Arnold, I think you’ve got it figured out! We’ll see in July.
Except that those two statements contradict each other. There has to be some discretionary element in choosing the Prefects, and the faculty undoubtly base it on things other than grades (though grades are presumably one of the factors).
There’s no absolute evidence that Harry is not the second-best student in the school, but then, there’s no evidence that he is, either. And just speaking statistically, it’s far more likely that he’s not. We do know that Hermione is the best in their year overall, and that Harry is best in DatDA, and doing pretty well overall, but we have seen several other students who are doing well, too, plus there are probably several other good students who just don’t interact much with Harry. Who’s to say that Hannah Abbot isn’t doing better than Harry, or Unnamed Ravenclaw #17? Or even Draco Malfoy?
This seems as good a place as any for my theories.
I’m on the following Snape-boats: he loved Lilly, making that memory his worst because he was so mortified in front of her, because it was a turning point in her affections for Potter. She pitied him, tried to fight his battles, and he felt that she saw him as weak. Everyone probably saw him as weak; they wouldn’t have bullied someone they feared. So he repudiates her, and then he betrays her, but considering Voldy wasn’t particularly concerned with killing Lilly he might well have spared her out of Snape’s sentiment if she had just gotten out of the way. With Potter out of the way, he could have protected Lily, especially considering if the prophecy held true as he knew it all boundaries to Voldemort’s ascendance could be swept away. He wouldn’t be a symbol of pathetic weakness to her anymore: he would protect her, keep her alive, and she would be so grateful.
Snape being capable of love would be a sign to Dumbledore, don’t you think? He sure has a lot to say about James, but I don’t remember him ever saying anything about Lilly… an odd omission.
I also think that either Ginny is going to sacrifice herself for Harry or vice versa in a parallel of Lilly’s sacrifice. With the horcruxes gone, the AK will deflect again and V will die screaming “OMGWTFBBQ”. 
All right, Humble Servant and Chronos, I agree that it is very possible that Harry Potter is not near the top of his year. I don’t really have a strong opinion on it.
Well, we know in Harry’s case that he was supposed to be a prefect, but Dumbledore didn’t want him to have to talk on still another responsibility. Which would show that a) the best student is usually made prefect, and b) that of course it is not guaranteed.
Thank you, but my guesses rarely turn out to be right. We’ll see. I can always think up another theory!
I thought grades were one consideration of several. Certainly Ron couldn’t have gotten his badge based on grades (I thought that he was chosen based on being Harry’s best friend, as sort of a stand-in for Harry. This would have made an interesting subplot if Rowling had developed it more, since it would have played up Ron’s lingering resentment about being the guy who hangs around with Harry). There seems to be some leadership component to the qualifications, as well as some intangible character aspects.
Here’s a question: Who were the Gryffindor prefects in Harry’s fourth year?
Funny about this. When I started reading book 5, I couldn’t believe that Harry or anyone was even considering that he would get prefect. Not because he’s not a stand-up guy or anything, but because I saw one of the major responsibilities of prefects as acting as helpers to the teachers. Like when the troll showed up in book 1, it was the prefects who got everyone back to the dorms. I assumed that since any serious trouble that happened was likely to require Mr. Potter’s presence, it would be pretty dumb of Dumbledore to put the target in charge of getting everyone else to safety. But everyone in the book acted so shocked about it, and even Dumbledore crying about it at the end…I found it baffling.
I think we might be over thinking this. What if the explanation is much more simple?
Harassing muggles and muggle borns is one thing. But planning to kill a pure blood from a prominent wizarding family and a baby (three pure bloods and two babies if you count the Longbottoms). Maybe that was just too much for Snape. If pure bloods and babies aren’t safe, who would be?
Maybe that is just the straw that broke the camel’s back. It had nothing to do with who the intended victims were specifically, just what they were.
Of course, that might explain why he changed sides, but it really doesn’t explain why Dumbledore trusts him.
This is something I’ve wondered about, too, and it got me to thinking that maybe everyone has had Voldemort wrong all this time. All the characters assume that he wants to take over the wizarding world, but nothing he does really seems to point in that direction. Random killings? Terrorizing civilians? Those are the actions of a man who just wants to create chaos. So maybe Snape found out that Voldemort’s true goal is simply the destruction of everything, and the Death Eaters are pawns toward that end.
Why not?
Good one. I don’t know how the prefect system usually works in the UK, but I imagined that every year two students in their fifth year from each House are chosen as prefects, continue on with the prefect duties in the 6th year, and then in the seventh year there is a Head Boy or Head Girl? So at any time there are 4 prefects per House?
I think it’s because there is a lot of importance placed on school issues, which is hard for adult (especially american) readers to relate to. Who really cares about a House competition? Does it matter who wins the Quidditch cup? etc. For a teenager, being made a prefect would be a big deal, and people who well remember their school years or are teachers would understand that better.
Severus Snape might have left Voldemort’s followers when learning that Voldemort was planning on killing someone - a Regulus Black type of defection? Maybe, but then what did Snape think was the cause of all those disappearances that must have been happening before or around the time he joined the Death Eaters?
I don’t think Voldemort wants to destroy the whole wizard world, he just wants to make sure that all powerful wizards become Death Eaters, and as far as the Muggle world is concerned, my thought is that he wants to secretely control them by pulling invisible strings attached to the people in power.
I understand *that *it’s a big deal, I just couldn’t figure out why anyone would entertain the thought of making Harry prefect for even a second, given his target numero uno status. And Harry has a real complex about putting people in danger; you’d think he’d be relieved not to be prefect, since that means he’d be able to keep people safer by not being in charge of them.
Does he really strike you as a secretly controlling type of a guy, though? If he hates Muggles so much, why would he care if he’s controlling them or not? He’s already unleashed the Dementors and some giants on them, not caring if the Ministry can mop up the mess or not. He’s got more of a hold on the Ministry itself, though (or did, anyway), but I figured that was just a means to an end. Why would he want to pull any strings? He would secretly control all the most powerful wizards so that he can…continue to secretly control them? You’d think that with an ego his size he would plan to come out eventually. “Behold, I am Master of all,” yadda yadda. But he never talks about that in our hearing. Just about how he’s going to live forever and the DEs will share the glory.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that the DEs are getting taken for a ride. Teacher’s favorite or no, I bet poor orphan weirdo Tom was treated none too kindly by the best families of Slytherin–that’s why his gang was such a collection of losers. What a glorious revenge it would be on the Slytherins to use their own prejudices against them to start a gang that’s going to rip the wizarding world apart and expose them to the Muggles and get all the best Slytherins killed in the process…all the other killing would be just a bonus.
But to try to keep on topic: I agree that it probably wasn’t Regulus Black’s killing that drove Snape to defect, unless *maybe *Regulus tried to act outwardly super-loyal to the end, so that his killing would appear to Snape to be over nothing at all. Then he might figure that if even the most loyal DEs aren’t safe, then there is no way to be safe as a DE, and he may as well take his chances with Dumbledore. But this is pretty wild and wooly speculation.
I see what you’re saying about Harry / prefect job, but it still has to sting a little, seeing how Harry would be thinking that he deserves the honour of being prefect, even if he doesn’t want the work.
Tom Riddle Jr’s plans - who knows what he really wants. I don’t think he cares what the Muggles do, as long as they don’t bother wizards. That’s what I meant by “controlling” them - making sure they don’t interfere in the wizard world. He wants to secrely control the people in charge in the Muggle world. In the wizard world, he wants to be obeyed and feared, but he’s not into the nuts and bolts of running a Wizard government. Of course, it could well be that he just kills and tortures for the hell of it with no master plan, but that sounds like something too random for someone of Voldemort’s intelligence, even if he is a psychopath.
Another thing I said badly - “Severus Snape might have left Voldemort’s followers when learning that Voldemort was planning on killing someone - a Regulus Black type of defection?” That was supposed to mean: I think that Regulus Black defected when he saw that Tom Riddle Jr. was interested in more than keeping the wizarding world “pure” - he was also interested in killing / torture etc. (This idea comes from something Sirius says to Harry Potter about the Black family in Order of the Phoenix) Leaving because you disapprove of murdering / torturing other wizards would be a “Regulus Black type of defection”. Snape, on the other hand, must have become a turncoat for other reasons - by the time he learned of the prophecy and told some of it to Voldemort, I imagine that there were already many unexplained deaths and disappearances caused by the Death Eaters and Snape would have known this.
Come to think of it, Voldemort’s motivations are almost totally undefned. He’s a sort of combo serial-killer-slash-Hitler. He keeps chasing asfter power, but doesn’t really seem to want to do anything with it. Plus, he actually goes about ti in a very odd way. Remember, he could have been Minister of Magic if he wanted that with just some time and his contacts, and if he wanted to make a dramatic political entrance after making himself immortal he could probably have done that. So he probably doesn’t cre about the Ministry per se.