I’ll vote for anyone we can get consensus on. In fact, if it helps you move your vote from TL:
unvote Pleo
[COLOR=“Blue”]vote Rapier42[/COLO
I’ll vote for anyone we can get consensus on. In fact, if it helps you move your vote from TL:
unvote Pleo
[COLOR=“Blue”]vote Rapier42[/COLO
I want to address this first, because this is a pretty important topic for me. I wasn’t intending to say that IRL was a motivation or an excuse. I consider any usage of IRL things to be meta-gamey. That is, if someone simply isn’t posting, it could be because they have other things that are going on, or it could be that they’re reading along and just not posting. If someone says they have IRL things interfering, I’m going to trust them because I consider it poor sportsmanship to use that as an excuse to cover up lurking, and I’d like to believe that everyone here is a good sport.
That said, IRL obligations limit the amount of contribution and, in some cases, the timing of it, but it has little to no bearing on the quality of the contribution. My point was specifically that you had a similar quantity of contribution to others, but not the same level of quality, at least as I read it. I had no read on you and, in fact, when I was doing my analysis of the lower post players, I completely forgot about you.
This, in my mind, is a bad thing. IMO, a slightly scummy read on someone is still probably more likely to be town than someone who is giving off no read at all. Scum want to blend in, coming off with a pro-town is preferable for them, but very difficult to pull off. So the best way is to do what they can to avoid suspicion. Specifically for vanilla townies, which I’d have to be inclined you’re likely to be if you are one, since you haven’t counterclaimed that I’ve seen yet, and I’d have a hard time believing there’s, as yet another power role out there, the last thing you want is to lay low. The whole purpose of vanilla townies are to put themselves on the line, act as fodder at night to protect the power roles, and be willing to put forth effort to catch scum during the Day.
My assessment of your play has not been consistent with that. Your play seems to have been pretty conservative, which is why I don’t have a read on you. This means you’re likely either a power role or scum. At this point, I’m disinclined to believe you’re yet another power role, so I think it’s the latter.
Yes, you’ve been voting and providing reasons for your votes. But at the same time, so have all of the scum. I want to see people become involved, add to the relevant discussions, investigate people who they think have been operating a little under the radar. I haven’t seen any of this from you. It’s easy for scum to escape suspicion with lots of me-toos because, if it results in a scum lynch, they can twist it to get townie cred, and if it results in a town lynch, they can often twist out of it and blame the originator of the idea.
So yeah, I want to hear from you. Agreeing with people is fine, but I want to see some analysis and reasoning behind why you agree with other people.
Balls
vote Rapier 42
I must be more forgettable then I thought. I did try to show why I believe Hero to be scum and I did try to argue that I saw the JSEXTON-lynch to be a bad move.
I tried to get people off the Zeriel-lynch because I saw it as a “if JSexton was Town then Zeriel must be scum”-agrument that I didn’t believe in.
I know I could have been more active - and I’m sorry for that - but so could a lot of others. You don’t have to think power role with me: I’m vanilla and if we are not at the LyLo getting me lynch right now might be a good thing.
The potential-lynch of me has taken a lot of time and energy toDay.
However if we are at a LyLo - then we really got a problem…
Og (or Og-minion), can we get an official vote count, please?
At the top of the 104[sup]th[/sup] hour of Day 5.Total Lost : 6 (Hero from Sector 7G, Zsofia, Blaster Master, Hal Briston, Boozahol Squid P.I., Pleonast)
Pleonast : 3 (ShadowFacts, Darth Sensitive, Total Lost)
Rapier42 : 2 (ok11, amrussell)
Zsofia : 1 (Rapier42)Thwaps ShadowFacts around the ear with a noodly appendage.
The FSM is an independent entity who is assisting Og in this great task as an equal, and is in no sense to be deemed a minion.
Your assumptions are inconsistent with the available information about the game setup. If you believe Hal and provisionally accept Zsofia’s claim, there HAVE to be five scum. Why? Town had 3 masons, and 4 or 5 other power roles. Combine that with 2 PFKs, and scum having only 4 members is incredibly unbalanced in favor of town. I don’t have JSexton’s formula memorized off the top of my head, but I’d guess that would be have town with at least 50% more points than scum. In order to balance that, scum would need some sort of incredible power which has never been used, or there’s more of them.
There are two ways to settle this imbalance. Either way have more scum (which would have to be 5, since if it were 6, the game would be over) or at least some of the claimed roles are lying and still probably combined with more 5 scum unless ALL the currently untested roles are lying, which just seems to unbelievable to me.
Either way, this means we probably are at LyLo, which means lynching for information is utterly useless.
http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=temp&action=display&thread=85&page=2#6577
But I’m not sure you can just JSexton on the masons in this game. Because they didn’t have a chance to talk and really didn’t work a “traditional” masons…
Huh? You’re looking only at the numbers and not looking closely enough at who is actually voting for Total Lost.
According to the most recent vote count, Hal, Pleonast, and Hero are all voting for Total Lost along with our claimed doctor Zsofia. That means, if we believe all those claims, there’s at most two scum on that wagon, and I sure as hell know I’m not scum either.
Unless all three of Hal, Pleonast, and Hero are scum, which is what a lying Hal would have to mean that saying scum are content to lynch Total Lost is just not accurate.
I think what is MOST telling is the suggestion to lynch Pleonast to confirm Hal and Hero. First, how the hell does it make sense to lynch someone who is probably town at this point when we’re likely in LyLo? And look at who’s on it, Shadow, who was after Hero and Hal for so long with very shakey evidence, Darth Sensitive, who we know absolutely nothing about, and Total Lost, who should admit if she’s town that she’s worth less than a likely power role, and if not, she’s desperately trying to get a townie lynched to save her own neck.
This seems pretty clear to me that Total Lost is being pushed by town, and the scum are trying to find a compelling reason to get a townie lynched. This also means that ShadowFacts is probably scum right along with her.
You make a good point, but since I’m not completely sold on the SK/Vig idea, it still makes sense to me that the second kill is by scum. SK is a third party, right? Og’s opening post says that there are 2 individuals who are third parties, and we’ve eliminated 2 PFKs already. Ergo, no SK. I also don’t think there’s a Vig, because then the Vig went after claimed power roles on Night 1 and 3. I think on Night 3 when we already lost 6 (or 7?) town players, a Vig wouldn’t risk being wrong about a power role. There were plenty of other suitable targets.
So I think the second kill is a balancing element. Perhaps it’s a “win-more bonus” power (like the one Boozahol Squid, P.I. thought Santo Rugger had). It could be based on town lynching town, or on role claims, or who knows what else. It’s also possible that scum have a silencing power which they used on Day 4, or a Sock Puppet. So I think there’s potentially enough out there to balance out both an extra detective and a doctor.
Moving on…I’m sorry but I haven’t had time to look at Rapier42 yet. But in the meantime, I have a question for Total Lost. What do you think about the claims by Zsofia and Hal? (Sorry if you’ve answered this already).
Total Lost and Zsofia, the two of you, as well as several other players, are in the same position with respect to Hal’s claim as I am. IOW, if you believe him then your pool of unconfirmed (excluding Darth) is also 6 people. Do my assumptions seem reasonable to you? If you substitute me for yourself in my analysis, what kind of conclusions can you draw?
FOA, thanks for the lynch.
Second, I’ll even concede that the masons aren’t worth what he scores a 3-man masonry at, so I’ll say 2 instead of 2.5. So let’s add up the current totals and be conservative to see how they work out.
Paranoid Doctor - I’ll say 2.5 instead of 3
Cop - 4
Back-up Cop - 2.5
Watcher - 2
3-man masonry - 6
Unknown power role - 1.5 since I’m guessing compulsory Vig
10 Vanilla Townies - 10
Day Start - 1
I am not counting the PFKs for points for or against because neither had a killing ability.
So, being conservative, the town has 29.5 points. With 4 scum, it would take a Godfather, investigator, roleblocker, and some sort of bonus kill or some similar combination to get it close to be balanced. If any of those is unlikely, this scenario is unlikely and a bonus kill is not likely for reasons I’ve laid out earlier. Role blocker I might believe, thanks to what happened to amrussell.
Now let’s try again with 1 more scum. The town now has 28.5 points. With a Godfather, Roleblocker, and 3 vanilla scum, the scum are at 27 points. That seems pretty close to being balanced to me.
So, if you still think there’s only 4 scum, that means that it’s incredibly likely that either Hal, Pleo, and Hero are all lying, Zsofia is lying, or all four are. Hell, even if Zsofia were lying, it would still necessitate 5 scum to be any bit close to reasonably balanced.
So you disagree that:
If you think that both of them are scum then several of my scenarios can now work with 5 scum. What do you think about my other assumptions? Now that several of my scenarios have 5 scum, what do you think of them?
EBWOP: I haven’t gone back to check, so “several” might not be the right word. Substitute “at least 1” for “several”.
You’re completely discounting the possibility of a Compulsory Vig, which is what I’ve been proposing the whole time. He HAS to kill, and just because someone claims, doesn’t mean they’re not an okay target. Maybe he didn’t like the claim, and found that person most suspicious on Day One while having little or no read on anyone else. Don’t forget that on Day Three, sure Santo had claimed, but it was completely unconfirmable, and he’d pulled the whole “the Day will last at least 12 more hours” thing, and was put under some pressure that Day. It’s not surprising a compulsory Vig might target him.
If you’re going to say the scum have an extra kill, you then have to explain why they would have killed Nanook when it was pretty clear he was probably going to be lynched the next Day. You’d also have to explain why the scum would choose to kill both Fretful and Kat, when Kat was acting as cover for them.
It just doesn’t add up. And I hate to do this, but since I can figure it out, I’m sure the scum can too. If Hal and Pleo are both telling the truth, and Pleo is a power role, then doesn’t it make sense that, since he’s almost certainly not a doctor, or cop, or watcher, and that there’s reason to believe there’s a Vig out there, he might be the Vig?
Also, I know you wrote this before my numbers post, but please read this in the context of that.
I said before, I think using the Day 4 vote count at all is pretty useless. First, about half the town didn’t even vote, so we have no idea at what ratio the scum did or did not vote. Second, what reason is there to say they’re unlikely to be scum together, other than that it was essentially a snapshot from a shortened Day. All scum knew was that there was a pile forming on OaOW and that he wasn’t scum. What if OaOW was town. Shadow himself pretty much had to vote for Hero in order to stay consistent. As for Total Lost, I’d have to go back and see the context.
Either way, vote distribution is important, but it’s just as important to keep taking into account that scum have other motivation, and there was motivation for avoiding the OaOW lynch wagon.
I just don’t know right now. I see Hal as Town and have seen him as Town for a long time. But I did find Pleonast and Hero as scummy - so that claim just really made me confused. I thought that Hal might be an insane cop - but no one else seems to thinks so.
Blaster Master, I see what you’re saying. There goes my whole theory. It sucks that after putting so much work into the assumptions and scenarios they didn’t amount to anything. But it would be silly to keep clinging onto them, so
Unvote Rapier42
I’m not going to vote for anyone right now, because I’ve got a lot of thinking to do and not enough time to do it. Hopefully the Day lasts long enough for me to reread a little and pick someone else.
I’m a little skeptical of Hal and not entirely comfortable with the claim. From the scum perspective, guessing that I was vanilla wasn’t a huge leap: I was leading all day, and have been taking heat all game, and I didn’t claim anything. Hal claimed after Pleo was taking heat, and than Pleo confirmed him.
I see where they are coming from. We have a choice, either take Hal at his word and trust his claims, or test him. If he is telling the truth, we want to keep him alive, and therefor Pleo is the only way to test our investigator without killing the investigator. You could lynch me, but like I said earlier, my vanilla role would be a safe guess for scum.
Finally, we have a confirmed PFK doctor, a claimed doctor, a confirmed Admin and a claimed “backup” admin. The flavor suggested two powers. Perhaps these two powers are scum, and another unified group. This explains why most of the night killings have been power roles. The “3rd” group might not know who the other members are, and target claimed roles to avoid hitting one of their own.
I dunno. Maybe I’m way off base and am missing something obvious, but I don’t see why being skeptical of Hal is unhealthy right now.
blink
Either you didn’t read my post, or I failed to make myself clear.
I’m keeping my vote on somebody I think is scum. I’ve already said I don’t believe her role-claim adds anything to her defense.
My vote for her was certainly not based on a “pattern of non-committal posting”, my vote was initally based on her posting a non-committal post in reaction to being called out for posting non-committally. Since then, she’s done other things that tweaked me, and done nothing to reassure me.
And in any case, I disagree that I’ve been non-committal to the extend that she has. Confused, yes. But not non-committal.
Regarding the role-claims in general - I think Town is letting itself become distracted by these. They’re inevitable, at this point, I know, but my point is that if we’re at lylo (and Blam has me convinced, anyway), none of them are any damned good. I believe we need to focus our voting on the highest chance of hitting scum - when we do, we’ll have PLENTY of information to digest. We don’t need to lynch Pleo or anybody else for information now, and can’t afford to be wrong.
No, no testing. We don’t have any wiggle room for that right now. If we lynch a scum and get lucky on the kills tonight, we can talk about testing claims tomorrow.
Trust Hal or don’t, now is not the time to take a flyer.