One idea I’ve had recently is to do a retrospective on our previous years. Everyone says it takes three years to evaluate a draft, so maybe the same period of time will allow us to evaluate our dynasty drafts. Let’s see what interesting information is buried in our 2017 season.
1.01 Jules - Leonard Fournette, RB, Jax
1.02 Retro - Dalvin Cook, RB, Min
1.03 Jules - Joe Mixon, RB, Cin
1.04 Ellis - Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
1.05 Beef - Corey Davis, WR, TEN
1.06 RNATB - Kareem Hunt, RB, KC
1.07 Hamlet - Mike Williams, WR, LA Chargers
1.08 Omni - Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI
1.09 Petey - Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oak
1.10 Stringer - John Ross, WR, CIN
1.11 Varlos - Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
1.12 Justin - Zay Jones, WR, BUF
This was the first of two seasons where I moved up to 1.01. I remember salivating over CMC’s game film as he was playing at Stanford and promising myself I would do anything I could to draft him. At the time, I was using the first version of my rookie rating algorithm which valued Fournette so much higher than everyone else that I became blinded to it. I should have stuck to my gut and taken CMC, and I regret it now. I remember thinking that Ron Rivera and Carolina would never use him properly because their offensive scheme was so boring and unimaginative. I just completely blew it, and Ellis Dee was lucky enough to benefit and got a championship out of it.
I don’t know if this is interesting to anyone else, but missing on CMC the way I did was the reason I was so aggressive to move up for Saquon the year after. I recognized a generational talent and didn’t let him slip that time (although he was significantly better than his peers in value that year).
SenorBeef was coming off of a championship the year before, and getting the consensus top WR this season was a horrifying thought for the league. Davis has been just on this side of a bust, but there are a lot of signs that point to him just being screwed by that franchise. For example, he had by far the highest percentage of uncatchable targets in the league in 2019. He needs a change of scenery, badly.
RNATB didn’t want Kareem Hunt, but ended up getting some incredible seasons out of him. You don’t get credit for getting lucky being “forced” to take someone you hate when it works out in hindsight.
The Mitchell Trubisky pick was a disaster, much like his pick in the real NFL draft. At the time, the pick was questionable in light of who was selected after (Watson and Mahomes). The debate about who is a better prospect that took over the league thread was a bad omen for what was to come.
Stringer whiffed badly, which is probably what led him to ditch the league by the start of the next season. Varlos made a point to mention how much he hated picking Kamara, so he gets little credit for backing into that fortune.
Best pick: It would have been Kamara had it been deliberate, but instead it was CMC
Worst pick: Mitchell Trubisky. Ross is a close second, but WR as a position is not a reach at this spot in our draft the way that a QB typically is.
2.01 Jules - Marlon Mack, RB, IND
2.02 Retro - OJ Howard, TE, TB
2.03 Jules - Evan Engram, TE, NYG
2.04 Ellis - David Njoku, TE, CLE
2.05 Beef - Samaje Perine, RB, WAS
2.06 RNATB - D’Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
2.07 Hamlet - Darren McFadden, RB, DAL
2.08 Omni - Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
2.09 Petey - JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
2.10 Stringer - Jamaal Williams, RB, GB
2.11 RNATB - Chris Godwin, WR, TB
2.12 Varlos - Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
It was important to me to get that second rounder because I liked Mack’s explosive film so much. He developed some bad habits that led me to later trade him for Amari Cooper, but that was a good pick. I was thrilled that Retro picked Howard, because I liked Engram so much more, and that has pretty much been proven to have been right.
Perine and Foreman were two of the four RBs taken at this range that had poor-to-awful physical traits, and neither ended up being anything. These 2nd to 3rd round RBs with poor physical grades don’t tend to pan out, it seems. Cohen was a reach, but a pretty good pick all things considered. There’s still meat on that bone, but 2019 was a major concern.
The last quarter of this round was a murderer’s row of good picks, with the exception of yet another Stringer whiff. There are franchise foundations taken here, it’s just a shame that Petey traded Juju away for scraps.
Best pick: Chris Godwin
Worst pick: D’Onta Foreman
3.01 dale - Joe Williams, RB, SF
3.02 Retro - Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
3.03 dale - James Conner, RB, PIT
3.04 Ellis - Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN
3.05 Beef - DeShone Kizer, QB, CLE
3.06 Justin - Aaron Jones, RB, GB
3.07 Hamlet - Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.08 Omni - Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
3.09 Petey - Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.10 Stringer - Tawan Taylor, WR, TEN
3.11 Retro - Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX
3.12 Ellis - Adam Shaheen, TE, CHI
Joe Williams got some crazy hype right before this draft, and I thought dale got a steal there. It turns out it was a mirage.
Curtis Samuel stands out as yet another overly hyped fantasy darling that has yet to do anything with his potential, but at least he is still in the league. Conner was an exceptionally savvy pick considering dale got a top-6 finish out of him the next season.
Beef had a big choice to make between Kizer and Mahomes, and he elaborated on it in a really interesting pair of posts. It is an unfortunate miss, but a defensible one this late in the draft.
Look at those next four picks. Aaron Jones was last year’s #2 RB. Hamlet got lucky backing into Mahomes as the 4th QB taken, but you can’t beat that value. Golladay is a back end #1 WR, but that was an incredible pick. Remarkably, Golladay was the most hyped “sleeper” heading into the draft that season, and he lasted to the 3rd! (Had I not traded my third, he would have been my pick at 3.03) Cooper Kupp was also a fantastic pick. He didn’t get nearly enough sleeper hype.
Stringer strikes out with another whiff. He had by far the worst draft this year. RIP
Best pick: Kenny Golladay
Worst pick: Carlos Henderson
4.01 dale - Matt Breida, RB, SF
4.02* Varlos - RB Danny Woodhead, BAL
4.03 Jules - Chris Carson, RB, SEA
4.04 Ellis - ArDarius Stewart, WR, NYJ
4.05 Varlos - ???
4.06 Justin - Wayne Gallman, NYG, RB
4.07 Hamlet - Brian Hoyer, QB, SF
4.08 Omni - Mike Glennon, QB, CHI
4.10 Stringer - Jacksonville DST
5.01 dale - Buffalo, DST
5.03 Jules - Mack Hollins, WR, PHI
5.04 Ellis - Josh Reynolds, WR, LAR
5.07 Hamlet - Kerwynn Williams, RB, ARI
5.08 Omni - Chris Conley, WR, KC
5.11 Varlos - ???
6.01 Jules - Paul Richardson, WR, Sea
6.03 dale - Wil Lutz, K, NO
6.07 Hamlet - Gerald Everett, TE, LAR
Chris Carson was an astoundingly good pick, if I may say so. I am such an idiot for trading him for homer trash. Breida still has value as the second half of a time share, which is still good for a 4th after this much time. As Mr. Irrelevant, Gerald Everett still has value, which is a pretty good pick.