Here’s my personal draft break down. It got a little out of control.
Omni’s Omnipotents
QB - 3. (16) Philip Rivers, 8. (45) Peyton Manning, 9. (52) Sam Bradford, 15. (88) Jay Cutler
I think we all came into this draft with some well-defined strategies. When you break down the rosters it’s pretty clear where each strategy each user was implementing. I ranked my priorities like this: Stud WRs, QBs, RBs who catch balls. Considering that I’m really happy with how my team panned out. QB is the prime example. I knew that the teams that were able to start 3 upper teir QBs would have the potential to run away with this league. There are 6 teams and by my count there’s only 12 upper echelon QBs available, meaning that quite a few of you are going to be struggling at the position. I waited on QB a little bit in favor of stud WR and RBs, which frankly was a break from strategy, but I still got a top QB in the third round. I think Rivers, Brees and Rodgers are all equivalent players this year, I’m thrilled to have waited the longest and gotten the last of the group. After getting Rivers I relaxed on QB and shifted gears to focus on WR, more on that in a bit. Manning is like the plague at this point and I’m unsure of how to feel about it. Up until the last few days I was skeptical of all the talk of him missing time and figured he’d still be Mr Reliable. Now that he’s out at least a game or two his stock is plummeting. I think he’s a hell of a value here in the 8th round of a 3 QB league. Of course that relies on him getting back under center and performing close to his potential by week 3 or 4, but I’m optimistic on that. Manning could make or break this team.
Behind Manning I needed to be sure and get another star quickly and I got that in the next round in Bradford. If I’m able to start Rivers, a healthy Manning and Bradford running a McDaniels system for 12 weeks this year I’m going to be pretty tough to beat. I was the second to last person to take a 2nd QB but the first to take a third. This of course all hinges on Bradford continuing his growth and becoming a fantasy stud. His WRs aren’t great but QBs tend to make great strides in year 2 and McDaniels had a hell of an effect on Kyle Orton last year. I think that repeats itself in spades this year. I’m very happy to have Bradford and suspect that he might even outperform a healthy Manning this year. Again, I was the first player to take a 4th QB. This is partly strategy, since getting quality QBs is crucial, but is also a reflection of worry about Manning. Cutler will start for me in week 1. It’s possible I may end up wishing I had Cassel here but I think Cutler has more upside and less injury risk. Plus I’ll have a hometown guy to cheer for. Cutler can be maddening but I trust him way more than anyone else’s 4th QB and he might be the only one you can say definitively won’t get benched at any point.
WR - 2. (9) Andre Johnson, 5. (28) Miles Austin, 6. (33) Brandon Marshall, 7. (40) Dwayne Bowe, 10. (57) Kenny Britt, 16. (93) Braylon Edwards, 19. (112) Plaxico Burress, 23. (136) Nate Burleson, 24. (141) Earl Bennett, 25. (148) Mike Williams
Here’s the meat of my team. The PPR aspect coupled with the incredibly shallow and unpredictable crop of WRs out there this year made it imperative for me to get a crop of stars at this position. The league decided to go with 7 WRs and I really think most of you will feel the pain of that decision when you’re comparing your 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th WRs against mine every week. I knew I wanted reliable guys who catch a lot of balls and score. I avoided the homerun guys like Wallace and DeSean Jackson in favor of reliable #1s with a track record, plus it’s a reasonably healthy and durable group to boot. AJ is the best WR in the league and that Texans offense should be dominant, I have way more faith in it than I do the Cardinals or Lions. This pick was a no brainer, in a PPR format I perhaps should have considered McCoy more seriously but the depth at RB later is better than WR. I’m a bit worried about Dez Bryant’s year 2 effect on Austin’s production but with Romo Austin seems to be the favored guy, so long as there’s no sign of Kitna I should be rock solid here in another very prolific offense. Marshall and Bowe are basically the same guy and they are very undervalued this year across most fantasy leagues. I kept considering going back to the RB well but these guys were too valuable within my strategy to pass up. At this point it became clear that I was going to have the league’s most dominant WR corps. Catches and TDs will come in droves.
After taking a sabbatical to focus on QB I went back to the well with perhaps my favorite pick of the entire draft. Kenny Britt is without question one of “my guys” this year. I have him across almost all of my leagues and I really believe in his ability to contend for the crown of #1 FF WR this year. I was a little shocked that he lasted this long since there’s been considerable buzz around him. Luckily everyone else went a bit QB crazy at the same time I did so he slid. Braylon Edwards is a guy I’ve always disliked but I really believe his situation improved dramatically this offseason. He’ll be the primary guy in San Fran (save the Crabtree garbage please) and I expect the offense to become much more consistent under Harbaugh. As a 6th WR Edwards is bordering on ridiculous. I like him quite a lot more than Boldin, Ochocinco and Mike Thomas, guys taken several rounds ahead of him. I was a little pissed that Malcolm Floyd came off the board ahead of that pick, but it’s very possible that Edwards is the safer and higher upside pick. My last starter is Plaxico, he’s a total roll of the dice. It’s possible he’s the Jets primary target in the red zone, it’s also possible that he tears a hammy or plays like a guy who’s been in jail for 20 months. Whatever, he’s my 7th WR and could very well post the same numbers that Braylon Edwards did last year, if he does that my 7th WR is better than most people’s 4th.
The backups are all solid. Normally I’d have wanted a couple more than this considering bye week issues, but I’m so strong up top that I am OK giving something away in favor of RB fishing. Burleson might finally become a steady and explosive option if that Detroit offense lives up to the hype. Bennett is going to be the most reliable WR in Chicago and will probably get 7 catches a guy moving the chains. Big fat Mike Williams was a big surprise last season and could be improve even more this one, who knows if Tarvaris will get him the ball and how Sidney Rice will steal his touches but just by virtue of his size he’ll be a major redzone option should the Seahawks actually find the endzone. Plus, as I’ve said before, I suspect Whitehurst gets the gig sooner or later and his familiarity with Williams won’t hurt. I’ll stack this group, top to bottom, against any team in the league. I should get major production from 7 or 8 roster spots every week.
RB - 1. (4) Chris Johnson, 4. (21) Frank Gore, 11. (64) Knowshon Moreno, 14. (81) Reggie Bush, 17. (100) Michael Bush, 18. (105) Willis McGahee, 22. (129) Roy Helu, 26. (153) Kendall Hunter, 27. (160) Marion Barber
Going WR and QB early meant I was going to have to give a little on RB. I revised my strategy quite a bit as a result. Typically I try and insure that I have a RB to flex and a backup every week, drafting up to 4 starting quality RBs before addressing WR2 or QB. In this PPR league that divergence was exaggerated even more. The end result is one I’m still pretty happy with. CJ2K should be his old self in Tennessee. I gave some serious thought to Ray Rice here and I do buy the hype around him, he’s justifiably going first overall in some leagues. I like CJ2K far more than Foster or Charles and the potential for another 2000+ yard season is just too much to deny. Rice’s pass catching ability is a value but the TD upside of CJ outweighs that. In the end I feel I got the ideal pick for me in the first round, I want home runs from my RBs, I’ll get the doubles from my WRs. Gore too has the potential to be a monster, there’s risk for certain but the Niners offense is going to lean on him heavily. He had 46 catches in 9 games last year, he might have 80 this year. Gore is a guy on whom the hate has gone too far and I think I’ll benefit from it. The only guy that I might regret passing on is Turner, because if Gore misses time Turner’s consistency could be missed.
Knowshon, like Britt, is another one of “my guys”. I’ve got him in a ton of leagues and I’m putting a ton of stock in the John Fox system. Moreno put up sneaky good numbers last year and as he’s matured I suspect his durability will improve somewhat. Under Fox he’s got 2008 DeAngelo Williams upside. He might fall on his face, but again I’m swinging for the fences here. For an 11th round RB Knowshon is a hell of a value as one of the few guys getting the lion’s share of the carries, I don’t believe for a second that McGahee is going to be the J-Stew to his DeAngelo. Reggie Bush is an enigma, he’s on a new team in a new system. Either he’s going to collapse under the load and we’ll learn that he was a product of the Saints system or he’ll blossom and we’ll learn he was a victim of it. I like the Dolphins offensive line and this team is going to have to run the ball. Daniel Thomas has been disappointing in preseason meaning Bush will look more like a feature back than a gimmick back. If he gets 18 carries a game he could be a stud…for about 7 weeks. I’ll take it.
When I started looking at backups I decided early that I wasn’t going to farm for breakout rookies. I picked a lot of high risk/high rewards backs as starters and I want reliable production from their backups. There were two ways to accomplish that, grab handcuffs or grab guys on the weak end of timeshares. It went swimmingly. Michael Bush has crazy ability and managed 850 yards last year even with a healthy McFadden and he gets a bunch of goal line touches. He’s basically Jonathan Stewart for half the cost with twice the upside this year. If one of my top guys goes down I can be sure to get something from his replacement. I’d have probably preferred Marshawn Lynch if he’d have lasted, but Bush might outscore him anyways…he did last year. Marion Barber later was similar in logic to Bush, he’ll get a lot of touches and TD carries even if the starter stays healthy. Plus if called on to start, he’s proven it before.
I employed the other strategy in Kendall Hunter and Willis McGahee. Handcuffs. I’m relying on Gore and Moreno a lot and if they go down, even if for a couple games, I’ll be assured of productive replacements. If I’m wrong about McGahee and he does steal touches from Knowshon I’m covered. I have to say, I’m fired up about how this worked out. Roy Helu is the only guy I speculated on and he’s another one of “my guys”. If I’m right about him being the handpicked Shanahan special, he’ll supplant one of my starters quickly. The Redskins have run the ball surprisingly well in the preseason and I’m not a believer in Tim Hightower at all.
TE - 12. (69) Owen Daniels, 13. (76) Jimmy Graham, 28. (165) Zach Miller, 30. (177) Rob Gronkowski
Tight end was a tough position to evaluate for this league. It’s a generally deep position this year but the deep benches mean that people could stock up on them and the scarcity of WRs led to exactly that. With PPR TEs value gets a little boost so I decided I’d better plan to have a couple really good ones in good pass happy offenses. Mission accomplished. Owen Daniels is always a guy who I pass on because I always assumed the previous season was a fluke. He’s proven me wrong often enough, I’m on board now. We’ll see if this jinxes him. If he’s healthy I think 80 catches are a lock without a reliable option opposite AJ. Graham is the flavor of the month in fantasy and I think he lasted surprisingly long in this league. A drafted back to back TEs here because I wanted to set it and forget it at that position. I might have over drafted Graham a little as an unproven guy but if the hype is true he too could be a 65+ catch guy.
I’d considered ignoring backup TE altogether but I realized that both my TEs have the same bye week. That was motivation to take a pair of backups and in the late rounds I didn’t like the RB or WR options to dramatically improve my team. I love Zach Miller in Seattle, the QB situation is a big question mark but he’ll be the only guy catching balls at the position and I suspect both Jackson and Whitehurst will lean on TEs a lot when things break down, as they often will. Gronk was something of a surprise, I didn’t expect to see him still available at the end of the draft. He had 11 TDs last year…I like this pick a lot. If Hernandez gets hurt he might be a starter for me.
DEF - 20. (117) San Diego, 21. (124) New Orleans
Picking up a pair of defenses back to back is a major diversion for me. Starting 2 with boosted scoring makes them more valuable. However it doesn’t make them more predictable. Time will tell if taking these two 9 rounds before, say, Dallas and NYG was smart, I suspect it wasn’t. Nevertheless I really am high on both these units, San Diego especially. I won’t go too deep into it, but San Diego has a really soft schedule and a division they might clean up in and New Orleans could be a turnover and sack machine.
K - 29. (172) Nate Kaeding
Hey, I got a kicker. He’s a good one but with just 6 teams that’s not exactly going to set me apart. For ever Philip Rivers and SD DEF touchdown I’ll get a little boost, so there’s that.