Sdmb mafia

The Game Room
1521

I’m going to go back to this, because it’s a convenient list:

I’ve added Ok11 and Darth into the mix.

Now, here’s where we are. ***If ***we believe all the claims made today (and the accuracy of Hal’s detecting), then our list of suspects drops to:

BS PI, Rapier42, OK11/ Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, (Darth).

and we’ll be looking for 5 or maybe 4 out of only 7.

If we decide we don’t believe Zsofia, then we have 1 more suspect for that group.

If we decide we don’t believe Hal, we also don’t believe in **Pleo **and probably not in Hero, because Hal has been quite specific about their roles - it would be a very bold guess for scum. (NB: **Hero **thinks that his not claiming while under pressure makes it fairly obvious he’s vanilla.). A fake-claiming scum could easily lie about 1 role, but probably not 2.

So it would be really cool if we can put some faith in Hal, because that would shrink our suspect pool. Unfortunately, if we’re at LyLo, we can’t put him to the acid test. One way of testing it would be to see if **Pleo **dies toNight, and what result that gets us. If he came up town power role, we’d gain two confirmed townies. But that doesn’t get us past the question of what to do toDay.

It looks like Total Lost, but I’m not particularly feeling it. OK11, if you feel you believe Hal (and thus Pleo and Hero) you can cross out your Scenarios 1, 3, 6 &7). Does that affect your vote? Other than that, the accusation of non-descript posting applies to a lot of people.

1522

I had a brain spurt this morning, and want to get it posted to see what people think. I suspect it will be a controversial gambit, so don’t JSex me up, please. :smiley: Here it is: I think we might want to ban **Pleonast **anyway. But’s that’s crazy! you say. I’m not sure it is, from an informational perspective. If we ask **Hal **to reveal Pleo’s exact role and then ban him, we’ll get 2 confirmations out of it in either case. If **Pleo **comes up scum, then we know that **Hal **is scum and we bag 2 of them for the price of one. Then we’re really back in it. If **Pleo **comes up with the role that **Hal **revealed, then that confirms both **Hal **and **Hero **as Town, and shrinks the scum pool significantly.

The obvious objection to this is that we might be at Lylo, and such a lynch could cost us the game. My response to that is: 1. We don’t know we’re at Lylo; 2. if we are at Lylo, that’s true of every lynch at this point; and 3. that attitude forces us to accept *all *claims and effectively paralyzes us. If we’re at Lylo, lynching **Total Lost **or anyone else has 2 results: 1. game over; or 2. we’re back at Lylo tomorrow.

I suggest we might want to take the chance to get back in the game. Anyone see a flaw in my logic?

1523

Let’s say we lynch Pleonast and he comes up as a power role. Now we’ve banned a power role for no reason, and lost whatever ability he had (although he might not have any abilities like Celebrity). Can we now really trust Hal? I think the answer is pretty much, but not certainly. First, there’s a (slim) possibility that scum have an investigative role, so Hal could have found out about the role that way. It’s very unlikely, though. Second, scum could have a watcher/tracker type role, so they might know that Pleonast has a night action. If scum have that type of role it might also explain why scum never targeted amrussell (they found out he was protected). I know that both of those cases are fairly unlikely, so let’s just say Pleonast’s ban confirms Hal. That’s great, except at Night the scum will probably kill Hal, and now we’ve only got one person left whom Hal confirmed. If we’re really not at LYLO, wouldn’t it be better to wait and either get an additional investigation from Hal, or let the scum confirm him via Night kill?

1524

If I believe Hal’s claim, then from my POV there are only 6 unconfirmed players left (I’m leaving out Darth because there’s pretty much nothing to go on). I’m not going to risk lynching Zsofia toDay, because it’s too dangerous to lose a doctor. Also, keeping her alive makes it likely that amrussell – our only 100% confirmed player – will not be Night killed (even if she’s scum). So now I’ve only got a list of 5 people: ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and ** Boozahol Squid, P. I.**. If there are really 5 scum, then my chances of picking the right person are pretty good, even if Zsofia is scum.

That being said, I do feel kind of bad about banning Total Lost. If real life circumstances are preventing her from participating more, then there’s nothing she can do. And she did bring up some good arguments (but mainly against Hero, who I think is likely to be town). I also don’t like that my case is almost entirely based on vote patterns, which makes it hard for Total Lost to defend herself. On the other hand, people keep saying that scum are just sitting back and laughing at us. And if scum aren’t pushing our top vote-getters, and they’re not casting throwaway votes, then where are they?

I’m going to think more about this, and reexamine my scenarios in light of Hal’s and Zsofia’s claims, but unfortunately it’s so late in the Day that I’m reluctant to move my vote. Of course if Pleonast comes back and says he’s not a power role, I’ll gladly move my vote to Hal. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though.

1525

First off, thanks for posting that review of Total Lost. I actually haven’t had a chance to review it because of my morning inspiration, but I will after posting this.

I think your objections about **Pleo’s **death not confirming Hal are so incredibly remote that they do nothing to outweigh the benefits of the info gained. I think your point of the scum killing Hal is a good one, though. Given how the kills have been going, if Hal really is telling the truth, he’s likely to be hit. I’ll have to think about that a bit.

1526

PLAYER LIST

Nanook of the North Shore Troll KILLED NIGHT TWO
Kat Vanilla Town KILLED NIGHT FOUR
NaturalBlondChap Guest LYNCHED DAY ONE
One And Only Wanderers Doctor LYNCHED DAY FOUR
pedescribe Charter Member KILLED NIGHT TWO
ok11
amrussell Charter Member
Boozahol Squid, P.I
peekercpa Watcher KILLED NIGHT ONE
Hal Briston Backup Admin
Rapier42
ShadowFacts
Blaster Master
Oredigger77 Charter Member KILLED NIGHT THREE
Zeriel Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY THREE
Zsofia Doctor
Pleonast Power Role
Santo Rugger Doctor KILLED NIGHT THREE
JSexton Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY TWO
Hero From Sector 7G Vanilla Town
DiggitCamara Admin KILLED NIGHT ONE
Fretful Porpentine Celebrity KILLED NIGHT FOUR
Total Lost
Darth Sensitive

Colors: Unknown, Town, Scum, 3rd Side, Claimed Town

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Wow, a lot happened. People jumped on me, but it looks like Hal had my back. Since he called me a “power role”, I’m willing to accept his claim. From my notes, it looks like me have 5 scum out 6 players: ok, Squid, Rapier, Shadow, BlaM, Total. If Darth is actual scum, it’s already game over. He’s at worst a third party and we can’t afford to lynch him now.

Oh,
unban Hero
ban Total Lost
Back to where I was.

In light of my upcoming Night death, my opinions about the remaining unconfirmed players, in order of scumminess:
Total–Definitely scum.
Shadow–Definitely scum. He wants to off me because he guesses what my role is. Lynch him next.
ok–Likely scum. I can’t put my finger on it exactly, but someone needs to look over ok’s posting and votes.
Squid–Likely scum. He’s been playing very unlike the typical Squid. He’s much more aggressive usually. I think he’s holding back because he’s scum. Very lurky for Squid.
BlaM–Likely scum. He’s an excellent player and is still alive. He’s posted some useful insight, but has refrained from going after other players. Very lurky for BlaM. I think the Scum’s excellent play this game can be credited here.
Rapier–Maybe scum. His play has been bothering me, but that probably means he’s Town. :slight_smile:

To potential Night protectors, don’t bother to protect me. Protect amrussell and Hal, they are more valuable to the Town. Hal, a confirmed Townie is more valuable than a known Scum.

And sorry for not being on more, but I’m too busy.

1527

I don’t have time to go back right now and read everything again. but if anyone have a question for me - I’ll be around for the next couple of hours.

I could make a post explaining my votes - but I’m not sure that will change anything right now.

1528

This is disconcerting. If the scum think we are at LyLo, ballsy enough scum will go for the fake claim, which forces our hand. I am not trusting Hal farther than I can throw him right now.

:::drops back to pass, and lets his receivers tear down field:::

BUT we aren’t at a point where we can lynch him to see if his list is clear unless we as a whole think he’s scum. To me, that doesn’t seem unlikely. We are running at the point where we don’t have to much to lose though, and I am wanting to go for broke.

I say that we vote our good buddy Pleonast - and that Hal lets us know the role he found ASAP. If Pleo can claim after Hal, but will still be lynched unless they disagree on his role, in which case we lynch the ‘detective’. We don’t need power roles right now so much as we need more information.

If pleo is scum ==> hal is too. Any vig we have takes out the sheepster. Else we lynch him tomorrow. If pleo doesn’t turn up scum, we have a doctor to get at least one more investigation out of the detective, provided that the game doesn’t end before Tomorrow.

:::lofts a hail mary into the endzone as time expires, hoping to send the game into overtime:::
EXPLANATION: There’s a football metaphor here. If game with 11 men on a side, pointy ball, etc. A hail mary is a desperation play where all the people allowed to catch a pass go to the endzone together and the quarterback throws up a prayer, hoping his team catches it somehow. It is done from a long ways out when down. We are about 60 yards out and down 7. If we can force overtime, the field is shorter since we know more, but we’re probably still playing catchup.

SIDE NOTE: It is 10:06 AM, and OU still sucks!

1529

How the heck did I forget my votes? :smack:

Unban Hero
Ban Pleonast

1530

I don’t know about you guys, but the more certain the Total Lost banning becomes, the worse it looks. 7 out of 12 are now voting for her, not including our one confirmed Townie. Looks to me like there are several scum at least who are happy with that result. I took a look at ok11’s case against her and I don’t see much there.

I think we’re getting screwed here, people. Again.

1531

This will not come as a surprise - but I think so too. My problem is that I’m all vanilla - and that means if we are not a LyLo - then it might be better to lynch me then a power role. I don’t mind making a full claim - if anyone thinks this would be a good thing.

1532

Also - adding on to above. If pleo claims before hal, we lynch em both.

1533

I saw that as well, and I’m trying to maintain an optimistic attitude that scum are busing one of their own.

And to put it out there ahead of time, I’ll say that Pleo is a “downscow”. Meaningless now, but it’ll make sense when the time is right.

1534

I agree that desparate times call for ludicrous measures. If scum are happy for us to lynch TL, then we’re going to lose. In fact, ultimately we’re all going to have to vote for the same candidate just to stop them. Also, and on preview, if Hal and Pleonast are both scum, having Hal say “Pleo’s power is X” and then having Pleo say, “Yes, Hal, that’s right. My power is X. Guess we’re both confirmed then”, won’t give me a whole lot of comfort.
I’m not completelly happy with lynching Pleo though. It’s possible for Hal to be truthful and for their still to be 4 scum on Total Lost. This, from ok11, gives all the reasons not to vote for her (my bolding):

If the theory is that scum haven’t been committing themselves, then there are better candidates.

1535

Well, my idea was to lynch pleo even if they agreed

1536

Here’s another crazy suggestion: if you are a confirmable power role, now is the time to claim.

I think there should be at least one out there, and the more we can cut down the scum pool, the better off we’ll be.

In the meantime, in the interests of confirming someone, and with a due sense of hestiation and foreboding:

unvote Rapier42

vote Pleo

He’s said himself he’s less valuable than a detective who can confirm town.

1537

I just wasted a whole lot of time with practically nothing to show for it. I looked at different scenarios in light of Hal’s claim. If I believe Hal here is my list of 6 unknowns: Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. I applied my assumptions to see what happens. I’ll tell you my conclusion upfront, so you can skip the rest of my post if you’d like. My conclusion is that one (or more) of the following is correct: (1) my assumptions are wrong (2) we have fewer than 5 scum (3) we can’t trust Hal, or at least his readings. I’m going to go with (2), and change my vote accordingly.

Here are the relevant assumptions from post 1435

  1. Day 1, vote count 6: All 3 of Rapier42, ShadowFacts, and Total Lost are unlikely to be scum
  2. Day 2, vote count 1: All 3 of Boozahol Squid, P.I, Zsofia, and Rapier42 are unlikely to be scum
  3. Day 4, vote count 2: Unlikely that both Blaster Master and Zsofia are scum
  4. Day 4, final vote count: Unlikely that both Total Lost and ShadowFacts are scum

Also from the same post:
Day 3, vote count 1: it’s unlikely that both ShadowFacts and Zsofia are scum, even if Hal is town

(a) Let’s use assumptions 1 and 2, and say that Rapier42 is town. Then our 5 scum are Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that both (1) Blaster Master and Zsofia (2) Zsofia and ShadowFacts and (3) Total Lost and ShadowFacts are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum.

(b) Let’s use assumptions 1 and 4, and say that ShadowFacts is town. Then our 5 scum are Zsofia, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both Blaster Master and Zsofia and (2) all 3 of Zsofia, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I. are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if you say that Zsofia is also town, it works.

(c) Let’s use assumption 1, and say that Total Lost is town. Then our 5 scum are Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both Blaster Master and Zsofia (2) both Zsofia and ShadowFacts (3) all 3 of Zsofia, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I. are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if you say that Zsofia is also town, it works.

(d) Let’s use assumption 2, and say that Boozahol Squid, P. I. is town. Then our 5 scum are Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that both (1) Blaster Master and Zsofia (2) Zsofia and ShadowFacts and (3) Total Lost and ShadowFacts are scum. It’s also unlikely that all 3 of Rapier42, ShadowFacts, and Total Lost are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum.

(e) Let’s use assumption 2, and say that Zsofia is town. Then our 5 scum are ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both Total Lost and ShadowFacts and (3) all 3 of Rapier42, ShadowFacts, and Total Lost are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum. However, if either ShadowFacts or Total Lost is town, the problem is solved.

(f) ) Let’s use assumptions 3 and 4, and say that Blaster Master is town. Then our 5 scum are Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Total Lost, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.. Are there any contradictions among the remaining players? Yes, it’s unlikely that (1) both Total Lost and ShadowFacts (2) both Zsofia and ShadowFacts (3) all 3 of Zsofia, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I. and (4) all 3 of Rapier42, ShadowFacts, and Total Lost are scum. So I don’t think that’s the right list of scum.

So if I believe Hal there are only 3 ways I can make my theory work. The following four would have to be scum:

  1. Total Lost, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.
  2. ShadowFacts, Blaster Master, Rapier42, and Boozahol Squid, P. I.
  3. Blaster Master, Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P. I. and either ShadowFacts or Total Lost

Notice that all 3 have 3 players in common: Blaster Master, Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P. I.. I don’t have a strong preference among the 3 of them, but since Rapier42 already had votes on him toDay, that’s whom I’m going to pick

unvote Total Lost
vote Rapier42

I’ll go back and re-read posts by Rapier42, and if I don’t find anything, I’ll unvote him.

1538

I don’t see how you “know” this - you didn’t even think about the fact that the people I didn’t lynch where all town.

With all that’s going on right now I’ll

**
BAN PLEONAST
**

1539

I just realized that 3 is the same as (1) and (2) :smack:
But I arrived at them using different premises, so at least that tells me I’m being consistent in applying my assumptions.

I strongly disagree with banning Pleonast for the reasons I wrote to ShadowFacts. Those reasons were based on Pleonast turning up town. If he’s scum, I’m having a hard time understanding why Hal would stick his neck out to protect him, instead of just keeping quiet. Scum are probably so close to a win that they can afford to sacrifice one of their own.

1540

I’m surprised at everybody voting for Pleo - if we’re at LYLO, is that at all smart? It seems like kind of a “live fast, die young” gambit - why hit somebody who at least one person is claiming as town, when there are other candidates that no claim protects. Sure, Hal may well be lying - but we’re probably in a really precarious position now, so planning long-term just doesn’t seem like the greatest solution to me. I’d be happy to consider a different candidate than I’m currently voting on, but I just don’t think we should lynch a claimed town power role, especially since we think we have a Vig out there.