But 2.8% fascist? Seems low to me. Very believable.
How can you be so confident? There had to have been at least some. The votes that 4th place Dan got are much more than enough to swing the election if it ended at this exact moment. It wouldn’t take much. I don’t think it proves anything
As an aside will everyone pay attention to their autocorrect so we stop seeing references to candidate “Pelota”? She’s not an Iberian ball game.
No doubt much of it is that. But the first election they used it, Peltola won even though Alaska is a fairly red state and Palin came in first in the primary. Because of that, a lot of Republicans, especially Trump, automatically rejected it as the cause of her winning. Of course, Trump didn’t understand it and neither did Sarah Palin, who lost that election. If she had understood it, she would likely have won.
None of what dtilque says is wrong.
I was actually thinking that there’s probably a pretty high overlap between people who would be confused by the two names and the people who would be confused by the voting system. And someone who’s confused by the voting system, that would most likely be manifested in them only marking their first-place vote. So that’s not too surprising.
I don’t know if we need a new thread for this, but here are Nate Silver’s preliminary sketches of how the 2028 Senate map might look. He’s assuming we end up with 56 seats, although two of them haven’t officially been called as of this writing.
Best case scenario, where the environment stays at D+13 as it was this week:
WI and NC will surely fall, and we’d likely win Iowa again. We wouldn’t be favored anywhere else, but would have realistic shots at AK, FL, MO, KS, and UT. So at least 59 seats, maybe one or two more.
In a more moderate environment, D+5, the five big swing States would be three of theirs (WI, NC, IA), one of ours in OH (this was a special election, Brown is back up in two years), and John Fetterman’s seat in PA. So 54 seats would be the floor, with 59 still a possibility.
If Dems somehow totally shit the bed and the environment is R+3, IA would be a safe hold for them, but Dems would still have some chance in the other four swing States above, and Dem seats in AZ, GA, and NV would become tossups. Republicans might possibly have a shot in NH, but all the other Dem seats would still be safe. So the absolute worst case scenario in which everything possible goes wrong would reduce us to 50 seats, and presumably the GOP would also win the Presidency.
So if Walz is out, who is Klobuchar likely to consider appointing to fill the rest of her term?
Franken Franken Franken
Franken would be a great FU choice, one that I would support. Like Tim Walz, he’d probably also “rather eat glass”.
The most commonly mentioned are a state rep Kelly Morrison, the current and newly reelected secretary of state Steve Simon (who told the Trump administration to “shove it” when they demanded the voter rolls), and Angie Craig, a long-term Congresswoman who lost a senate primary to the eventual winner Peggy Flanagan.
Al Franken? Maybe I’m being whooshed, but he was pressured to resign by fellow Democrats under multiple sexual misconduct claims. Yeah, lets open that can of worms again.
No cite, but I’m pretty sure many, many Democrats – voters and “officials” – regret the Franken overreaction, and that even those (rightfully) sensitive to such things wouldn’t see it as misogynistic or risky were he to be reinstated.
But, yeah, he probably would rather not, for many reasons.
Moderating:
Anything else on Al Franken should go to its own thread.
How to Reply as a linked Topic
Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, looks like a curving arrow point to the right.
Choose Reply as linked topic and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it.
That is actually the best method.
Anyone closely watching the Alaska results should cool their jets for a while. It seems that Alaska law restricts the release of this data to a limited set of days. So look for updates on Tuesday (Nov 10), Friday (Nov 13) and Wednesday, Nov 18, which will be the final count before the ranked choice kicks in.
The numbers we have now show Peltola and the real Dan Sullivan so close that it will take second choices from both also-rans to put one of the first two over 50%.
One other thing to consider: the second and third choice data that is available are only from ballots that were from machine-counted ballots. The Alaska election website clearly states that second and third choices from hand counted ballots. Assuming that the source of hand count ballots are remote precincts, the mix of second and third choices might swing more blue (Alaska is reverse of much of the lower 48, where the large metro area of Anchorage is quite red with the state getting bluer as you go to the edges of the state).
I don’t think we have sufficient information to project until the actual results are released on the 18th
copied and massaged a bit from
| Gerald Heikes, GOP | 4,846 | 2.30% |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, Dem | 102,962 | 48.20% |
| Dan Sullivan, GOP Incumbent | 102,325 | 47.90% |
| Daniel Sullivan, Ind | 3,600 | 1.70% |
| Total Votes | 213,733 | |
| Votes to Win | 106,867 | |
| Peltola 2nd Choice needed | 3,905 |
We don’t need the full tabulation of choices to see that it would take second votes from both also-rans with the current totals. Peltola, the front runner needs 3905 second choice votes to get to 50%. Even if she got every single one from Dan the teacher, she would still come up 305 short.
Not much point of that sort of analysis when there are still 25% of the ballots to be counted. The people who are saying Peltola is favoured to win are expecting her to pull past 50% when the outstanding first choice ballots are tallied.
But you’re calculating based only on those votes already reported. There’s tens of thousands of votes not reported to the public and the winner needs 50% of the total. We’ll have a much better idea of the total when the next counts are released on Monday or Tuesday.
I’m hearing prediction markets have Peltola as a 50-1 favorite.
Ever since the last results were released, every pollster/predictor are saying that this leans slightly blue which looks counter intuitive. My favorite statistical predictor (@Gorsnak ) seems to agree.
Mississippi seems more obvious to me from the numbers but everyone is calling it even. Of course, I’m just a random schmuck.