Cannibalism? You arekinky!
It took you this long to realize that???
Back off, Rugger! This one’s mine!
A mollusca with a bit of a rough side - what a rare treat!
Uh Booz? You don’t happen to have some mead there do you? You would think being **Og **we wouldn’t run out, but invite Hercules over and…
There’s always mead for Og! But drink up, there’s not much time left in the Night, I think.
No, there’s not much time at all.
Games, Games, Games–A Board game MMP
For awhile now, my Boyfriend and I have been going to a weekly game night hosted by a local game store. It’s a cool way to try new things–each week there’s a theme, dice games, card games, board games–whatever. And the store brings games that for people to try. Over the summer, it’s crazy. The place is flooded with kids. Sometimes 100 people show up. When school’s in session though, it’s more quiet. Well, a few weeks ago at an “Advanced Game Night” session, we met a couple of great guys, so we exchanged contact information with a vague, “let’s play sometime.” Less than an hour later, we each had an email with a date to play the next night. These guys are great! Since then, we’ve gotten together three times to play different things-- once at each of our houses. It’s neat. I’ve played the game ranked number one (in the world, I think) by a website whose job it is to rank such things. It was very involved and a but hard to get at first, but quite fun once I got the hang of it. Anyway, I’ve played so many games lately, I think I may start dreaming of them!!
As the players in the greatest game of all filed into the arena for the start of Day 4, their attention was caught by a truly bizarre sight. Over by the Charter House, somebody had set up the Totopoly board for a two-horse race. The winner was clearly Oredigger77; sadly whoever the loser was had taken it badly, and crushed Oredigger’s skull between two half-coconuts.
Oredigger77 aka Emeraldsequence, a Charter Member (Town) has lost his final game.
Over by a freshly-turfed playing field, someone had taught the finer points of holding the ball in a maul, And “maul” was what had happened to poor Santo Rugger, who’s virtual corpse was savagely mauled.
Santo Rugger aka Terry, a Board Doctor (Town), has finally laid down the ball.
They made their way down to the debating area, and pulled out their chairs ready to begin the day’s discussions. As they sat, amrussell’s chair collapsed backwards and sent him tumbling into a deep dark hole in the ground that had been very carefully camouflaged. They rushed over to the hole, fearing that yet another Marianas had been created. This time, they could hear the victim groaning. He was clearly alive, but there was no way to rescue him.
They heard a voice floating up out of the hole. “I’ll be OK,” came amrussell’s voice. “I can climb out. It’ll take me a while though.”
amrussell is still in the game, but unable to participate Today.
What’s the game? Puerto Rico?
Well, damn. Looks like the theories about Nanook having been any sort of killer are out the window. I think this also serves as pretty clear evidence that we don’t have a Vig since the Vig wouldn’t target Oredigger, and Santo was pretty damn unlikely to be anti-town. So, looks to me like we’ve a serial killer as our other PFK.
I have a few other thoughts, but I want to review some stuff first.
Puerto Rico is now number 2. Agricola is pretty new, released last year.
No surpirse here. Go Town!
Well, shit. No vig, probably.
I feel like there might be info hiding in the who-killed-who on Night Two, then, but I’m not sure what. It’s nagging me.
Ok, this is it, maybe.
We’ve had two nightkills each Night so far. If there’s no Vig, then in order to account for Nanooks death, we look at two likely possibilities. His vote for himself didn’t count, and his vote condition snuffed him, or he was NK’d. I’ve been thinking option 1 unlikely, and was assuming that a Vig got him. If it’s likely that he wasn’t vigged, the question of how exactly he died suddenly means something.
Why would an anti-town faction/player target him? Nanook, alive, is a source of chaos. If it’s reasonable to think that an anti-town nightkiller wouldn’t target him, then we have to assume that his condition got him. So where’d the other kill go?
Alternatively, he WAS vigged. Since it isn’t likely that a hypothetical Vig was responsible for either of last Nights deaths, that means we’ve got three killers. And so the question remains, where is that extra kill?
A pro-town roleblocker might know.
There’s obviously other possibilities, but Occams Razor suggests that somebody has info that could lead us to a killer.
While there is the possibility of a pro-town (or anti-town) roleblocker having something to do with all of these deaths, I really can’t see the possibility of a Vig in play. While Nanook would have been a good target for a Vig, I don’t see the purpose of a Vig killing Night One, and neither Oredigger (a confirmed townie) nor Santo (an uncounterclaimed, probable townie role) would have made a good target last night.
What happened to Nanook? Well, he’d be a bad kill for either a Seriel Killer or a scum group, as he was pretty much guaranteed lynch. A Seriel Killer might be slightly more likely to kill him than a scum group, as he seemed to be some weird sort of bomb, something that almost certainly would win faster than an SK. Still, doesn’t seem very likely. Which I guess would suggest some sort of roleblocker.
All right, I’ve argued myself into exactly your corner, now. And our Roleblocker must’ve hit either a killing scum or the SK on Night two.
Huh. That was helpful. An overly long ‘Me too’ post.
Review of Day 3 votes:
1060: Kat votes Zeriel
1062: ShadowFacts votes Hal Briston
1087: Boozahol Squid votes Zeriel
1063: Santo Rugger votes Boozahol
1113: Zsofia votes Hal Briston
At this point, our front runners are tied:
Zeriel: 2 (Kat, Boozahol)
Hal Briston: 2 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
1116: Oredigger votes Hal
1119: I vote Pleonast
1120: Zeriel votes Hal
1122: ok11 votes OAOW
1132: amrussell votes Rapier42
Zeriel: 2 (Kat, Boozahol)
Hal Briston: 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Zeriel)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
Pleonast: 1 (Fretful)
OAOW: 1 (ok11)
Rapier42: 1 (amrussell)
Hal surges into the lead at 1120 and remains there while people put several more candidates on the table. Then:
1142: Pleonast votes Zeriel
1143: ok11 unvotes OAOW, votes Zeriel
Zeriel and Hal are now tied.
Zeriel: 4 (Kat, Boozahol, Pleonast, ok11)
Hal Briston: 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Zeriel)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
Pleonast: 1 (Fretful)
Rapier42: 1 (amrussell)
1160: Hero votes ShadowFacts
1165: I unvote Pleonast and vote Hal
Hal is now in the lead:
Zeriel: 4 (Kat, Boozahol, Pleonast, ok11)
Hal Briston: 5 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Zeriel, Fretful)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
Rapier42: 1 (amrussell)
ShadowFacts: 1 (Hero)
1170: Total Lost votes Hero
1171: OAOW votes ok11
1172: amrussell votes Zeriel
The vote is once again tied:
Zeriel: 5 (Kat, Boozahol, Pleonast, ok11, amrussell)
Hal Briston: 5 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Zeriel, Fretful)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
ShadowFacts: 1 (Hero)
Hero: 1 (Total Lost)
ok11: 1 (OAOW)
1175: BlaM votes Zeriel
Zeriel is now in the lead.
1178: Zeriel unvotes Hal and votes BlaM.
Zeriel: 6 (Kat, Boozahol, Pleonast, ok11, amrussell, BlaM)
Hal Briston: 4 (ShadowFacts, Zsofia, Oredigger, Fretful)
Boozahol: 1 (Santo)
ShadowFacts: 1 (Hero)
Hero: 1 (Total Lost)
ok11: 1 (OAOW)
BlaM: 1 (Zeriel)
1192: okll unvotes Zeriel and votes OAOW.
1202: Hal votes ShadowFacts
1231: Rapier42 votes ShadowFacts
1235: ShadowFacts unvotes Hal and votes for himself
1239: ShadowFacts unvotes himself
Final vote count:
Zeriel : 5 (Kat, Boozahol Squid P. I., Pleonast, amrussell, Blaster Master)
ShadowFacts : 3 (Hero from Sector 7G, Hal Briston, Rapier42)
Hal Briston : 3 (Zsofia, Oredigger77, Fretful Porpentine)
Boozahol Squid P.I. : 1 (Santo Rugger)
Hero from Sector 7G : 1 (Total Lost)
ok11 : 1 (One and Only Wanderers)
Blaster Master : 1 (Zeriel)
One and Only Wanderers : 1 (ok11)
Analysis to follow.
I think Occam’s Razor dictates that we have an SK. First, if we had a Vig and he hasn’t outted himself at this point, he’s playing so incredibly anti-town he might as well be an SK. Second, an SK DID have motivation to kill Nanook, while scum did not. Scum wouldn’t want to kill him because, as was said, he was a guaranteed lynch that wasn’t one of theirs. Hell, the whole town was set up to lynch him, and pretty much everyone would have piled on him and we’d have gone a whole Day with virtually no new information. OTOH, an SK doesn’t care who gets lynched, as long as it isn’t him, and he had no idea what Nanook’s win condition was, so he went into the Night with that level of uncertainty about when he might lose, but with an option that would DEFINITELY not be protected and would remove that uncertainty and he’d be quite sure that the scum wouldn’t double up with him.
So that means, that logic pretty much says that the SK killed Nanook and the scum killed Ped. That means that it’s also likely that, having seen that, the SK might have deduced that the scum were going to take out the masons and, thus, didn’t want to risk doubling up on a kill with them, which means, if I’m right about Night 2, then it’s also likely that the scum killed Oredigger last night and the SK killed Santo.
I’m not really sure if that gives us any useful information as to WHO these people are, but if the scum are taking out Masons starting on Night 2, my guess is they’re playing pretty conservatively, and that means to me, we probably need to start looking at some of the people who have been mostly staying out of the fray, and on that, I did notice something in a review, but I’ll make it a seperate post for clarity’s sake.
For reference, here are links to reviews of Day 2 by ShadowFacts and Rapier42.
Anyway, here are my conclusions:
If Hal is scum, the obvious place to look for more scum is among the voters who swung Zeriel into the lead on Day 3, that would be Pleonast, ok11, and Blaster Master. (Kat and Boozahol Squid are also plausible scum, but not really swing votes, since they voted for Zeriel before it became clear who the vote leaders would be; amrussell is obviously above reproach.)
Looking back at the final vote count on Day 2 with the benefit of hindsight, our Day 3 Zeriel voters are divided evenly between JSexton and Zeriel:
JSexton = 7 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, Nanook, ok11)
Zeriel = 6 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton, pede, Blaster)
Given that the scum knew that BOTH vote leaders were non-scum, I would expect them to spread their votes out. If Hal is scum, I would look for one scum among ok11 / Pleo / Boozahol and one among Kat / Blaster.
Of these five players, ok11 is the one who stands out to me right now: she cast a swing vote at the right moment to tie Zeriel with Hal and then unvoted to place her vote on a third party who had no chance of actually being lynched (and I would expect at least one scum to be lurking among those non-Hal, non-Zeriel voters as well).
But all of this assumes that Hal is scum. If he isn’t, I’d expect the scum to split their votes again on Day 3, all the while laughing themselves silly.
I have no clue WHAT to make of the bizarre last-minute push on ShadowFacts, save that I think Hal would have more to gain by casting a third-party vote if he is scum than if he isn’t, since scum need to be more cautious about avoiding the appearance of self-interest. This is not, however, conclusive.
On my theory that the scum might be laying low, I found this post by amrussell to be interesting about Fretful
This part of his post really hits on a few points that very much concern me about Fretful’s behavior. Voting for me at the time was a very safe place to put a vote, and later she unvoted me and didn’t vote for either JSexton or Zeriel (or Hal for that matter). I think amrussell was right in that it could be significant because we now know that both of those people are town, so perhaps a motivation for leaving a vote off the table was NOT wanting to make a deciding vote at a crucial time that would result in a townie getting lynched.
I haven’t reviewed the other posts she made, but it’s fair to trust amrussell when he says that her other posts on Day 2 mostly concern Nanook. This is something I think I, and a few others, touched on at another point, that I think lots of discussion about Nanook could be a scum tactic for Day 2. They wouldn’t want to be forced to choose between Zeriel and JSexton, but they could keep themselves talking in a very pro-town seeming way by discussing an anti-town element
I thoroughly disagree with leaning town. In fact, I find her pretty damn suspicious, especially in light of Zeriel’s revelation as town. I think the actions on Day 2 ARE very anti-town in that light, and as amrussell mentions, she has very little to go on. I couldn’t agree more with that, because I had absolutely no read on her going into Today. Beyond that, several of her posts are review types, which are good ways of looking like you’re participating without actually putting your opinion on anything.
So, yeah, I find her the most suspicious person right now, and I’d very much like to hear more from her, especially about Day 2.
Ban Fretful Porpentine
Ah yes, I was wondering when my lack-of-vote on Day 2 would come back to haunt me. I don’t have a good excuse, other than that I had a vaguely-townie feeling about JSexton at the time and no real read on either Hal or Zeriel, and I was hoping that if I held off on voting until I had time to re-read the thread I would have a sudden flash of illumination, which never did happen. In retrospect, I probably should have gone ahead and voted for Zeriel, since he was reasonably close to the lead and wasn’t JSexton, but I didn’t like casting a vote for such a flimsy reason.
According to your own review of Day 3 votes, my vote never actually tied Zeriel and Hal. So I don’t know why you’d consider it a swing vote. Using that same logic, your vote, which put Hal in the lead, is equally (if not more) suspicious. The second part of your argument applies equally to you as well. On Day 1, you voted for peekercpa, who wasn’t going to get banned. On Day 2 you got a townie vibe from Jsexton and no vibe from Zeriel and Hal, so you didn’t vote for anybody. Towards the end of Day 3 I didn’t think Zeriel, Hal, or ShadowFacts should be banned, so I put my vote back on someone I consider scum.
At least when I voted and unvoted Zeriel, I clearly stated my reasons, which were based on several factors. You voted for Hal because (1) you wanted the vote “somewhere that it will make a difference” and (2) there might have been vote manipulation, which pointed to Hal being scum. But why Hal, when (as other players already said) votes for Jsexton helped Zeriel more than they helped Hal? You never said that something Hal actually said or did looked suspicious to you, so what made you vote for Hal instead of Zeriel?
Your analysis toDay is based on the assumption that Hal is scum. So basically you think scum tried to protect Hal on Day 2, and then even after people started suspecting that Hal is being protected, they protected him again on Day 3? That seems far fetched to me.