SDMB Super League fantasy football 2011

The Game Room
141

Quarterbacks: 3. (15) Drew Brees, 9. (51) Matthew Stafford, 18. (106) Colt McCoy

I really don’t like what I did with my Qb picks after Brees. I have to assume that Stafford will stay healthy all season (which won’t happen), for my lack of a decent QB4. This could really come back to bite me. Brees will have his usual year, which hopefully will have less INT’s. McCoy will be serviceable, but not very good. It will be a decision every week if he should be in my flex.

*By the way, if anybody is looking to trade a QB let me know.

Runningbacks: 1. (3) Arian Foster, 2. (10) LeSean McCoy, 4. (22) Steven Jackson, 8. (46) Ahmad Bradshaw, 13. (75) Tim Hightower, 15. (87) Fred Jackson, 24. (142) Ronnie Brown, 28. (166) LaDainian Tomlinson

I went RB heavy, taking 3 in the first 4 rounds. I also went with RB’s who will benefit from the partial ppr. If I couldn’t decide which back to take the tiebreaker was receptions. Foster’s hamstring could be an issue this year, and I wanted to grab Ben Tate, but he went earlier then I wanted to grab him. McCoy I really liked this pick, and didn’t think he would make it back to me here with the partial ppr. With defenses keyed in on Vick and stopping any big downfield plays, McCoy could be left with a lot of room to run. Jackson I think for some strange reason will have a good year. McDaniel’s will open up vertically a offense that has stagnated for the last couple seasons. Which will give Jackson the chance at improving his dismal TD total. Bradshaw will be a solid #4 RB. He is quick and will catch his share of balls out of the backfield, but how many TD will Jacobs poach? I guess I jumped on the “Hightower will not suck this year” bandwagon also.

Wide Receivers: **5. (27) Greg Jennings, 6. (34) DeSean Jackson, 7. (39) Dez Bryant, 11. (63) Percy Harvin, 12. (70) Chad Ochocinco, 14. (82) Santana Moss, 19. (111) A.J. Green, ** 21. (123) Jordy Nelson, 23. (135) Pierre Garcon, 26. (154) James Jones, 27. (159) Jacoby Jones

My top 3 WR’s are all big play guys. Jennings is a little inconsistent, but with Rodgers throwing him the ball, any week could be huge. Bryant will be the #1 guy in Dallas by week 8. Though its not a huge, the return yardage points that Jackson and Harvin will get could be a nice bonus. Who really knows what kind of year Ochocinco will have, he looked done after last year, but its Brady. Moss had 1000 yards last year (IIRC I don’t feel like looking it up), now he has Grossman throwing the ball, god help me.

Tightend: 10. (58) Vernon Davis, 16. (94) Kellen Winslow, 22. (130) Brandon Pettigrew

With having to start 2 TE’s I wanted to get 3 big play-makers. TE is not a position a regularly take early, usually settling for some middle of pack guys, but for some reason this year in all my draft this changed. Davis will have a year similar to last season. With Alex Smith behind center, Davis seems to be his go-to guy. I really like Pettigrew in the 22nd. If Stafford can stay healthy ( I know) Detroit’s offense is very pass happy.

**Defense: 20. (118) Baltimore, 25. (147) Detroit, ** 30. (178) San Francisco

I got in the end of a run on Def’s and grabbed Baltimore. They’re not what they were a couple years ago, but very steady. Detroit should pressure opposing QB’s into throwing picks, along with the expected sacks. San Francisco was really just a homer pick, but they’re an above average defense whose offense couldn’t keep them off the field last year.

142

I was surprised to see myself in third place here, because I’m fairly certain I have the second best lineup. I’d obviously take AP over Rice, I think Hillis and Turner are worth about the same (bearing in mind that Hillis sort of fell apart at the end of last season), and I think Forte is only worth a little more than Blount. I would definitely take Williams over Best, and my backups are deeper.

I definitely agree that Retro’s group is head and shoulders above everyone else’s. I would have ranked Omni’s group over Beef’s, just because of Moreno over Mathews.

143

Wide Receiver

  1. Omniscient - Andre Johnson, Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, Braylon Edwards, Plaxico Burress, Nate Burleson, Earl Bennett, Mike Williams
  2. SenorBeef - Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Mario Manningham, Santonio Holmes, Michael Crabtree, Roy Williams
  3. RNATB - Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Mike Thomas, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith 1.0, Mike Sims-Walker, Austin Collie, Robert Meachem, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester
  4. VarlosZ - Hakeem Nicks, TB Mike Williams, Stevie Johnson, Marques Colston, Julio Jones, Malcom Floyd, Johnny Knox, Emmanuel Sanders, Deion Branch, Greg Little
  5. RetroVertigo - Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, Jacoby Jones
  6. Jules Andre - Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Danny Amendola, Lance Moore, Lee Evans, Davone Bess, Hines Ward, Jacoby Ford, Steve Smith (PHI), Antonio Brown, Brandon Gibson

For some reason, there seem to be much sharper distinctions at WR than at RB. While obviously there’s the possibility for each group to over-or-under perform, just going by accepted wisdom and expectation, I felt pretty confident at almost every step.

**Omni **and **Beef **are very close all down the line, but Omni gets the top spot largely for the simple reason that he’s got 10 WRs while Beef has only 8 (7 considering one of them is Roy Williams). We must start 7 every week, so Beef will, of course, hit the waiver wire when the byes start and players get injured. And, yes, the players he picks up mid-season will only be a little worse than Omni’s 9th and 10th WRs, but doing so will mean he has to chip away at his depth elsewhere, and it’s all generally less certain than just drafting your backup scrubs outright.

I was tempted to move Beef to 3rd, below RNATB, for the same reasons, but couldn’t in the end: the top twos are very close (slight edge to RNATB), but then Beef has a solid advantage from WR3 straight through to WR7, and they all have to start.

RNATB bests me and **Retro **on the strength of those top two WRs; after that there’s not much separating the three groups. I gave myself a slight edge over Retro mostly because I think less of Dez Bryant, Santana Moss, and Ochcinco than most people do, but it’s nonetheless extremely close.

Only **Jules **stands a good distance away from the pack. As he says, he got a bunch of possession receiver who should put up enough points so that the position doesn’t totally murder his team, thus leaving a gap that’s small enough for his other positions to make up. It’s not an unreasonable plan, and it may well work. OTOH, aside from Welker and *maybe *Reggie Wayne, there isn’t even a *chance *that any of these guys put up a great fantasy season. And now that Manning is really out, there isn’t a single guy there that I would expect to finish in the top 12, possibly even top 15 (though of course the odds are that at least one will outperform [my] expectations and land there). I think he’s left himself a lot of ground to make up, and that it’s going to be near impossible for him to have by far the best team, as he’s conceding a disadvantage right off the bat in 7 of the 16 non-DEF/K positions. If he wins, it’ll have to be close.

144

As you say, ADP > Rice, Hillis and Turner are basically equal, Forte is somewhat better than Blount; I might think the difference in the last pair is a little bit bigger than you do, but basically we agree here.

What you may have missed is that you’re not comparing DeAngleo Williams (you) to Jahvid Best (Jules), but rather DeAngelo Williams to Felix Jones, whom I like at least moderately more. After that, you’ve got a bit of a problem in that it’s doubtful that both Williams and J. Stewart will be worth starting (since their team sucks so bad), so out of the pair you really just get whoever winds up being healthier/more effective. If you look at it that way, then the next step it to compare your Ryan Grant to Jahvid Best (and I think you lose pretty bad there), your Addai to Mark Ingram (close, probably a slight edge to you), your Snelling to his Tolbert (you lose that), and your Pierre Thomas to his Hardesty (you win, but it’s a pretty meaningless victory unless one of them is elevated by injury).

Which is all to say I think the two groups are extremely close, and if you wanted to put yours on top I couldn’t really quibble. I’m just reasonably confident that your group is not *clearly *better.

145

Tight End

  1. SenorBeef - Jermichael Finley, Greg Olsen, Jared Cook, Lance Kendricks
  2. Jules Andre - Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap
  3. Omniscient - Owen Daniels, Jimmy Graham, Zach Miller
  4. RetroVertigo - Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew
  5. VarlosZ - Dallas Clark, Aaron Hernandez, Dustin Keller
  6. RNATB - Jason Witten, Marcedes Lewis
    Another very difficult group to rank; I stand by almost none of this.

Part of what’s difficult is that neither of the top 2 TEs (Gates, Finley) were joined to an elite partner at the position (Gonzo seems to be finally wearing down, Heap was an underdog to be drafted probably, Olsen was never great and his new offense sucks and won’t be throwing, and neither Cook nor Kendricks has accomplished anything yet). I could have pretty easily put **Omni **#1, what with Jimmy Graham’s good game last night.

After that I still don’t really know what’s going on. Jason Witten is the best guy in on the bottom three teams, but I put **RNATB **last because (and we’ve had this argument before) I just don’t see Marcedes Lewis doing anything but regressing to the mean this year; I think he got a great TE1 and than, for TE2, just some guy who’s barely distinguishable from what’s on the wire (and of course he chose not to draft a backup TE).

If Manning wan’t out for half the season or more, I’d put myself 3rd or 4th, but Dallas Clark must necessarily take a big hit to his value.

I could have put **Retro **3rd, but overall I feel pretty comfortable slotting him in between Omni and myself.
Anyway, the margins here are generally a lot smaller than at the other positions. You really could punt at TE and not seriously injure your team in the process.

146

Defense

  1. Jules Andre - Philadelphia, New York Jets
  2. SenorBeef - Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas
  3. VarlosZ - Pittsburgh, Kansas City, New York Giants
  4. RetroVertigo - Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco
  5. RNATB - New England, Tampa Bay
  6. Omniscient - San Diego, New Orleans
    I don’t have a lot to say about these rankings. They’re not very important to our overall scoring, and there’s just a ton of variance from year to year (both in defenses’ fantasy scoring, and their actual quality), making it near impossible to predict who will finish where.

I will say about my own selections that I think Pittsburgh stands a better than usual chance of repeating as the top DEF, what with their easy schedule, and that KC’s defense is a good bet to improve rather than decline (due to the demographics of their high draft picks in recent years). Probably I shouldn’t have bothered to draft the Giants, but it was the 7th to last pick and could hardly have mattered less.

147

Huh. I totally missed that he had Felix Jones. Objection withdrawn.

148

I would rank my TEs last based on depth alone, though I think Lewis is the best #2 along with Graham, so no argument here. But yeah, I spend big on tight ends because after Gates/Witten/Finley (and if not for Manning being hurt, Clark) they’re basically all the same.

I do like Owen Daniels to firmly establish himself in that top tier this year, but he’s not worth what they are yet.

149

To sum everything up (you’re nuts if you think I’m going to rank the Kickers), I’ll assign points for each ranking and tally the totals. It’ll work as follows:

6 points for each 1st place ranking, 5 for each 2nd, etc. Then we’ll apply the following modifiers to account for positional significance: x6 for QB and RB, x5 for WR, x2 for TE, and x1 for DEF. It’s quick and dirty, it’s somewhat arbitrary, a few minor and totally plausible changes would result in big shifts in the totals, etc., so don’t take it seriously. But I will be curious to see how this matches up with the point totals at the end of the season. Please try to remember to quote it back to me so you can shove it in my face when the time comes.

Rankings are for QB - RB - WR - TE - DEF, respectively:

  1. Jules Andre . (1 - 2 - 6 - 2 - 1) = 87 points.

2t) SenorBeef . (4 - 5 - 2 - 1 -2) = 72 points.

2t) RNATB … (3 - 3 - 3 - 6 - 5) = 72 points.

  1. VarlosZ … (2 - 4 - 4 -5 - 3) = 71 points.

  2. RetroVertigo (6 - 1 - 5 - 4 - 4) = 61 points.

  3. Omniscient . (5 - 6 - 1 - 3 - 6) = 57 points.

150

You know, you could have given me red and given Retro sienna - it’s close to gold, and that’s the Niners’ second color (and red is now the Bucs’ primary color).

I can live with this. I fully admit that my draft went kind of pear-shaped in the middle in terms of wide receivers, especially WRT the Rice pick (though I think there’s serious upside there when he gets healthy). I think the Meachem pick was borne out to some degree last night - sure, Lance Moore was out, but one or another of the Saints’ wideouts is always hurt.

I don’t care much for Mike Wallace (one year wonder?) or Maclin (at least until he proves he’s healthy) but there’s no question Beef’s overall wideout corps is better than mine.

I actually like Retro’s wideouts better than yours, Varlos. You have lots of talent but also an awful lot of sophomore slump potential. One of Nicks, Williams and Johnson is likely to flame out. That said, Colston is an almost unbelievably good #4, even if he’s a bit streaky.

Jules is the clear winner here, with arguably the two best fantasy defenses outside of Pittsburgh. Green Bay and Chicago are a pretty clear #2 combo.

151

That should say, “don’t spend big”. :smack:

152

I thought about that, but I just felt that Sienna was further away from 49ers gold than Buccaneers Pewter; it mostly looked like a straight brown, which I would never come close to associating with San Fran. And I guess it’s true that red is the Bucs’ primary color now, but that’s no less true for the 49ers, and I would imagine that most people who aren’t fans of the Bucs would tend to associate them more with pewter (or the orange creamsicles).

Hey, apparently “gold” is an option after all. It doesn’t show up on the drop-down menu as a choice, but you can manually type it in. Of course, it doesn’t really resemble the dark gold used by the 49ers.

153

And the Bears are Navy and Orange, no black to be found! :wink:

I think it’s a little crazy how little love the Chargers defense is getting this year. They had the #1 yardage defense in the league last year, and while the terrible special teams played a role in that, I think they are going to be a pretty potent fantasy defense this year, especially in the secondary.

154

The only tiebreaker I can think of for team colors is Super Bowl victories. So…

155

I can’t argue with Varlos’ interpretations too much, I think he’s ranked them pretty fairly across the board. Of course, any ranking that has my team a mile ahead of everyone else is going to be looked at favorably, that’s a given.

I don’t have a problem being ranked second, or maybe even third, at RB. But I will say that I think it’s unfair to immediately toss aside Ray Rice in this format. I’ll say it right now. He leads this league in RB fantasy points at the end of the season.

The overall ranking agrees with Yahoo’s projections, by the way. Yahoo really loves my team. My team is projected to finish much higher in final points than any other (I have no idea how I didn’t win the best draft award, I did the math by hand and came out damn near a hundred points better by season’s end). I don’t know if that should worry me or not.

156

I’m going to be out tailgating by like 7am tomorrow so I can’t make last second changes to my fantasy roster. I always tell people that if they clearly state conditional wishes I’ll make it happen as commish, so I’m not invoking any special priviledges here.

If Arian Foster is out (game time decision), I want to start Ben Tate, otherwise I want Ryan Mathews in that spot.

Is that cool? I’ve done that sort of thing for other people before.

157

I have no problem with it.

158

Well that’s nice and all but we don’t get points for yardage (do we?)

159

I was fairly confident I was going to win the McFadden vs Hernandez matchup against Varlos, but then Brady went nuts and threw 150 yards to everyone on the team including the long snapper, so now it’s an uphill battle. I need 15 more points out of McFadden.

And no, no yardage for defense.

160

I swapped Mathews for Tate as per my stated intentions (Foster was inactive). The game was so close that this pushed me from a loss to a win, but I was clear about it. Hopefully this should cause no issues, but people like to flip out on me about shit that was made clear long ago.