Sdmb mafia

Um, huh? Prior to your vote, Hal had four votes and Zeriel three; afterwards, they were tied. (At least per my review; I’m willing to believe that I made a mistake, but somebody will need to point out where it is.)

How do you figure that, given that my vote took Zeriel, a known townie, out of the lead? What possible motive would scum have for protecting Zeriel?

And no, my analysis doesn’t put a great deal of weight on the reasons you or anyone else gave for their votes, because honestly, reasons are little more than distracting noise. By Day 3, any player can come up with a plausible-sounding justification for voting for any other player. I am looking at voting patterns, which are a lot harder to manipulate or conceal than the reasoning behind the votes. The pattern I’m seeing is that Hal, an early favorite, keeps being edged out of danger as the deadline gets closer. Yes, I do think that scum will swing the vote away from one of their own as often as they can get away with doing it. There aren’t that many of them. Why shound they let someone swing when they can easily persuade the crowd to vote elsewhere? (That said, I no longer believe that scum did much manipulating of the vote on Day 2, because they didn’t need to – they had plenty of townies willing to do their work for them.)

You can’t be serious… I agree that the vote records are important - but you say “reasons are little more than distracting noise”. I can’t believe you mean this. Not giving a reason is IMO very anti-town and when we need to analyse the vote records REASONS are very important.

I think you are missing the fact that the last 30-40 hours or so in both Days were very quiet. It didn’t seem like scum were moving in and protecting anyone… I still don’t see the reasoning behind the “if Zeriel is town then Hal is scum”. I can see that someone has been voting Hal and giving understandable reasons (note: REASONS!!) for doing so - but this “scum-protection-voting-theory” is just not doing Town any good: First JSexton was mis-lynch, then Zeriel - I don’t know if a lynch of Hal would be a mis-lynch, but I would really like to see more substantial reasons then: Zeriel turn up Town!

I never said that people shouldn’t give reasons for their votes, or even that we shouldn’t look at those reasons. What I am saying is that giving a reason for one’s vote is not a town tell; it is a null tell. Scum aren’t stupid. Of course they will come up with plausible-sounding reasoning for their votes. Heck, much of the time they’ll come up with better reasons than townies do, because they know they HAVE to put up a reason that will pass inspection by the rest of the players, whereas townies aren’t under that kind of pressure.

For the last 30-40 hours of both Days, townies were in the lead. Why on earth would scum move in and protect someone when doing absolutely nothing guarantees that we lynch town?

I never said that if Zeriel was town, Hal was scum. The fact that I haven’t voted for Hal should make it obvious that I think there’s a very real possibility that he’s town. I said that IF Hal is scum, I find certain votes on Zeriel suspicious, and if he isn’t, the real scum probably voted for Zeriel and Hal in about equal numbers, and they are probably laughing their asses off right now.

OK, so I’m back, and I’d like to apologize for my semi-meltdown yesterDay. I’m normally pretty level-headed in these games, but I got really frustrated there. The time away has been beneficial and I’m now ready to play without flipping out :smiley: I’m not going to delve deeply into why I was frustrated, because it revolves around me being Town being falsely accused of scummy behavior when I was busting my hump for the good guys and that, of course, is unprovable. I’ll answer questions if anyone feels it is necessary, but I don’t see how it will be productive to dwell on it.

Anyway, I’m sure I’ll take some heat for that little episode, and perhaps deservedly so. For anyone who is thinking of voting for me over that, all I ask is that you review the record, and you will see very clearly that it has not been me who has been misleading and mischaracterizing other players.

And finally, one thing I hope can be put to bed now is the notion that I ignored **Zeriel **in my initial vote analysis because he was scum and I was protecting him. So much for that nonsense.

As for toDay, I’m not sure what I will be doing yet. I still think there is a good chance **Hal **is scum, and I also think there is an even better chance that **Hero **is (he certainly behaved that way yesterDay). But I am concerned that I might be developing tunnel vision, so I need to step back and re-evaluate.

OUT OF GAME
Okay, well, sorry for intruding on here, but if anyone can spare being a sub or two…because that’s how many I need in my game on my boards.
I need (maybe) two subs. One for sure and a possible second one.

http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi

If anyone can spare subbing in, I would be grateful. Cross posted to the forbidden thread.

/OUT OF GAME

I’m sorry; you’re absolutely right about my vote tying things up between Zeriel and Hal. But that doesn’t change my interpretation that it wasn’t a swing vote. I consider swing votes to be the ones that put a different candidate in the lead, and after my vote Hal was still in the lead because he reached 4 votes first. So if I applied your definition of “swing” votes, your vote would be considered one too.

Your vote didn’t take Zeriel out of the lead, because he wasn’t in the lead to begin with. Or am I missing something? I agree that scum wouldn’t protect Zeriel, which is why I never said that people voting for Hal yesterDay were protecting him. And why is the fact that Zeriel turned out to be town relevant? It’s not like you placed your vote specifically to take “Zeriel, a known townie, out of the lead.” You placed it to get Hal banned, and he may be town too. And even if he’s scum, the other scum have various motives to vote for him (e.g. bussing, or simply spreading out their votes among various candidates).

So your theory is that Hal is scum, and other scum have been voting in such a way as to make him lose the lead. Except on Day 2 Hal wasn’t an “early favorite.” So if you really used that logic for your vote, why did you think that Hal, and not Zeriel, was being protected?

Now you’re saying

And that

This is basically negating your previous theory. What made you change your mind? And if you think scum didn’t really manipulate votes on Day 2, why do you think they were the ones “protecting” Hal on Day 3?

Zeriel and Hal were tied for the lead. If I were scum in that situation, I would KNOW that Zeriel was town. Now, you’re quite right that I might also know Hal to be town, and in that case, I might very well vote for either of them. If I knew Hal was scum, however, it’s much less probable that I would have voted for him when I could just as easily have manufactured a reason to vote for someone else, particularly Zeriel.

Your point that scum have motives to vote for scum is well taken – but they have every reason to avoid doing so when there is a viable non-scum candidate and the two are running very close together. That is precisely the situation where voting patterns can tell us a lot.

Well, by “early favorite” I mean that he was one of several people who might plausibly have emerged as a vote leader early on Day 2, not that he was necessarily #1 at any point. Note, also, that I didn’t think you could tell whether Hal or Zeriel was being protected based on Day 2’s voting patterns alone. I initially voted for Pleonast (post 1119), who might plausibly have been protecting either of them.

Later on Day 3, as more people started to cast votes, I saw what I thought might be a deliberate attempt to deflect an early lynch train on Hal, and at that point I decided, based on Day 3’s voting patterns, that my bet was on Hal rather than Zeriel. (See post 1165.) For what it’s worth, things after that unfolded precisely as I would have expected them to unfold if Hal were scum. (If nobody else had voted for Zeriel after I voted for Hal, I would have been seriously rethinking my vote by Day’s end.)

I hope this clarifies my position, even if you don’t agree with my reasoning (hell, I’m not sure I agree with my reasoning…)

OMGUS!!!

Seriously, take a step back from the game. We’ve had two days in a row that little to nothing has happened at 48+ hours. To me, this suggests that scum are sitting on the sidelines and getting a kick out of this.

The analysis of Fretful is fresh and is making this game interesting again. YesterDay was a dreary boring hellish day. You can attack me for finding you suspicious if you like, but I’m not going to bite.

Actually, that makes sense, so thanks for the explanation.

Now, I’d like to go back to what I’ve been saying during most of Day 3. I think OAOW is scum. So once again **
vote One And Only Wanderers**

Wow. No one’s calling for my head. Yet.

I’ve been occupied most of the weekend. Will make an attempt to reread stuff tonight, but don’t know how far I’m going to get.

Yeah, I really went all out and attacked you there. Better watch out, I might say “crap” again. :rolleyes:

Who the hell killed ShadowFacts and replaced him with a prick, anyways?

ebwop: :wink:

Will someone reach two votes today? The tension cuts like a cutty thing. 38 hours in…

Fretful Porpentine: 1 (Blaster Master)
OAOW: 1 (Ok11)

Sorry, guys, my laptop isn’t talking to the internet and I’m pretty busy at work, having a hard time checking in enough.

Voting analysis is all well and good, but when that’s all we talk about it gets really old really fast and I don’t think it’s really reliable. While scum move their votes around hither and yon, townies do too - there’s a lot of targets, and people are swayed by arguments both fair and foul.

I think that while there’s probably at least one scum in the top recent discussees (Hal, Pleonast, ShadowFacts, Boozahol?) that most are hiding in the woodwork. Kat emerges every so often with fairly long, substantial posts - let’s take a look at them. The new look at Fretful is interesting, as is ok11’s revisiting of One and Only Wanderer. Who else is in this game that we’ve forgotten was in this game?

You :wink:

Current Player List:

Amrussell
Boozahol Squid, P. I.
Blaster Master
Fretful Porpentine
Hal Briston
Hero from Sector 7G
Kat
Ok11
One and Only Wanderers
Pleonast
Rapier42
ShadowFacts
Total Lost
Zsofia

I have not caught up yet, but here are my notes.

PLAYER LIST

Nanook of the North Shore Troll KILLED NIGHT TWO
Kat
NaturalBlondChap Guest LYNCHED DAY ONE
One And Only Wanderers
pedescribe Charter Member KILLED NIGHT TWO
ok11
amrussell Charter Member
Boozahol Squid, P.I
peekercpa Watcher KILLED NIGHT ONE
Hal Briston
Rapier42
ShadowFacts
Blaster Master
Oredigger77 Charter Member KILLED NIGHT THREE
Zeriel Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY THREE
Zsofia
Pleonast
Santo Rugger Doctor KILLED NIGHT THREE
JSexton Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY TWO
Hero From Sector 7G
DiggitCamara Admin KILLED NIGHT ONE
Fretful Porpentine
Total Lost

Colors: Unknown, Town, Scum, 3rd Side
DAY ONE (23 players)

NBC : 6 (Santo Rugger, Hal Briston, Pedescribe, Zeriel, JSexton, Nanook o/t North Shore)
Nanook o/t North Shore : 5 (BS PI, Hero from Sector 7G, Peekercpa, Oredigger77, NBC)
DiggitCamara : 2 (ok11, ShadowFacts)
Hero from Sector 7G : 2 (One and Only Wanderers, Total Lost)
Zeriel : 2 (Kat, amrussell)
Kat : 1 (Zsofia)
peekercpa : 1 (Fretful Porpentine)
ok11 : 1 (DiggitCamara)
No Vote : 3 (Rapier42, Blaster Master, Pleonast)
DAY TWO (20 players)

JSexton : 7 (BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, Nanook o/t North Shore, ok11)
Zeriel : 6 (Kat, amrussell, JSexton, Hero from Sector 7G, Pedescrobe, Blaster Master)
Hal Briston : 3 (Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Zeriel)
Zsofia : 1 (Total Lost)
ok11 : 1 (OaOW)
No Votes : 2 (Santo Rugger, Fretful Porpentine)
DAY THREE (17 players)

Zeriel : 5 (Kat, Boozahol Squid P. I., Pleonast, amrussell, Blaster Master)
ShadowFacts : 3 (Hero from Sector 7G, Hal Briston, Rapier42)
Hal Briston : 3 (Zsofia, Oredigger77, Fretful Porpentine)
Boozahol Squid P.I. : 1 (Santo Rugger)
Hero from Sector 7G : 1 (Total Lost)
ok11 : 1 (One and Only Wanderers)
Blaster Master : 1 (Zeriel)
One and Only Wanderers : 1 (ok11)
No Votes : 1 (Shadowfacts)

And here’s my analysis.

ANALYSIS

Starting player hypothesis: 16 Town, 5 Scum, 2 Third Party. I will also assume third parties will vote like Townies.

Day One hypothesis: scum votes spread uniformly; no need to go any particular direction. (Sides are 23=16+5+2)
NBC: 56/23 votes == 1.30 scum => 1.30 pts for Hal.
Nanook: 5
5/23 votes == 1.09 scum => 0.54 pts for Squid, Hero.
Others: 5-1.30-1.09 == 2.61 scum => 0.26 pts for ok, Shadow, Wanderer, Total, Kat, Zsofia, Porp, Rapier, BlaM, Pleo.

Day Two hypothesis: scum are likely to avoid heat between two Townie vote leaders. (20=13+5+2)
JSexton: 5*7/20 votes 0.75 == 1.31 scum => 0.22 pts for Squid, Zsofia, Rapier, Hal, Pleo, ok
Zeriel: 5
6/20 votes *0.75 == 1.13 scum => 0.38 pts for Kat, Hero, BlaM
Others: 5-1.31-1.13 == 2.56 scum => 0.64 pts for Shadow, Total, Wanderer, Porp

Day Three hypothesis: scum have no reason to jump on Zeriel. (17=11+5+1)
Zeriel: 5*5/17 votes *0.75 == 1.10 scum => 0.28 pts for Kat, Squid, Pleo, BlaM
Others: 5-1.10 == 3.90 scum => 0.43 pts for Hero, Hal, Rapier, Zsofia, Porp, Total, Wanderer, ok, Shadow

Day Four: (14=8+5+1)

Points:
Kat 26 38 28
One And Only Wanderers 26 64 43
ok11 26 22 43
Boozahol Squid, P.I 54 22 28
Hal Briston 130 22 43
Rapier42 26 22 43
ShadowFacts 26 64 43
Blaster Master 26 38 28
Zsofia 26 22 43
Pleonast 26 22 28
Hero From Sector 7G 54 38 43
Fretful Porpentine 26 64 43
Total Lost 26 64 43

Suspicious records, in no particular order: Wanderer, Hal, Shadow, Hero, Porp, Total. I’ll place my vote on one of them after I’ve caught up on reading.

Hmm, another thought crossed my mind.

Players who voted singletons on
Day One: Zsofia, Porp, Diggit
Day Two: Total, Wanderer
Day Three: Rugger, Total, Wanderer, Zeriel, ok

Players who didn’t vote on
Day One: Rapier42, Blaster Master, Pleonast
Day Two: Rugger, Porp
Day Three: Shadow

Players who show up on the above lists more than once:
Fretful Porpentine (2)
Total Lost (2)
One and Only Wanderers (2)
Santo Rugger (2)

And I’ll note that three players are also on my list of suspicious voters. I’ll vote for one of them. And checking the current vote count, since two of them already have votes, I’ll start on the third.
ban Total Lost
I will move this vote to ensure that one of the three gets lynched.