Trump is not smart. Schumer is playing 2D chess.
Trump didn’t want a shutdown, because it would make him look bad and he doesn’t like looking bad. But if a shutdown occurred, he would respond vindictively. Because that’s what he does. “You hurt me? I hurt you.” Pretty simple really. So yeah, there would be accelerated firings of people he didn’t like, and slow or nonexistent rehirings of them when the shutdown ended. Then the courts weigh in.
Schumer started off by opposing the CR, not making clear that he was going to avoid filibustering it, because the media isn’t detail oriented and that used to work. Then he dropped that strategy, made public statements on TV, wrote an OpEd piece for the NY Times, and voted with cloture giving the GOP votes to spare. Afterwards he didn’t duck and cover, but showed up on The View. He’s put Booker in charge of social media. So Schumer pivoted from an old playbook to a newer but not especially out-of-the-box playbook.
The missing piece here is how Republican Senators would have responded to making modest demands. If they turned them down quickly, that might have been a decent maneuver by an opposing party whose role is to highlight the GOP’s contempt for America. If the GOP Senate thirsted for extended shutdown, then the Dems would have screwed themselves.
There’s nothing 4D about this. It’s all 2D. 4D would be stepping back and acting in such ways that forces the opposition to respond. I haven’t seen a lot of that by the Dems. I have seen thinking 2 steps ahead.
I don’t cast too much blame on Dem Congress though. I think liberals have failed harder, spending too much time on twitter and Bluesky and not enough with Indivisible. Also, Fox News has attacked the country since the Iraq War. It’s a foreign controlled business which others half of the country. Other nations don’t put up with this crap, but the US somehow did. Recall that subscribing to cable means supporting Fox News in a big way even if you never watch it.
ETA: In terms of skill, I might place Schumer above Kevin McCartney and below Pelosi, Jeffries, Mitch McConnell, and Mike Johnson.