FWIW, I thought you aplogized in post 245 too. shrug
Well, hi there. Could you elaborate more on the mechanics of your role? When you say “risk death” if you don’t choose to unlurk… how risky?
ShadowFacts, I reread your case against Hero from yesterDay, and I have a few questions.
In post 1163 you say:
- Hero’s interpretation of Day 2 votes is overly simplistic, because it focuses on the end result.
- The last 3 votes for JSexton don’t matter as much because the first 2 were cast by non-scum players, and the third didn’t make a difference.
- After amrussell’s post, “Hal (and Zeriel, yes) began to catch up and close the gap. So a few more votes were needed to seal that deal. And seal the deal they did.”
Can you elaborate on what you say in part 1 of my summary? Throughout Day 2 Zeriel either had more votes than Hal, or when tied with Hal got that number of votes earlier than Hal. So then why is it simplistic to say that Zeriel was always in greater danger than Hal? Also, what you say in the 3rd part about the last 3 votes kind of contradicts what you said about them in the 2nd part. So do you think there was no scum motivation behind the last 3 votes, or that scum had to cast a vote to ensure that JSexton got banned?
I don’t really see a “complete explanation of the Zeriel issue” in that post. You briefly acknowledge that Zeriel was in danger of being lynched as well, but it doesn’t really show why you didn’t think scum were protecting Zeriel. In post 1400 you say,
Could you link to the post with your explanation? In post 1400 you also say that Zeriel turning up town shows that no one was protecting him. But back then you didn’t know he’s town, so that couldn’t have been a factor in you deciding he’s not being protected.
ok11, while I am happy to answer any and all questions put to me, I do feel like we’re stuck in a bit of quicksand on this issue, and it seems to be completely overtaking all discussion. But if it helps people see my case against **Hero **more completely, so be it…
“Can you elaborate on what you say in part 1 of my summary?”
Yes, I can. After I began discussing this after **JSexton’s **lynch, **Hero **said this in post 1074:
He was looking at the end of the voting, and not the middle, which was when I noticed something odd and began posting about it. My point was that you cannot just look at the end, you needed too look at it in sequence and in context.
*
“So do you think there was no scum motivation behind the last 3 votes, or that scum had to cast a vote to ensure that JSexton got banned?” *
I’m not seeing the contradiction you’re talking about, but I’m going to try to answer this anyway. Of the last 3 votes on JSexton, one was Town, one was PFK, and one was unknown (you), so at the time when I posted that, when we didn’t know **Zeriel’s **alignment, only yours could possibly have been scum trying to save Zeriel. Now we know that **Zeriel *was Town, so it’s moot anyway. Does that answer your question?
*
“I don’t really see a “complete explanation of the Zeriel issue” in that post.”
This is it, and it’s pretty much a rehash of what I just said above (or vice-versa, really), so it may not satisfy you, but nevertheless is what I was referring to.
Considering that no one is talking at all, I’m going to stay on this topic a little while longer.
Thank you for your answers. Now rather than not understanding your Hero/Zeriel explanation, I understand it but don’t agree with it. It’s not just at the end that Zeriel was the second-leading candidate. Looking at your vote sequence in post 1078, Zeriel was always the second-leading candidate. As a result, even if you only look at the beginning of the sequence, he still fits your protection theory better. I understand that initially you only focused on JSexton and Hal, but I’m surprised that even after post 1078 you didn’t acknowledge that Hero has a point.
The contradiction I’m seeing is that first you tell Hero that the end of the vote sequence isn’t important, and you’re not seeing anything in the last 3 votes. But then you immediately use those 3 votes to try to prove your point that the scum didn’t want to let “Hal (and Zeriel, yes)” close the gap with JSexton. IOW, you’re saying that there was still manipulation/protection at the end of the vote sequence.
So I’m still not really satisfied by your explanation, or your case against Hero. By the same token, I’m not really happy with Hero’s case against you, particularly with the whole cursing thing.
I’ve been trying to defend myself against Shadow, not make a case against. My position is more in align with post 1308 from yesterDay.
Now that the crosshairs have focused on me this feeling is confirmed. No-one is even talking on a day where scum can safely rally to protect their own. Scum are going to win this game without raising a finger to the keyboard.
Well, you’re right about the lack of discussion, so I’m happy to continue.
Let me try to explain, as I think you are misunderstanding me: as I stated upfront, I initially noticed what I thought was some protection going on because I already found Hal suspicious (and had voted for him). So initially I wasn’t really paying attention to Zeriel. Next day, Hero says “Hey, you didn’t take Zeriel into consideration,” so I said “OK, then I’ll do that.” I did another analysis that included Zeriel. It showed that, indeed, Zeriel and Hal had both been garnering votes and getting close to JSexton, who would then get another vote when it got close. So, at first blush, maybe Zeriel was being protected and not Hal, as I thought. But after looking at all the voting for that Day, it became clear that 2 out of the final 3 votes for JSexton that kept him ahead of Zeriel were not scum, which to me meant they weren’t protecting Zeriel at the end of the voting, so they probably weren’t in the middle. Is that clearer now? I think it might help you to realize that I never said that the “end of the vote sequence isn’t important,” just that it didn’t indicate what Hero thought it did. That “not important” is your own language.
Even if you don’t agree with me re: Zeriel (about whom I was, I must repeat, proven right) there’s more to my case against Hero. You just mentioned the swearing thing. And Hero himself just admitted above that I was right about what I said about him regarding his criticisms of my defense of JSexton. (That’s a mouthful).
What is my (scummy) motivation for calling you out on overlooking Zeriel? I always thought it was my duty to question other players arguments. You proceeded to get aggressive and angry in return, which reinforced my suspicion. I went from memory when talking about JSexton, and made an error there. But the rest of my points stand.
Let’s see if changing the topic can get more people to participate. I’m having trouble understanding the game setup. Could we discuss it a bit further? Blaster Master’s analysis is logical, but I have a hard time believing it. I agree that there’s probably no SK, but to me a Vig seems unlikely as well. I can see a Vig taking a risk on Night 1 and targeting a claimed power role. But after being wrong, it seems unlikely that a Vig would take that risk again on Night 3. Once bitten, twice shy.
I’d also like to know what others think about Darth Sensitive. I wish he told us more about his role. To me it’s unclear whether he can participate in the discussion with us, or if he can unlurk only long enough to cast a vote. Hopefully, he comes back and shares some more info with us, such as his s/n and role conditions.
Until he explains further, I don’t really trust Darth Sensitive’s claim for several reasons. First, “lurker” isn’t on the list of roles. Second, Darth Sensitive wasn’t on the player list at the start of the game. I realize that Og could have been keeping him a surprise, but in that case I’d expect Og to still add him at the bottom of the list (e.g. he could have said “Darth Sensitive will step in if necessary,” in which case the rest of us would think he’s simply a sub). Third, I can see Darth Sensitive being a Sock Puppet.
Hmn. Wouldn’t a sock puppet have to echo the opinion of someone else…
Vote Count:
Hero from Sector 7G 2 (Darth, Shadowfacts)
Well, I certainly expected to be dead at this point. I think Blam’s scenario of the scum WIFOMing a doctor is probably the best explanation; the alternative would be that they felt their victim had a good chance of being a power role, and I don’t really see anything from **Kat **or **Fretful **that would suggest that.
Regarding the two kills/night - again, Blam’s process of elimination is persuasive, but it would suggest that we have a compulsory Vig. Every night, one of the victims has been under suspicion, which suggests a town motive for killing. (If this is the case, I should probably apologise to **Santo **for putting the spotlight on him. Sorry dude).
Regarding numbers: I was going to say that if we were at 6-5, and **Darth **were scum rather than town, the game would be over. But that’s silly - presumably the scum count would include the lurker. However, I think **Darth **is more likely to be town - I can see scum having a “Sock” role that activates after a scum dies, but brilliantly we’ve avoided triggering that condition so far. But if **Darth **is town, what does that do to balance? Would the ability of town to replace a dead member balance out two scum kills?
In terms of who is suspicious today, I’m going to have do a re-read, as most of the people I’ve looked at/voted for are now dead. As far as today’s suspects go, I have to say that **Shadow **is looking like another **JSexton **- seemingly suspicous, but actually too obviously so. On the other hand, I really didn’t like Hero’s post 1069 which a) misrepresented me and b) strongly suggested skimming. So of the two, I’m more suspicious of **Hero **right now. But I’m not going to vote for him right now, because I don’t want to create a clear vote-leader.
A distant, yet somehow masculine, scream echoes from beyond the grave. :smack:
One of my buddies on Facebook told me it was the ending, and I could be named “Dude McHasACockiel” and people would still call me she. I suspect he’s right. 
Oh, just ignore her - she’s on the rag again. 
I have to say, if we do have a compulsory Vig and so essentially are getting two kills for the reasoning-price of one, we ain’t doing so good, Town.
I tend to agree with amrussell that Hero seems scummier than Shadow at this point, but I’m still kind of undecided and will hold off on voting for a bit. I’ll try to get one in tonight one way or another.
There’s something to be said for being too scummy. To my eye, the difference between Jsexton and Shadow is pretty clear - J gambled and it backfired, and that was all it took. Shadow hasn’t done anything as hugely overt, but he has been fantastically singleminded in his pursuit of other players… first Hal, and now Hero. In each case he’s gone off half-cocked, without building strong enough evidence to justify his crusade, and responds with more of the same when others point out the flaws in his arguements.
I was waiting for him to acknowledge the points raised by his detractors, instead of arguing them, but it doesn’t appear he’s going to do that. The holes in the cases he’s built are glaring enough to me that I’m past the point of thinking he might not get it. So I’m going to vote to
Ban Shadow.
And when this garners him attention, and even votes, he… keeps plugging away. I’d expect scum drawing this much flak to start backing down, not keep pushing. Monomania strikes me as being much more towny than scummy.
Yeah but worst case scenario we are at 7 town 5 scum, which still puts us in LyLo right now. I would expect scum to be pushing as hard as they can. Instead we see a trickle of votes and no activity. Scum are clearly happy with me being lynched right now.
First, on the Shadow/Hero front, I have to say, I just don’t see either as particularly scummy. I really don’t get Shadow’s case against Hero AT ALL. Hell, Hero wasn’t the only one asking the question about how it was protecting Hal more than Zeriel, I was asking those questions too, as ok11 and at least one other I think. So I’m left wondering, is Shadow just running on his gut mostly, being stubborn and unrelenting as a townie? I just can’t see a scummy Shadow doing that if Hal is town. If Hal is scum, since he was under some early suspicion, he might have started it to try to gain some credit for bussing him, but now is stuck HAVING to defend his original perspective or look really suspicious for revising his perspective.
OTOH, the case against Hero is utterly weak. He’s one of the highest posters here, he’s a new player, he’s been under some amount of suspicion pretty much since Day one, and all that’s really stuck to him is asking Shadow about why Zeriel wasn’t part of his analysis? As I said, I think that’s a valid question now, and certainly was before Shadow’s explanation which, while I mostly understand it, I thoroughly disagree with it. And, as Hero questioned, where the hell is the scummy motivation in that? If Hal is scum, then he might have some motivation for it to try to draw suspicion away from him, but still, his point was logically consistent, so even that isn’t necessary.
So really, the only way I see it being possible that either is scum is if Hal is scum, in which case BOTH have motivation (though Shadow possibly more than Hero), in which case we have such a massive amount of scum manipulation and good fortune that I just can’t buy it.
So it really just looks to me like both are probably townie and like we’re just in one giant cluster@#$^ just like we were with JSexton and Zeriel. I don’t intend to vote for either if it’s avoidable, but if it does come down to a choice between the two, there is more potential for anti-town motivation in Shadow’s actions, so I’d probably vote there.
IMO, and I think this was partially validated by OaOW coming up PFK, that the anti-town elements are pretty much laying back and letting us tear eachother apart. I still think there’s at least a couple scum amongst our lurkers, and with the elimination of two of them last Night, that narrows it down well. Pleonast, ShadowFacts, Zsofia, and Hal are among the bottom (amrussell excepted for obvious reasons). Hal has the fewest posts of anyone left in the game (interestingly enough, tied with Kat and Fretful), but at this point I read his reaction to the JSexton gambit as pretty much a bewildered townie. Zsofia has more posts, but unlike Hal on whom I have some read, I really have no read for her. The other two have made their presence known but they could be one of those “lurking in plain sight” types.
As such, I think it’s likely that there’s at least 2 scum in that group of 4. I’ve already discussed Shadow, and I think he’s more likely to be town than scum. Pleonast has provided some very useful insight, particularly Yesterday, so I have a mostly townie read on him. I’ve also already explained that I at least have a slight read on Hal as townie. I have zero read on Zsofia and, at this point in the game, I find that the scummiest of all. So, I’d probably say Zsofia is now very suspicious to me, with Shadow pretty far back, and Pleo and Hal somewhat behind that. So…
Ban Zsofia
To be clear and succinct, my analysis means that I think we have a compulsory Vig. I think we almost certainly have a Vig, but I also don’t think a non-compulsory Vig would have targetted Night One.
I think it’s extraordinarily dangerous to give Darth any sort of credit either way. We have absolutely nothing on which to base our analysis of him. I do think the numbers, and certainly now that he’s been revealed, mean that we almost certainly have 5 scum, but it just as easily could have been 7-4 coming into Today with him being scum #5 as it is that we were 6-5 and he’s townie #7. On one hand, I can see it as a nice balance for a compulsory Vig in either direction while also explaining the likelihood that we do not have a Doctor. That is, if he’s town, a Doctor is likely to self-protect most of the game. This accomplishes the same thing but is, from a certain perspective, more powerful, because he couldn’t accidentally catch suspicion and be forced to claim early. OTOH, if he’s scum, with a compulsory Vig, it’s entirely possible that the scum would get crippled early. Imagine if a Vig hit 1-2 scum, mostly by pure luck, the scum would be in a much worse position now, even having played well enough to avoid lynches.
I think either scenario, is more or less, equally likely, so I don’t think we should give him any credit or suspicion due to the timing of his arrival. However, because we have no background on which to go on with him, and we have 20x as many posts even from the lowest poster, potentially lynching him at this point is just playing Russian Roulette. So, while I’m not willing to consider him more likely to be town than scum, I still think he’s a poor lynch candidate.
However, I do want to hear a lot from him Today to make up for lost time. He’s made essentially one game post (technically two, but the second was just a coding correction, so it doesn’t really count) in which he votes, but provides no other reason than that he’s been looking at him hard. Considering that I find the current case against Hero severely lacking, and that he hasn’t come in and clarified his reasoning for the vote yet after two days, that looks REALLY bad if Hero is town.
Huh, and here I had thought I had put together the most comprehensive and well-documented case yet presented against anyone in this game to date, complete with links to the posts referenced and extensive source quoting so its easy to see how I drew my conclusions. YMMV. (Also, for the record, while I agree my case against Hal was not very strong and fairly inferential - it started on Day 2, after all - I completely dispute the fact that I have gone off “half-cocked” against Hero.)
Huh, again. I believe I have acknowledged every single criticism of my cases against both Hal and Hero. In fact, I challenge you to find one instance of someone criticizing my evidence and me ignoring it. I’m really surprised that you (or anyone) would say that. Maybe you think because someone finds my case lacking, I am obligated to agree with them? That cannot be what you mean, so you’ll have to explain what you mean by “acknowledging.”
And for the record, my so-called “single-minded” pursuit of Hal and Hero has been for one reason and one reason only: I think they are both scum. If you can think of something better I should be doing than pursuing those I find scummy, I’m honestly open to suggestions, because so far apparently all I’ve done so far in this game by playing as hard as I can is to look scummy :smack:
PS. I feel like I need to add, by the way, that I was right about JSexton, right about Zeriel, and right about Fretful Porpentine. Maybe if anyone would ever listen to me, we’d be in better shape right now. 
Ok, back from the holidays, and I’ve pretty well plowed through the work that has accumulated and read through the thread…so:
Hero? Really? I mean, maybe he’s just having some major (scum) beginner’s luck, but I don’t see him doing a damn thing voteworthy (aside from being alive and unconfirmed this far along into the game).
Inserted on Preview: Yeah, what BLaM said.
I’m figuring it this way – we’re either at LyLo, or we’re going to be there tomorrow if we don’t choose right toDay. And unfortunately, my short list is as short as they get. I know amrussell and I are both town, and that’s about it. My strong suspicion list consists of Shadow, but I’m doing some major second-guessing on him as well.
I’m very skeptical of the odd way that Darth has joined in – as ok mentioned, there is no “lurker” role on the list, and I remember what happened the last time I ignored an unlisted role name popping up in a game with a list (stupid fricking “Killer Moth” in the Batman game).
Everyone else – ach…I don’t fricking know…
So, while Shadow still pings me, I don’t like the way Darth is coming in one bit.
Ban Darth Sensitive