I’m surprised. Not a bad pick, but I didn’t expect it.
I sent a pm to Ellis, just in case
Well, I hated this guy at 1.05, but I actually like him pretty well at 2.05:
2.05 Ellis - Ronald Jones, RB, TB
PM sent to Overly Sentimental
There he goes! That is actually potentially incredible value. We might look back at that pick and marvel how dumb we all were to pass on him so much.
2.06 George Kittle, TE, SF
Anybody interested in trading up to 2.12? I’d like an rb upgrade and an end round pick
Yeah, that’s a good pick there. He was in the running for 1.06 until I saw that he’s been basically a complete disappointment to his team, but there’s plenty of time to recover. His college highlights look good.
I’ve been too busy over the last few days to comment on the draft so far, so let’s catch up.
This is obviously a huge one, and Jules does it again. I complimented him last week about really changing his team up to make it his, rather than sticking with what he inherited, and he’s done an incredible job. Almost his whole roster was picked by him at this point - a totally new dynasty team made out of what he could get for scrapping the old one.
I like this trade for both teams. Dale needs a number of quality players more than he needs one star. Russell Wilson is, at worst, the 3rd best dynasty QB. Derrick Henry is a guy I think may be successful now that Murray is gone. And Doug Baldwin is pretty reliable. And he gets a first pick next year. I think he made a really good trade for his team.
Jules’ team has greater depth and can afford to give away a few players, although I’m sure it hurts, if he thinks (like apparently everyone does) that Barkley is the second coming of LdT.
If anything, I like Dale’s side of this a little bit (I’m not sold on Barkley being as good as he needs to be to justify this sort of cost) but since both teams had different needs, both teams got away with what they wanted. That’s what trading should be - not trying to rip someone else off, but noticing that people have different strengths and weaknesses and helping each other make that situation better.
I also really appreciate how much Dale puts into his team year after year despite usually finishing near the bottom. I’m rooting for him to have a big year.
I can see the logic behind this one, if you’re super confident that Royce is the second best RB/RB situation in the draft, but it’s a bit of a hefty price to jump what seems to be not to be a full tier jump. But I get it - this draft isn’t super strong around the end of the first (although Kerryon ended up falling that far) but you could’ve had Penny or Michel or Chubb and Kerryon. I was pretty surprised - the draft-and-trade thing rarely happens.
Welcome, friend. All aboard.
I actually really like Mayfield. I think that if he was 3 inches taller, we’d talk about him as being one of the best prospects ever, but he’s not, so people are pretty down on him. But he’s worked his ass off for everything he’s ever had. His teammates in college couldn’t love him more. He’s smart, determined, and now that the Browns have a real OC I hope that Hue won’t ruin him. I was looking to move into the early second to grab Mayfield, so I was surprised when he came out this early. I don’t know if I could’ve justified using my only pick in the first 30 or so picks on him, though.
Omni was pissed at this, which makes me happy. My benchmark for whether I did good or not used to be whether Stringer would get mad, but since he’s not here now, Omni would you like to take over those duties?
Thinking this is way in my favor is short term thinking, though. It does probably make my team better in the next 2 years, but Jules may get the best of it after that. Corey Davis was probably the top WR prospect in 3 years and it’s not like he’s a bust - he was hurt, and started playing well at the end of the year. He could absolutely become one of the blue chip players who’s ranked top 10 in dynasty every year. And he could do it for a decade. That’s a big cost to give up for me.
In return, TY Hilton is very very good when his situation is good, and not very good when it isn’t. Whether Luck can feed him the ball properly is going to be a gamble. He’s 28, so he’s not old, but he’s a lot older than Davis. He’ll start declining in 2-3 years.
Howard over Miller is an upgrade, but I think Miller will bounce back a bit this year so it’s not that huge a gap. But I get better and younger at RB, so that’s great.
Moving down from a late second to a mid first is not a small part of this trade. I could’ve ended up taking Chubb/Kerryon back to back, which is in retrospect sounds delicious.
Still, I’m quite sure I’m ready to contend. I was derailed by a Rodgers injury last year, but things are lining up for me including JOSH GORDON and I think I can make a championship run this year. I’m trading some future value to get players I hope to have star production now. And Jules takes a very long term view on these things even though he’s only been in the league for a short while, which is good.
But I do have some inside information that makes this trade seem better - I saw a cell phone pick of Lamar Miller doing coke at a rave, and Corey Davis has the same condition that the guy in memento did and can only teach himself to play WR through conditioning.
Feels a bit silly to trade out of the 1.06 and then trade for the 1.07. I did the same thing last year in the second round. I feel like with Josh Gordon coming back, and I’m hopeful about Martavis Bryant, Cameron Meredith, and Allen Robinson coming back (all gone last year) that I can replace that production and get younger. It does make me a little RB heavy - I had a good WR/RB balance before and now I feel like my WR depth is suffering a bit, but I’m happy with it.
Demaryius faced pretty much the worst case scenario for himself last year and still came out with almost 1000 yards. He’s very steady, and Petey will get a few years of reliable high floor production out of him.
I kept going back and forth on Kerryon and Chubb. I mentioned that already. Kerryon passes the eye test better to me - I like his running style more. Chubb is just a size/speed guy. But then when I looked it up - he’s a very good size/speed guy. 98th percentile SPARQ score.
It ended up coming down to… if Kerryon is a star, and I don’t take him, I can live with that. But if Chubb is a star, I have to watch him every week, since I’m watching Browns game, and see him putting up points that aren’t for me.
More later.
God damn it, I KNEW IT. Fold up the league. My team sucks and I’ve made a lot of shitty trades!!!
As the proud owner of Peyton Barber, I’ve been relieved to see just how poorly RJII has performed this preseason (less than 1.5 yards per carry) and the problems he’s reportedly having understanding the playbook. But teams don’t use a second round pick on a guy and then write him off after some early struggles, so I envision him as a change of pace back for the rest of season. I don’t think he’ll ever be a lead back, which is fine in the second round of a rookie draft.
I agree with this sentiment. Losing Wilson when you have Wentz and Garropolo is fine. Losing Henry when you have Fournette and Mixon may be fine. Losing Baldwin when you have Cooper and Diggs may be fine. But to give all three up for an unproven commodity at a position with such a limited shelf life is begging for trouble.
As I described it earlier, Jules is clearly swinging for the fences. He needs Fournette to continue to get double digit touchdowns and Mixon to improve dramatically on his 3.5 ypc. He needs Cooper to be a true #1 WR and Diggs to outplay Theilen. He needs Wentz to be healthy and productive. And now he needs Barkley to be a once in a decade RB. If everything works out for him, he’ll have an amazing, young team.
But things rarely work out that well. We will see though. It’s what makes fantasy football interesting.
I was all in on drafting Penny as soon as I realized I had the #2 pick. Then the preseason started. Freeman came on as the starter in Denver, and Penny got injured and couldn’t overtake Carson for the #1 role. I was completely torn. Freeman doesn’t have the burst and speed to be a true gamechanger, but he’s been highly productive and is in a much better position. So I reluctantly went with Freeman. When Justin Bailey made the offer, it was right up my alley. I got an additional first round pick, which is sorely needed to rebuild my depth with young talent, for giving up one side of a coin toss. If I loved Freeman more, or loved Penny less, I wouldn’t have made the trade.
That’s just it too. Mayfield was a “my guy” and I think he’ll be, at worst, a fine NFL QB. But from a pure value standpoint, 1.05 is way too early for a rookie QB, especially with the number of them available.
Key word: Could. You got two every week starters for moving down a round and giving up a “Could” who hasn’t had a 100 yard game or a single touchdown. Hell, I just drafted two “coulds” WR’s. That was a good trade for you.
You gave up Demaryius, a thirty year old WR whose targets, yards, ypc, and tds has gone down each of the last three years and whose team just drafted his replacement. He’s got one, maybe two, more years of WR2 production in him. Not a bad price for the 7th pick. Chubb was on my radar, and was, to my mind, the BPA available there. Nice get.
I must say, it’s been a very interesting draft so far. My team is waaaaaaayyyyyy RB heavy now, so if anyone is interested, let me know.
Since this is my only pick, I might as well Ricky Williams it.
2.07 Lamar Jackson, QB, Bal
Pick 2.08 Tre’Quan Smith WR NO
Can someone send a PM for me? I’m on a phone.
No worries, I’m logged in. Give me a minute.
2.09 Keelan Cole, WR, Jac
I’m on. Coming in a bit.
I mean…the reports out of camp and the preseason performance are about as bad as they can be. I considered him but, he just screams bust.
Jordan Howard had a really poor preseason and couldn’t catch as well…but he wasn’t getting shit on by his coaches at the same time.
Well see…but I’m not buying it.
I gotchu fam.
Sorry, hard decision between Darnold and Rosen. I didn’t expect both to be here. Rankings seem split about 50/50. Seems like Darnold has the higher ceiling and the direct path to starting, but a worse situation. Arizona is a good situation for a rookie QB, but Bradford is pretty good ahead of him, but breaks a lot and so he’ll probably get a chance. Pick coming within 15 or so minutes, just doing some last minute watching.
Is that English? It looks like it should be English, but it makes no sense to me.
And get offa my lawn.
If you think Corey Davis is Julio Jones, then this trade is certainly a very fair trade, and probably slightly tilted in your favor. I think that assessment is utterly insane and you need to get your meds checked.
Not necesarily Julio Jones. Maybe a young TY Hilton 
Even if he’s Allen Robinson or so, that’d still be a pretty fair trade I think. You’re not accounting for age or situation enough, at least on the WRs.
Davis was hurt last year…but was also on the field for 89% of the teams passing plays in his 12 full games. He caught only 34 of his 64 targets for zero TDs with a 20% share of targets. That’s a big enough body of work to seriously undermine this idea that he’s going to ever be a WR1. If you think he’s going to be AR15 or even TY, you’re doing it on pure faith in spite of the tape he’s put up. He’s not a rookie, we have an idea of what he actually is, and it’s not good.
Running back age is WAY WAY more important than WR age. Hilton can be productive for 5-6 more year. Miller can’t. It’s a real possibility that Hilton puts up more fantasy points in the remainder of his career than Davis does, and I think a betting man might say the odds favor it.
There was also a time where WR weren’t expecting to actually contribute until year 3. This changed when we started seeing the OBJ, AB, etc. where we think all WR rookies better produce or they’re a bust.