Seattle thrashed the Gisnts in NY the cards lost to them at home
With both teams have lost to the Rams and Bengals, Seattle got very close to beating the Bengals
Both teams have one win against a decent team, but @ Detroit is a much tougher fixture than home to the Cowboys
In the remaining games Seattle have beaten the Panthers and the Cards have lost to the Commanders and 49ers while a lost tothe 49ers is expected the Panthers are not that much weaker than the commanders.
Seattle are at home
Overall I think the spread is about right, yes the Cards can win but Seattle must be reasonably strong favorites. There again don’t trust me I thought the Jags would beat the Texans and the Commanders would beat the Bears, so my “Value” picks have not gone well this season.
Or the opposite. People who didn’t pick Seattle went 1-8 in survival this week! And it wasn’t as if they all went on one team Rams, Raiders, Bills and Commanders all had at least one pick.
I usually try to make some of the riskier picks that save good teams for later, but this year I’ve decided to play it pretty safe as a strategy and burn a lot of the good teams. So I’m strikeless so far which is great, but if I survive late into the season I’m going to have some tough picks.
The 1 player who survived who didn’t pick Seattle probably should’ve lost, Indy should’ve won that game. This leaves us down to 3 players with no strikes - myself, Jules Andre, and garygnu.
I tend to balance it out a bit, if a middling team is farily close in the spread to a strong team I will go with the middling team, but of course early in the season it is not clear who the strong and weak teams are. I gt away with picking the Giants in week 2 not knowing how bad they were but also picked the Ravens and 49ers early on (Though in week 1 the Ravens probably had less future value than they do now). Last week I went with the Bills because down to my last life I thought I would play it safe (and only just got away with it.
This is where it starts to hurt using a lot of good teams early. I’ve already used most of the big favorites this week. I think it’s similar with a lot of people on yahoo - usually there’s a clear favorite in terms of everyone’s picks, but this week the top picks are 21%, 21%, 17%, 11% of users spread out pretty wide because a lot of people probably already used up the top teams.
I do have the Lions hosting the Raiders and the Chargers hosting the Bears to choose from. I’m not super confident about either of those games, though I like that both teams are at home and the visiting team has a significant amount of travel. I’m guessing the Lions are probably pissed about their beat down this week and may take it out on the raiders, so I’m leaning that way, but it’s tough.
Not sure when they put it up so the sample size might have been pretty small when you posted, it is now 33% LAC, 19% Bal, 18% Det, 7% Phi. I think there is usually only a clear favorite when a mediocre team is at home to a very week team. With only the Dolphins being stronger favorite than the Chargers (and very few people either already used the chargers or wanting to keep them until later) I am surprised not even more people are not going for the chargers. Being on my last life I need others to fall while I survive so will probably go with Miami this week.
As an aside I hate the way Yahoo abbrievate the Rams “LA” so you have to try and find an “LAC” or “LAR” to see which team they are referring to.
Almost everyone is split between 2 picks: Arizona at Cleveland, and Chicago at New Orleans. I don’t love either game. Cleveland should win this one easily, but they have an XFL pick machine in at quarterback which is a recipe for an underdog win. I don’t really know how good NO or how bad Chicago is, so I’m not sure if that’s a better bet.
I’m in another survival pool on a Browns message board and we’re down to 18 out of 200+ that started. Most of the remaining players picked the Browns, so I’ll probably pick NO there just to be able to cash in if the Browns lose.
Some of you are lucky enough to have Dallas available to pick against NYG in survival, but most of us don’t have that luxury. Buffalo against Denver has a nice 7.5 line, but most of us have used Buffalo too. I suspect picks will vary more this week and we’ll see some eliminations. I think a lot of us will probably pick Cinci but I really don’t want to bet against Houston right now.
Cowboys were mostly picked in week 2 (9 picks) with only 2 picks in week 3 (when they lost to the Cards). I was thinking about half of us still had the Cowboys available but interestingly of the people who have been knocked out only Celtic Cowboys had picked Dallas before elimination.
I went with the Giants in week 2 thinking they were “a team tht won a playoff game last season” rather than the team thrashed by the Cowboys in week 1 (and got away with it), though the Jags took me down in week 3.
All three of the remaining strikeless survivors picked Cinci and it’s not looking good, we might all lose together. I really didn’t have a good feeling about this game, but I really had few options. Next best pick available was probably Pit vs GB and that game is a toss up.
Last week the correct picks included Dallas with 3, and Indy and Pitt with one each. The incorrect picks were Bengals with 5, and Baltimore and Buffalo with one each.