I don’t have much to say in my defense that I haven’t already said.
Reading Hero’s last post, it does kinda jump out at me a bit that there’s a block of people who voted for JSexton yesterDay who have jumped on me today–three of the four votes on me, in fact, are moves over from JSexton. IF Hal is being protected, there’s a potential scum block, since voting to lynch me doesn’t look too bad with my alignment unknown to the town at large.
If Hal turns out to be town, then none of that is worth anything, of course, since he’s clearly not actually being protected.
Again, you had more votes than Hal yesterday. Am I misreading something somewhere? Why am I the only one seeing this? How the heck would a vote on JSexton protect Hal, when you were next in line?
OK, I’m back, still feeling like shit, but I feel obligated to get to this point, as I promised I would. Hero, please don’t take this the wrong way, but I think your analysis of the voting yesterDay is overly simplistic. You look at the end result and say that since JSexton was in the lead and Zeriel was 2nd, if any protecting was going on, it was for Zeriel. But look who was voting for JSexton after Hal went out of contention (after Pleo’s vote took JSex 2 votes ahead): pedescribe, who was Town; Nanook, who was PFK and presumably was not aligned with the main scum group; and ok11, who voted last and whose vote technically had no effect, since JSexton would have been lynched anyway. So…I’m not seeing anything there. I saw it earlier in the sequence, when Hal was in possible contention to take the lead.
Here’s what I think happened yesterDay: JSexton played his gambit, and when he admitted he was lying, a bunch of people jumped all over him, including - I am certain - some scum. I’m positive at least one of those 4 who voted for him quickly are scum. Why am I positive? Because he was an easy target. When I have played scum, that kind of play is like manna from heaven, because you can attack without hesitation for good reason (“lynch all liars”). Example: in the T-2 game I was scum, and Santo Rugger - for reasons I still don’t understand - disagreed with me when I stated that we needed everyone to provide substantive reasons for our votes. It was like early Xmas - I got to play the high road and say that Santo was playing anti-town (which he was, IMO!!). I didn’t get him lynched over that - there was too much other stuff going on - but I got a LOT of suspicion on him because of that. So, if I were scum in this game, I probably would have jumped on JSexton, too. (This is not to say that all those who voted for JSexton were scum - I’m sure they were not).
But the JSexton train began to slow down, because of his own explanations and some defense by mostly-confirmed amrussell. At the same time, Hal (and Zeriel, yes) began to catch up and close the gap. So a few more votes were needed to seal that deal. And seal the deal they did. Can I prove this is what happened? Not definitively. I could be wrong, but I’ve laid out the vote sequence and given my best analysis of what I think happened. But given the reaction toDay, I don’t think I’m wrong. Because the criticisms of my timeline have been…obfuscatory, I believe is the best word. Here’s what I mean:
After I laid out my case originally, this is what I get in response -
Note that the first criticism is a vague “sentiment” argument that does not rebut any of the specific claims I made, just tries to put my strategy of vote analysis in question. The second criticism is a complete falsehood. I asked Hero to defend this, showing how I was vocal about arguing against the JSexton lynch, and he responded that I wasn’t arguing against a JSexton lynch, but just “attack[ing] Hal.” I then showed that this, too, was a lie, to which he never responded. (See post 1103).
Hero is not the only one who has said this, but it is also simply not true. When Zeriel voted for Hal, it was JSexton 4, Zeriel 3, Hal 3. I’ve posted this multiple times.
Here’s an attempt to make it seem like I’ve got some kind of vendetta against Hal. As I explained to Boozie, IIRC the last time I played with Hal we were scumbuddies. I have no grudge against Hal whatsoever, and I’ve never carried a grudge from one game to another on anyone. This is pure obfuscation.
In short, I think I’m right, and I think the arguments against me have been spurious, wrong, and obfuscatory. And now Hero has even voted for me, which is total crap. Hero, what do you think I have to gain as scum by being this vocal against Hal? If we lynch him and he’s Town, I’m toast. Why would scummy me want a trade like that? But I’m more than willing to put it to the test.
I want my vote somewhere that it will make a difference, so:
Unvote Pleonast
I’m also seeing voting patterns toDay that look a lot like the ones yesterday – early push on Hal, followed by several people jumping in and voting Zeriel to tie things up. I think this most likely points to Hal being scum and Zeriel town (although honestly, I wouldn’t discount the possibility that they’re both town and the scum are laughing themselves silly right now).
Uh… if someone is at 4 votes, and the other person at 3, it takes TWO votes to put them into lynch leader. Stop telling us we are lying and think for a moment please.
Can… not… resist… defending… past… self. Agh! In that game it didn’t matter for Vanilla, because pretty much the entire Vanilla pool had to be lynched, and then the confirmed townies could be sorted through to find the recruit. I had accepted my fate.
But you bring up a very good point. If you were using someone else as an example, I would very strongly agree with the quoted part of your post. As is, I only agree quite strongly.
This Hal/Zeriel issue is just making me feel very uncomfortable. I don’t like it when people go: If Hal is scum then Zeriel must be Town or vice versa…
What if they are both Town?
We lynch one toDay and go after the other one ToMorrow??
I don’t have anyone of them as really scummy right now - and I’m not going to vote for them at this point. I know that means my vote (yet again) will not be on a lynch-leading-candadate, but I’ll not play into the hands of scum.
Vote Hero
For just being the one most scummy in my point of view…
(I think I already gave my reasons - but I will elaborate if anyone wants me too [like maybe Hero???])
it’s not a question of not being bothered, it’s a question of the day could end at any second, so I want a strong feel before I vote. I’m not going to pile on a wagon just because it’s a wagon, when day coule end any time. However, I can see where the voting record is important, so, to make sure I’m at least on the record, I will go with the same person I voted yesterday
Ban ok11
I still think his voting but not voting of JSexton was scummy. Slightly more so now that JS came up town.
Today’s pattern for the vote-leaders: Zeriel, Hal, Zeriel, Hal, Hal, Hal, Zeriel, Zeriel, Hal.
If we assume for a moment that Hal is scum and Zeriel town, then Pleonast and Ok11’s votes have done most to “save” Hal (taking the score from 4-2 to 4-4). Note that this is not enough to actually save Hal and in fact, after Oredigger’s vote (known town) Hal has stayed in the hot seat.
If we assume that Zeriel is scum and Hal town, then excepting Oredigger, Zeriel and Fretful have done the most to keep Hal ahead (3-2 to 4-2 and 4-4 to 5-4 respectively).
If we assume they’re both town, then there will be scum on both sides. Also, we’ll be in trouble.
Discounting that, both scenarios don’t offer any glaring inconsistencies. Certainly it is noteworthy that Pleonast, who had one of the more suspicious votes yesterday, is now voting for Zeriel; equally, most of Hal’s votes are repeats, which looks less like manipulation.
In the interests of putting pressure on any manipulating scum still out there (and because I’m still suspicious of him), I’m going to:
So now we’re tied up, amrussell. My question is, what do you expect to happen next?
As an aside, is anyone else noticing that a side effect of the variable length day is that discussion tends to trail off more rapidly as we’re all sort of expectantly waiting for the night? It’s seemed to me that most of our decisions are being made in the first 48 hours of any given day.
I think there will be scum on both sides regardless of the alignment of Zeriel and Hal. For the same reason, I don’t really think that there’s a “scum block”, as Zeriel seems to suggest. Why put all proverbial eggs into one basket?
It’s likely that yesterDay at least one scum voted for JSexton, and at least one for Zeriel. And if there was one scum voting for Hal, he’ll be the easiest to catch, especially if we ban Zeriel. It’s possible that scum didn’t vote for Hal at all, though, because he had relatively few votes.
We’ve been focusing a lot on the people voting for the top vote getters. We shouldn’t let the people who didn’t cast a vote at all go unnoticed, and the same goes for one-off voters. If there are really 4 or 5 scum, then it could easily turn out that each Day one of them votes for someone not in danger of being banned, another doesn’t vote at all, and the rest pick sides among our top vote leaders.
Sorry I wasn’t around long enough yesterday to get my vote in, so I’m going to get one in now before I catch up in the chance that the Day ends before I finish.
Ban Zeriel
A quick scan of the last few posts makes it look like the initial logic that the JSexton train was protection for someone Yesterday has dominated the discussion Today, and that Zeriel and Hal are the two candidates. I already expressed my suspicion of Zeriel Yesterday, and up through what I’ve read Today, nothing has changed that.
Now, as for the logic behind the JSexton train as cover… I’m not really sure what to think of it, especially since the person who proposed it suggested it was covering Hal, and yet the analysis I did earlier Today makes it much clearer that Zeriel was, at worst, in as much trouble, and generally in much more than Hal. Maybe I’m suffering from the same thing with just how scummy Zeriel looks to me, but that logic seems strange to me that the JSexton wagon barely saved Zeriel Yesterday, and now it’s being used as logic to potentially save her Today at the expense of Hal. I say this, because I strongly suspect that if and when Zeriel shows up as scum, the proponents of the logic of how that JSexton train was somehow more cover for someone else will have a lot of explaining to do, especially Shadow.
With that said, it looks like I have 2-2.5 pages to read, so I’ll post more as it comes to me, and I suspect I will since most of the votes seem to have come in in that time.
I could have sworn I read somewhere (not in this game) that Zeriel was female. My apologies to him then.
Fair point, and I’ll concede it. I remembered reading that there were probably two PFKs, but I didn’t put any more thought into it at the time.
I just want to say that I think this is a really dangerous thought pattern in either direction. Mark Wit very well could be a reference to the Snark Pit, especially since I cannot think of a better option for what the reference is. However, I just don’t think it’s a good idea to lend any credence to any claim based on name alone. Plenty of times I’ve seen names that look good be bad, names that look bad be good, and reasonably successful false claims. Even if we find out that the Ed and Cecil analogs are both anti-town, it doesn’t necessarily say anything one way or the other about Terry.
As I’ve said earlier in the game, I think any name should pretty much be ignored unless there’s some conflict or overlapping of names. However, names are still a necessary part of any complete roleclaim specifically because of the potential for conflict and forcing potential scum to have to generate and maintain a more substantive claim.
Something about this game is itching me the wrong way, and I think it’s the vote analysis. Originally, I suspected Hal because it seemed like he was reacting all out of kilter vis-a-vis JSexton’s gambit. However, the thoughts that have been posted (including my own) about looking for scum blocks in the voting patterns have me wondering just how subtle the scum are actually going to be.
I no longer have any confidence that Hal is scum–it seems too obvious a play with the fact there’s a large, noticable block of people who voted JSexton yesterday and me today.
I think ok11 is probably closer to the truth, and that the scum are spreading themselves out.
I’m probably going to die at this point, so I’m going to go with my gut–it very rarely steers me wrong and I have no reason to believe anything I say will convince anyone to remove a vote from me.
**
unvote Hal
vote Blaster Master
I got a gut bad feeling about ShadowFacts and Pleonast, too.
OOG: Dude, I’m sorry. As I just said in the previous post, I could have sworn I’d read you were female somewhere, and I’d been using female pronouns to reference you the whole game and that was the first correction I recall reading. If I hadn’t seemed to remember reading that, I would have defaulted to male pronouns. No offense intended.
I’m not sure what your point is here. Does the logic not follow that, if JSexton was a cover for someone, that you’re the most likely candidate? And thus, if that logic is being used against someone else in contention with you again, that those people shouldn’t be under suspicion?
And if you are town? I think it’s unlikely because my primary reasons for finding you suspicious were stated before this whole JSexton thing even became an issue at all and I don’t feel like you’ve in any way adequately addressed my concerns.
What would the blurb be if you are town? That the JSexton train was illfounded in the first place, as I stated Yesterday in no uncertain terms that I thought the motivation for JSexton’s gambit was utterly lacking on both sides.
That is, I don’t think the JSexton train itself necessarily means anything if you’re town. It’s not some sort of logical equivalence such that because your scum alignment implies something that your town alignment has to as well. If you’re town and JSexton is town, it means that, if Hal is scum, the scum didn’t have to do anything to save him because the top two trains, either of which would easily save him, were town. And if hes town, it just means that the top THREE candidates from Yesterday were all town and we need to rethink our approach.
