Tell me about it…I got unbelievably bogged down at work (our five-man department is a two-man department this week, and tomorrow it’ll be a one-man department. Wanna take a guess who the man is?), and I come back to find the day over! 
Well, my apologies to all – non-participation isn’t good for anyone in the game.
And now, it’s time to see what the hell happened.
It has come to Og’s attention that people don’t give thanks to Og everyday, but rather wait for special occasions. Beyond meaning that you are all doomed, it also is difficult to find good repairmen to work through the holiday. Thus, the server is not likely to fixed until Saturday morning, and Night is extended as such. I have been assured that the extra long Night will enable some service work to be carried out on the hardware, resulting in a slightly more stable configuration that will remain operational for at least seventy-two hours, although it is unlikely to affect the maximum uptime.
The additional stability cannot be guaranteed for more than one Day, unfortunately.
I’m starting to like Og 
Thanks, Og, much appreciated.
Happy Og-Thanking-Day!
performs ritual sacrifice to Og
The FSM had planned to issue an alert reminding players with Night actions that they have 12 hours to get their actions in. However he’s feeling very generous, so he’s issuing the alert 40 minutes early.
You have 12 hours and 40 minutes before the estimated time of Dawn.
Be warned.
A Turkey Day MMP
It was a fairly uneventful Thank Og’s day in the Hawk + Mouse household. It was just the two of eating of a turkey that looked and tasted surprisingly like a chicken. This isn’t too strange of a development to me. While we generally celebrated Turkey Day growing up, my family is quite small; I don’t think we ever reached double digits in people. I have but one cousin and only one uncle that I have any contact with. My parents and sister are now a couple thousand miles away, my brother is a several thousand more, and my Grandparents are all gone. Thus, I don’t tend to do a whole lot for special occasions. Well, other then Passover which is best spent a couple dozen gentiles. Nothing like substituting “chose me” for “chose us."
Mouse on the other hand is used to shuttling from place to place to make sure she gets all 4 Thanksgiving meals in. She has a huge family* all tightly compacted in central Illinois. If any of them really wanted to get away, they would move south, to Southern Illinois, a good couple hours away. It is “fun” to meet more relatives of your significant other in two weeks then you have of your own in your lifetime. Mouse drew me a family tree once, but it only helps so much. The new circumstances are more of an adjustment for her. The only real solution is to visit her family more, so she can be reminded why she is happy to be a thousand miles away from some of them.
At our wedding, we are going to end up having a bride side, another bride side with some mutual friends and perhaps an entire row of people there for the groom.*
Did you know if you discuss your wedding plans with people they assume you are engaged? It is a fascinating phenomenon.
Meanwhile, Day Five begins with the players re-entering the arena to a couple of … rather gruesome … discoveries.
The first was a steamroller.; you know, those things that Tom used to try and crush Jerry with? It’s not clear who had played Tom in this rather macabre scene, but Jerry had quite clearly been played by Fretful Porpentine – only, unlike Jerry, Fretful was unable to recover from being flattened into a 2D representation of herself.
Fretful Porpentine, aka Normal Al, the Celebrity (Town) has rung down the curtain and joined the Choir Invisible.
The second was the crushed and broken body of a playful feline, found under what was a very large stack of cast iron frying pans, which had collapsed on top of her in an effect rather reminiscent of an avalanche. Excavated with her corpse (which, remarkably, bore nine wounds, any one of which would have been lethal) was a laser pointer.
Kat, aka the Angry Pig, a Member of the SDMB (Town) has shuffled off this mortal coil.
The game is, once again, afoot. Day Five will, as promised, last a minimum of 72 hours, but the maximum possible length is unchanged. We’ll let you know when the sun sets. In the meantime, have at it.
Damn it. I really kind of thought Kat was a decent suspect.
Anyone got an idea as to why there are 2 Night Kills? As far as I can tell, there are no more PFKs left, and based on who got killed each Night it’s unlikely that we’ve got a Vig. Is it possible that scum get to kill 2 people per Night? In that case there would definitely be fewer than 5 scum, to balance things out.
Boozahol Squid, P.I., why didn’t you vote yesterDay?
Hero From Sector 7G, Kat asked you for a link, and I’d like to see it as well. Back on Day 1, I asked you for a link and you didn’t get back to me.
I’d like to hear some speculation from the numbers-and-game-balance crowd on how close we are to LYLO (or if we’re there already).
Huh. Looks like you’re right. I thought I apologized to Rapier in post 245 but on a re-read the post is more directed at Hal. :smack:
Sorry I mis-read your post Rapier.
I’ve been pondering the numbers pretty hard and I’m left pretty confused, but I’ll lay my thoughts out and we can try to figure out what’s going on.
As we discussed early in the game, I think the openning color is pretty clear that there’s only two PFKs. Beyond that, a third PFK along with a reasonable scum faction (4-5) would put the town at such a massive initial disadvantage that we’d have almost no chance to pull it off. Further, if there IS a third PFK and he’s a SK, and we don’t have a Vig, then that means we’d have to eliminate 7-8 non-town elements with only Day lynches and two anti-town killers at night, which means that we’d have no chance at all without the anti-town elements taking out eachother. So, basically, I think we pretty much have to eliminate an SK from a balance standpoint, otherwise this whole game was really just to see whether the PFKs or the scum win.
There is the possibility also that the scum might have a second kill. I find this one difficult to swallow as well. First, it would have to have some sort of balance because two Night kills is just WAY OP otherwise. Maybe there’s something that prevents them from doing it in some cases, but that hasn’t happened yet, so I doubt that. It’s also possible that it’s balanced by the scum having a much lower number, like perhaps 2-3 instead of 4-5. There is some evidence to support that, namely that we haven’t killed any scum either through lynches or Night kills (and a Vig or SK is not terribly unlikely to have taken one out by now). The only thing is, I still don’t like that from a game balance perspective because it’s just too much of a wildcard. Is the extra kill limited to a specific scum member? If so, and he dies early, the scum are now at a massive disadvantage. If he lives for a long while, the it eventually gets to be too powerful. So, I think this is more likely, but again, not too likely from a game balance perspective.
So, as Sherlock would say, once you’ve eliminated the impossible whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. IOW, I think we most likely have a Vig, and I think the kills we’ve seen last Night actually demonstrate that. So, let’s look over the kills each Night.
Night 1: Peeker and Diggit. Diggit had claimed Admin, but if I remember correctly, Peeker made a veiled claim and was under some suspicion. Diggit would have made a good choice for scum, while a compulsory Vig might have targetted Peeker.
Night 2: Pedescribe and Nanook. Pedescribe is a pretty clear and reasonable choice for scum, while Nanook wouldn’t have been because, as it stood going into the night, we were probably going to lynch him the next Day. We also clearly said, if we have a Vig, he should take out Nanook. A third-party PFK might take him out, but I just can’t see scum targetting him when he’s a pretty clear non-scum lynch target the next Day, so I think this pretty much sinks the scum-extra-kill idea.
Night 3: Oredigger and Santo Rugger. Considering the scum almost certainly took out a mason the Night before, it’s reasonable to assume they took out Oredigger here. It’s also reasonable to assume that a Vig wouldn’t kill him, for obvious reasons, and that an SK would see they were targetting masons, and would target someone else. As for why either an SK or Vig might target him, it’s hard to say. Maybe a Vig thought his whole “the Day will last at least 12 more hours” was just too safe of a call and that he was lying. Maybe an SK thought he was reasonably confirmed enough to be a good target to kill because he was unlikely to be lynched.
Last Night: Kat and Fretful. This one is hard to decipher, as I pretty much expected amrussell was dead meat. Scum might have passed on killing him if they feared there might still be a doctor out there, but then there really isn’t a good explanation for why Kat was targetted. I think Fretful’s claim was reasonable (FTR, when the Day was cut short, I was actually planning on unvoting her and voting OaOW), so then was Fretful killed by an SK thinking the scum would kill amrussell and the scum killed Kat or was Fretful killed by the scum thinking amrussell was protected, and Kat was killed by by a suspicious Vig? I think the latter scenario is a little more likely because I don’t know why scum would go after Kat because she was good cover for them unless they were more worried about an SK or Vig than about cover.
So, the only question left would be, if we have a Vig, why hasn’t he claimed? I can think of a couple reasons. First, up until OaOW was lynched, the scum would have most likely thought we had an SK, which is a distraction because they need to find an SK and kill him. Second, a Vig claiming really wouldn’t have been any good. It wouldn’t have gained us any information, since all but the Night 1 kills are pretty obvious as to who did what, and a Vig claim is indistinguishable from an SK claim because either can fulfill on a promise to kill a particular person.
So, while I think most of the kills probably look a little more SK in nature, I think game balance and, of course, the openning color make that a pretty slim possibility, so I think a Vig is most reasonable; but it is extraordinarily unlikely to be an extra scum kill. And, while this sounds bizarre, I think this is really good news for us.
First, regardless of whether it is a Vig or SK, this killer is now easily the most dangerous town element in the game to the scum. If it is an SK, the scum may be close to winning, but if they don’t take out the SK, they lose. If it is a Vig, we have two pro-town kills and that the scum may or may not be able to manipulate a lynch, but a Vig kills whoever. Second, because either type of killer is much more dangerous to the scum, it means that any pro-town confirmed player (like amrussell) is relatively safe now because the SK or Vig pretty much has to die before we reach LyLo. This means we also have a pretty good idea of where we stand and that there’s probably five scum left (though four is also possible) and not something counter-intuitive like 2-3.
So, I think we’re most likely at 6-5 (unless I counted wrong), but we could be at 7-4. So, most likely we’re at LyLo, but we may not be.
If by some chance we do have an SK and not a Vig, then the game is essentially over if it’s 5-5-1 and it’s just between the scum and SK who wins. The only way we’d have a chance to win then is if we lynch scum, and the SK hits scum Tonight, so we’re either 4-3-1 or 5-3, but we’re still in a LyLo situation Tomorrow.
If we have an SK and it’s 6-4-1, we still almost certainly lose if we lynch town, but lynching the SK would put us at 5-4 Tomorrow, so lynching an SK at this point isn’t a mathematically a mislynch, but it doesn’t help us at all either.
So, yeah, a lot of rambling, but bottom line, I think we’re most likely at 6-5, so we’re probably at LyLo.
Well, yesterDay ended shortly after I posted my case against Hero, which was in this post. He responded to that with the following:
Hero, this post perfectly exemplifies why I think you’re scummy. You completely ignored everthing in my post where I showed you were lying about and/or misrepresenting me, then repeat the same accusations at me again. It takes brass ones, I’ll give you that. Please everyone read the post I linked above and read this response. They speak for themselves.
Vote Hero from Sector 7G
Why wasn’t your linked post directed to me? If your arguments had any merit you’d be willing to let your points stand on their own. If you wanted me to refute them you would have actually addressed me. Instead you plead to “the town” to follow your lead.
You aren’t hunting scum anymore. You’re willing to drive the town over a cliff to resolve a grudge. Personally, I think this is scummy but I realize our back and forth has gotten to heated and I no longer am impartial.
If Blam is right we are at LyLo. Not only don’t I want to be lynched, but I don’t want to be remembered as the fool that lost this game for the town. Please take a step back and get some perspective. I don’t know your orientation, and some of the language you have used really reads as scummy to me. Your arguments against me are a glorified “oh my god you suck” argument. Instead of pausing and reflecting on your own behavior your are attacking me for questioning it.
Well, you can add one more to that count of ‘town’ that you are calculating with guys.
I’m just coming on in to say that I’m part of the game. Pro town lurker who started outside the game, then had the option of coming on in after a certain amount of time had elapsed.
Since the very start of the game, I have been lurking especially hard at Hero. His recent actions haven’t cut my suscpicions at all, and as I must pop into the game today or risk death, I’m going to get in my vote before going and tailgating.
Vote Hero From Sector 7G
Gah. EBWOP
Vote Hero From Sector 7G
Haha. Wow. Now I expect Abraham Lincoln to pop in and vote on me.
I don’t know how to respond to this expect with 
(bolding mine)
Hero, my little frustration episode was a long time ago. It’s past, over and done with. I took several (calendar) days off from the game and came back perfectly calm and reasoned. So can you *please *stop beating this horse - he’s all bones and gristle now. I have no grudge against you, I’m not behaving wildly, I don’t need to step back or reflect on anything. I’m pointing out all the many ways in which you have lied and or misrepresented me, behavior which I think is scummy. I have linked to the posts in question and quoted you extensively. If you really are town, then perhaps your time would be better spent trying to refute my accusations, instead of trying to make me out to be some kind of out-of-control poster, which I am not.
That’s the thing though. You really didn’t mention Zeriel until pressed. I’m not lying. You really did lose your cool and swear at us. I’m not lying. A lot of your posts are appeals to the town, rather than directed at me. I’m not lying.
The JS thing was wrong. You got me there.
OK, sure, let’s go over this one more time. In my very first post where I mentioned voting irregularities, I stated the following:
I was very upfront about who I was initially looking at and why. Nothing secret or nefarious about it. The following day, you said my argument didn’t make sense because I wasn’t including Zeriel. So what was my response? I compiled the voting record, including Zeriel, and then later explained why I didn’t think **Zeriel **was being protected. And finally, and maybe you forgot this, Zeriel turned up Town. So she obviously wasn’t being protected by a scummy me or anyone else. So you didn’t find me out or catch me in anything. Can we agree on that now?
I really did lose my cool, yes. That is the absolute truth. However, as I showed above, I did not swear at you. I swore - once! - and not directly at anyone, but in response to **Zeriel **suspecting me of a ludicrous labyrinthine conspiracy when I was, in fact, trying to help her. There is no pattern of swearing at people who voted for or disagreed with me. I proved that as well above, yet you keep repeating it - it is a lie.
I’ve never contradicted you about this or accused you of lying about it - I don’t understand what you’re talking about, in fact. My posts are for everyone to read. Just because I don’t directly address you does not mean they are not intended for you to read and respond to. Can you explain why this is important? I honestly don’t get it.