Back from the weekend, and surprise surprise, ShadowFacts is riding me (must be a Mafia game).
Not much to use in my defense, except that his characterization of my “bandwagon” vote is crap. If I’d have been online the evening before I voted, I’d have voted then. My reasoning for voting wasn’t not weak, it weren’t spurious, and I’ll stand by it all the way down. He was playing way out of character, which can be a great scum indicator. To call it a “bandwagon” vote is maddening. JSexton made the statement that convinced me shortly after my workday ended. If he’d made it an hour earlier, we wouldn’t be having this conversation – I’d have been the second vote on him.
I want to get a vote out: vote Zeriel
based on the voting patterns. I think Squid is on the right track here. With 3 out of 6 voters on Zeriel YesterDay, I think it’s likely scum were pushing JSexton for his benefit. With one more Day of data, I’ll be ready to do some number crunching, but for now, I think this informal look is good enough to vote on.
By the way, does anyone want to hazard a guess on how many scum we have? With 23 players initially, 2 of them likely third parties, I think there’s probably 4 or 5 scum.
Your approach makes sense. However, I think that if you find someone scummier than the top vote getters, you should try to explain why you think so, and try to persuade others. If you don’t agree with the case against someone, try to point out its flaws. Town players have to work as a team, and if you’re off by yourself doing your own thing, it’s not as helpful. I’m still somewhat suspicious of you (see below), but for now I’ll move on Unvote One And Only Wanderers
The Day can’t last more than 144 hours. It says so in the rules. Also, Santo already said that his power doesn’t let him extend the Day beyond that limit. I don’t know whether you were being facetious, but I figured I’ll point it out just in case.
Right now, I’m fine with a Zeriel ban. What concerns me is that if he turns up town, it will almost inevitably lead to a Hal ban. And what if they are both town? On Day 1, all 3 of our top candidates were non-scum. If the same is true for Day 2, then scum wouldn’t care who got banned, and the weird vote patterns are just townies trying to figure out what to do.
That’s why I reviewed posts by people who made one-off votes at the end of Day 2 (namely OAOW, who was voting for me, and Total Lost, who voted for Zsofia), because I thought a scum would try to hide that way. If I had to pick between the two of them, I am more suspicious of OAOW. However, his ban won’t give us as much info as a Zeriel lynch, so Ban Zeriel
I just hope that if he comes up town, we won’t simply vote Hal without any further analysis, because that might be playing right into the scum’s hand. I’m not saying Hal isn’t scum, but I just don’t want to see a lot of votes Tomorrow saying, “well, since Zeriel was town, ban Hal.” Otherwise, that ban won’t tell us anything about the alignment of people voting for Hal.
Going by official vote counts alone, here’s what I think Zeriel’s alignment will tell us.
If he’s town:
The only unconfirmed voters for NBC are Santo and Hal. So it’s likely at least one of them is scum.
It also means that either no scum voted for Hal, or that ShadowFacts is scum.
(Oredigger77 is a CM)
If he’s scum:
The only additional piece of info I get from the vote records is that it’s less likely that ** Boozahol Squid, P.I** is scum. The reason I’m saying this is that on Day 1 there are so many potential targets for scum, it’s unlikely they’ll vote for each other right off the bat. However, I do realize that this type of reasoning is WIFOM.
Sorry, everyone. I got blasted with a wicked head cold yesterday afternoon that put me to bed last night without posting. I’m trying to slog through a couple hours of work before returning to bed. Hopefully the Day will last long enough for me to get back with a clear head, but don’t expect anything from me in the near term.
My apologies, I realize this is a sucky thing to do given that I put myself front and center in the conversation toDay, but my brain is wrapped in a towel right now
Dude. Seriously. If you’re going to discuss my role, please, please go back and read my posts pertaining to it. You’ve straight up called me a liar, and now you’re coming up with ways I confirm my role that I’ve explicitly stated I can’t do. Seriously, what gives?
I think ok11 has a very good point that if we ban either Zeriel or Hal, and they’re town, we’ll probably be doing some reflexive banning the next Day, which may or may not be very useful to us. There are few things less likely to produce information and less fun to play than a “lynch on rails” game.
These are my two posts about my case against Hal. There really isn’t much to it but then with these same two the pivotal roles in Shadow’s vote scenario from yesterDay, I think we’re headed in the right direction. Either one will be good for an informational lynch but I think Hal is a better lynch given that Z voted for him while Hal pushed J farther into the lead.
I’ve said it twice, Hal and Zsofia jumped on the JSexton bandwagon with pretty much no reason. Hal has been pinging me harder than Zsofia based on day one stuff. I felt three fingers was enough, as I didn’t feel it really contributed anything if I were to rank the entire population.
As for my thinking, well, I am a bit new to this game and am trying to digest a lot of this. I feel the best way I can contribute to the game is by posting my thoughts, and naively I thought everyone else would be doing the same. I’m learning as we play that this might not be the best strategy. It seems like a lot of people are willing to lurk and hammer away at prominent posters without offering analysis of their own. At this point I’m honestly a little confused about how to hunt scum.
Between this and reading hundreds of pages over at mafiascum I’m kinda worn out. Over there I’m trying to read games without knowing orientation and pick out the scum. Admittedly my success has been poor.
But seriously, try going to the last Day and finding out who the scum are before you read one of the games. Some things you wouldn’t notice if you didn’t know the person had ulterior motives just jump out at you.
For fucks sake, people, how is “He was A) distorting what I said, and B) acting like scumbusing was unheard of” no reason?? I’ll put my voting post again on tis page – it wasn’t a bandwagon vote, it wasn’t an OMGUS vote – it was a clear, simple, valid “I think you’re scum” vote, and all this digging for the “real” reason getting agravating as shit. I dread what’ll happen if (once work calms down and I can do a more thorough reread of today) I decide I find Zeriel to be the most suspicious. Won’t that ruffle some nuts…
Thanks Santo that is probably a better, if not more enjoyable, way to read other games. Funny how a normal conversational prepositional phrase can carry such heavy implications in this context. Thanks for not riding me on that.
:smack:
At this point, I’m forced into starting to make shit up for your role. By the bye, I’ll consider you confirmed if hard candy starts shooting out of my dog’s ass on any non-prime numbered night when the town outnumbers scum by exactly an 8:1 margin.
We’re more than 48 hours into the game, so are you going turn one of your FOSs into a vote soon? I don’t mean to single you out. I just wanted to take this opportunity to say that I think only 11 players voted so far, and it would suck if Day 3 ended and we had such a short vote record.
I feel your pain. I’ve been trying to read up on various roles lately, and it made me realize that what I’ve seen in games on this board is only the tip of the iceberg. I should have really done some outside research before I signed up to play.
Fair enough you came up with a valid reason for your vote, but that vote still put J further into the lead. But that doesn’t explain you waiting on your vote on Day 1 or your original vote for OK.
Either way, it seams that in order to come up a reasonable explanation for the voting yesterDay either you or Z needs to go. I think that your actions haven’t been as weird individually as Z but the body of your work has more of an anti-town slant. I think that its more likely for scum to play the middle of the road game then to be in our faces like Z (not saying that he isn’t scum). So I think we’ll get the best information from your lynch.
If I’m counting this right, Hal is leading with 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Zeriel) , tied with Zeriel also at 4 (Kat, Boozahol, Pleonast, Ok11)
Compare that with yesterday’s vote
JSexton : 7 (BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, Nanook o/t North Shore, ok11)
Zeriel : 6 (Kat, amrussell, JSexton, Hero from Sector 7G, Pedescrobe, Blaster Master)
Hal Briston : 3 (Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Zeriel)
If Shadow’s earlier claim that Hal was being protected I am really curios to hear any views again on who is doing the protecting, especially in light of today’s votes. I just can’t see a pattern that will help us tomorrow.
What I do see is a block of three votes on Hal that is the same as yesterday. These votes manifested themselves today as Zeriel also gained votes. This morning Shadow said nothing about how yesterday Zeriel had the same conditions as Hal. Watching a similar sequence of events unfold today has left me very uneasy about Shadow.
Vote ShadowFacts
–
These 48 hours went by too quick and there wasn’t a whole lot of discussion, especially from some repeat offenders. I was sitting on my hands hoping to get a little more input from people but it doesn’t look like that is going to happen.
These are the lowest participants in this thread by post count.
28 - Kat
25 - ShadowFacts
24 - Fretful Porpentine
20 - One And Only Wanderers
Of those, OAOW is the only person to not even bothering to place a vote today.
FOS: One and Only Wanderers
I’m also really hoping to see everyone else put their votes in. We need that information, even if it doesn’t impact the lynch.
