What reasonable doubts do you have regarding his guilt? I can see thinking Jay’s story being suspect, but the basic framework is fairly unimpeachable IMO.
If we are thinking that Adnan is looking really guilty, it seems to me it is mainly because he is so unclear about what happened in that day and has poor explanations when asked. I have to remind myself that this is all based on a timeline and account of events put forth by JAY. We have no real evidence that indeed Hae was killed in this way except that Jay said so. Then we have all these folks that remembered something through the purple haze, after Adnan was arrested. It occurs to me that perhaps the reason Adnan is so fuzzy about details is because HE WASN’T THERE. If he wasn’t there, he can’t know.
I think it’s interesting that he got a bit testy with Sarah when she mentioned that she thought he was a nice guy…he’s heard that for 15 years, but in his thinking, this has gotten him no where. He would like for someone-anyone to have something concrete to put an end to speculation and no matter whether he’s nice or not, prove he didn’t do it.
Again, I do think he more than likely did do it, or was at least critically involved with Jay and they did it together. I’d go with 75% sure that he did it, based on what has been discussed in the show so far. I have purposely not looked up any additional information about the case.
But, these are high school kids that managed to pull this off and there doesn’t seem to be any forensic evidence linking them to this murder (unless we haven’t heard about it yet). Intimate murder by strangling and there is nothing physical linking him to the crime. Nobody saw anything odd in that parking lot. These are not calculated killers no matter what happened, but stupid kids.
There doesn’t seem to be a clear motive; he was a little creepy and possessive, but so was I and a lot of boys at that age. Not seeing why he did it.
And he is largely convicted because of Jay’s story. Jay’s story seems to have a lot of truth to it, but there is no doubt in my mind that Jay’s story is also partially bullshit.
In all likelihood, he got very lucky with the physical evidence, and was more hurt by the breakup than he let on. But, I’m not sure I’d convict. I definitely want to hear more of, or from, Jay. Why did he decide to finger his friend after helping him along the way (if that is what really happened)? Did the host say that she attempted to talk to him or not? Can’t remember. Also, based solely on what Jay admits that he did do for his friend, isn’t he an accessory to murder?
Unless next weeks episode builds on the trend of showing the worst evidence for Adnan last, I’m still just strongly leaning guilty, as I have for most of the series, but not above reasonable doubt threshold.
I want to know whether Adnan’s cellphone shows up on the Leakin Park cell tower on other days.
Right now, the strongest non-testimonial evidence that links him to the crime is that his phone was within cell range of the burial site on the day she went missing. But is there somewhere else he could have been that would still ping that tower? Quite possibly.
I also want to know whether they can actually tell if the call that supposedly went to Adnan’s friend, the one that supports the claim that Adnan was with his phone, actually connected and involved a conversation. Because that girl’s account of things indicates that she didn’t talk to them on this day. She talked to them on some day afterward, when Jay had his porn video shop job.
I’m incredibly unconvinced by any of Cathy’s testimonial evidence about how either of them might have been acting at her house. That’s the kind of memory that’s subject to lots of changes once he gets arrested. A vague memory of mundane uneasiness at the stranger stoner kid in her living room easily morphs into something sinister weeks later.
I’m also having a lot of trouble reconciling the necessary intersection of “Adnan is a masterfully manipulative sociopath, capable of playing the convincing role of innocence for 15 years” with “Adnan is a dumb high school kid who buys a cell phone a few days before committing murder, then carries it with him when he dumps the body”. Sure, the kind of social intelligence required to pull off the first doesn’t necessarily equate to not making boneheaded moves like this, but it’s hard to fit it all together.
I feel like there’s a lot of evidence that sort of is consistent with guilt, but really doesn’t prove anything. The fact that he didn’t call Hae’s phone/pager after her death is certainly fishy, but it really doesn’t prove anything. His explanation, that he heard news through the grapevine, isn’t unreasonable. And if he’s innocent, and he thinks that she did run off, well. She’s got his cell number. He gave it to her the night before. She can call when she’s ready.
Yes and no. Jay’s account of what happened is what helps us tie all the other unimpeachable evidence together into a cohesive story. A story that is not really necessary for conviction, but does help create a more understandable narrative.
What do you mean? We know the approximate time she disappeared, how she was killed, where her body was, etc. Jay’s testimony only bolstered what we know based on outside info.
It’s hard to tell how much of their memory is ex post facto, but I don’t think you can say all of them are lying or mistaken. This a problem in most cases w/o much physical evidence of a crime. Memories are mutable and shaky, but the idea that multiple people had memory failure in a way that implicates Adnan is far fetched.
This makes no sense. Of course he can remember where he was even if he was not at the crime scene and had nothing to do with it. No one has asked him what happened to Hae. They’ve asked where HE was. How can he not have ANY idea given the multiple significant things that happened that day? Especially given he seems to remember everything BUT where he was during the crucial time period. He remembers calling Hae to give him his number the night before. He remembers it’s Stephanie’s birthday. He remembers loaning his car to Jay. He remembers getting a call from Hae’s family and a detective. Yet, he doesn’t remember ANY other details about the day?
This is part of why I don’t think there is a reasonable doubt here. Let’s look at what essentially had to happen for Adnan to be completely innocent.
Unlucky Coincidence #1: He calls Hae three times the night before she disappears, then never bothers to call her again.
Yes, he could have gotten updates from her friends, but there were 5 days that passed between when she disappeared and when they next had school during which he didn’t reach out. There is also weird conflict of him being so insistent on speaking to her the day before that he calls her 3 times (twice after midnight) just to giver her his cell number that he could have given her the next day, yet perfectly fine waiting for updates on her completely falling off the planet from her friends during class.
UC #2: Police happen to find a really damaging note Hae wrote to him about being possessive and not getting over the breakup. A note on which he unfortunately happens to write about killing.
UC #3: He talks to Stephanie, and realizes that day, the day Hae ends up disappearing, how much she wants and expects a present from Jay.
UC #4: He contacts Jay that day, and not only is Jay at home to answer the phone, but Jay has also not gotten Stephanie a present. Additionally, Jay also has no means of getting one for some reason. Why Jay couldn’t have asked Jen, who had a car and free time is not explained. Given Adnan says they were casual friends, why wouldn’t Jay ask his best/better friend Jen for a ride since she gives him a ride later that day?
UC #5: He offers to loan Jay his car and cell phone in order for him to get Stephanie a present on the same day Jay happens to kill or be involved with a murder somehow.
Then Adnan goes about his day: he finishes school that day, goes to the library, then to track practice, then gets picked up by Jay. He is completely unaware anything criminal has gone on.
UC #4: Jay, sometime before 3:15, abducts and/or kills Hae. How he manages to do this is in question given she has no reason or desire to be alone with Jay, but it somehow happens. Additionally, he completes this act during the narrow time window he has Adnan’s car and phone. He also either buys a present during this time, or tells Adnan he bought a present during this time.
UC #5: Jay, likely with the help of an unknown accomplice, manages to move Adnan’s car and Hae’s body. Then he goes back to pick up Adnan at practice.
UC #6: Jay concocts this idea to frame Adnan that afternoon. He tells Jenn Adnan killed Hae that day. He does this without knowing whether Adnan had a rock solid alibi; something he should probably assume to be the case given he was participating in group activities in a public place during the time Jay is off killing Hae.
UC #7: During the time Jay has his phone, Jay accidentally butt dials a friend of Adnan’s, stays on the phone for 2 minutes, but doesn’t converse with anyone on the other end.
UC #8: Adnan goes to smoke weed that evening with Jay and others as usual. For some reason, others there note his odd behavior. He also ends up getting a call from the cops about Hae but he thinks it’s no big deal despite the fact that her parents are so worried that they contact the police.
UC #9: Later that day, both Jay and Adnan are together near Leakin Park where Hae is/will be buried. We know this because of the cell records. We also know Hae was likely buried that day because there was an ice storm the following 2 days. So Jay commits the crime, buries Hae, then take Adnan back to the scene later that evening unbeknownst to Adnan.
There is more but I will stop there. Do you honestly think ALL or even most of those things make more sense than Adnan killing her?
Things I’ve learned from Serial:
If you’re going to murder your ex-girlfriend, don’t ask your stoner friend to help. Just do it by yourself.
When burying the body in Leakin Park, dig the grave deeper than six inches and a bit further into the woods. The body could stay hidden for ages.
Don’t make a bunch of pointless phonecalls to people, that allow the location of your cell phone to be traced.
Also, don’t kill your ex-girlfriend. Now she’s dead, you’re in prison, and a bunch of people’s lives are messed up. No one benefits and you’ve caused a ton of meaningless destruction and self-destruction. If a girl breaks up with you, just get over it and get on with your life.
Like I said before, there is no mystery here with regards to Adnan. He did it. Everything so far reinforces that fact. It’s kind of baffling to me how anyone could possibly think otherwise with all the information that’s been presented so far.
The only “mystery” left is exactly how involved Jay was in the actual killing. I’m thinking Jay cut a deal of some sort and that’s the only reason he wasn’t locked up with Adnan.
I agree. Does anyone know how many episodes there are? I keep thinking they’re going to reveal something that changes this story, but no.
The rumor is there will be 12 or 13 episodes, but the story seems to be evolving as we speak, so maybe there will be more.
So much thought is going into the posts. I’m hoping there is more information to come. I keep throwing out other possibilities because everything they have given us so far makes Adnan look guilty, and I can’t help but think it shouldn’t be that easy. There has to be more to this for them to go on for six or seven more podcasts, but they end up convicting Adnan anyway…
I agree that Jay probably made a plea deal. What does everyone think the reason is we haven’t heard from him yet? Is he in jail, gone and unable to be found? Dead? Or have they just not played his interview yet to keep us guessing?
Or less.
My money is on less. There’s very little left to really explore or discuss. No idea how they could drag this out another 7 episodes let alone more.
Adnan’s had plenty of time to accept his fate. That’s why he can afford to be glib and wax phylosophically in his interviews over the prison phone. He sounds like he mentally distanced himself from the crime. Perhaps it’s a coping mechanism. Afterall, 15 years is a long time come to terms with the fact you’ll spend the rest of your life in prison. That’s a long time to struggle with your conscience, if you had one.
It’s my understanding that Jay did two years as an accessory to the crime. Not clear to me where he is now.
Jay didn’t seve any jail time. Although you should probably spoiler this in the future if it hasn’t been discussed on the podcast yet.
Spot on, brickbacon. Sarah Koenig dodges asking many pertinent questions. What I find gripping about the series is trying to figure out whether SK is just plain simple minded, thinks little of her listeners and is milking the case for the drama, or will yet pull a Columbo. Some of TAL’s credibility is riding on this, IMHO.
For example, when she goes on such a giggly tangent on the streaker, a very real person who didn’t deserve to be displayed in Ms Koenig’s high-school diorama, you have to wonder if she is putting a show on.
Finally, asking people to incriminate a murderer who is very much still alive and may still get out of jail in time to settle scores. Is that a good idea?
The voyeuristic aspect of the whole project is starting to bug me a bit. Adnan is one thing, he’s basically asking for the attention, but it seems like everyone’s personal life is up for grabs. I wonder how cool Hae would be about having her diary read out loud on the air, even if it is fifteen years after her death. Or how cool her family is with it.
The most interesting thing for me about the podcast at this point is, I guess, the epistemological side of it, just how hard or even impossible it is to put together a completely coherent narrative of exactly how the day of the murder went. A lot of it has to do with Jay’s tendency to bullshit, obviously. Also, just with how people’s memories work. Like the girl who claims Adnan was speaking to someone on the phone, sounding panicked, when he was high in her apartment. Adnan claims that her story doesn’t hold up, since it leaves a third hypothetical person on the phone, who also knew about the murder, and that it would make more sense for him to have that conversation with Jay. I think it’s entirely possible that he was speaking with Jay, and the girl misremembers it as a phonecall. Especially since everyone was apparently smoking it up at the time. That probably doesn’t help with any kind of exact recollection of events.
Has anyone else listened to Episode 7: The Opposite of the Prosecution yet? Koenig talks with Deirdre Enright, the head investigator of The Innocence Project, and Enright seems to find that it’s a case that could be pursued. I thought it was an interesting episode, especially after last week making it seem more like Adnan was guilty, and this episode making it seem more possible that he’s innocent. I’ve wavered back and forth on whether I think Adnan was actually the murderer, but from everything it seems like the case against him wasn’t strong.
I can’t wait until the next episode, because it sounds like there will be more about Jay then, though I don’t know if she’s talking to Jay or not.
The teaser for next week has me very excited (re: Jay).
There’s a meta podcast from Slate called The Serial Spoiler podcast where they discuss each episode and talk about how they’r feeling about the case as it progresses (much like this thread). They make a lot of good points about the difference between a story written to be a mystery and real life. How we’re listening to it as a bit of a mystery and there are storytelling devices being used to help that - but at the same time it’s actual reporting and it’s constrained by the facts of the case.
For example they talk about how in a mystery story the author may put a red herring in to fool readers a bit, but in real life there aren’t any red herrings. Things are either important or they’re not - but she’s using some of these non-important bits to help the story along.
I think the tell on whether or not something matters is whether or not she uses their real name. If the name is changed or not mentioned, you can assume it’s not going to end up being very important.
Just listened to that one. That lawyer and her team articulated some what I’ve been feeling, that the prosecution’s case just wasn’t fully there. His guilt doesn’t feel proven to me.
I’m still where I was a couple of weeks ago. The motive doesn’t work for me and the timeline doesn’t work for me. I’ve not delved deep or tried hard to make it work or to come up with an alternate timeline that might be more convincing. I am looking forward to next week.
Enright did make some interesting points. The big one for me, I think, was that it’s just too unlikely that Adnan is a calculating sociopath, because they’re so rare. Most people are either innocent or stupid.
Also, that if someone is innocent, they’re not helpful. If they really weren’t involved, they have nothing to give you crack the case, pretty much by definition. Adnan not remembering the day of the murder, and being unable to explain odd things like the Nisha call, is just normal. It’s not proof of anything.
I was never really on board with the idea that getting a call from the police about Hae being missing would make that day important to him, and because of that he would somehow recall the rest of the day. I once got a phone call one evening informing me that my girlfriend was in the hospital in a possibly bad condition (it actually turned out to be nothing serious, so don’t worry). Yeah, I remember that phone call. I also remember seeing her after I rushed to the hospital. However, that is literally everything I remember about that day. I guess I was probably at work. At this point, I’m not even sure what day of the week it was. If anything, an event like that might overshadow everything else and make the rest of the day seem like more of a blur. Of course, I was never accused later of poisoning her tea or anything, but if I had been, I might not have been very helpful in accounting for my whereabouts.
One thing that Enright didn’t mention at all, though, unless I missed it, was Jay’s story, which I found a bit strange, since it’s still very much the key to the case. Sure, you can speculate about serial killers or nutjobs with histories of murdering Asian women. But why would that kind of random killer be in cahoots with Jay?
So, yeah, looking forward to next week.