So now I get an OMGUS vote? :dubious: Whether you’re scum or town, this is a sign of frustration, so I’ll try to be a little more straight-forward with what I’m looking for.
The whole JSexton thing is pretty much me getting ahead of myself because I’m feeling pretty confident at this point that you’re scum. But really, all I want is for you to address the concerns I expressed Yesterday and why I voted for you at that point.
With that, I still have plenty of catching up to do, so…
Just read this post now. Again, I’m sorry, I tend to read and respond in order (although I occassionally will pick stuff right at the end as I’m posting).
Ok, first out of the box – forgive me for my little outburst yesterday. It was an exceptionally crappy day at work, and I took it out on the game. I don’t like playing that way one bit, so I apologize.
Now then, a side effect of that exceptionally crappy day is that I’m miles behind in reading. I’ve quickly skimmed the past 24 hours just to get a feel of where we are, and will now go back and read more thoroughly.
I hesitate to put a vote down this second since I don’t feel I have all the info I need, but I also don’t like not having one on the table outside of the 48 hour mark. The temptation is, of course, to vote for Zerial, if only to save a townie (me, natch). However, I don’t necessarily want to lynch Zerial – like Total Lost mentioned, Z could easily both be town. If I send Z over the top, and he comes back as town, then tomorrow I swing (not to mention the scum nailing someone overnight), then we’re going to be in one major effing hole here.
Bah…back in an hour or two with more cognizant thoughts…
Please see my post 1163 for a rebuttal to this.
Santo: I have no claim extant. I’m “Lone Wolf”, vanilla town.
Blaster: OMGUS, or “hey, there’s a guy who’s got a lot of excuses for being in the background/not voting yesterDay and who just put a vote on me with very little in the way of anything to say about it.” You make the call.
Besides, like I said, I’ve pretty well decided for myself that I don’t think any scum are being protected here–it’s too obvious a play for too little reward. Why even expose one scum covering for another when town’s already well along on its way to harrying the same few people to the ground? My money is on Hal being town along with me, and this whole chase will have wasted a few Days, especially if you guys get convinced that there’s still protection going on and lynch Hal tomorrow.
Okay, I keep seeing this, I’m just not getting it especially since I read Hal’s reaction to JSexton as pretty townie. FWIW, I also read Zsofia’s reaction as pretty townie, but at least I can see that vote as generally being described as “no reason”. I’d really like an explanation for this.
You keep seeing it because everyone is asking me to justify a FOS. It was me listing hunches based on feelings. After some real analysis you’ll notice where my vote landed.
I’m sorry, I’m just not going to bother to restate my case when I’ve made it. I’ve said it before, I tend to point things out as I see them and then just vote. Sometimes I don’t do as much pointing out when I’m stuck playing catch up a lot. If you want, I can relink my reasons and clarify, but I’m not going to restate my whole case.
As for my “excuses”, they’re not. I’ve said before that I think it’s outside the spirit of the game to use real life reasons to try to avoid in game suspicion. Do you think I’m reading along and not posting just because I want to pretend I’m not reading?
And, FWIW, I only didn’t vote Day One, and that’s because I completely forgot I’d had plans to go out of town until the night before I did.
Can we get an official vote count?
I’m happy with my vote for Zeriel. I believe he’s scum. Even if he’s not, we’re getting good information from the voting records. And I think I see something in the voting pattern of ToDay. I think that after I crunch the numbers Tomorrow, there should be a couple players who stand out.
It appears that Day 3 has been running 81½ hours and you’ve only had one official Vote Count. You’ve been incredibly patient. So, I think you deserve another.Zeriel : 6 (Kat, Boozahol Squid P.I., Pleonast, ok11, amrussell, Blaster Master)
Hal Briston : 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger77, Fretful Porpentine)
Boozahol Squid P.I. : 1 (Santo Rugger)
ShadowFacts (Hero from Sector 7G)
Hero from Sector 7G : 1 (Total Lost)
ok11 : 1 (One and Only Wanderers)
Blaster Master : 1 (Zeriel)That’s the vote standings, here on the Dope, at the halfway mark of Hour 82 of the Third Day.
I’m, on the other hand, no longer happy with my vote for Zeriel. Here’s what I said about him yesterDay:
ToDay, my main suspect was OAOW. I ended up unvoting, and going with Zeriel instead, because it was clear that either him or Hal would get lynched, and I thought that between the two of them, Zeriel is likelier to be scum. I also thought that banning Zeriel will give us more info regardless of his alignment. But now I’m starting to think Zeriel is town, so I don’t want to keep my vote on him. If his sn is really “Lone Wolf,” then it’s probably a reference to “Fretful Porpentine,” who was town in M2. For some reason, that little detail made all the difference for me, though I do realize he could have made that up.
**unvote Zeriel
vote One And Only Wanderers **
My case against OAOW, to which I don’t really have anything to add, except that he said he’d reread the posts by/about Hal and Zeriel, but he didn’t comment on them yet again toDay.
I really hope that everyone re-thinks their position and considers voting for OAOW. Hopefully, there’s still time.
What OAOW’s alignment will tell us:
If he’s scum
Then Hero From Sector 7G is less likely to be scum, because OAOW voted for him on Day 1, and it’s less likely that scum would vote for each other right off the bat.
If he’s town
Then I realize it makes me look really scummy, but so be it.
So, there’s not much info to gain from OAOW’s ban. But I think he’s scum, so it’s worth it.
I’m very sorry that I haven’t been around, work has been busier than expected.
Amrussell, thats a big fat mea culpa. I went to look for my response to JSexton, and couldn’t find it. I know I worked on it, and I went through the last portion of Yesterday thinking he was ignoring my reply. So I wrote him off.
Here’s another take on Yesterdays vote record:
649, Kat votes Zeriel
663, amrussell votes Zeriel
672, Zeriel votes ok11
694, Pedescribe votes Blam
704, Oredigger votes Hal
709, Zsofia votes Kat
713, Hal votes ok11
720, Hal unvotes ok11
724, JSexton votes ok11
727, Hal revotes ok11
732, Zsofia unvotes Kat and votes ok11
733, Boozy votes JSexton
736, Jsexton unvotes ok11 … and now the proverbial excrement hits the rotary air relocation device.
ok11 (3) Zeriel (2) Blam (1) Hal (1) JSexton (1)
738, Zsofia unvotes ok11 and votes JSexton
749, Santo votes JSexton
755, Rapier votes JSexton
768, Mhaye posts a vote count:
JSexton : 4 (BS PI, Zsofia, Santo Rugger, Rapier42)
Zeriel : 2 (Kat, amrussell)
ok11 : 2 (Zeriel, Hal Briston)
Blaster Master : 1 (Pedescribe)
Hal Briston : 1 (Oredigger77)
769, Ped unvotes Blam and votes JSexton
771, Ped unvotes JSexton and revotes Blam
774, ok11 votes Blam
777, FretfulP votes Blam
778, Shadow votes Hal
JSexton (4) Blam (3) Zeriel (2) ok11 (2) Hal (2)
785, Total Lost votes Zsofia
791, Hero votes Blam
797, Hero unvotes Blam and votes Zeriel
805, Hal unvotes ok11 and votes JSexton
806, Santo unvotes JSexton
JSexton (4) Blam (3) Zeriel (3) Hal (2) ok11 (1) Zsofia (1)
809, Zeriel unvotes ok11 and votes Hal
813, Pleo votes for JSexton
JSexton (5) Blam, Zeriel, and Hal tied with (3) and Zsofia has (1)
825, Ped unvotes Blam and votes JSexton
826, Shadows first “look at the votes” post. I note this because it could affect the pattern from this point.
833, Jsexton votes Zeriel
JSexton (6) Zeriel (4) Blam (3) Hal (3) Zsofia (1)
836, Mhaye posts an incorrect vote count, missing Heros vote on Zeriel - this gets corrected later.
863, Pedescribe unvotes JSexton, votes Zeriel
864, ok11 unvotes Blam and fake-votes JSexton
874, Nanook votes JSexton
880, Fretful P unvotes Blam
893, Blam votes Zeriel
JSexton (6) Zeriel (6) Blam (1) Hal (3) Zsofia (1) JSexton has the tiebreaker
905, OAOW votes ok11
907, ok11 votes JSexton
913, Nanook votes himself then revotes JSexton
923, Mhaye posts a votecount:
JSexton : 7 (BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, Nanook o/t North Shore, ok11)
Zeriel : 6 (Kat, amrussell, JSexton, Hero from Sector 7G, Pedescrobe, Blaster Master)
Hal Briston : 3 (Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Zeriel)
Zsofia : 1 (Total Lost)
ok11 : 1 (OaOW)
There were no further votes.
Analysis next, this is a long post.
Did I read this right?
Are you saying that you think the Jsexton gambit made as little sense to Town as to scum. That the “train” might not have been scum trying to save a scum-buddy, but might just have been scum laughing their ass off seeing three Town fighting to get lynched (or reather NOT get lynched).
And even though you can see this as a likely scenario… you don’t have a problem voting for Zeriel toDay - thought we might NOT be able to learn anything from that lynch.
And you don’t really see a big problem that the lynch of Zeriel - if Zeriel is Town - would mean Hal might get lynched toMorrow…
But - and it IS a but - if then Hal turns out to also be Town… THEN (and only then?) do we need to re-think our approach???
Please tell me I got it wrong - because that can’t be what you meant???
Either you read it wrong, or I didn’t do a good job explaining my point.
No. I’m saying that he had as no reason to do what he did as town or scum from a motivational analysis perspective. I pointed this out Yesterday, as did at least one other person. However, what he did did look scummy, especially since it turned out badly, which is why I think that many of the townies that voted for him did, and the reasoning that any scum that voted for him feigned. What matters is what the motivation is for the scum to vote for him, did they vote for him with the knowledge that Zeriel was a fellow scum and they were trying to save him, as is this train of logic states, or do they have some other motivation.
Given that I think Zeriel is scum, I think it is possible, and in fact likely that they were trying to save him. However, my reasons for voting for Zeriel are independent of this voting pattern, and I’ve already stated that he is the person I find most scummy even without the voting patterns, just like I did Yesterday. However, there is the possibility that Zeriel is not scum, which means any scum voting for JSexton did so for some other motivation besides protecting him. While I think that is an unlikely scenario, it is not one that can be ignored.
IOW, I want to lynch Zeriel because I think he’s scum, the potential to find information based upon his alignment is an effect of his lynch, not a cause.
I think this dichotomy is a dangerous one. As it stands, lest new evidence surfaces, either Hal or Zeriel will be lynched, and as such, if the one that gets lynched is town, then of course there’s going to be concern that the other lynch candidate will blindly get lynched Tomorrow.
Quite frankly, I think any conection between JSexton and Hal or Zeriel and Hal is specious at best. The evidence is plain as day that IF the JSexton lynch was pushed by scum to protect one of their own, it must be Zeriel. How anyone can possibly justify that Hal was ever in any real danger, I think the closest he got was 2-3 votes away from taking the lead, is completely beyond my comprehension. Hal was never in any danger, so that just doesn’t make sense.
As such, I don’t think it makes sense to assume that either Hal or Zeriel HAS to be scum to justify the JSexton lynch voting pattern. I think if Zeriel is scum, that’s a very likely explanation of the scum’s motivation, and if he’s not, it could be any number of things possibly including that it doesn’t necessarily have a disprotionate number of scum on the wagon at all, because there simply wasn’t any scum motivation to push it.
No, that’s not what I meant. Let’s assume Zeriel get’s lynched and comes up town (because the motivation question is already answered clearly if he’s scum). I think Hal’s scuminess or towniness is independent of the JSexton voting pattern. If Hal is town, then the top three candidates were all town, and there’s clearly no reason for scum to favor any one of those three lynches over nother. Even if Hal is scum, there’s no reason for them to push the JSexton wagon, because Zeriel was also over him and was town. IOWs, I don’t think Zeriel’s alignment provides any insight into whether Hal is town or scum.
I’ll try to be succinct here. I’m voting for Zeriel because I think he’s scum, and I feel I have sufficient reasoning without the whole information to be gained from his lynch part. I also think that if Zeriel turns up scum, we get some very solid candidates, there’s a high probability that some of the oddly timed votes on JSexton were intended to save him and we should pursue those individuals Tomorrow. If Zeriel comes up town, we don’t get any useful information for dissecting the JSexton vote pattern. I don’t think either result gives us any useful information for determining Hal’s alignment.
Is that better?
Well, to be honest, I haven’t fully caught up, so I don’t think I’ve seen why you’ve voted for him. But still, this reasoning isn’t good enough. You said Hal voted for no reason, but when I read his vote post, that very much looks like a reason. So either, you are smudging him, or you don’t see his vote justification as having sufficient reason. Which one is it?
Fair point, and I think I see where you’re coming from now with some of the later votes. What I don’t get is why isn’t Zeriel included in there anywhere; he was never in less trouble of being lynched Yesterday than Hal was. For instance, the timing of Pleonast’s vote is such that it helped Hal and Zeriel equally. And ok11’s vote technically didn’t do anything, but it also made it so a potential last minute vote switch from JSexton or to Zeriel wouldn’t have jeopardized Zeriel. IOW, no vote on JSexton helped Zeriel any less than it helped Hal, but some helped Zeriel more, so I still think that he’s a much more likely candidate for any potential protective voting by scum.
Oops, I missed this. Actually, that is two votes out of the lead. One vote would tie him, but JSexton would still get lynched because the of the tie breaker, so it would take a second vote to put him in the lead. Thus, the closest he ever got to being lynched is two votes away. Zeriel, OTOH, was tied with JSexton at another point, which put him only one vote out of the lead.
YES! Thanks!
This I got right - and I would really like to hear from anyone else voting for Zeriel and Hal if they really intend to vote for the ofter “lynch candidate” ToMorrow or if it ends here?
I don’t feel that Zeriel or Hal can “prove” the other one being Town/Scum - and I really don’t like the way the JSexton-lynch have been used to make them top-voted toDay 