted $45 and am happy to get him at that price. He represents the highest overall positive disparity between the ESPN value and my projected final score, I think he’s going to have an incredible season. I have him projected 6th overall among RBs, but getting into the top 5 is possible too. I hope he has the ability to get 100+ yards and 2-3 TDs in a single game that I require out of my top fantasy back (unlike say, a Matt Forte who will grind out his 75 yards and sub-4.0 YPC on his way to an overall great fantasy season). I’m pleased with him and his price. Several second tier RBs went for a higher price, so this is a great value.
My original plan was to also draft Chris Johnson, and I even budgeted $51 for him (he eventually went for $46). I thought CJ and Slaton would be as good a duo as anyone could have. About thirty minutes before the draft, I decided to take Westbrook instead, since his projected final score would is similar to CJ and at a $20 discount. I gave myself $30 for Westbrook, and would have been really happy with them as my top 2. He eventually went for $33, and he represents a very important lesson I learned during the beginning of this draft.
If you really like a guy, win him. Even if it’s four, or five, or ten dollars more than he’s listed for. This is especially critical when he’s one of your top 3 guys. There’s no guarantee you’ll even be able to replace him later on, and you’ll find you’re running out of options as the draft moves along. As you go you can adjust your depth to take a cheaper alternative, like drafting a $1 TE instead of an $8 one. I really screwed up not overpaying heavily for my guys, as my roster was planned to the tiniest detail. As the guys I needed started getting higher and higher above their listed values, I started balking at a difference of a single dollar. That dollar means nothing at the end of the draft, especially if you end the draft with almost $10, like I did. I probably missed all of “my guys” by a combined difference of less than what I ended the draft with. Inexcusable, and I’ll never make the mistake again.
Back to the show. I don’t really like Kevin Smith, I have no real idea what to expect for him. I got him for a dollar less than I budgeted for my #2, and he’s a consensus 2nd RB, so I’m not too disappointed. I project almost exactly 1300 combined yards and 9 combined TDs, which is pretty much what he did last season. His offense should be better, especially via the pass, which should open up things for him underneath. Pettigrew is basically another lineman, which will make his outside runs even more successful. But… he’s still on Detroit. How optimistic can you really get? He was a panic pick, really. I lost out on all my #2 options, and suddenly Smith was the last guy in that tier and I knew I had to win him. I overpaid, but I had no choice.
I really wanted McFadden as a 3. He’s the perfect fit for a rotation RB. He was valued at $17 going in, and I stopped bidding when it hit $27 (this will be a theme, the guys I want suddenly becoming hot properties). The difference was likely another 2-4 dollars for me to win him, but I think I did the right thing passing, even if I like him a ton this season. That’s RB2 money, and I didn’t have it for a RB3. I immediately readjusted my strategy to instead draft 4 young, explosive, high-upside RBs and play the lottery with them. I targeted Moreno, Rice, Wells, and Brown, 4 of the 5 best young upside RBs. By the time they came up for auction, I think I had more money left than anyone else, and I wasn’t going to lose them. I ended up only passing on Moreno when his price went $3 over his listed value, knowing that I would get Rice, Wells, AND Brown later (my main competition for them having just taken Moreno, and most teams having gotten their RBs already). I wouldn’t have a spot for 4 RBs anyway. In hindsight, I should have anticipated Rice would draw a bidding war and tried harder for Moreno. Moreno at $15 is a lot better than Rice at $18. I fear I’ll be proven to have made a mistake there. But when Rice came up, I was desperate for a viable #3 that actually had a job day one.
I have my stud, I have a good #2 (hopefully…), and out of the three guys I took for my bench, all are legit upside guys with first round potential week 1. I need only one of them to emerge for my RB group to be extremely solid. If none of them manage to emerge early, they’ll all carry enough potential that their value will stay relatively even and I’ll be able to move one or two for depth elsewhere, should I need it. I missed a lot of guys I wanted, and after Slaton my lineup isn’t ideal. But I have a lot of upside, and I’m pretty comfortable with this unit. If one of my three youngins beats out Smith without Smith falling apart, I’ve done really well for myself here.
**Grade: B
WR - Braylon Edwards $18 **($17), **DeSean Jackson $14 **($11), **Anthony Gonzalez $14 **($8), Ted Ginn Jr. $4 ($3), Patrick Crayton $2 ($2)
(Total: $52, 26% of cap)
This is where everything went wrong. Way, way wrong. When the draft started I expected to get three of the upside 10-15 dollar guys and two low 20s guys with potential to overshoot their values. I wanted depth with upside, not high dollar stars. I missed on every single one but Jackson, who I had to overpay for and nearly lost anyway. I guess I’m a savant when it comes to predicting breakout WRs, because every guy I targeted was suddenly the most popular guy in the room. I intentionally passed on the top WRs, hoping people would spend a bunch of money early and leave my guys to me at the value I wanted. I guessed way, way wrong. This entire sequence drove me insane, and I almost lost my mind during it.
Targets (budget / assigned value / final auction price):
Boldin (22 / 21 / 26)
Colston (22 / 19 / 27)
OchoCinco (13 / 13 / 20)
Vincent Jackson (13 / 13 / 20)
Wes Welker (18 / 18 / 22)
Eddie Royal (10 / 9 / 14)
It isn’t even like I missed these guys. I was bidding every single one of them above their listed price. It just randomly happens that I wanted exactly who everyone else had to fucking have! Bizarre. By the time Edwards came up, I was considering passing on him to slit my wrists, but there wasn’t a single guy left who could even conceivably get 1200 yards and 10 TDs. I would have paid $30 for him, and I don’t even like him this season! In fact, he was one of the reasons my season went so poorly in another league last year; he was one of the biggest busts I can ever remember who didn’t get hurt. Unfortunately, I just don’t think you can win if you are missing a top WR with the chance to get 3 TDs in a game.
Jackson was my planned #3, which would have been excellent for him. As a #2, I’m wary. He has all the upside, and his preseason has been incredible. But Philly WRs never turn out right, they never live up to their potential (aside from T.O., once, and even he counts considering how it ended). Gonzalez was a guy I targeted after I missed out on Colston and Boldin, when I realized I wasn’t going to have a #1 WR and would have to make up for it with five #2s. He’s a terrific #3, and if the consensus projection for him comes close, he’ll earn my #2 spot easily. I would have been even more thrilled had he been the #4 I planned on. I wasn’t interested in Ginn, nor in Crayton, but there was literally nothing left. Ginn has potential, he’s a common break out candidate this season, but I don’t buy it. Crayton will get lots of time, but Miles Austin probably takes his job midseason. I budgeted $80 for this position and ended up spending just over half that. God damnit.
I’m in a lot of trouble here, and this resembles all of my teams prior to '08 where I had one possibly decent guy and I had to scrounge the waiver wire for scraps all season long. I haven’t checked all the rosters, but I probably have the worst WR group in the league. When I finish 4-10, it’ll be because of this position, and there’s probably not a damn thing I can do about it. The only thing keeping me from a failing grade is that I did adjust my strategy and get a couple of the guys I want. And I’m not starting a Donnie Avery or Devin Hester type on day one. And, in a perfect world, Braylon returns to '07, Jackson steps into 1200 yards and 6 TDs (very doable), and Gonzo plays like Harrison did circa 2005, in which case I’m stacked. About a 1% chance there, optimistically.
**Grade: D
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe $1 **($1)
(Total: $1, 0.5% of cap)
Whatever, he doesn’t excite me. People think that Favre throws to TEs, but historically, he never has. Especially not in the red zone It’s a complete myth. Yeah, he’s a good receiving TE, but Favre won’t help that. I don’t project him to end out well. I should have adjusted my strategy here and picked up a top guy with the money I had left after losing out on my WRs. It was probably too late by then. At least there are good replacements on the wire if Shaincoe trips over his cock and breaks his nose. And it isn’t like I’m starting Jeremy Shockey or Heath Miller, I at least have a top 10 guy.
Grade: C-
**
K - David Akers $1 **($1)
(Total: $1, 0.5% of cap)
Perfectly acceptable, I guess. I almost took Folk, but I remembered he was hurt and I didn’t know how healthy he was. Doesn’t make a difference, really. I prefer guys who kick in domes, though.
Grade: B-
Def - Washington $3 ($3), New York Jets $1 ($1)
(Total: $4, 2% of cap)
I budgeted $2 for this position, but it doesn’t matter. I really like the Jets this season, but if you take them you have to take a second defense to swap in when they play the Patriots twice. If you’ve seen a Jets preseason game this season, you’ve seen an aggressive defense that applies pressure on the QB on every single down, blitzing or not. They’ll up their turnovers by a lot, and should be much better in points too. Washington faces a really easy opening four games where they should dominate. After Pace comes back from suspension on gave five, I figure I’ll be starting the Jets from then on, swapping only for NE games. I actually really like what I have here, and my prediction is that my overall contribution from defenses this season will be really high compared to the rest of the league.
The big downside here is that, in taking a second defense, I lost the opportunity to draft another WR, which really hurts my already shallow depth. When I decided to draft the second defense, there wasn’t anyone left I felt comfortable with. I think I’ll earn more points from the Jets this season than anyone I would have bought that late.
Grade: B+
**Overall -
**This isn’t a winning team. Maybe, with a lot of work and some timely trades/waiver claims, I can manage this into a playoff team. If anyone can, it’s me, I’m a literal genius at making three trades and coming out with a brand new roster that greatly improves upon what I had. I’m as aggressive as they come and I love to trade, often. This team needs work, and I guarantee nobody puts in more time with these things than I do (that’s not exactly a good thing). So expect a lot of trade offers this season from me, and I apologize in advance for the spam.
I’m solid and set at QB. RB is good, if unspectacular and lacking of burst upside. My depth there is impressive and should be a big advantage. If two of those 3 break out, my overall team will be a lot stronger. WR is a big problem. My team will go as my fortunes go with Braylon, DeSean and Gonzo. But it isn’t impossible for Braylon to be a legitimate top 5 guy, he’s done it before. DeSean had a good rookie season and looks amazing this preseason. 1000 and 6 is very likely-- 1200 and 6 is possible (which would put him around Boldin and Welker, so I’d be all right). Gonzo is in as good a situation as you could possibly want. I probably have the worst group in the league on paper, but I could very easily end up with 3 of the top 20. If I do, my team will contend. It’s all up to those guys.
Grade: C-
Self review:
I did what I’ve done every year, spend the least on the top picks to try to control the middle rounds. Every year I tell myself “be more aggressive on a top player, make that one big purchase” and every year once the actual values start hitting that $45+ range I decide to avoid it.
I’ve been to the playoffs in both years so it’s hard to say the strategy is bad. But I usually end up saving too much, and finishing out the draft with money left over - and that’s money wasted.
I spent the least of anyone on my highest cost player, and the least of anyone on their 2 highest player. This did allow me at the end to not have to draft one dollar players - I had the pick of who I wanted at the end of my roster. But given the quality of the some of the $1 players remaining, I’m not so sure that’s much of an advantage.
But I missed an opportunity to control the middle rounds more than I had, and snag more $10-25 players than I did. Overall, I did not maximize the benefits of my strategy, and finished the draft with more money than I should’ve.
QBs, $35 total, 17.5% of cap:
$32 Aaron Rodgers, GB (35)
$3 David Garrard, Jac (89)
Solid. I’m really high on Rodgers this year - to put up those numbers on a cold weather team in your first year of starting is very impressive, and this preseason he’s flirted with a perfect QB rating. I think his production may tail off a bit from last year, because his defense will be significantly improved and probably too the running game, so there simply won’t be as much need to throw. Considering Drew Brees went for $40, I probably overpaid for him. I’d been hoping to snatch him up around $27, but there was a lot of interest, and by this time I’d saved so much money that I decided I could throw the extra few bucks around to get the QB I targetted.
Garrard is consistently underrated in fantasy and should be a rock solid backup.
RBs, $82, 41% of cap.
$27 Pierre Thomas, NO (68)
$24 Ronnie Brown, Mia (63)
$15 Knowshon Moreno, Den (84)
$9 Darren Sproles, SD (28)
$6 Felix Jones, Dal (91)
$1 Ricky Williams, Mia (121)
I know the reviews aren’t going to treat my RBs favorably. I’m higher on Brown ($24) and Thomas than most this year. I think Brown is a top 5 talent RB in the league, and this is the first time in a while he’s been healthy. There’s a good chance that it won’t stay that way, but I think he has as much chance of any RB to put up a 40 point game. If he stays healthy, I’m not too worried about the time share - he’s so much better than the other backs on the team that they should give it to him more.
Pierre Thomas ($27) is a guy that may blow up in my face because he’s a big part of both my all-pro and auction teams. I’m not too concerned about Reggie Bush. He’ll get some carries, but there’s plenty of offense to go around, and he’s not that good and they won’t force feed him the ball. I’m actually a little more concerned about the third back (Mike Smith?) who has looked good in preseason and may start a 3 way carry split.
Still, Thomas was very good in the second half last year. Me not having confidence in him and benching him for Bush (I actually came in and tried to switch Thomas onto my roster and missed the lockout by like 15 seconds) cost me in the playoffs last year. He has produced consistently when given the opportunity, and is in a top 3 offense. I may have reached for him (in both leagues) but here’s hoping he blows up and makes me look like a genius.
Knowshon Moreno ($15) is someone I’m higher on than most seem to be. It’s probably because people are scared over ever drafting a Denver back. But Shanahan is gone now, and so there’s no reason to expect they’ll run things the same way they used to. The fact that they drafted a back so high says to me that they plan to make him a feature of the offense. And he’s probably the most talented RB Denver has ever drafted. I could see him being a very solid RB2 all year, so at $15 I’m happy to have him.
Darren Sproles ($9)
I probably overpaid for him because he was nominated early on and I wanted him. If he lasted to the late rounds he probably would’ve gone for $6. I like him much more in a league that has return yardage points but he’s probably the best handcuff in the league, and for $9 I’m happy to take the risk with all that upside.
Felix Jones ($6)
I don’t know much about the Dallas situation. Ellis Dee seems to think Felix Jones will be the starter at some point, other people are high on Marion Barber. I guess this is sort of a cross-league hedge - if Barber goes down or loses his starter position on my all-pro team, at least I’ll get some good out of it. Seems like a good upside pick for $6.
Ricky Williams ($1). Ronnie Brown is an injury risk and here’s his handcuff. Still, given that I had $13 left at this point there were certainly better things I could’ve done with my last bench slot, so I regretted this pick right after I nominated him, and I was hoping someone would bid $2. I was also hoping ESPN would allow me to draft another player in lieu of a kicker like yahoo did. Oh well.
WRs $65, 32.5% of cap
$28 Roddy White, Atl (21)
$22 Wes Welker, NE (51)
$6 Derrick Mason, Bal (120)
$5 Steve Breaston, Ari (123)
$4 Donnie Avery, StL (108)
I like Roddie White ($28) a lot. He’s produced consistently good seasons with anyone at QB, and Ryan should be more polished than last year and they’ll probably open greater parts of the playbook for him. No reason Roddy can’t receive for 1300+.
Wes Welker ($22) is a player I’d rather snag in a ppr league, but he’s going to be solid here too. I can’t see any reason he won’t put up 1200+. Compared to the price on other tier 1 and tier 2 WRs, I think I got good value on both of them.
Derrick Mason ($6) is one of the quitest guys you can have for who you can pencil in a 1000 yard season. He won’t come out of nowhere to surprise you with a big season, but faux retirement aside (and what was the deal with that, just trying to avoid practicing?) he’ll produce consistent, decent numbers from week to week.
Steve Breaston ($5). Even as the third WR in Arizona, he has the chance to produce 1000+ yards plus. If either Fitz or Boldin should miss time, his value goes up even further.
Donnie Avery ($4).
I don’t really know what to make of Avery except he seems like the undisputed #1 receiver on an offense that likes to pass a lot (even if it doesn’t do so particularly well) - for $4 that’s quite an upside.
My WR1 and WR2 are pretty much set - WR3 will probably rotate between those guys every week.
Misc:
$3 Zach Miller, Oak (98)
$3 Chargers D/ST, SD (112)
$2 Stephen Gostkowski, NE (129)
I like Zach Miller as a safety blanket for JaMarcus Russel. He was already the team’s leading receiver last year, and if he can just score some TDs this year he’ll be good.
I probably overpaid for the Chargers D, but I like them with the return of Merriman/Cromartie and the fact that they get to play Oakland/Denver/KC 6 times a year. They have among the softest schedules a defense can face.
Gostkowski was my last pick where I had $12 and could only draft a kicker. May as well pay the massive $1 premium to get the best one.
My team (which is now “I Am Evil Homer” instead of “Team White Castle”), looks like a typical team I’ve drafted - kind of weak on stud RBs, strong at WR, with a lot of interesting bench players with potential.
My biggest regret is that I wasn’t willing to pay even more for the QB I wanted, Rodgers, because I wound up paying MORE for Romo at $19 and Ryan at $15 than I would have for Rodgers and a $1 backup. (Rodgers went for $32 to Senor Beef.) I’m less than thrilled by the RB because all the ones I wanted (Slaton, Grant, Forte, Kevin Smith, & Pierre Thomas) went above my limit (which admittedly was too low), so I wound up with high-risk starters Tomlinson (age) and LenDale White (may lose goal line touches to Chris Johnson).
WR is my strongest position, as I got Fitz for exactly my limit ($41) as he was only the third highest priced WR (because Varlos took BOTH A. Johnson and Moss for more!), and Jennings at $29 was also a worthy add. Houshmanzadeh at $18 was so-so, and Antonio Bryant for $10 was fine. I also took a shot with David Clowney for $2 and Miles Austin for $1.
TE looks weak, as I only got one for $1, but Brent Celek looked like a beast during the playoffs last year and I was happy to get him.
I have a glut of interesting $1 backup RBs; Tashard Choice and Mwelde Moore both looked good when they got playing time last year, and Coffee looks strong in preseason. Obviously these are all speculative and dependent on injuries to see playing time.
I may look into some trades to shore up some weaknesses, but it’s a team.
So it was you who jacked up the price on both my starting WRs. (OchoCinco and Vincent Jackson.) Looks like we both learned a lesson about waiting until later in the draft to start picking up a position.
Neither of us had any receivers, and the pool of starting WRs started to get very thin. When I checked, it seemed to me that there were only two WRs worth starting* left for sale, so I was going to have them for up to $20 each. Thank god you gave up at $19 on both of them or I’d’ve been screwed.
The lesson here is that the last available starters at a position will get overvalued much like the first nomintions on the board get overvalued. The waiting game pays dividends, but only to a point. Wait too long and you’ll have to overpay, sometimes by an obscene margin. Wait longer than that and you’ll be left with dirt cheap scrubs.
I guess that best bidders are the ones that jupm into the sweet spot. Maybe wait until a few studs have already come off the board at a position, then bid every stud at value until you land one. Repeat until you fill your needs or the stud pool starts to dry up, at which point start bidding over value.
*I’m not huge on Wes Welker in a non-PPR league, and I’m starting Braylon Edwards and TJ Houshmanzadeh in the All-Pro league so I didn’t want either of them. And I don’t like Brandon Marshall at all with all the drama, so that pretty much left OchoCinco, Vincent Jackson and nobody else.
It was certainly a lesson learned. Though in my defense, I was bidding on the top guys when they presented a value. Where my biggest mistake came was in balking at a difference of a dollar, or two, or three. Later in the draft, in order to acquire anyone, I had to overpay by sometimes 5 or 6 dollars. If the difference between Randy Moss and DeSean Jackson is 3 dollars, I’d rather have paid double and gotten Moss. Essentially, I was uncomfortable paying $3 extra for Moss, but perfectly willing to pay $3 extra for Jackson. Stupid. Doubly stupid when I couldn’t manage to take the money I saved overall from not buying Moss and turning it into another WR comparable to Jackson.
It isn’t as if buying a bunch of the mid range high upside guys is a bad strategy. If, at the end of the season, you calculated the price per fantasy point of the top receivers and the guys I got, I’m betting that my guys end up scoring more points per dollar I paid. Unfortunately, that value doesn’t translate into wins often. You really have to have a guy at each skill position who has the capability to get 3 TDs in a game. I missed all those guys.
This is an excellent point that I never took into consideration. This is the sort of experience you can’t possibly have when doing your first draft (and maybe not even after having done a couple or a few). If you are targeting a specific WR, and you look at the board and only your guy and one other comparable guy are left, you need to go after both and win one. If the other guy gets nominated before yours, you’re going to end up way overpaying for your guy (like I did with Rice compared to Moreno). It turns out that tiers are just as important in auctions as in standard drafts. You need to know when the tiers are emptying and jump in and get one for sure, even if it isn’t your specific guy. If you pass on all of them and patiently wait for your guy and someone else gets desperate and will pay double for them, you’ve basically shoot yourself in the foot.
I think, aside from not knowing how high to bid the guys I wanted compared to what I would later pay for lesser guys, my patience and manipulation of the draft was masterful. A lot of the competition I would have had for players I was targeting was taken out of the picture by how I nominated players or bid up other guys in order to soak up a couple extra dollars from an opponent. Perfect examples are how I nominated nothing but QBs and RBs early, filling my opponent’s roster spots and emptying the available buyers, knowing which guys I would take later. Notice how low Rivers was nominated (I nominated Warner and Romo, I think), and how low Slaton was nominated (I think I nominated one or two top guys, no idea though). Same with Rice (I nominated a handful of mid level RBs). This can easily backfire too, I guess, knowing how the last players on a tier get overbid.
Auction is such a cool format for the subtleties. It was really a lot of fun to watch every single pick go by, even if I wasn’t interested in the players. It was fun nominating players I knew other owners were really high on, so they would fill that roster spot before my guy came around. And the deep analysis of the subtleties of the auction draft is really interesting, to me, at least. I can easily see how a single person with great poker skills could impact every other team in an in-person auction draft.
Yeah, I love the auction format. Makes for a more involved, more interesting draft by far. If yahoo implements an auction system, I’m going to try to see if I can get everyone in the all-pro league and possibly others to be willing to convert.
A live auction would be even more fun, but I don’t know anyone out here who does live fantasy drafts. I wonder if people recruit others on craigslist or something.
That’s been my strategy also (for the whopping one other time I’ve done an auction draft). Avoid the initial run, and try and get the second tier guys who are going to make the jump. Then, spend like crazy and fill the roster with those $1, $2, $3 guys who you like. I didn’t have to do that latter part this year, mostly because I quit bidding when the guys I did want were too high. So I went with depth. Of course that means fuckers like you steal Aaron Rodgers, or Omni gets the Packers D, or Gore goes for $43 and I miss out, but I fill out the roster with more middle of the road guys and less shots in the dark.
Love him. You overpaid, but I love him.
He blows. Which is fine as a backup, but you will not win with him starting. He rarely (3 times last year) throws more than one td and even more rarely gets 300 yards a game. And with 5 games of less than 200 yards and 3 of those with no TDs, he’ll go barren on you. Welcome to the “My God I Hope Aaron Rodgers Stays Healthy” Club.
OF course not, because they suck. And I mean your RBs not the reviewers. OK, just kidding, they don’t suck. They just don’t shine either. Thomas splits carries and had a whopping one game over 100 yards. His TDs are nice though. Brown may be all that and a bag of chips though. I like him, the Dolphins like him, and he’s healthy, so I think he was your best pick by far. If he stays healthy. I don’t get the Moreno fantasy love. He’s a rookie, he’s injured, he hasn’t played yet, he’s in a crowded backfield, and he’s on a team with an iffy defense. I just don’t get it. Maybe I didn’t see enough of his college games. Jones has a chance to be a stud, but he’s missed a year already and both Barber and Choice are going to take carries. Sproles and Williams are just backups. You NEED Brown to be good, because I’m not seeing too many points there.
Roddy was a great pick at a good price. Solid starter every week with a chance to be special. I also like Avery a ton … next year. I fear the Rams will have problems moving the ball, especially through the air. But I hate Welker (three friggin TDs all year. Unacceptable, even at $22), Mason (shoulda stayed retired), and Breaston (he can’t match last season’s totals unless someone gets injured and that someone isn’t named Warner). Still, you have enough balance of a stud, a yardage boring guy, and maybe a couple of up and comers. Fair to middlin.
Meh. Of course I paid $4 for perenially overrated Shockey (This is his year!!!), so I got nothing.
Overall, I think you need Rodgers to be REALLY special to make the playoffs. There is certainly enough there to compete, but nothing really screams “beware of the Beef” to me. Good Luck.
The only people I met in Vegas who did live drafts were in a ridiculous dealer’s money league. It was a thousand dollar buy in, and each waiver claim cost additional money based on an auction format. The prize pool at the end from buy ins and waiver claims ended up near 20grand each season. I told him I wasn’t interested in joining in.
Garrard had the most injury-riddled offensive line in the league last season. They picked up Tra Thomas (still an outstanding pass blocker, if no longer much on run blocking), and a veteran WR. He had exactly one reliable receiver last season, MJD, and yet, despite everything you said about his totals being true, he was a top ten fantasy QB. If you think he blows, you’re way, way off. The Jaguars need to merely get raped by bad luck this season, as opposed to the unspeakable horrors that befell them last year, to see a significant improvement from Garrard.
I should have been clearer. I don’t think Garrard sucks as a NFL Quarterback (he’s just fine), I think he’s a bad fantasy quarterback (sucks was going to far). While he was the 10th to 13th rated QB based on total points by the end of the season, that was more due to his starting all 16 games. His average points per week put him right in the middle of the pack with the likes of Thigpen, Eli, Favre, and Campbell. So, yes, in a 14 team league, he’s right up there as the best backup. But he does nothing for me. And, as I said, I can’t imagine a team winning a fantasy championship with him as a starter.
Self-Review:
I had a strategy going in, and I stuck to it, for better or worse. The past two years in this league I’d made sure to pay for two “1st Round” RBs, and in both years I’ve chosen the wrong ones and had terrible years. This year, it seemed like there were a bunch of high-upside, low-risk WRs, so I made up my mind to get three studs at that position, then to take at least 5 cheap RBs, each with a chance to breakout and become a legitimate fantasy starter. I’d also do something similar with QBs.
QB ($19, 9.5% of cap)
$10 Jay Cutler, Chi (80)
$7 Matt Hasselbeck, Sea (122)
$2 Jason Campbell, Was (144)
Eh, not exactly what I had in mind, to be honest. What I really wanted is to do is the kind of thing Hamlet did: McNabb ($15), Schaub ($14), Palmer ($8). One of those guys will stay healthy and be a Top 5 QB. Of course, that trio would cost double what mine did, so there’d be a tradeoff.
As it is, I had no notion about buying Cutler before the draft, but at $10 I couldn’t resist. Dude threw for over 4,500 yards last year, even with the move to Chicago that’s worth a look at $10. Hasselbeck is basically a Football Outsiders pick: they like him and the Seahawks to be very respectable this year, winning the NFC West even. I suspect the guy who I was bidding against read that as well, since I expected to get him for $2 or $3. Campbell’s just a guy with a starting job on a team that doesn’t suck. And he’s still young, so he could improve this year.
RB ($35, 17.%% of cap)
$17 Derrick Ward, TB (90)
$10 Reggie Bush, NO (61)
$4 Leon Washington, NYJ (133)
$3 Julius Jones, Sea (151)
$1 Jerome Harrison, Cle (160)
Yeah. First of all, let me say that I have no idea what Reggie Bush is doing on my team. I asked one of my alters if he knew anything about it, but he just flashed me one of those inscrutable grins and ignored the question. :rolleyes:
The rest of these guys I like ok. I wish I’d gotten Betts, Fred Jackson, or especially Mendenhall to round out the group, but still I have a good chance to land the two good RBs I need. Two *very *talented youngsters with aged veterans in front of them, two nominal starters on what should be pretty high-scoring teams, and Derrick Ward, whose team should run the ball a lot providing they don’t go 4-12.
It was so stupid of me not to get Mendenhall for $8 or $10.
WR ($122, 61% of cap)
$44 Andre Johnson, Hou (9)
$43 Randy Moss, NE (8)
$27 Marques Colston, NO (37)
$6 Torry Holt, Jac (96)
$2 Kevin Curtis, Phi (166)
Now we’re talking. Injury is a possibility with any player, but barring that there’s no real downside to my starting three (even if Schaub gets hurt, Andre Johnson produces). There’s also no reason that all three can’t go for 1500/12. As for Torry Holt, I’m buying into two theories: last year had more to do with the complete collapse of the team around him, and, regardless, there’s no one else in Jacksonville who can catch the ball. I think he’s a very solid backup at $6.
I don’t know why I said “$2” on Kevin Curtis. Wish I hadn’t.
TE ($15, 7.5% of cap)
$15 Antonio Gates, SD (36)
The top TEs went very cheaply this year, it seems. Didn’t plan on spending big here at all, but I’m very happy with Gates at $15. OTOH, if I’d known I could get Keller at $2, I might have gone that route, instead.
K/DEF ($2, 1% of cap)
K$1 Adam Vinatieri, Ind (169)
$1 Patriots D/ST, NE (177)*
Wanted Gostowski and Chicago, both got bid up by teams with spare dollars and no more spots left to fill. Lesson learned: you might could get your preferred K/DEF more cheaply in the middle of the draft.
Almost all I had read from people I trust were preaching the need to grab top WRs this year. But I’m just too damn old fashioned to go out and blow 43% of my entire budget on WRs.
Not too shabby. I’m not sold on Cutler (just ask Omni), but he puts up the stats if not the wins. I had targeted Hasselbeck as great value later in the draft, but I had already had 3, so there was no point. Campbell is OK insurance. Took a risk waiting so long for a QB, but it just may pay off. Maybe.
Wow, thats… Well that’s just … Damn man, what is up with that RB corp? Ward was great value … back when the Bucs signed him as a high priced free agent. But with Cadillac and Graham still in the mix, I can’t imagine that he’ll be a #1 RB. I like Leon alot, he’s always a threat. But the Jets need to get him the ball more. Damn. That is one shitty roster of RB’s. The price you pay for those studly WR’s I guess.
Stellar lineup. All your eggs are in your WR basket, but it’s a pretty nice basket.
I was convinced there was no point at all in paying more than $5 for any TE. With just $10 from here, you could have had Ryan Grant, or some other real running back.
I am intrigued by the strategy. I don’t think it will work, but I’ve been wrong before. Lots of times before. Good Luck.
I think this auction was quite a bit more savvy than our previous efforts. The wrong Steve Smith at $10 was the only true fuckup, and even that wasn’t the worst thing in the world. It was certainly no $40 Chris Cooley.
Nobody was employing a goofy homer approach, coughs, nobody spent their entire $200 on a single QB/RB power tandem, and as above nobody spent $40 on a scrub by accident. With 10 players using a thoughtful approach and two computer bidders looking for good value late, there were no easy pickups in this year’s auction.
It was interesting to see how these differences radically changed this auction compared to years past. And no small part of it was the interface overhaul espn implemented, speeding the auction up beyond belief. The All-Pro league is the same size and took 90 minutes to complete a conventional draft, compared to this auction finishing at 11:08 after starting 5 minutes late and with a 10 minute break at the one hour mark. Doing the math, this auction took 25% longer than a standard draft, which is a trivial price to pay for the added fun and interest of being involved in every pick.
I’m fully on the auction train.
All right! Welcome aboard!
I don’t know: points is points, no matter where they come from. If, instead of taking Gates, I take, say, Randy McMichael for $1 (pretty much what I expected to do going in), then roll the savings into a $14 upgrade for D. Ward ($17) or R. Bush ($10), how much expected value am I gaining at the RB position?
As a quick & dirty method, we can assign expected value to RBs and TEs by taking their ranks on the cost list at their positions, then assuming they will perform about as well as previous players with that rank on the total points list.
So, for example: the 8th most expensive RB (LdT this year) will tend to perform, in the long run, about as well as the 8th most valuable RB has in years past. We have two years we can look at in Yahoo ('07 and '08), and to smooth out the data we would assign LdT an expected value equivalent to the average of the 7th, 8th, and 9th ranked RBs in '07 and '08, giving us six data points from which to draw an EV. What does this method yield for the question at hand?
A) Gates is in a 3-way tie at $15 for the most expensive TE, so let’s take the average of the top 3 TEs in the last two years as his EV: 143.3. A $1 McMichael would be tied for the 12th most expensive TE, so we’ll take the point totals for TEs 11-13, yielding an EV of 78.9. Gates’ Expected Points Over Replacement: 64.4 (4.6 Points per marginal dollar spent).
B) Derrick Ward is the 23rd most expensive back. If I spend my $14 on upgrading him, I get $31, right between the 12th and 13th RBs. It wouldn’t actually get me the 12th RB, but let’s be generous and say that it does, for the sake of argument. Using the same method as before, the EV of the 12th RB is 187.1, while the EV of the 23rd RB is 136.4. Therefore, Expected Value of upgrading from Ward to 12th best RB: 50.7 (3.6 Points per marginal dollar spent).
C) Reggie Bush ($10) is the 31st most expensive RB. Spending an extra $14 on his spot gets me to $24, the cost of the 19th RB. Of course, the 19th RB would cost me at least $25, but, again, for the sake of argument we’ll assume I can get him for my $24. The EV of the 19th RB is 159.6, while the EV of the 31st RB is 115.6. Expected Value of upgrading from Bush to the 19th best RB: 44.0 (3.1 Points per marginal dollar spent).
Now it’s entirely possible (probable, in fact) that I would have been better off transferring money to my RB budget from another part of my roster, but I’m confident that, all else being equal, my $14 was better spent moving all the way up the TE food chain as opposed to half-way up the RB chain at one roster spot.
The top TEs were a crazy good value this year. I usually think the top TEs are overdrafted, and in our league in the past the top TE would approach or exceed $30. I’m regretting not snatching a top 3 TE in the $13-15 range. I guess I told myself I didn’t need to spend much on a TE with so much depth this year, but really, Gates/Witten/etc. for $15 or under are just really good value and I should’ve bid.
LaDainian Tomlinson has a capital D, so it would be LDT instead of LdT.