Further radicalization and the spread of a “Holy War” against the U.S. and its allies? Well, that’s certainly what ObL was ( and I imagine, is ) hoping for. The danger exists, yes. But I haven’t seen any signs that this process is seriously underway. There has been a great deal of distress over the attacks in Afghanistan, but there aren’t seen many signs that ObL’s ideology is gaining wide credence across the larger Muslim world. Indeed even some other pre-existing terrorist organizations, such as some of the Lebanese and Palestinian groups, are being careful to distance themselves from ObL’s ranting.
I agree that this is something to watch out for and attempt to pre-empt with counter-propaganda and careful political maneouvering. But I’m not convinced it is inevitable, or even likely. Rather, it’s one of a constellation of possibilities. My best guess is, is that some ( as has happened in Pakistan ) will be motivated to take up arms, but it will continue to be a small minority of most societies, unless some HUGE blunder is committed ( say if ObL hid out in Mecca and we decided to bomb it ).
I do think moving on Iraq, without clear evidence of involvement in this disaster, would be a propaganda mistake.
Well put, but for the sake of devil’s advocacy, have we done this? IOW, are we now, more than at any point in history, closer to reducing our differences? Or is Huntington the new Nostradamus and we’re heading right into the ultimate clash of civilizations?
Huntington? Is that the fellow under discussion in another thread, the one that labels “Islam” as a singular civilization?
If so, I think he’s an idiot ( or to be a little more charitable, misinformed ) and give little credence to his mutterings ( not too big on Nostradamus either, to be honest - not a widely accepted authority on this board ).
And I wonder, as much as I hate them, are there any cites that would back you up in your convictions? Haven’t the death tolls through conflict actually risen in the past century?
They’ve risen enormously with population and modern methods of warfare and extermination. And I have no cites ( at least at the moment ). At this point it is less GD, than IMHO.
Europe is certainly more secure than it has been. Latin America, with certain exceptions, seems more secure. Asia is a mixed bag, but I see glimmers of hope. Sub-Saharan Africa is a horrible mess, but we do have some progress in the south, however painful. The Middle-East continues to be troubled.
But I just have a sense that the expansion of communication in the last couple of decades and some political developments are a step in the right direction. I think people are just a little less ignorant of other societies than they were 50 years ago. And I don’t see the world as any bloodier than it was in the seventies. Rather less, in some respects ( and in some areas ). And the end ( or at least winding down ) of the Cold War and its associated proxy struggles can only be a good thing.
I continue to remain guardedly optimistic. But I can’t back my statement up any better at the moment, though I’ll think some more on it.
- Tamerlane