And, presumably, among the rest of the Democratic senators; most of whom seem to feel that it was a bad idea.
No. Sometimes there are no good choices, and you have to pick a bad one.
Unless we hold the Democractic leadership to be infallible, that doesn’t prove anything.
How is that relevant exactly? I haven’t made up my mind one way or the other entirely. I am not a senator. So I have that luxury.
I am genuinely curious as to why you praise Schumer so highly. Arguing that he made the best decision possible in a no win situation is one thing. Arguing that he made a good decision is another. Saying he is playing “political 4D chess” is quite another.
I have little faith in the Democratic leadership at this point. I certainly don’t have enouggh trust in them to believe that it is part of some elaborate long term plan when they do something that may be a huge mistake.
True.
But in this case, the Democrats really get to pick two.
For FY2025, they have picked the option where they get to sue Trump for having violated the Impoundment Control Act.
Then starting in October, Senate Democrats have the option of forcing a shutdown, in which case they get to sue Trump for violating the Antideficiency Act, since he is sure to have favorite agencies that he illegally keeps open during a shutdown.
…which they could have done last week, except that now nobody believes that Schumer won’t just cave again so Republicans are going to treat it as an empty threat.
I do not understand. What kind of threat?
Perhaps some think Trump truthfully doesn’t want a shutdown, so a credible threat there, or the fact of an ongoing shutdown, would move him.
I think a shutdown is in his legal interest, but he probably does not care, since he intends to act as a dictator regardless.
The threat of a shutdown. Nobody believes Schumer is going to find a spine between now and September, and the takeaway Republicans have from the events of last week is “we can put anything we want in a CR and Schumer will let us have it”.
That’s no threat.
I just found a thorough substack amplifying what I’ve been saying here on my own.
I’d forgotten that even Trump 45 kept national parks open during a shutdown – and got away with it. And I hadn’t known that after the 90th shutdown day, they can permanently fire staff — although Musk knows.
See:
How a Shutdown Could Empower Trump
My link shows that it’s not just Trump and Musk – there have been Project 2025-type shutdown plans for years.
I had been wondering if my claim here, that no one would have standing to sue the administration, for shutdown overreach,was maybe too creative. But this article shows legal experts agreeing. Shutdown takes off the last guardrails.
And yet you said
So which is it? Can they threaten a shutdown or can’t they?
If Trump wanted a shutdown he could have caused one easily by telling Republicans to vote no. Why did he press Republicans so hard to pass a CR if a shutdown would give him everything he wants with no downside as Schumer claims?
Because he and Republicans know they’ll be the ones who take the heat for it.
Yes they can. Eight or so Democratic senators are enough to hand Trump a shutdown on October 1. Does that address your question?
There were two Trump 45 shutdowns, so DJT expects it is coming.
No one can be sure that a Project 2025-style shutdown would be popular, so MAGA set up the possibility of blaming Democrats by saying he really wanted a CR.
Did you see this in the substack?
Read the substack to see the shutdown significance of Trump now having a more compliant Attorney General.
Yes, if there is heat.
What Trump thinks is rarely in alignment with the actual facts. The idea that a shutdown would increase his power is laughable. Moreover, refusing to use the filibuster just signals to Congressional Republicans that they can do whatever they want. What is Schumer gonna do when the next CR has a national abortion ban attached to it?
We’re already at the “torching cars in the middle of the street” phase of civil unrest. There will be heat and it will hurt Trump a lot more than it helps him.
The fact that Trump has openly rejected any court “orders” means they have stopped functioning as orders at all, and he can just pick and choose what he complies with up until there actually are consequences. Apparently Schumer is betting on consequences eventually coming from the courts?
Besides the fact that this is the mindset of a battered housewife, I don’t even really think it’s true. Trump started all the court order defiance by slow-walking one or two court orders and waiting to see what happened. After SCOTUS stepped in and introduced a further delay on one of the USAID court orders, DOGE started moving faster and attacking more agencies simultaneously. And after any consequences for noncompliance with those orders has still not materialized and he’s got his budget passed, administration officials that had nothing to do with DOGE have openly declaring their defiance to court orders.
It sure seems from a distance like Trump has become more brazen as he has gotten more green lights.
Now I don’t think a shutdown would singlehandedly stop all of Trump’s authoritarianism, and of course there’s always the most extreme option where he simply orders the treasury to ignore the shutdown and manage the budget directly without any say so from congress, court intervention be damned. Barring that extreme, Trump would need a lot of the government functions he wants to continue working without pay, and that isn’t going to go great forever. The deportation side of his agenda is a government expansion, not a contraction and he needs to fund it in order for it to continue.
Today’s Economist poll, conducted from Sun-Tue, puts Schumer’s approval/disapproval rating at 22% approve, 55% disapprove.
That makes him less popular than Trump, Vance, Mike Johnson, Netenyahu, and even Elon Musk.
The sad part is I doubt he cares. I am willing to bet he is confident he will be re-elected no matter what. At worst, he does not get re-elected but has lots of rich friends who owe him one.
He will have an excellent retirement.
Schumer sure as shit does not care about you or me.
Of course not. He literally has an imaginary constituency that he says he works for.
I’ve documented that this is the plan. They did it in Trump 45, just not for the length of time now planned.
As for court intervention, what is the legal theory here? The shutdown rules are mostly coming from an old Attorney General letter that Bondi would have every reason to change if that was even necessary. And it isn’t necessary, because if the Justice Department ignores shutdown rules, there is no one to enforce them.
Here’s the Claremont Institute plan for that:
That’s weak. Trump would have to order everyone doing the government functions they want to continue to be paid, rather than relying on complex and uncertain maneuvers. But we do know they are thinking about this problem. And everything I know about the Project 2025 MAGA mentality tells me they would come up with more ideas. As for SCOTUS ruling that the Treasury should stop paying employees for work already done, I find this unlikely. Who has standing?
Because it certainly wasnt just Schumer making a mistake.
True.
Name 20?
But yeah some Dems were unhappy-
One of his harshest attacks came from Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., who called for Schumer to step down. (who is not a Senator, note)
Jeffries and other top House Democrats urged Senate Democrats to oppose the spending bill.
Pretty sure your cite is talking about spending the money from previous budgets while you still have access to it.
I mean yeah, it’s going to come down to if the treasury would just unilaterally raise and spend money at Trump’s will. One thing that would hopefully be a check on that is that would degrade America’s credit and Trump would have a tough time finding creditors. But either way if they’re going to do that they’re going to disregard everything and it’s basically a moot point.
As a matter of logic, no. Trump is testing the court system. He’s lost a lot of cases, but outright rejection of court orders only began last weekend. I started a thread which tracks this issue.
No, it would accelerate it. DOGE’s illegalities would now be legal and worse once the shutdown ends, he could slow walk the rehirings.
Again, I think Schumer could have done more (debatable) and I don’t see the kind of aggressive response than McConnell delivered to Obama (undeniable I think). But the risks denying cloture were very real.
He started not following court orders weeks ago with the USAID rulings. The thing that’s new with the deportation rulings is that officials are coming out and saying they’re rejecting them instead of the neverending slow-walk that never results in compliance.
I would love for a judge to prove me wrong and jail a Trump official for contempt but I’m not holding my breath.
Considerably more than 20 of them voted against it.
I have no way of knowing who was shouting what behind closed doors.